That's patently ridiculous because China is more than 7000 miles from California
I have flown between Los Angeles, CA and Shanghai, PR China several times. The great circle route takes you up the coast to about the Alutien islands then down the coast along the Koreas, or over eastern Siberia, depending on the airline. Total distance is about 6500 miles. The Gobi desert could have been the target area. It is a few hundred miles north and west of Shanghai, or about 100 miles north of Beijing, and Beijing is just less than 6000 miles from LA.
Note that it makes as much sense for China to launch a missile as a demonstration to president Obama while he is strong arming in Asia as it makes for president Obama to launch a missile as a demonstration to China.
@Betruger
Did you find any video or articles about last year's missile? The links you posted showed the same video as this year's missile.
It also makes about as much sense for China to launch a missile as a demonstration and then keep it a secret as it would for Russia to build the Ultimate Weapon, rigged to go off and destroy the world if attacked, and then keep it a secret (Dr. Strangelove).
You don't risk a retaliatory strike by springing something like that. You announce you are going to do the test, and you do it on your side of the pond. Which they do.
North Korea might. But frankly I'd say US amateur rocketeers would have a much better chance of pulling off a sea launch.
Whatever it was, nothing blew up. It was not dangerous.
The other possibility, somebody had an 'oops moment' with a launch button or computer in the military, and their just way too embarrassed to come forward. Heads could roll, careers could be cut short, its like running a ship aground in calm weather.
Tom Ligon wrote:...as it would for Russia to build the Ultimate Weapon, rigged to go off and destroy the world if attacked, and then keep it a secret (Dr. Strangelove).
The Soviet Union may not have built an ultimate weapon, but they did have a "rigged" control system to override control of their strategic (rocket only?) forces in the event of attack. Let me look it up...Yes, Dead Hand or Perimeter. Here:
Tom Ligon wrote:Whatever it was, nothing blew up. It was not dangerous.
Really? Anything with that much energy, not dangerous? That's what makes it fun!
I maintain it was a launch, but a very confusing one. 'There are more things in Heavan and on earth than are dreamt of in your philosphy...' I don't understand the event, so I can't deduce a motive.
Here's the deal ... unless nuclear armed, missiles are not very dangerous. They burn all their fuel, and come down with a crunch, making a small-diameter hole. Perhaps they carry a small conventional warhead. Big deal. You can carry more in a Toyota pickup truck.
Airliners are what are scarry. Think back about nine years and a couple of months. So here you guys are thinking a mystery airliner is not exciting.
Someone at NSF notes that a video lasting 10 min means 10min boost, which according to him isn't credible. I don't recall the exact wording, but I'm pretty sure single stage 10min boost is beyond anything I've heard of, and I expect 2 stage for 10min with so much of a plume is quite a long time for any modern rocket.
This argument is going on at several sites I frequent, and the 10-minute statement shows up there, as well. I believe it comes from the cameraman.
If some guy tells you he lasts ten minutes making love to his lady, do you believe it? Her estimate may be less. I don't know how reliable that number is.
All sorts of cool toys are flown around SoCal, including various DARPA and Skunk Works toys capable of sustained flight. I've also considered an amateur rocket, of the Large Dangerous Space Ship category. These things can be massive, and reach impressive altitudes. Picture a true monster, launched from a boat offshore, with an upper stage designed for a slow burn, not to accelerate but to maintain speed, and possibly to also deliberately leave an impressive exhaust trail. You could easily design an upper stage to be just a low-thrust smoke pot.
Think of all the elaborate UFO hoaxes made with hot air balloons.
If some guy tells you he lasts ten minutes making love to his lady, do you believe it? Her estimate may be less. I don't know how reliable that number is.
When I was younger. Heh. And I had a digital clock for time keeping.
Some how the discussion came up with my mom (late 80s when it came up) and she said it runs in the family.
Our family ancestor was from Russia and had 4 wives. I was descended from the last wife.
BTW not all ladies like extended sessions. As in "I want to get up and do something else please."
Yeah. I know. Too much information. :-)
I'm an old man now and I have no shame. LULZ.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.
Tom Ligon wrote:Here's the deal ... unless nuclear armed, missiles are not very dangerous. They burn all their fuel, and come down with a crunch, making a small-diameter hole.
Yes, you're right, unless it lands where you're standing. Not very dangerous at all... Oh, dirty bombs aren't dangerous and biological packages aren't dangerous, really.
Yeah, but again, dirty bombs and biological weapons are easier to deliver in a Toyota pickup truck. Missiles really don't carry very much. For a foriegn power to strike at the US with a single missile, or just a few, would be stupid.
Your point about easier delivery with a pickup truck is well taken.
The beauty of an unknown entity launching something off the coast of California is no one knows who is responsible. The mass and nature of the payload are almost irrelevent because of the uncertainty injected into everyone's minds.
BTW, my professional background is ballistic missile warning, but that was many years ago. Those who know don't talk, those who talk don't know. I can talk because I don't know.
Nope. I never saw anything about such a launch last year. Sorry.
In general, I do tend to examine photos, etc, that I see on the internet for consistent perspective and consistent illumination directions. Most of the things I look at, turn out to be fakes, especially the political stuff.
This launch off Long Beach seems to be no fake. Most of the official explanations for it seem to be the real fakes (if you will forgive THAT unfortunate choice of words). What it was in detail, I really dunno. Sure looks like a big rocket, though.
In the past, I've seen an airliner at cruise altitude moving towards me which looked exactly like an ascending rocket (and I've been at a few rocket launches, including a Shuttle), until I realized it was the curvature of the earth that caused the 'climbing' illusion.
On the other hand, lobbing a (US or Russian or Chinese) SLBM from near SoCal over the Korean Peninsula or Japan into the Yellow Sea or Sea of Japan would be a very effective political statement while the President was in Asia.