10KW LENR demonstrator (new thread)

[stefanbanev]

If that works, the anomalous heat will be large enough to quiet all critics and he has an "angel investor" ready to go if the 1 MW plant tests out.

Look, if the e-cat works you just need to take one and test it in front of the investor's engineers. You need not to make a network of 300 of them to make a test. This is really something that should be clear to anyone, regardless of the e-cat working or not.
That said I would like to close this discussion as it will really not bring us to any conclusion until October. Let's take a deep breath and just wait.

THE REAL REASON FOR THE 1 MW REACTOR AND ITS DEMO

Currently in America, Cold Fusion is not accepted as a valid engineering discipline deserving of intellectual property protection.

The American patent authorities have gone through great pains to educate each and every patent examiner that they supervise to recognize and expose any device that could possibly claim cold fusion either explicitly or implicitly as an underlying operating principle for immediate exclusion from any possible participation in the American patent process.

These patent decision makers fear that if just one such device were to get through this absolute excommunication, the US patent service would be a laughing stock and endure intolerable embarrassment and ridicule from all quarters of American society but especially from the press and from other organs of the government.

Cold fusion being totally devoid of credibility, Rossi first must make the field of cold fusion acceptable as a valid category of patentable devices before he can protect the ways and means of his invention from his competitors.

Rossi has decided that the best way to establish the bona fides of cold fusion is to sell his reactor on the open market and await a de facto recognition and certification through its generalized use throughout industry.

As a way to establish this generalize use of his reactor in industry, Rossi has decided on a strategy that uses the demonstration of his product to lend credence to the technology that underlays its invention to interest industrial users, rather than use scientific explanation and experiment to convince the academic community.

The details of how Rossi will execute his demo is not yet known, he intends to combine an army of small E-cat generators to produce at least 1 Mws of thermal power. This demo is growing near and will take place in late October- there are only days left.

But from the very inception of his reactor and continuing throughout its long development, his invention has been suffering from a terrible weakness. On occasion his reactor will run wild being completely impervious to any attempt at control. Clearly, this fault makes this energy catalyzing reactor inappropriate for use in the home in a single unit configuration.

Defkalian who wanted to serve the home market could not get Rossi to solve this intractable reactor control problem and as a result would not certify his reactor's design and pay Rossi for its successful delivery.

In those recent videos that show the tests of these subunits, the concern and uncertainty about the controllability of his reactor is plainly seen painted on his face. Rossi is clearly terrified and perplexed by these occasional runaways and subsequent burnouts that his reactors sometimes endures.

In each of these shakedown tests of the small 2.4 kw subunits, he intently watches his instruments for the tell-tail signs of the onset of wild subunit behavior. Any subunit that shows the slightest sign of aberrant behavior is immediately sent to the scrap pile. Because he does not yet understand the details of how his reactor really works or understands the fundamentals behind its function, he does not understand from first principles how to prevent these runaways from beginning or can control his reactor in an orderly way once burn-up has begun.

Rossi has been bedeviled by this control problem for many years to where now Rossi has been forced to downsize the capacity of his reactor to a very small energy production capability and use many of these small units ganged together to form a large industrial strength unit.

Rossi has come up with a way to cover up, adapt to, or mitigate this intractable and little understood reactor control problem which can occur from time to time in the Rossi reactor design.

Rossi has recently resolved to tolerate the occasional misbehavior of his reactor as long as it is not destructive and scarcely noticeable in the overall operation of his product.

Reactor run away conditions can be easily handled if this fault can be detected and rapidly segregated to a single and easily isolate-able low powered component of a very large capacity system. For example, a 2.5 kw reactor unit may runaway with power output of 25 Kws. This runaway condition can be hidden from any user visibility in a megawatt reactor because the anomalous spiking power output maxes out at a very small fraction of the total large composite reactor output.

The runaway component will burn itself out is short order after it has temporally increased the output of steam by about 1% at most of total capacity. Once the runaway burns itself out being one of very many small subunits, it can be easily replaced in an inexpensive way through an on-the-fly replacement procedure from a store of subunit backups without markedly affecting the total composite output of the other multitudes of active subunits that comprise the large reactor.

It is a good summary of probable issue e-cat may have, at least it looks consistent with public materials I've seen. He really needs to involve GE and accept a very small royalty they may offer... still it will be a fortune. It would be pity to see how the men who steers the hive may be pushed aside.

[parallel]

Axil,
I think that was the situation a couple of months ago, but reading what Rossi has written more recently he says he has largely overcome the problem of control and can now run "most of them"(?) without any control energy input.
I suspect that is some kind of breakthrough. He sounded pleased.

In keeping with what you wrote, I see that he has no less than 30 spares in the 1 MW unit. Enough to change out small units that act up, on the fly.

Some have suggested Rossi is somehow incompetent to continue developing the E-Cat. I find this to be arrogant nonsense. He knows more about it than anybody else, he is no fool, and will be able to buy expert advice after a successful demo of the 1 MW unit. He claims to have run literally thousands of tests. Having overcome extreme difficulties to arrive at the present situation why on earth should he give it up and sell out?

[parallel]

I take it that you consider his word is completely valueless. Goes along with your view that Rossi is a liar and a fraud I suppose, although in that case, why are you wasting time on this thread? Trying to save people from investing when they can't anyway?

I don't consider Rossi word valueless, but I can't base a scientific opinion only on his unilateral words because science does not work that way.

On a personal base I consider his actions not at the level of his claims, but this is a different issue and does not interfere in my analysis of his science.
On the other hand the fact that you keep insisting that I called Rossi a liar and a fraud (which I did not) gives me the feeling and the impression that you are the one biased here, not me.

What you wrote previously was:
parallel wrote:

I give Rossi credit for specifying that he wouldn't get paid until the 1 MW unit performs to specification. I know you don't.

Giorgio wrote:

I can't give him credits because it is just his word and nothing else.
As far as we know, this huge American customer could be as well Ampergo.

Contrary to what you wrote, science does work that way. An individual writes/says something and is given the benefit of the doubt until some confirming experiment is run. Rossi has made a claim (that you dismiss out of hand) and the proof or disproof of this will be his 1 MW unit demo run by independent experts.

[Giorgio]

What you wrote previously was:
parallel wrote:

I give Rossi credit for specifying that he wouldn't get paid until the 1 MW unit performs to specification. I know you don't.

No, actually you wrote that, not me.

Giorgio wrote:

I can't give him credits because it is just his word and nothing else.

Contrary to what you wrote, science does work that way. An individual writes/says something and is given the benefit of the doubt until some confirming experiment is run.

Which is exactly what I am stating.
No one in the world can repeat Rossi experiment because Rossi is refusing to release any data or info to allow it.
Hence the only option we have left is to believe his words but, as you correctly stated, this is NOT the way science works because before believing him we need to run some confirming experiments.

I am happy that you finally got to this point.

[parallel]

GIorgio,
parallel wrote:

Contrary to what you wrote, science does work that way. An individual writes/says something and is given the benefit of the doubt until some confirming experiment is run.

Giorgio wrote:

Which is exactly what I am stating.
No one in the world can repeat Rossi experiment because Rossi is refusing to release any data or info to allow it.
Hence the only option we have left is to believe his words but, as you correctly stated, this is NOT the way science works because before believing him we need to run some confirming experiments.

That is not true for two reasons.
In first case, you won't give Rossi's word any credence even when it is not related to science. (i.e. he's building a 1 MW unit) How would you like it if no one believed anything you said?
In the second case, you ignore that it is impossible for him to get a US patent yet. Also, that the confirming experiment is the 1 MW test to be run by independent experts - and this has not been run yet. Why should Rossi let someone else, like a university, run small tests ahead of his major confirming experiment?

[Giorgio]

That is not true for two reasons.
In first case, you won't give Rossi's word any credence even when it is not related to science. (i.e. he's building a 1 MW unit) How would you like it if no one believed anything you said?

And where did I ever say that I do not believe that he is building the 1 Mw reactor?
Do you think your arguments will be more solid if you insist in putting in my mouth words I never said?

In the second case, you ignore that it is impossible for him to get a US patent yet. Also, that the confirming experiment is the 1 MW test to be run by independent experts - and this has not been run yet.

Regardless of the reasons, in this case we go back exactly to the situation where you cannot belive Rossi simply because he states something but refuses to disclose any data or info, because science does not work like that.

Why should Rossi let someone else, like a university, run small tests ahead of his major confirming experiment?

I stated it many times, Rossi can do and behave as he pleases, but he cannot ask for credibility from the scientific community if he does not follow the scientific route.

[Skipjack]

I don't find it to be in the same league as a cheap, clean, endless source of energy that could be used for anything, including vehicles.

Currently, as far as I am concerned, he has not invented anything yet, as there is no proof whatsoever of what he has done or not done. He might, could have, under some circumstances, maybe, have invented something that is worth something.
Even if it really is so, without books to study from, he would never have been able to.
Maybe you should read some more of those, because you clear know how to type... a lot of hot air without any substance.

[ScottL]

Repeating much of what's been said already, until his black box is not a black box anymore, he has proven nothing. The "benefit of the doubt" is that we're even discussing him and his project at this point. Based on the growing topics on this forum about him, I'd say he's getting all the benefit. The bottom line is, until he reveals his secret, he holds no sway with the scientific community.

[KitemanSA]

Giorgio, Parallel,
Has it struck you two yet that you are arguing past one another? G says "I don't believe him" because.... and P comes back with "I don't know why you disbelieve him" and G says, I"Ididn't say thet"... Back and forth.

I myself am unable to "believe" Rossi at this time. But I have been unable to find any REASON to disbelieve him either. So, I wait and see.

[parallel]

Kiteman,

There is a difference between our opinions. Giorgio has stated several times that Rossi is a fraud and a liar and clearly does not believe the E-Cat works.

I don't know if it works or not, so have an open mind on the subject. Unlike Giorgio I tend to give him the benefit of the doubt when he says he will do something. Giorgio apparently thinks everything he says is a lie, something that I find irrational.

Today Rossi has posted that he does not have big problems to delay the 1 MW test. In fact he says "the buyer's company" engineers will be testing it for 2 months (starting in September,) with full access to everything except the secret reactors, prior to the "public" demonstration in the last week of October. He adds progress is being made to develop electric power from E-Cats and now expects to do that in one year: previously he estimated it would take two years.

Giving him the benefit of the doubt, these statements make me feel more optimistic. I won't be dramatically surprised if it doesn't work, but I can't think any sane person would make those detailed forecasts unless they were quite confident, and I don't think he is insane.
I can't see how he will make money from it before the public demo and if that doesn't work he won't make money period. He must know if it works, so why go to all this trouble for something doomed to failure?

None of this will satisfy the so called scientists, but Rossi doesn't care about that. If he sells working E-Cats these same scientists, who now scoff, will look pretty silly.

[Joseph Chikva]

I don't know if it works or not...

Till now?
Ok, Rossi does not want to disclosure what processes go inside of his "black box".
But outside the box? Why till now people do not know can Rossi's reactor produce net power?
Is it so difficult?

[Giorgio]

Giorgio has stated several times that Rossi is a fraud and a liar [...]

Show me where please.

I won't be dramatically surprised if it doesn't work, but I can't think any sane person would make those detailed forecasts unless they were quite confident, and I don't think he is insane. [......] He must know if it works, so why go to all this trouble for something doomed to failure?

As I said few posts ago, if there is something that Steorn and Orbo story teach us is that you cannot apply a rational logic to anyone that is blindly believing his ideas and refusing to critically verify them.

[tomclarke]

Kiteman,

There is a difference between our opinions. Giorgio has stated several times that Rossi is a fraud and a liar and clearly does not believe the E-Cat works.

I don't know if it works or not, so have an open mind on the subject. Unlike Giorgio I tend to give him the benefit of the doubt when he says he will do something. Giorgio apparently thinks everything he says is a lie, something that I find irrational.

Today Rossi has posted that he does not have big problems to delay the 1 MW test. In fact he says "the buyer's company" engineers will be testing it for 2 months (starting in September,) with full access to everything except the secret reactors, prior to the "public" demonstration in the last week of October. He adds progress is being made to develop electric power from E-Cats and now expects to do that in one year: previously he estimated it would take two years.

Giving him the benefit of the doubt, these statements make me feel more optimistic. I won't be dramatically surprised if it doesn't work, but I can't think any sane person would make those detailed forecasts unless they were quite confident, and I don't think he is insane.
I can't see how he will make money from it before the public demo and if that doesn't work he won't make money period. He must know if it works, so why go to all this trouble for something doomed to failure?

None of this will satisfy the so called scientists, but Rossi doesn't care about that. If he sells working E-Cats these same scientists, who now scoff, will look pretty silly.

Parallel, I think many here (including Giorgio & me) find your judgement of this matter unrealistic.

We all (I think) would love CF to work. We all can see that strange things can happen, and CF coming out of a crank inventor's basement is theoretically possible. There may be some disagreement in how we judge the inherent likelihood of CF given all the experiments so far - I don't know.

But in this case the problem is Rossi. He has no scientific credentials. He has a track record of promising wonder-technology which never works. His statements abpout e-cats have repeatedly been contradictory. His scientific back-story about what he is doing is full of holes. When asked detailed scientific questions about the validity of his demos he resorts to insults and clams up. He can't even keep his non-technical claims straight.

Specifically he has claimed that e-cats were being tested by Defkalion, and later said they have never had any e-cats. His statements have been those of a salesman who wants to get people to believe his story and is not worries about the truth.

That Rossi's words should be given no benefit of the doubt given his history in Petroldragon & his behaviour so far about e-cats seems clear to me.

So:
Rossi has every motivation to exaggerate e-cat claims. Whether this is scam or self-delusion, the result must be the same.

Rossi has provably in the past exaggerated claims.

Rossi has not one credible demo in his favour other than exaggerated claims.

Rossi has gone public, giving demos, talking to press, over a period of time, so he is clearly not somone who avoids publicity.

I would say his approach throughout, as might be expected, is to court good publicity and avoid bad publicity.

It seems clear that Rossi is asking for lots of money from interested parties, likely he has received some. (I am not sure what hard evidence there is for this, but the rumours point in that direction as does Rossi's behaviour).

Benefit of the doubt?

No.

[tomclarke]

One thing Rossi is good at - which is convincing people. Especially scientists!


Re Rossi's Petroldragon fiasco here is a quote from the then Mayor of Milan.

“In the years that he was working here he didn’t produce a single drop of oil, as far as we know. What it did was creating just a media event. He was able to persuade in a way that I can not explain, a good portion of public opinion…and that is exactly what is so hard for me to explain. He persuaded technicians of the field, scientists, important institutions, .that he was able to do magic.”

[from youtube video "the magic of Mr. Rossi"]

Sound familiar?

[ScottL]

Rossi has a history of fraud as well as a history of showmanship, these facts cannot be ignored. They should trigger a very real skeptical reaction from anyone following his project, this is common sense. Now whether he's wrong, attempting to defraud, or just an idiot on this project has yet to be seen, but indications are pointing toward an attempted defrauding.

Look at the recent history of the project:

1. Cut ties with Defkalion.
2. Failed to pay UoB
3. Failed to provide test devices as promised
4. Has changed venue from Greece to U.S.
5. Cites U.S. patent issues, but is still changing venue to such

I mean really? If you aren't a bit skeptical of it all by now, I have a golden goose to sell you too. This is not to say it won't work, but simply that all indications are that this is a lot of smoke and mirrors.