I mean really. Have we reached peak solar?
No.
Why?
We are getting better at it.
Polywell and Peak Oil
"PEAK OIL DOES NOT MEAN WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF OIL, ONLY THAT PRODUCTION WILL"
Extremely true and thanks MSimon for clarifying my point. The price of oil if politically unshackled would be extremely cheap. $20 bbl? Probably not but my original post had the intent of saying there is still so much potential supply of oil that is available now at less than easy, light sweet crude price that it is pure speculation at best when a peak will ever occur at current prices. Especially when you consider the quickening pace of recovery technology which is growing as fast as the current price rise.
JoeDead, one ace up your sleeve is the extreme economic growth rates of China, India, and Russia along with their current strain on oil consumption. As the 2nd and third third world claws its way into the 21st century, oil consumption will be extreme in two decades. However, I would counter that Russia is currently executing a mad dash on the remaining known and speculative oil fields like the north pole and other places, further giving rise to even more production over the next 25 years. I'm convinced the latest war in Georgia is a perfect example. Part of its purpose is to strangle hold the west, especially Europe. The USA better get its head out of its you know what and start selling oil to our allies before Russia's new cartel extorts them like the Saudis and Venezuelians extort us. Meanwhile, our politicians might still be bickering about everything from polar bears and caribou to excuses like "it will take too long to do any good anyway."
The absolute trump card in this entire scenario however, is a disruptive technology like BFR's and pure electric cars. Not to mention, CNT wires to deliver the currents at even cheaper prices. I'm crossing my fingers but if I were king of the world, I'd hedge my bet on drilling for now.
BS
Extremely true and thanks MSimon for clarifying my point. The price of oil if politically unshackled would be extremely cheap. $20 bbl? Probably not but my original post had the intent of saying there is still so much potential supply of oil that is available now at less than easy, light sweet crude price that it is pure speculation at best when a peak will ever occur at current prices. Especially when you consider the quickening pace of recovery technology which is growing as fast as the current price rise.
JoeDead, one ace up your sleeve is the extreme economic growth rates of China, India, and Russia along with their current strain on oil consumption. As the 2nd and third third world claws its way into the 21st century, oil consumption will be extreme in two decades. However, I would counter that Russia is currently executing a mad dash on the remaining known and speculative oil fields like the north pole and other places, further giving rise to even more production over the next 25 years. I'm convinced the latest war in Georgia is a perfect example. Part of its purpose is to strangle hold the west, especially Europe. The USA better get its head out of its you know what and start selling oil to our allies before Russia's new cartel extorts them like the Saudis and Venezuelians extort us. Meanwhile, our politicians might still be bickering about everything from polar bears and caribou to excuses like "it will take too long to do any good anyway."
The absolute trump card in this entire scenario however, is a disruptive technology like BFR's and pure electric cars. Not to mention, CNT wires to deliver the currents at even cheaper prices. I'm crossing my fingers but if I were king of the world, I'd hedge my bet on drilling for now.
BS
BSPhysics wrote:...the quickening pace of recovery technology...
Don't even talk to me about the pace of oilfield engineering. When I was doing well test analysis in western Canada, I came across an incident in which a small device (a pressure gauge IIRC) blew up in a guy's face. They redesigned the thing and had a replacement manufactured, shipped to the well site, and installed within 48 hours. When this much money is on the line, things happen.
Great point. I definately agree.So easy depends a lot on technology. And politics. Solving the technology problem is a lot easier than solving the political problem. We have about 1/2 the world throwing up their hands and saying "What's the use? We are doomed." I find that answer unacceptable.
So.....
Anyone think polywell fusion will be something that will help make doomsday senario people eat their words?
Hey Joe, we found something to agree on! 
I read Kurzweil's "The Singularity is Near" a few years ago and was blown away. His internet videos are great, too. I'm not sure how qualified I am to judge is point of view but he sure is convincing.
What I find interesting about him on energy is that he believes that solar is the way to go and views fusion as a fantasy. I wonder if he is aware of Dr. Bussard and his work. I would be interested in seeing Ray's take on the future if BFR economies begin soon.
BS
I read Kurzweil's "The Singularity is Near" a few years ago and was blown away. His internet videos are great, too. I'm not sure how qualified I am to judge is point of view but he sure is convincing.What I find interesting about him on energy is that he believes that solar is the way to go and views fusion as a fantasy. I wonder if he is aware of Dr. Bussard and his work. I would be interested in seeing Ray's take on the future if BFR economies begin soon.
BS
werd. I'm no where near qualified to judge his predictions, but I still find him amazing!Hey Joe, we found something to agree on! I read Kurzweil's "The Singularity is Near" a few years ago and was blown away. His internet videos are great, too. I'm not sure how qualified I am to judge is point of view but he sure is convincing.
BS
seems to be an interesting mish-mash of people here on this forum.
I don't believe that unless we have reached half of known reserves we are at a permanent peak. When supply goes down and demand goes up prices rise, when prices rise profits for investors soar, when profits for investors soar evermore capital gets invested.
If light sweet crude really has peaked and goes into rapid decline, I would predict a lag time of 3-5 years of global recession, where oil prices go vertical and expansion into heavier harder to reach reserves occurs with unprecedented rapidity. I would also expect refineries of the world to rapidly ugrade themselves to modify the heavier stuff. CO2 emmissions will go up for no increase in utility justy because the new heavy stuff will be harder to extract. An after that timeframe prices will start to go down and production will increase for anorther few decades.
I'm hoping in the intervening 3-5 years people will start buying electric cars out of desparation. They're a little worse then normal cars at the moment. The G-wiz is a 4 seater with a fifty mile range and a top speed of 50 mph, it costs about $20,000. That's available on the market right now, no futuristic "breakthroughs" required.
http://www.goingreen.co.uk/store/product_list/68/
Another vehicle already available is the TWIKE
http://www.twike.co.uk/index.html
Drive it slowly over flat ground and they claim 125 mile range and 53 mph
top speed its a 2 seater rather than a 4 seater though. These vehicles are available for purchase NOW, all that is required is for increased fuel prices to makes consumers on balance decide to compromise on range and speed.
I won't bore you with a list of reams and of futuristic electric cars that are coming out in a few years time.
I'm hoping that in as little as 3-5 years the massive increase in demand for EV's will bring them down the learning curve so that by the time oil prices increase again EVs will be ahead of normal cars and competitive even in an environment of lower oil prices.
At the end of the day if you could replace
If light sweet crude really has peaked and goes into rapid decline, I would predict a lag time of 3-5 years of global recession, where oil prices go vertical and expansion into heavier harder to reach reserves occurs with unprecedented rapidity. I would also expect refineries of the world to rapidly ugrade themselves to modify the heavier stuff. CO2 emmissions will go up for no increase in utility justy because the new heavy stuff will be harder to extract. An after that timeframe prices will start to go down and production will increase for anorther few decades.
I'm hoping in the intervening 3-5 years people will start buying electric cars out of desparation. They're a little worse then normal cars at the moment. The G-wiz is a 4 seater with a fifty mile range and a top speed of 50 mph, it costs about $20,000. That's available on the market right now, no futuristic "breakthroughs" required.
http://www.goingreen.co.uk/store/product_list/68/
Another vehicle already available is the TWIKE
http://www.twike.co.uk/index.html
Drive it slowly over flat ground and they claim 125 mile range and 53 mph
top speed its a 2 seater rather than a 4 seater though. These vehicles are available for purchase NOW, all that is required is for increased fuel prices to makes consumers on balance decide to compromise on range and speed.
I won't bore you with a list of reams and of futuristic electric cars that are coming out in a few years time.
I'm hoping that in as little as 3-5 years the massive increase in demand for EV's will bring them down the learning curve so that by the time oil prices increase again EVs will be ahead of normal cars and competitive even in an environment of lower oil prices.
At the end of the day if you could replace
jmc,
It's also looking more and more like we're going to follow the Brazilian model in mandating flex-fuel (the Gang of Ten deal has a provision relating to this), and there are a ton of companies trying to make fuel economically with algae farms, switchgrass, Miscanthus Giganticus, waste biomass, and coal>methanol, in addition to the skyrocketing corn ethanol production.
It may already be too late for that; even if production of LSC falls 10% a year, substitutes are coming online quite fast. The market is expecting $100+ prices indefinitely now, meaning all the $50/bbl tar sands and oil shale are now in play. Refineries are already being built (China just inked a huge deal with Venezuela).If light sweet crude really has peaked and goes into rapid decline, I would predict a lag time of 3-5 years of global recession, where oil prices go vertical and expansion into heavier harder to reach reserves occurs with unprecedented rapidity.
It's also looking more and more like we're going to follow the Brazilian model in mandating flex-fuel (the Gang of Ten deal has a provision relating to this), and there are a ton of companies trying to make fuel economically with algae farms, switchgrass, Miscanthus Giganticus, waste biomass, and coal>methanol, in addition to the skyrocketing corn ethanol production.
The Singularity is Near might be the most important book of our lifetimes, if he's even close to right. The implications of continued accelerating technological growth are staggering.Any Ray Kurzweil fans out there? Getting off topic, but what the hell.
An article highlighting the political hurdles to drilling and production, specifically ANWR but others, also.
http://www.reason.com/news/show/128096.html
BS
http://www.reason.com/news/show/128096.html
BS
When I was in the Telecom industry in the 90's and up to '02 I would have been strung up by my thumbs for taking 48 hours to fix a problem as small as an inadequately designed pressure gauge.93143 wrote:BSPhysics wrote:...the quickening pace of recovery technology...
Don't even talk to me about the pace of oilfield engineering. When I was doing well test analysis in western Canada, I came across an incident in which a small device (a pressure gauge IIRC) blew up in a guy's face. They redesigned the thing and had a replacement manufactured, shipped to the well site, and installed within 48 hours. When this much money is on the line, things happen.
Especially when safety was also involved.
I do give you credit for the remote site. I was doing it in the city which speeds things considerably.
It is truly amazing how fast things can happen when the money people decide to spend the money to really make something happen.
Now if you guys spent as much time working on Polywell as you do arguing politics we might get a little more progress here too.
I guess we are taking a a bit of a breather after the intensity of Art Carlson's challenges over the last few weeks.
-Tom Boydston-
"If we knew what we were doing, it wouldn’t be called research, would it?" ~Albert Einstein
"If we knew what we were doing, it wouldn’t be called research, would it?" ~Albert Einstein
Tom,
I think we have pretty much exhausted the available data.
All we have left of common interest is politics. At least in politics we have some facts. Wide open to interpretation.
Thank the Maker it hasn't devolved into Religion.
I think we have pretty much exhausted the available data.
All we have left of common interest is politics. At least in politics we have some facts. Wide open to interpretation.
Thank the Maker it hasn't devolved into Religion.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.
