Ron Paul Supporters not welcome in Louisiana GOP

Discuss life, the universe, and everything with other members of this site. Get to know your fellow polywell enthusiasts.

Moderators: tonybarry, MSimon

MSimon
Posts: 14335
Joined: Mon Jul 16, 2007 7:37 pm
Location: Rockford, Illinois
Contact:

Post by MSimon »

Skipjack wrote:The problem is that the people were actually quite capable of paying back their loans as they were when they took them. The problem is that the loans had variable interest rates (something many of those taking the loans did not understand). When the USD plummeted, the interest on the loans exploded and so did the monthly rates. Then people were unable to pay them back. Had the interest rates been fixed and had the banks not being so greedy to sell the loans to foreign banks, a lot of the damage could have been prevented. In fact, I want to argue that if the banks would not have simply forclosed on the houses, but had given people a few extra months, the worst could have been prevented. There would not have been that many forclosed houses on the market and the housing market would have stayed much more stable. The government should have rather covered the extra increase in interest rates for those that were faced with the issue early on, instead of throwing all those billions at the banks after all the damage had already been done. I think it would have cost less in the end and people would have kept their homes.
Had the interest rates been fixed and had the banks not being so greedy to sell the loans to the government.

Greed will only get you so far if the money supply is limited.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

MSimon
Posts: 14335
Joined: Mon Jul 16, 2007 7:37 pm
Location: Rockford, Illinois
Contact:

Post by MSimon »

From: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Eco ... 9Dj04.html

Europe and America both entered the 2008 economic crisis with enormous asset bubbles. America's was concentrated in the price of residential real estate and mortgages issued against residential real estate. Europe's is concentrated in the debt of governments and banks. America's asset bubble has already popped, resulting in a US$6 trillion reduction in the paper wealth of American households, with a 40% reduction in the net worth of the average American family. But Europe's institutions continue to prop up the continent's asset bubble.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

MSimon
Posts: 14335
Joined: Mon Jul 16, 2007 7:37 pm
Location: Rockford, Illinois
Contact:

Post by MSimon »

The problem is that the people were actually quite capable of paying back their loans as they were when they took them.
Any one who takes out a 30 year loan without factoring in possible bad times deserves the haircut they got.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

Skipjack
Posts: 6896
Joined: Sun Sep 28, 2008 2:29 pm

Post by Skipjack »

Any one who takes out a 30 year loan without factoring in possible bad times deserves the haircut they got.
Probably, but most people dont understand the details and the differences between fixed and variable interest. If the banker (which is likely) never pointed that small detail out to them, they probably did not even know. It is very clear that the bankers took advantage of this lack of knowledge.

seedload
Posts: 1062
Joined: Fri Feb 08, 2008 8:16 pm

Post by seedload »

Skipjack wrote:
Any one who takes out a 30 year loan without factoring in possible bad times deserves the haircut they got.
Probably, but most people dont understand the details and the differences between fixed and variable interest. If the banker (which is likely) never pointed that small detail out to them, they probably did not even know. It is very clear that the bankers took advantage of this lack of knowledge.
"bankers took advantage"

And the advantage to a banker of tricking someone into loan that they are likely to default on is... ???
Stick the thing in a tub of water! Sheesh!

Skipjack
Posts: 6896
Joined: Sun Sep 28, 2008 2:29 pm

Post by Skipjack »

"bankers took advantage"

And the advantage to a banker of tricking someone into loan that they are likely to default on is... ???
Billions in bailout money and a multi million USD bonus. I think it worked out quite well for them, hu?
Seriously though, the bankers thought that it would all work anyway. They were gambling on the US economy to keep going strong and the USD to keep being stronger than the other currencies they sold the loans to. Their gamble did not work out.

hanelyp
Posts: 2261
Joined: Fri Oct 26, 2007 8:50 pm

Post by hanelyp »

seedload wrote:"bankers took advantage"

And the advantage to a banker of tricking someone into loan that they are likely to default on is... ???
An asset to sell to the badly run government backed Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac. Access to benefits from those same institutions, which were threatened to be cut off if loans were not made to certain risky borrowers.

seedload
Posts: 1062
Joined: Fri Feb 08, 2008 8:16 pm

Post by seedload »

hanelyp wrote:
seedload wrote:"bankers took advantage"

And the advantage to a banker of tricking someone into loan that they are likely to default on is... ???
An asset to sell to the badly run government backed Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac. Access to benefits from those same institutions, which were threatened to be cut off if loans were not made to certain risky borrowers.
Exactly. The incentive is artificial.
Stick the thing in a tub of water! Sheesh!

Teahive
Posts: 362
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2010 10:09 pm

Post by Teahive »

I doubt the interests of banks (bank owners) and bank employees are always well aligned, especially where bonuses for short term gains are paid.

choff
Posts: 2447
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2007 5:02 am
Location: Vancouver, Canada

Post by choff »

Does anyone have any information on the U.S. gross national debt total principal. That is to say, the actual amount borrowed and spent as opposed to compound interest.

In my country, the gross national debt is approx. $500 Billion, the taxpayers have made a total of approx. $1.5 Trillion in debt payments, and the principal, that is to say the actual amount of borrowing that was directly spent by the governments, totals $100 Billion since Confederation. We don't have a government spending problem so much as a compound interest problem.

If taxes were only half as high because there were no national debts, the economy wouldn't have the life choked out of it, mortgage payments could be met, less bubble busting.
CHoff

palladin9479
Posts: 388
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:22 am

Post by palladin9479 »

seedload wrote:Removed to prevent quoted wall of text
Maybe some misunderstanding.

The debt isn't the cause of the financial meltdown, it just became a focus point for political agenda. Debt in and of itself isn't bad, relying on debt is very bad as your spending future income.

If the Glass-Steagal act was still in effect then the housing burst would be just that, another burst. Some people would of went bankrupt, economy would of been bad for a little bit, otherwise life would of moved on. Bubble / Burst is the natural cycle of anywhere you have speculators involved. Supply / Demand states that the value of something is only what someone else is willing to pay for it, speculation artificially increases value as speculators are appraising things at what they would be worth in the future not what their worth now. Eventually there comes a point when an asset is over valued and no consumer will purchase it, prices start to slide and eventually cave in as the artificially hiked prices deflate. Anyone who was gambling on those prices will take a lose, the bigger the gamble the bigger the loss. Which is where the Glass-Steagal act steps in. It prevents consumer banks from making multi-billion USD bets. It prevents them from making multi-billion USD profits off those bets, and prevents them from taking multi-billion USD loss's from those bets. It was the massive loss's from the banks that set off the global financial meltdown, not the housing market burst. The burst just caused those loss's due to them being sold as commodities and insured against (gambling). That act existed not to prevent bubble / burst scenarios but to prevent the damage from spreading outside entities directly engaged in those gambles. Try to see it as a containment mechanism.

For the bad loans, that's just life. Bad decisions are always made when your gambling, that's why casino's always come out ahead. You can't manage who banks loan to, you gotta just let them do what they do and let the free market supply / demand sort things out. Greed is one of the greatest motivator in the world, sometimes the greatest as it can overpower fear. The bankruptcy's would of happened, the banks who made those bad loans would of taken the loss's and that would of been that. No spreading the damage into funds / insurance schemes and foreign banks.

For the wealthy, you can attempt to divert attention but it's not going to work. I used what's happening in Switzerland as an example, you should read up on it before going on a tangent. The other EU countries are cracking down on the anonymous numbered Swiss bank accounts used to stash wealth and evade tax's. Very soon the Swiss are going to be forced to hand over account statements to the other countries for their citizens, with the exception of safety deposit box's. The wealthy are taking their assets and stashing them so that they are not taxed on them, aka tax evasion.

This was to point out that the concept of the wealthy "creating jobs" when taxed less is complete BS. All they do is stash as much as possible and hire accountants to ensure they pay as little as possible. They donate large sums of money to ensure their ability to evade taxes in the future. Ultimately for them it's a question of cost effectiveness, by spending a few million they can save tens of millions in taxes. That needs to stop, period. You can not have investment bankers making 100+ million a year in profit, then paying 300K in taxes and only on their stated salary.

Funny thing about this is that I don't see anyone on this board that would be considered "wealthy". Everyone here is pretty much middle class (you make less then 7 figures a year, your middle class), meaning that your paying all the tax's. Your taking on the burden that the wealthier have deemed themselves too important to pay. You should be the ones demanding fair and equal treatment for all. Instead they've played their game so well, blinded you so completely with political ideology that you don't ever stop to consider what's really happening. No new taxes for the wealthy, plenty of new taxes for the middle class, that is the party line you've bought into.

I want lower taxes for all, just force the wealthy to pay their fair share. I don't want to raise taxes on the wealthy, I want to remove their exceptions, loop holes and hiding methods. Once their full wealth is reported as income to the IRS (like it is for everyone else), let the chips fall where they do. I'm not after their "stash", they can keep their capital, I'm after their hiding methods. And yes ALL wealthy people have a stash, it's how they stay wealthy (by hiding their income from the state).

palladin9479
Posts: 388
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:22 am

Post by palladin9479 »

choff wrote:Does anyone have any information on the U.S. gross national debt total principal. That is to say, the actual amount borrowed and spent as opposed to compound interest.

In my country, the gross national debt is approx. $500 Billion, the taxpayers have made a total of approx. $1.5 Trillion in debt payments, and the principal, that is to say the actual amount of borrowing that was directly spent by the governments, totals $100 Billion since Confederation. We don't have a government spending problem so much as a compound interest problem.

If taxes were only half as high because there were no national debts, the economy wouldn't have the life choked out of it, mortgage payments could be met, less bubble busting.
By law the US must pay all the interest on outstanding debt every year. Something like $300 Bn USD last year. This is an amount taken out of tax revenue before anything gets allocated.

US Debt is broken into different parts, we have what we owe ourselves, and what we owe foreign banks. What we owe ourselves is the larger of those two portions. Also there is social security, on one hand it's recorded as a debt, yet there is also an amount taken in as tax that acts like revenue. Currently social security is paying of itself, the amount taken in as revenue covers the amount spent, that may not be the case in the future. There are also various other funds and revenue accounts that are counted as assets.

Last time I looked it was something like 12~14Tn USD as total outstanding debt, and 3~4Tn USD in assets. Our interest payments are not where near crippling but they will climb higher if we keep borrowing. We could instantly create money to pay them off, but that would cause massive inflation and piss everyone in the world off.

Also a correction for those who are clueless. The USD did not lose value in the economic crash, this is faulty reasoning. It actually gained a ton of value, so much that many countries used local laws to prevent over trading on it. The value of a currency is compared to how much of it is in circulation, when you delete 6Tn of USD that fast, whatever remains gains much value. Anyone outside of the USA holding large amounts of USD saw a ridiculous increase in their wealth.

I'm a DoD contractor working in South Korea. As an employee of an American company I get paid in USD, yet due to living in SK I must use KRW to pay for everything. This means my actual wealth is based on the exchange rate. In spring 2008 it was 1 USD to 960 KRW. If I wanted to buy a 1,500,000 KRW HDTV I would of had to spend $1,562.50 USD. By that winter the exchange rate was 1 USD to ~1400 KRW. That same 1,500,000 KRW HDTV was now $1071.42 USD. My income (and thus spending power) jumped up by 45%. The Korean government was freaking out looking for a way to prevent people from exchanging money. The banks were actually forced to limit the amount of USD they would accept as anyone with USD in cash was making a killing. Now the exchange rate has stabilized to 1 USD to 1150 KRW. That same HDTV now would cost me $1,304.34 USD. Cost of living has not raised significantly since then, thus I'm still 19.79% ahead of where I was pre-recession.

Japan and the EU went out of their way to prevent the sudden increase in the value of the USD from effecting their economies. If you were an American, or someone with large amounts of liquid USD and were living outside of the USA, your net value has gone up not done. Of course inside the USA none of this was seen, the USD gained value but when everyone's using USD then that gain is transparent for the most part. The only thing you would of noticed would be cheaper imports.

choff
Posts: 2447
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2007 5:02 am
Location: Vancouver, Canada

Post by choff »

palladin9479 wrote:
choff wrote:Does anyone have any information on the U.S. gross national debt total principal. That is to say, the actual amount borrowed and spent as opposed to compound interest.

In my country, the gross national debt is approx. $500 Billion, the taxpayers have made a total of approx. $1.5 Trillion in debt payments, and the principal, that is to say the actual amount of borrowing that was directly spent by the governments, totals $100 Billion since Confederation. We don't have a government spending problem so much as a compound interest problem.

If taxes were only half as high because there were no national debts, the economy wouldn't have the life choked out of it, mortgage payments could be met, less bubble busting.
By law the US must pay all the interest on outstanding debt every year. Something like $300 Bn USD last year. This is an amount taken out of tax revenue before anything gets allocated.

US Debt is broken into different parts, we have what we owe ourselves, and what we owe foreign banks. What we owe ourselves is the larger of those two portions. Also there is social security, on one hand it's recorded as a debt, yet there is also an amount taken in as tax that acts like revenue. Currently social security is paying of itself, the amount taken in as revenue covers the amount spent, that may not be the case in the future. There are also various other funds and revenue accounts that are counted as assets.

Last time I looked it was something like 12~14Tn USD as total outstanding debt, and 3~4Tn USD in assets. Our interest payments are not where near crippling but they will climb higher if we keep borrowing. We could instantly create money to pay them off, but that would cause massive inflation and piss everyone in the world off.

Also a correction for those who are clueless. The USD did not lose value in the economic crash, this is faulty reasoning. It actually gained a ton of value, so much that many countries used local laws to prevent over trading on it. The value of a currency is compared to how much of it is in circulation, when you delete 6Tn of USD that fast, whatever remains gains much value. Anyone outside of the USA holding large amounts of USD saw a ridiculous increase in their wealth.

I'm a DoD contractor working in South Korea. As an employee of an American company I get paid in USD, yet due to living in SK I must use KRW to pay for everything. This means my actual wealth is based on the exchange rate. In spring 2008 it was 1 USD to 960 KRW. If I wanted to buy a 1,500,000 KRW HDTV I would of had to spend $1,562.50 USD. By that winter the exchange rate was 1 USD to ~1400 KRW. That same 1,500,000 KRW HDTV was now $1071.42 USD. My income (and thus spending power) jumped up by 45%. The Korean government was freaking out looking for a way to prevent people from exchanging money. The banks were actually forced to limit the amount of USD they would accept as anyone with USD in cash was making a killing. Now the exchange rate has stabilized to 1 USD to 1150 KRW. That same HDTV now would cost me $1,304.34 USD. Cost of living has not raised significantly since then, thus I'm still 19.79% ahead of where I was pre-recession.

Japan and the EU went out of their way to prevent the sudden increase in the value of the USD from effecting their economies. If you were an American, or someone with large amounts of liquid USD and were living outside of the USA, your net value has gone up not done. Of course inside the USA none of this was seen, the USD gained value but when everyone's using USD then that gain is transparent for the most part. The only thing you would of noticed would be cheaper imports.
Thankyou palladin9479, doesn't sound like a comprable system to my country, actually on a more sound footing in some ways. Now, did the US dollar so much rise, or did the KRW decline. :D
CHoff

palladin9479
Posts: 388
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:22 am

Post by palladin9479 »

Depends what your comparing it to.

How much did the price of underwear change between 2008 and 2012?

Also while the housing market in SK slowed down (new construction), there was no big mortgage bubble here. Koreans tend to purchase their home using cash, sometimes they take a loan out but the value of the apartment is typically much higher then the value of the loan. The way construction companies sell the apartments prior to starting construction has the buyers paying much less for the home the what it'll sell for once completed. For example my apartment was finished in 2009, the owner borrowed approx 200,000,000 KRW two years earlier to buy it from the construction company. Right now the apartment is appraised at 300,000,000+ KRW. Korean economy is largely export based with it's biggest customers being Japan and the USA. The recession hit Korea but only as a loss in exports not in banks going bankrupt.

The KRW didn't lose 48% of it's value, the USD appraised upward. Japan and the EU enacted measures to control and prevent their currencies from devaluing compared to the USD, they were trying to protect their export orientated economies. In the case of the EU the market correct hasn't happened yet, though the default of those countries is showing that it will happen soon. You can only prop up a failing currency so long before something breaks, and once it breaks it'll all crash down. I expect the value of the Euro to undergo a large correction sometime in the next few years. This is what their trying to prevent over there.

Try to think of it in two ways. Value of something is determined by how much someone is willing to pay for it (demand) and how much of it is in circulation (supply).

MSimon
Posts: 14335
Joined: Mon Jul 16, 2007 7:37 pm
Location: Rockford, Illinois
Contact:

Post by MSimon »

Supply / Demand states that the value of something is only what someone else is willing to pay for it, speculation artificially increases value as speculators are appraising things at what they would be worth in the future not what their worth now.
I'd like an objective measure of that. BTW does that mean NPV calculations are now out of bounds?

Am I being prudent to buy gold based on an expectation of a currency melt down? Or am I speculating?

If I fill my tank this week because I expect prices to go up next week am I speculating? How about if I don't buy a full tank because I expect prices to fall? Am I an evil speculator then?

Is buying low and selling high going to be a crime?

I don't see how you can make the perfect world you want. Well I suppose you could if you could find some perfectly fair disinterested commissars to run the show. Know any?
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

Post Reply