http://nextbigfuture.com/2010/05/south- ... orean.html
I am able to admit, when I was wrong.
I stand corrected
I still can't believe that they did this with a sub, talk about stupid.
I would still like to think they did it with a YU-3 rigged as a mine.
But apparently, they have imagery showing a mini sub mother ship getting underway a couple of days prior and returning a couple of days after.
I am still aghast at how stupid the nK guys are with this whole thing. they will get their war yet. I can just not fathom what they think the gain would be...
I would still like to think they did it with a YU-3 rigged as a mine.
But apparently, they have imagery showing a mini sub mother ship getting underway a couple of days prior and returning a couple of days after.
I am still aghast at how stupid the nK guys are with this whole thing. they will get their war yet. I can just not fathom what they think the gain would be...
ladajo wrote:I still can't believe that they did this with a sub, talk about stupid.
I would still like to think they did it with a YU-3 rigged as a mine.
But apparently, they have imagery showing a mini sub mother ship getting underway a couple of days prior and returning a couple of days after.
I am still aghast at how stupid the nK guys are with this whole thing. they will get their war yet. I can just not fathom what they think the gain would be...
I will tell you exactly what the gain will be. They will be able to kill off a large chunk of their young male population, and relieve some of their economic pressure as a result. They will likewise be able to point to the war as an excuse to clamp down harder on their poor subjects, and thereby defuse the currently brewing sentiment of defiance among the populace. War justifies a population decline without causing an uprising, and likewise can be used as an excuse to kill suspected dissidents.
Right now, a war is exactly what North Korea needs, and that is why they are making such efforts to provoke it. On the other hand, they might actually think they can win, which makes it an even bigger benefit for them. Seoul is within range of their massive artillery emplacements, and unless South Korea takes out that artillery, there will be millions of casualties. Of course, that benefits North Korea too, because it increases the misery of their enemy.
I would not bet on China backing North Korea though. Though I may be wrong. I was before and I maybe I dont understand the mentality of these people well enough. In any case a war between NK and SK would cause economic turmoil in the entire area and also some economic issues in the rest of the world. I am sure that China would be affect by this negatively as well, at least a little bit. That is why I hope that they will put some pressure on NK. It is good to see that SK is keeping a cool head and does not do anything to provoque a war. That is certainly very hard for them. It would be for me. But it is the smart thing to do in this case.
The behavior of China in tolerating Kim Jong il's nutty antics is an enigma. The only way it makes sense to me is that they are doing it only to save face. Because they backed North Korea in the Korean war, they feel that to rebuke North Korea now, would be to admit they had made a mistake before. They are loath to do this because they will be seen as losing face.Skipjack wrote:I would not bet on China backing North Korea though. Though I may be wrong. I was before and I maybe I dont understand the mentality of these people well enough. In any case a war between NK and SK would cause economic turmoil in the entire area and also some economic issues in the rest of the world. I am sure that China would be affect by this negatively as well, at least a little bit. That is why I hope that they will put some pressure on NK. It is good to see that SK is keeping a cool head and does not do anything to provoque a war. That is certainly very hard for them. It would be for me. But it is the smart thing to do in this case.
Even with the risk of losing face, I cannot fathom why China would want a war in Korea. Perhaps they are trying, albeit not hard enough. I know Kim Jong Il went to China just a short time ago. It was after the torpedo attack, so perhaps Kim Jong got an earful.
This sums up my feelings about this pretty nicely. I cant believe that China has any interest in a potentially devastating war at its doorstep. Yo never know where the wind blows and a radioactive cloud can go quite a distance. It might not really do any damage in the end, but it could cause a panic among investors and people doing business in the area. With China currently riding along nicely economically, I think the last thing they want is to jeopardize this, just because some senile, crazy old man thinks that a war is a good way to get his country out of its misery.The behavior of China in tolerating Kim Jong il's nutty antics is an enigma. The only way it makes sense to me is that they are doing it only to save face. Because they backed North Korea in the Korean war, they feel that to rebuke North Korea now, would be to admit they had made a mistake before. They are loath to do this because they will be seen as losing face.
Even with the risk of losing face, I cannot fathom why China would want a war in Korea. Perhaps they are trying, albeit not hard enough. I know Kim Jong Il went to China just a short time ago. It was after the torpedo attack, so perhaps Kim Jong got an earful.
While talking about China, this is interesting:
http://nextbigfuture.com/2010/05/china- ... pdate.html
Like I predicted in the past: Strong economic ties help overcome even the greatest ideologic differences, provided the leaders in question are not completely out of their mind.
http://nextbigfuture.com/2010/05/china- ... pdate.html
Like I predicted in the past: Strong economic ties help overcome even the greatest ideologic differences, provided the leaders in question are not completely out of their mind.
Let us suppose there is a war against North Korea. Let us further suppose that no one in the South or from any "Western" Country (that would include China) dies in the war.ladajo wrote:I still can't believe that they did this with a sub, talk about stupid.
I would still like to think they did it with a YU-3 rigged as a mine.
But apparently, they have imagery showing a mini sub mother ship getting underway a couple of days prior and returning a couple of days after.
I am still aghast at how stupid the nK guys are with this whole thing. they will get their war yet. I can just not fathom what they think the gain would be...
What does the winner get? North Korea. i.e. a very large burden for decades.
No one wants to lose a war to the Norks. But oddly enough no one wants to win a war against the Norks either. So the Norks can provoke a LOT without fear of open retaliation.
East Germany was a very large object lesson.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.
I agree that nK enjoys a unique position in regards to playing with fire. The chinese do not want a North/South fight. They would then be forced to choose. The choice being take over North Korea, or protect the regime. the untenable/not an option choice is to let South Korea/US take down the North, and then have China become "further" surrounded by "the west" (Chinese POV).
South Korea will be thinking that the ultimate end to the misery is to take out nK regime, integrate and unify once and for all. But, sanity tells them that they can't yet afford it. Insanity tells them that they can not continue the cat and mouse (think Tom and Jerry) game much longer. Somewhere in the middle is nK antics painting the South into a corner called "enough is enough". Southern Public opinion will only tolerate so many more provocations and killings before they think to just be done with it before the silly bastages try to nuke Seoul. Artillery is one thing, Chem Bio artillery is another, but nuking, that is its own thing entirely. Fear of nuking, that can drive some irrational decisions.
nK can only gain further pain out of this, and if it comes to a fight, I am willing to bet that in no way shape or form will anyone let the current nK regime survive, be it us, ROK, or the Chinese.
The most plausible final answer is ROK and the US continue to stall hoping nK collapses of its own accord. China is starting to think more seriously about a direct intervention in the North, and rolling up the Kim legacy once and for all and flushing it (no one will stop them, many will applaud). In the mean time, nK will pull the tigers tail one time to many, and someone is going to get tired of it.
My bet, China will go unilateral and settle it their way. No matter how you cut it, Kim loses once a fight starts, whichever way it comes from. He must know that, that is why it just doesn't make any sense. I can't believe he is that nuts. Guys like him are all about survival and legacy. Libya being a great case in point. Ask Gadaffi what drove his decisions when presented with the BBC China incident.
South Korea will be thinking that the ultimate end to the misery is to take out nK regime, integrate and unify once and for all. But, sanity tells them that they can't yet afford it. Insanity tells them that they can not continue the cat and mouse (think Tom and Jerry) game much longer. Somewhere in the middle is nK antics painting the South into a corner called "enough is enough". Southern Public opinion will only tolerate so many more provocations and killings before they think to just be done with it before the silly bastages try to nuke Seoul. Artillery is one thing, Chem Bio artillery is another, but nuking, that is its own thing entirely. Fear of nuking, that can drive some irrational decisions.
nK can only gain further pain out of this, and if it comes to a fight, I am willing to bet that in no way shape or form will anyone let the current nK regime survive, be it us, ROK, or the Chinese.
The most plausible final answer is ROK and the US continue to stall hoping nK collapses of its own accord. China is starting to think more seriously about a direct intervention in the North, and rolling up the Kim legacy once and for all and flushing it (no one will stop them, many will applaud). In the mean time, nK will pull the tigers tail one time to many, and someone is going to get tired of it.
My bet, China will go unilateral and settle it their way. No matter how you cut it, Kim loses once a fight starts, whichever way it comes from. He must know that, that is why it just doesn't make any sense. I can't believe he is that nuts. Guys like him are all about survival and legacy. Libya being a great case in point. Ask Gadaffi what drove his decisions when presented with the BBC China incident.
Last edited by ladajo on Fri May 21, 2010 1:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
ladajo,
It may be a case of lose sooner (domestic considerations as noted above) or lose later (international problems).
I have read that the Austrian Corporal started a war because his actual economic situation was dire. The war as originally planned would have created a stalemate in Belgium. i.e. at least a temporary distraction. Well you know the old saying: it is always wise to have stupid enemies. And a few smart generals who will not follow orders or interpret them according to their own view of the situation.
It may be a case of lose sooner (domestic considerations as noted above) or lose later (international problems).
I have read that the Austrian Corporal started a war because his actual economic situation was dire. The war as originally planned would have created a stalemate in Belgium. i.e. at least a temporary distraction. Well you know the old saying: it is always wise to have stupid enemies. And a few smart generals who will not follow orders or interpret them according to their own view of the situation.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.
Evidently the Norks are closely following your comments here at T-P:ladajo wrote:I am afraid that we will see resolution for this sooner rather than later, and I am also afraid that it will involve some irrational decisions.
You have to wonder what the limit is for the Chinese in all this.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64I26F20100521
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Washington strongly condemned North Korea's action and called for an international response.
The South announced on Thursday that it had overwhelming evidence a North Korean submarine had entered its waters in March and attacked the Cheonan corvette, killing 46 sailors in what President Lee Myung-bak called a "military provocation".
North Korea denied the accusation and said it was ready to tear up all agreements with the South, with whom it remains technically at war under a truce that ended fighting in the 1950-53 Korean War.
"It was a military provocation and violation of the U.N. Charter and the truce agreement," Lee, whose 2-½ years in office have seen relations with the North turn increasingly frosty, said in a statement.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.
MSimon wrote:Let us suppose there is a war against North Korea. Let us further suppose that no one in the South or from any "Western" Country (that would include China) dies in the war.ladajo wrote:I still can't believe that they did this with a sub, talk about stupid.
I would still like to think they did it with a YU-3 rigged as a mine.
But apparently, they have imagery showing a mini sub mother ship getting underway a couple of days prior and returning a couple of days after.
I am still aghast at how stupid the nK guys are with this whole thing. they will get their war yet. I can just not fathom what they think the gain would be...
What does the winner get? North Korea. i.e. a very large burden for decades.
No one wants to lose a war to the Norks. But oddly enough no one wants to win a war against the Norks either. So the Norks can provoke a LOT without fear of open retaliation.
East Germany was a very large object lesson.
The same passions will apply to North Korea. The cost doesn't matter. The people of Korea WANT to be unified, and will not balk at the cost. I talk to Koreans all the time. The only question is how to reunite without getting a lot of people killed.
He is a virtual god in North Korea. Eventually the psychological warfare starts to work on it's users. Didn't the Romans always have someone whispering in the ear of Conquering Generals during their parade?ladajo wrote: My bet, China will go unilateral and settle it their way. No matter how you cut it, Kim loses once a fight starts, whichever way it comes from. He must know that, that is why it just doesn't make any sense. I can't believe he is that nuts.
Unless they drink the koolaid. Ain't nothin more dangerous than a true believer. Think Amadinnerjacket.ladajo wrote: Guys like him are all about survival and legacy. Libya being a great case in point. Ask Gadaffi what drove his decisions when presented with the BBC China incident.