Focus Fusion and Nuclear Proliferation

Point out news stories, on the net or in mainstream media, related to polywell fusion.

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Helius
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Post by Helius »

If the reactor designs open to non-weapons states are already more than sufficient to allow the country to create nuclear weapons, what difference does it make if we make a new design.
I think you and Art are in agreement that nuclear proliferation is a political issue, but can be properly hindered or improperly facilitated by technological developments. The last thing the world needs is easier methods for developing nuclear weapons.

I think we can help non-proliferation by developing new systems that are worthless for nuclear weapons development but are clearly superior in heat and electrical generation. There can be both technological hindrances to proliferation in new designs, and political hindrances to proliferation in their political implementation too.

In a Thorium breeder for example, the separation of Fissile U233 from U232 would be much more difficult, time consuming and dirtier than the separation of U235 from U328. The mass difference of the first is only one gram /mole where the later is 3 grams/ mole. That is one technological hindrance. Impeded access to the breeding blanket could be another. There could be the political structure in place also from the get-go to allow for tight international inspections against any diversion, or irradiating of U238 to make Pu 239 for a Weapons program. New reactor? New inspection regime. We're in agreement that world oversight is necessary.

It is certain however, that the past development path is clearly "dual use", and the use of simpler graphite block reactors allows even the most technologically backward countries to develop nuclear weapons. The current development path from the Manhattan Project through the current Gen III+ reactors were a follow on of Military reactors. Dual use was part of the plan. The first Civilian light water reactor, Shippingport, was a Naval design.

It is important to break tradition and develop single use reactors, process heat only, and primarily for electrical generation.

Ok, now come my rant: It seems that not developing nuclear technologies is being passed as a non-proliferation strategy, when in fact the real dynamic is that it has the potential to be the cleanest and cheapest source of process heat. We can see why it hasn't been done in the previous administration: George W Bush was a Texas oil man, and Dick Cheney was from Wyoming. A coal train leaves Cheyenne every 10 minutes or so. Why invite competition?

The current administration owes a debt of gratitude to General Electric, and they have a method to repay, twofold.

First is windmills: Windmills do Zero load following and they're pretty much wildly variable on the supply side. Yet, GE will sell a bundle of those over the next decade: Google General Electric Wind turbines: http://www.gepower.com/businesses/ge_wi ... /index.htm Great. GE has it on the front side.

What about the load following? After all, even one of the windiest area of the world, the Great Plains can get a parked High pressure area and be dead in the water. Pretty much Watt for Watt, we're going to need reserve capacity and load following for wind. And wouldn't you know it? GE has it there too!
Google General Electric gas turbines: http://www.gepower.com/prod_serv/produc ... /index.htm They got it made.

The funny thing is, once that strategy fails to pan out, GE has "right" technology to help clean up the mess they helped create:
Google General Electric S-Prism: http://pepei.pennnet.com/display_articl ... ctor-work/
They won't finish work on the S-Prism, probably for a decade or so, by that time the huge number of Wind turbines backed by an equal capacity of new Natural gas turbines will be a Financial success, but a technological failure, and the time will be ripe for Nuclear power.

Brian H
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Post by Brian H »

MSimon wrote:
Brian H wrote:Well, if PolyWell &/or Focus Fusion get going, economics would/should shut down virtually every fission power plant (not to mention coal and other thermal generating plant) on the planet on a much faster schedule than even the most aggressive political initiatives and decisions would. Anyone willing to pay 5-20x extra, respectively, for power? Only the most determined arms-making countries.
But that cuts both ways. A source of cheap neutrons would be an excellent way of making bomb material.
What neutrons would those be? FF, at least, is p-B aneutronic. If you want neutrons, fission is fine.
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pfrit
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Post by pfrit »

TallDave wrote:
The goal of ending nuclear proliferation does not enter into this discussion. It is a simple fact that it is an unattainable goal.
It's really not. The Ukraine and S. Africa voluntarily disarmed. Libya denuclearized, even if they still resemble something out of Orwell (I highly recommend the link btw, fascinating and tragic look inside a dying cult of personality state from the ground level).
This kind of denuclearization was not based on restricting access to the technology. It was made by good, old-fashioned diplomacy. The days when we could prevent countries from developing nuclear weapons by restricting their access to the technology are completely over. My father worked for Seaborg in the old AEC. He was part of the development of the whole atoms for peace idea. I grew up with this idea. Those days are gone forever. To make the argument that some reactor design will make it easier to make a bomb is pointless. It is easy for a nation-state to make nuclear weapons. The only requirement now is the political will to build one. That a nation-state has to spend 200 million dollars instead of 300 million dollars to develop their weapons program because of some new reactor design is a pretty silly argument for making everyone pay more for electricity. And none of the technology is going to allow the local crazy build one in his basement. The only ways to fight proliferation now is through either diplomacy or naked aggression. I think we will all agree that the latter is unthinkable outside of nightmares.

I think I may have failed to communicate my point here. Nothing we do or refuse to do will return us to the days when only the US could build the atomic bomb. Once India (I don't blame them at all) went nuclear, there was no way to get the genie back in the bottle. The Atoms for Peace scheme was dependent on everyone playing ball. Once the rules were broken, the game was over. I agree that non-proliferation is an important goal, but it no longer helps for us to use old designs or to restrict commisioning of new power plants. Frankly, it hasn't made any real sense since 1974. Tell me that you want to implement a new Atoms for Peace initiative that takes into account the current political and scientific realities, and I will likely get behind you on it. To question whether we should build a billion dollar fusion reactor because it could make tritium that could be used in a bomb... There is no sane logic to it.
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TallDave
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Post by TallDave »

This kind of denuclearization was not based on restricting access to the technology. It was made by good, old-fashioned diplomacy.
Of course. But it's very relevant to the question of whether nonproliferation is possible and/or worth pursuing. The number of nuclear weapons extant has been shrinking for some time.
Nothing we do or refuse to do will return us to the days when only the US could build the atomic bomb.
I don't think anyone believes that is possible. Hell, you can just about build one based on info from the Wikipedia page.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bomb

Art's correct, though, that allowing breeders makes it a lot easier for countries to secretly make bombs under the guise of an ostensibly peaceful program. The most difficult part of creating a bomb is enrichment. And breeders aren't really necessary given the current uranium supply situation.

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

Brian H wrote:
MSimon wrote:
Brian H wrote:Well, if PolyWell &/or Focus Fusion get going, economics would/should shut down virtually every fission power plant (not to mention coal and other thermal generating plant) on the planet on a much faster schedule than even the most aggressive political initiatives and decisions would. Anyone willing to pay 5-20x extra, respectively, for power? Only the most determined arms-making countries.
But that cuts both ways. A source of cheap neutrons would be an excellent way of making bomb material.
What neutrons would those be? FF, at least, is p-B aneutronic. If you want neutrons, fission is fine.
If it will burn pBj it can burn D-D. One FF for a power source one FF for a neutron generator.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

KitemanSA
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Post by KitemanSA »

MSimon wrote:
Brian H wrote:
MSimon wrote:blah.
blah.
If it will burn pBj it can burn D-D. One FF for a power source one FF for a neutron generator.
If you want neutrons, build a fusor.

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

KitemanSA wrote:
MSimon wrote:
Brian H wrote:blah.
If it will burn pBj it can burn D-D. One FF for a power source one FF for a neutron generator.
If you want neutrons, build a fusor.
I was hoping for a little higher efficiency than a fusor. Something on the lines of 10% or better vs .001% (at best) for a fusor.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

chrismb
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Post by chrismb »

MSimon wrote:Something on the lines of 10% or better vs .001% (at best) for a fusor.
er... I think you mean 0.000001% (1E-8 at best) for a fusor...

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

chrismb wrote:
MSimon wrote:Something on the lines of 10% or better vs .001% (at best) for a fusor.
er... I think you mean 0.000001% (1E-8 at best) for a fusor...
Probably. I was trying to put the most optimistic case forward.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

alexjrgreen
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Post by alexjrgreen »

TallDave wrote:Eventually all nations will be liberal democracies; it's the natural end state of human political organization.
We already have multi-national companies. To tax them effectively would require a world government. Come to think of it, their taxes could pay for the UN...
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Helius
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Post by Helius »

alexjrgreen wrote: To tax them effectively would require a world government.
Everyone seems to have their own view of what "effective" taxation is, but you're also denying the antecedent. 'if world government, only then is effective taxation possible.' http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denying_the_antecedent

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

The UN? I guess Oil for Palaces will be the norm then. i.e. taking food out of the mouths of children so dictators can build palaces while the well connected get to skim off the top.

BTW did any one notice that the UN is not full of liberal democracies? In fact dictators and other similar types are in the majority in the UN.

Evidently there are a lot of folks in the world who hunger to be ruled by an iron hand.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

Soylent
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Post by Soylent »

Art Carlson wrote:Yeah. Ridiculing those who disagree with you is easier than seriously engaging their arguments.
Beyond the patently ridiculous, deserving ridicule, what arguments have they advanced?

Soylent
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Post by Soylent »

BTW the 1955 document "utredning av betingelserna för framställning av atomvapen i Sverige"(investigation of the requirements for producing atomic weapons in Sweden) generated some cost estimates for producing the fissile material for 3 unboosted, conventional fission weapons per year. The whole document is not available, but parts of it are available through various documents published by SKI('state nuclear inspection agency') on the Swedish nuclear weapons programme.

Heavy-water moderated reactor with online refueling + chemical separation facility(Pu-239):
250 million SEK capital costs, 30 miljon SEK/year operational cost, 600-700 employees.

Gaseous diffusion(U-235): 275 million SEK capital cost, 60 million SEK/year operational cost, 600-700 employees.

Electromagnetic separation(pressumably something like the calutron, U-235): 1200 million SEK capital cost, 200 million SEK/year operational cost, 2000 employees.

A calutron is about a factor 3 worse than gaseous diffusion, which produced much of the weaponsgrade uranium for the US weapons programme.

Art Carlson
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Post by Art Carlson »

Soylent wrote:
Art Carlson wrote:Yeah. Ridiculing those who disagree with you is easier than seriously engaging their arguments.
Beyond the patently ridiculous, deserving ridicule, what arguments have they advanced?
Either you weren't paying attention or we are talking about different "theys".

This thread started with a news item about the proliferation potential of fusion energy research. I agree that this is not high on the list of either the problems of fusion energy or the proliferation hazards in the world, but there is a lot of ground between being minor and being ridiculous. Back when I was working at the Institute for Plasma Physics in Garching/Munich, there was a scandal because a staff scientist had secretly sold technology for tritium storage to Pakistan. I'm sure the Pakistanis could have gotten the technology some place else or even done without it, but the fact is they thought it was worth their while to get it from a fusion lab.

My main argument, other than finding your tone reprehensible, was that if the world decided not to use nuclear power for energy production, then it would have a significantly easier job enforcing a diplomatically achieved non-proliferation regime. This seemed to be covered by your playstation rant, but maybe you had a different scenario in mind?

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