I was at Kennedy Space Center a couple of days ago. Very cool visit. Got into Vehicle prep to see them spinning up Atlantis, and also Vehicle Assy with the Discovery full stack in high bay ready for roll out. Also went out to Pad39. As I passed by the Cryo facility I was thinking of polywell. Discovery rolled out that evening.
I also saw the Constellation Mobile Launch Tower, sitting neglected next to Vehicle Assy. Made me sad.
The big news is that they signed with Bigelow for modules to expand the ISS. Very cool.
My hopes are on the commercials. SpaceX has a really cool concept for vertical landing of the crewed Dragon.
The space plane concepts by SNC and Orbital also look cool. I dont think that Orbitals entry will get chosen though. They have the least hardware and would need the most money.
SpaceX definitely has the best chance right now.
But hey, maybe Paul March will have a breakthrough with his Mach Thruster.
Even though I think it is unlikely, one can always hope
They wont invest a lot of money into something like Skylon (maybe some peanuts, but not the billions that Skylon would need). There are no US porker- companies involved.
From the discussions during my visit, NASA is really pushing towards commercializing LEO for cargo and bodies, and focusing on going deep. They really indicated that they do not intend to be in the LEO business. TO paraphrase, "No going to be our job anymore".
They will be involved with vehicle and crew certs for anything that docks with ISS or another gov project, but outside of that are pushing for the FAA or someone to do the rest, just not NASA.