You wouldn't smart up your shop front till you had something to sell..rcain wrote: assuming EMC2 DO eventually want to extract some real money out of this thing called Polywell, i would have thought they would be smartening up their shop front somewhat. (i'm sure it would not be interpreted as a 'material disclosure', in any case, just expressing a general 'market optimism' for fusion).
R. Nebel at 53rd APS Plasma Physics meeting
At this point, you have no idea what the EMC2 web site looks like. For all you know they have a REALLY nice web site that only limited folks can get to, folks not including you, or me for that matterrcain wrote:even so. assuming EMC2 DO eventually want to extract some real money out of this thing called Polywell, i would have thought they would be smartening up their shop front somewhat. (i'm sure it would not be interpreted as a 'material disclosure', in any case, just expressing a general 'market optimism' for fusionKitemanSA wrote:If this were charades, I'd be touching my nose.rcain wrote:they are not allowed to, is the point, i think. even so.
.Perhaps they rely on most people's ability to differentiate between EMC2 and EMC2FDC.
Don't see why you think that. I sure wish that EMC2FDC would get back to work and improve their site. I can think of a number of reasons, positive reasons, why they don't. But that doesn't change the fact that I wish they would. Sigh!
Last edited by KitemanSA on Tue Sep 20, 2011 4:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
That really depends on why the relationship ended, and in particular what the WB-8 results look like (they should rule out several models proposed by PW critics). For instance, private rocketry is taking off even as NASA exits for reasons largely to do with budgeting.rcain wrote:now who with a right head on, is going to put private money, where the Navy just pulled the plug? not going to happen.
No matter how much ONR believes in Polywell, it's not a certain thing they can get $200M in public funding for the notion, especially in this fiscal environment and with the known hostility to the concept at DOE. But private companies are sitting on growing piles of cash, looking for higher returns that are increasingly hard to find. EMC2 could conceivably turn down another Navy intermediate-size contract if they felt they might have a decent chance of scoring private funds for full-scale.
It will be interesting to see if they pick up WB-8.1, that would seem to be a bit of an endorsement. I'm guessing that decision is looking more like April 2012 now.
n*kBolt*Te = B**2/(2*mu0) and B^.25 loss scaling? Or not so much? Hopefully we'll know soon...
Actually, look at the agenda for the 2011 RFP conference at UW Madison - R. Nebel is bringing the same topic here. (I'm at UW now btw. His coauthor J. Finn is actually teaching one of my classes this semester while on sabbatical.) Anyway, hopefully I'll get to rub shoulders with him at some point.
Well, if you get to ask him some questions afterwards, let us know.Solo wrote:Actually, look at the agenda for the 2011 RFP conference at UW Madison - R. Nebel is bringing the same topic here. (I'm at UW now btw. His coauthor J. Finn is actually teaching one of my classes this semester while on sabbatical.) Anyway, hopefully I'll get to rub shoulders with him at some point.
RFP paper
Nebel's paper is up from the conference. Doesn't look like the work of a man with a great deal of faith in the future of the Polywell. Maybe he did this work before the Polywell work and he was just tying up some loose ends?
http://plasma.physics.wisc.edu/conferen ... /Nebel.pdf
http://plasma.physics.wisc.edu/conferen ... /Nebel.pdf
Re: RFP paper
I haven't seen any mention of Polywell in that paper, neither direct nor indirect. It looks to me like a normal paper done by a contract researcher on Reversed Field Pinch, no more no less.eige1123 wrote:Nebel's paper is up from the conference. Doesn't look like the work of a man with a great deal of faith in the future of the Polywell. Maybe he did this work before the Polywell work and he was just tying up some loose ends?
http://plasma.physics.wisc.edu/conferen ... /Nebel.pdf
Yes, but he knows everything about the current state of Polywell research. All the results, all the numbers, all the theory, everything we don't know.
If the Polywell seemed to be a viable approach, why he would leave and work on another concept? It would be like Henry Ford following up his work on the Model T with a design for a new horse collar...
But, maybe, I simply lack imagination...
If the Polywell seemed to be a viable approach, why he would leave and work on another concept? It would be like Henry Ford following up his work on the Model T with a design for a new horse collar...
But, maybe, I simply lack imagination...
Because the theory is there so what would he do but twiddle his thumbs for a long while, waiting for them to produce results. It seems more likely that realizing there was little for him to add to the project currently, he moved on to other projects. Remember, his work is of the theoretical nature and Polywell is at the experimental/application stage.eige1123 wrote:Yes, but he knows everything about the current state of Polywell research. All the results, all the numbers, all the theory, everything we don't know.
If the Polywell seemed to be a viable approach, why he would leave and work on another concept? It would be like Henry Ford following up his work on the Model T with a design for a new horse collar...
But, maybe, I simply lack imagination...
Or he simply made a personal life choice. People have free will and all.
the most obvious answer is normally the simplest, as in he decided due to personal circumstances to move on. Good or bad, it was his choice. And from my perspective, the EMC2 team continues on the job well after he has left, which to me speaks more to viability than anything else. The fundamental truth these days for government projects, is that if they are in doubt for effectiveness and utility, they go away quickly, and mostly quietly. EMC2, has been on a flat or even up glide slope, jobs added, money spent, etc. This does not indicate a project in its last gasps.
the most obvious answer is normally the simplest, as in he decided due to personal circumstances to move on. Good or bad, it was his choice. And from my perspective, the EMC2 team continues on the job well after he has left, which to me speaks more to viability than anything else. The fundamental truth these days for government projects, is that if they are in doubt for effectiveness and utility, they go away quickly, and mostly quietly. EMC2, has been on a flat or even up glide slope, jobs added, money spent, etc. This does not indicate a project in its last gasps.
I am not opposing "per se" your idea that he might have left work at Polywell because he does not se a future in it, I am just pointing out that you cannot reach such a conclusion just because he made a contract research on a different plasma subject.eige1123 wrote:Yes, but he knows everything about the current state of Polywell research. All the results, all the numbers, all the theory, everything we don't know.
If the Polywell seemed to be a viable approach, why he would leave and work on another concept? It would be like Henry Ford following up his work on the Model T with a design for a new horse collar...
But, maybe, I simply lack imagination...
I am also puzzled by him leaving EMC2, but I am waiting to get some more tangible info before drawing a conclusion.
Maybe Alan Boyle will be able to clarify this issue for us if he can get his interview.