R. Nebel at 53rd APS Plasma Physics meeting

KitemanSA · Post by **KitemanSA** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:38 pm

vankirkc wrote: The optimism on this board is relentless. Brutal even.

"Brutal Optimism". Hmmm. An interesting thought.

rjaypeters · Post by **rjaypeters** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:47 pm

Why am I brutally optimistic? 'Cause if the Polywell doesn't pan out, I'm probably going to be depressed for a long time.

ladajo · Post by **ladajo** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:08 pm

We can not know for sure why Rick left. Maybe he did not like his parking spot, maybe he missed NM. But whatever his reasons, he made a huge contribution to a still ongoing project with huge potential. Will it work? Dunno yet. Might it work, absolutely...

That is just plain skeptical optimism. Nothing brutal about it.

TallDave · Post by **TallDave** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 6:17 pm

Glad to see Rick's keeping busy. People here tend to forget he had been doing all sorts of research for decades before the Polywell contract.

If the Navy picks up WB-100 on the basis of the excellent confinement reported for WB-8, I wouldn't be surprised if we see him back at EMC2 in some role.

cuddihy · Post by **cuddihy** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 1:42 am

TallDave wrote:Glad to see Rick's keeping busy. People here tend to forget he had been doing all sorts of research for decades before the Polywell contract.

If the Navy picks up WB-100 on the basis of the excellent confinement reported for WB-8, I wouldn't be surprised if we see him back at EMC2 in some role.

Yes, but this fits into other relevant bits of Polywell 'non-information' we've had for the last year or so.

Things like serious Ploywell boosters, like msimon, appearing to completely lose interest (no stated reason) subsequent to signing an NDA, Rick Nebel coming off the project, but still working in fusion, etc, appearing to be back in investigation mode of a method that is not yet at the "prototype" phase as polywell was. Park being quoted as saying "At least I can say I tried everything.." or words to that effect.

No, boys, I'm afraid the preponderance of non-evidence is tilting rather heavily towards "It don't works." More's the pity.

ladajo · Post by **ladajo** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 4:09 am

Patience.

rcain · Post by **rcain** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 5:18 am

... money, guile, luck, will, ...magic ... the fundamental laws of the universe, etc, (wikileaks, FOI ?); i think it requires everything in its favour - especially compared to the more agile alternative advances elsewhere (thinking particularly of Eric Lerner's team).

we'll know in another year (IIRC/I guess), whether the US-Navy plan any further Polywell exploration (.. or maybe we wont, and have to wait another 10 before we see something actually on/under the water).

if Polywell didn't work out for them, it would seem like a crime to me, to sit on all that data. So, someone in China eventually repeats/exceeds the experiments and if it works... welcome to the new world in 15 years .. around the time you have a Polywell installed at the end of your street. or not.

on the other hand, there have got to be a few multi-billionairs out there, barking mad enough to want to build a 'full scale' demo to answer the basic questions. My guess is we'll forever find ourselves a factor or 10000 out on something critical.... and it'll still take 5 years...

i cant see any short cuts at this stage, unless Rick Nebel or Doc Parks, ... or someone... spills some beans... before 5 years is up.

as you say... Patience...

(Looking forward to some more news updates from FoFu, soon i hope, some new data, (clean window?), bigger sparks

)

MSimon · Post by **MSimon** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:11 am

vankirkc wrote:
rcain wrote:Impossible to infer anything much about why he's with no longer with the US Navy/EMC however.
The optimism on this board is relentless. Brutal even.

Well he retired from LANL. Maybe that is the connection.

MSimon · Post by **MSimon** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:19 am

Things like serious Ploywell boosters, like msimon, appearing to completely lose interest (no stated reason) subsequent to signing an NDA

Being a reporter I never sign NDAs unless I'm working directly on a project. I'd prefer to be able to speculate.

Why has my interest waned? No news for the last year. I've discussed it to death. Gotten deep into the technology. And as much as I like political wrangling General, without news I have better places to do my politics.

OK. I owe General a post now. Heh.

icarus · Post by **icarus** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:36 am

Yeah, Nebel just decided to walk away ("diversify" if spun correctly) from the biggest project of the last century that looks like it is working out ... uh-huh, gotta bridge to see ya if you believe that.

If it is NOT working out and they are using the "secrecy" to keep the money flowing ... well there are special rooms in hell reserved for that kind of corrupt subterfuge.

Bussard is watching.

rcain · Post by **rcain** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 12:11 pm

icarus wrote:Yeah, Nebel just decided to walk away ("diversify" if spun correctly) from the biggest project of the last century that looks like it is working out ... uh-huh, gotta bridge to see ya if you believe that.

If it is NOT working out and they are using the "secrecy" to keep the money flowing ... well there are special rooms in hell reserved for that kind of corrupt subterfuge.

Bussard is watching.

...or, as someone suggested earlier on, Rick's (pretty expensive) skill set was just surplus to requirements over this 'current' stage of the project - which is mostly about scaling, and presumably more engineering than theory?

DennisP · Post by **DennisP** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 2:49 pm

I guess it's always possible that he got canned.

Regardless, Polywell isn't the only interesting fusion project going on. Focus fusion and (I think) Tri-Alpha are even aneutronic. I don't expect them all to work, I'm just hopeful that the universe will cooperate with at least one of them.

TallDave · Post by **TallDave** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 4:42 pm

I wouldn't try to read between the lines too much, as tempting as it is with our dearth of information. What we've heard in terms of results is that confinement is "excellent." We've also heard funding is tight, so it's not surprising Rick might be off doing something else.

I've been following this since back before WB-7 was funded, and there's never been more reason for optimism. Now is sort of a strange time for premonitions of doom, with Bussard's WB-6 results validated, reports of excellent confinement scaling, and a reactor design (!) in the current contract.

Polywell's certainly still a long shot, but it's getting closer.

EricF · Post by **EricF** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 6:35 pm

rcain wrote:
icarus wrote:Yeah, Nebel just decided to walk away ("diversify" if spun correctly) from the biggest project of the last century that looks like it is working out ... uh-huh, gotta bridge to see ya if you believe that.

If it is NOT working out and they are using the "secrecy" to keep the money flowing ... well there are special rooms in hell reserved for that kind of corrupt subterfuge.

Bussard is watching.
...or, as someone suggested earlier on, Rick's (pretty expensive) skill set was just surplus to requirements over this 'current' stage of the project - which is mostly about scaling, and presumably more engineering than theory?

It does seem more likely that he got the project off on the right foot and things pointed in the right direction, then stepped back from it to let things unfold. I couldn't see the Navy continuing to fund the project otherwise.

ladajo · Post by **ladajo** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:07 pm

TallDave wrote:I wouldn't try to read between the lines too much, as tempting as it is with our dearth of information. What we've heard in terms of results is that confinement is "excellent." We've also heard funding is tight, so it's not surprising Rick might be off doing something else.

I've been following this since back before WB-7 was funded, and there's never been more reason for optimism. Now is sort of a strange time for premonitions of doom, with Bussard's WB-6 results validated, reports of excellent confinement scaling, and a reactor design (!) in the current contract.

Polywell's certainly still a long shot, but it's getting closer.

I think it is less of a long shot now, and more of a real science project. I agree with Park's assessment, if it fails, it will not be because it did not get an honest shot. And that seems to have been the issue prompting the google talk and other venues where the good Dr. B "hawked his wares". In any event, I remain cautiously optimisitic, with a sprinkle of critical thinking. Unlike my opposite view of Rossi and his maneuvering. Cautiously pessimistic, with a heavy dose of critical thinking.

I think that if the standing recovery.gov report is in fact the last, that we should lobby for another interview. Kind of a where Recovery Act money got us, and the way ahead story...plus it would be about 6 months from the last interview and write up. Fair enough timing wise I think.