How close do you think we are from a third world war?

[paperburn1]

speaking of china exploding
http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg ... z30OijpE5L

[Skipjack]

Your anti-american stance colors your judgement and perception.

After all those years you still do not understand me. I simply keep a broader perspective on things and I am aware that things are not black and white.
You know that I currently work in the US, that the US is my home of choice. That I am married to a woman from the US that my son is a US citizen.
Your anti "everything that is not the US" stance clouds your judgment.

By the way, you can win a nuclear war. The U.S. did.

Not against Russia.

There is no necessity to put "missile defense" in Ukraine. If it was there, it would be completely irrelevant to Russia anyway. I don't think you get how it works.

Well, then why did the US try to put missile defense into Poland?

it is pretty obvious that the US was planning to instate a puppet government instead of the ELECTED government

The U.S., contrary to your internet conspiracy view of world affairs, had no control over what happened in Kiev. And in fact, the Obamanation made a clear point of staying neutral and out of it. "We support the right for self determination". I woul dlove to see you defend this observation with some kind of proof. I doubt you can.
This is a fine example of your unfounded interpretation of things as they are.

Uhum:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdygnTrrGVI

Please cite for me where Europe kicked Russian ass in WWII. The best you have is Germany, and that did not go well.

Well, we had a bit more than just Russia to deal with, you know...

So glad we did not go into Syria

What is this "we" shit Austrian man?

Again, you know shit about me, you fool!

On the mythical benefit to the military industrial complex, you are out to lunch. Every time we roll troops, it takes away from procurement. You really have no idea how the current system's economics works. We don't have money to fight right now. Our kit is in great need of some depot level refurbishment.

I agree that we do not have the money to spend on yet another war. That was my point! The arms industry however does benefit a lot from wars and not all of the US weapons are produced in the US. Some are entirely or in part produced elsewhere. Many of these companies are also multinationals that do not care about whether a war costs the US taxpayer billions. The top 0.01%ers in charge are well off either way. Was like that in every single war.

Be careful there, I know for sure that a lot of that was staged.

Really? How? Prove your bold assertation.

http://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/den ... 61678.html
Some of the videos that allegedly show Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine have been found to have been staged.
I am not saying that Russia is in the right or the west is in the wrong. I am saying that the situation is a lot more complicated than that. This is not a black and white conflict.

You can not compare NK to Russia.

I was not comparing the two. They are apples and oranges. Unfortunately, the Little Fat Child is prone to thinking he is a tough guy like Putin.

This makes no sense whatsoever. They are not the same, so why would it have any affect on NKs behavior? They are NOT the same. Quod licet Iovi non licet bovi. Every time NK does something foolish, China turns away from them more. Once they have lost Chinas support, they are fair game. Its as simple as that. The worse they behave, the better for us. The fat child is just stomping his foot trying to get some attention. Best not to give him any. That hurts him the most.

They are out of Georgia, they are in Abkhazia and South Ossetia via bilateral agreements by the local governments

Again, overwhlemingly niave. I don't know what to say. I'll try with this; Russia is NOT out of Georgia.

Where in Georgia are they?! According to all sources, I have seen, they have left Georgia. They are still in Abkhazia and South Ossetia (and after the massacres Georgia did there, that's good), but that is it.

And those "bilateral agreements" are about as valid as Crimea's annexation was.

Not comparable.

There are serious news reports from European countries (large media outlets there), that cast serious doubts about the situation in Ukraine as it is depicted by the US media. I do have the benefit of speaking multiple languages.

In fact, I would wager that I have a much broader view of cross language reporting than you do. Goes with the job.

Considering that your view is so broad, it comes over pretty black and white and one sided. It might have just as well been sourced from FOX and CNN.

Putin's rhetoric about "Missile Defense" is for his internal audience. He does not see it as a threat. You are niave again.

This is based on what?

If it really mattered to him, do you think he would be stirring things up like he is?

Well, if it did not, would he? This makes no sense. Poland, is all I say, Poland!

And try shit he will. Putin is far from done, and only encouraged by recent events.

I doubt it. I might be wrong, but I seriously doubt it.

Yeah, because all that has always worked so well historically

Yes it has for the short term gain dictator. Very well indeed. That is why they keep doing it. They don't care about the country, they only care about themselves. How many times do I have to remind you of that?

This is a silly thought. Dictators of course care about staying in power in the long term. Dictators rarely die in bed as it is...

Well so far his expansion and growth has been VERY limited, unlike the growth and expansion of NATO and western allies...

As I stated above, to date, NATO expansion has been a liability.

I do even agree with that. But it is the intention behind it, not the result that is worrisome to the Russians.

You can not win a nuclear war, period.

Again, yes you can.

Not if the other side has a sizeable number of nukes (and delivery systems) too.

China is about to get stronger than the US economically

Maybe not. Folks thought Japan would displace the US as well. Look where they are, 25 years of train wreck.
China's train wreck is already in progress. You just don't know enough about China to get it. Multi-language Open Source Reporting. Gotta love it.

http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/04/the-ec ... us-vs.html
I don't know. It might still turn around like you say. I do actually hope so. But right now, it does not look like it will.

[ladajo]

After all those years you still do not understand me. I simply keep a broader perspective on things and I am aware that things are not black and white.
You know that I currently work in the US, that the US is my home of choice. That I am married to a woman from the US that my son is a US citizen.
Your anti "everything that is not the US" stance clouds your judgment.

My issue is that you persist to bash the country you claim to be attached too. It makes you somewhat of a hypocrit.
I do understand that you try to take an open view, however your view is skewed normally by your cultural background to be pro-europe and anti-US. I think this is because over the years you have been somewhat conditioned by the suppositions and propaganda you pull out of European press as "gospel". It is not. Not any more than US media, and probably often less.

Bottom line. You are not a US citizen, so that inherently limits your ability to make proclaimations on what is wrong with the US and what it should do about it.

After all these years you still do not understand me. I agree and disagree with many things that we do as a nation. It is might constitutional right to do so. It is also my constitutional right to express those thoughts and act on them within the bounds of our law (which granted is becoming more and more difficult as the law is pushed further into grey and unclear bounds courtesy of leftist lawyers and politicians). I would also note that while you enjoy some constitutional rights by virtue of living here currently, you do not enjoy all of them. You want to talk as equals, then become a citizen.

Not against Russia

See my comment in the other thread. Yes, you can. And no, you don't know what you are talking about. You don't even have an accurate doctrinal definition of what a "nuclear war" is, or the types thereof. You are at best a google based Layman. War outcome is based on objectives. Acheivement objectives is the basis for measuring outcome of a war. These are things that you have at best, limited understanding of. Not your fault, just a fact of your circumstance.

Well, then why did the US try to put missile defense into Poland?

This makes my point about you not knowing how the system is designed to work.

Uhum:

US policy and rhetoric from the White House was and has been for self-determination in Ukraine. You are taking a Russian NSA (which you don' t think exists or spys on anyone like the evil US does) produced phone intercept out of context does not support your position. Spend some time listneing to Jay Carney and reading the Whitehouse and State point papers.
The message, policy and intent is clear. It is as clear as it is unfortunately ineffective. Oh, and you should note that the what drove the frick the EU comment was the assessed inability for the EU to come to any useful conclusion as a group in a useful amount of time.

Well, we had a bit more than just Russia to deal with, you know...

Yes, I agree. I also find it amusing how at times you are German, and other times your are Austrian, and then sometimes even try to be American. It seems to be a relation of convenience for you.

Again, you know shit about me, you fool!

See above. Note again that if you want to say "we" then you need to become a U.S. citizen.

The arms industry however does benefit a lot from wars and not all of the US weapons are produced in the US.

The US arms industry no longer benefits from war. They make real money from maintenance and system aquisitions. They do not make real money from replacement of consumables. If you were truly informed you would know that long ago most of the Ordnance production plants (Blah-Blah Army Ammunition Plant) were dismantled or put in lay-up. This actually caused somewhat of a problem for certain flavors of consumables over the last ten years or so. That does not mean they are re-building or re-starting all the plants. Very little (by law) of US systems and consumables are foreign sourced. It is getting less every cycle due to concerns of reliability and security.
You really don't understand the last 30 or so years of defence contracting economic dynamics. Simply put. War is bad for the industry as it takes away money for maintenance contracts and new system aquisitions which is where the real money is in the defense industry.

This is not a black and white conflict.

Probably the most useful thing you have said. As for your cited proof, again you are greatly lacking. You offer a hearsay article suggesting that there were both flavors of snipers at Maiden Square and they both shot at protestors to stir things up.
The article bases this on some hearsay commentary and possible radio intercepts. Did it occur to you that those transmissions might have been faked? Did it occur to you that there may have been a special team of government shooters that were not on the same net as the recorded teams? Did it occur to you that alsmot everyone has encyrpted handhelds and repeators now, especially state forces, and if so, how is it transmissions were captured in the clear? One would think that at a minimum the "elite" units would be encrypted...
There are so many holes in that article it looks like a seive. Even the title, "The were shot from both ways" is misleading. Are there any photos or doctor testimony that shows a protestor with simultaneous front and back wounds?
You put way to much faith into "reporting", especially for one that claims to stand back and take a balanced view.
Every idiot with half a brain knows that Russian forces have been and are operating in the Ukraine.

They are not the same, so why would it have any affect on NKs behavior?

I am almost speachless at your level of niavity here. Of course the Russian are NK are not the same. But if you can't see that the Little Fat Child doesn't see what Putin is up too and is taking cues and ideas from this Dictator Role Model, then you are just lost on this topical lane. There are many parallels between NK and Russia. You are apparently too uninformed to see them. I can't help you with that. And, for the record, attention seeking unstable children escalate actions until attention is given. Where do you want to put that level of misbehaviour line? Nuking of Seoul?

According to all sources, I have seen, they have left Georgia

You are niave. I'll leave it at that.

Not comparable.

Absolutely comparable. You too easily buy into propaganda. It must be your EU cultural DNA.

Considering that your view is so broad, it comes over pretty black and white and one sided

I do have a very wide and useful source base and view. My nature is to boil things down to the lowest level I can. That is why it appears "black and white and one sided". If I am unsure I state so. If I have enough material and analysis to support a conclusion, I state it.
I find it funny that you try to bin two polar opposite media sources in the same bucket. FOX = Right, CNN = Left in case you missed the memo. I follow both.
In fact, I also personally know Jim LeMay at CNN, but that does not mean I agree with everything they publish nor the Editorial positions they take.

Poland, is all I say, Poland!

See above. Irrelevant. Putin knows full well how the Missile Defense system works. He uses it as an internal propaganda tool to enhance his power base.

Dictators of course care about staying in power in the long term. Dictators rarely die in bed as it is...

Then you do not understand the Psychology of being a Dictator. They are about the here and now, not the tomorrow. When they do think about tomorrow, it is about how much more cool and grand they personally will be, not about the country and the people. You need to read up on extreme egos and meglomania.
Dictators are perfectly happy to burn down the house they live in if it furthers the egocentric thinking. Happens almost everytime. That is the number one reason they "don't die in bed...".

But it is the intention behind it

What is the intention behind it? Think of this as a quiz.

Not if the other side has a sizeable number of nukes (and delivery systems) too.

Again see above and other thread. You don't know what you are talking about here.

I don't know. It might still turn around like you say.

Seriously, China is in a slow motion political/economic flaming train wreck right now. Too many factors are invovled to list here. As for economic comparison, you sould note that where the U.S. imports ~25 million barrels of oil/day, China imports about 5 million/day for 4 times the population. Does that tell you anything?

[Skipjack]

My issue is that you persist to bash the country you claim to be attached too. It makes you somewhat of a hypocrit.
I do understand that you try to take an open view, however your view is skewed normally by your cultural background to be pro-europe and anti-US. I think this is because over the years you have been somewhat conditioned by the suppositions and propaganda you pull out of European press as "gospel". It is not. Not any more than US media, and probably often less?

Dude, you should see me talk about the politicians/politics in Austria and the EU! In fact, I cant even read Austrian news anymore without getting into a rage
Also, you can be critical of some of the politicians and some of the politics and still love the people and the country. There is nothing excluding one from the other.

Bottom line. You are not a US citizen, so that inherently limits your ability to make proclaimations on what is wrong with the US and what it should do about it.

After all these years you still do not understand me. I agree and disagree with many things that we do as a nation. It is might constitutional right to do so. It is also my constitutional right to express those thoughts and act on them within the bounds of our law (which granted is becoming more and more difficult as the law is pushed further into grey and unclear bounds courtesy of leftist lawyers and politicians). I would also note that while you enjoy some constitutional rights by virtue of living here currently, you do not enjoy all of them. You want to talk as equals, then become a citizen

I think that in most instances when the bill of rights talks about freedoms and liberties, especially the freedom of speech, it talks about "persons", not citizens. Unless of course, you do not regard non US citizens are persons. I guess that is a "valid" point of view and somewhat reflected in your comments.

Not against Russia

See my comment in the other thread. Yes, you can. And no, you don't know what you are talking about. You don't even have an accurate doctrinal definition of what a "nuclear war" is, or the types thereof. You are at best a google based Layman. War outcome is based on objectives. Acheivement objectives is the basis for measuring outcome of a war. These are things that you have at best, limited understanding of. Not your fault, just a fact of your circumstance.

Uhm, I understand that at some point there are objectives that are meant to be met by using nuclear weapons, but once the threshold has been crossed, things will escalate real quickly and we end up with an unrestricted nuclear war.

This makes my point about you not knowing how the system is designed to work.

LOL, so you are arguing what exactly? That we were not going to put missile defense into Poland, that were going to put missile defense into Poland? What?

US policy and rhetoric from the White House was and has been for self-determination in Ukraine.

Yes, but with some influence from the US, where it is useful. I mean why else would they talk about what politician to put into what position, etc. And as I said, it might not be the whole truth, but it is part of the reason why I say that the situation there is not just black and white, but grey. And I am actually very annoyed with the Russians taking Crimea and I have voiced that in the past. I do think however that it is of no benefit to Russia. It will only hurt them.

You are taking a Russian NSA (which you don' t think exists or spys on anyone like the evil US does)

Excuse me what? Of course Russia has an equivalent to the NSA. Why would I think otherwise? I never said otherwise either. You are putting words into my mouth here, Mr!

Well, we had a bit more than just Russia to deal with, you know...

I also find it amusing how at times you are German, and other times your are Austrian, and then sometimes even try to be American. It seems to be a relation of convenience for you

Ad hominem and irrelevant for the conversation.

Again, you know shit about me, you fool!

See above. Note again that if you want to say "we" then you need to become a U.S. citizen

I don't think that is what the law says. Besides, "we" could also mean as "us people from the west", as in "not Russia".

The US arms industry no longer benefits from war. They make real money from maintenance and system aquisitions. They do not make real money from replacement of consumables. If you were truly informed you would know that long ago most of the Ordnance production plants (Blah-Blah Army Ammunition Plant) were dismantled or put in lay-up. This actually caused somewhat of a problem for certain flavors of consumables over the last ten years or so. That does not mean they are re-building or re-starting all the plants. Very little (by law) of US systems and consumables are foreign sourced. It is getting less every cycle due to concerns of reliability and security.
You really don't understand the last 30 or so years of defence contracting economic dynamics. Simply put. War is bad for the industry as it takes away money for maintenance contracts and new system aquisitions which is where the real money is in the defense industry.

This is just silly.

This is not a black and white conflict.

Probably the most useful thing you have said. As for your cited proof, again you are greatly lacking. You offer a hearsay article suggesting that there were both flavors of snipers at Maiden Square and they both shot at protestors to stir things up.
The article bases this on some hearsay commentary and possible radio intercepts. Did it occur to you that those transmissions might have been faked? Did it occur to you that there may have been a special team of government shooters that were not on the same net as the recorded teams? Did it occur to you that alsmot everyone has encyrpted handhelds and repeators now, especially state forces, and if so, how is it transmissions were captured in the clear? One would think that at a minimum the "elite" units would be encrypted...
There are so many holes in that article it looks like a seive. Even the title, "The were shot from both ways" is misleading. Are there any photos or doctor testimony that shows a protestor with simultaneous front and back wounds?
You put way to much faith into "reporting", especially for one that claims to stand back and take a balanced view.
Every idiot with half a brain knows that Russian forces have been and are operating in the Ukraine.

My article was using actual information, you are simply constructing a story that fits what you would like to have happened. My point is that the situation in Ukraine is NOT clear at all and that there are a lot of players on both sides that are NOT nice people.

They are not the same, so why would it have any affect on NKs behavior?

I am almost speachless at your level of niavity here. Of course the Russian are NK are not the same. But if you can't see that the Little Fat Child doesn't see what Putin is up too and is taking cues and ideas from this Dictator Role Model, then you are just lost on this topical lane. There are many parallels between NK and Russia. You are apparently too uninformed to see them. I can't help you with that. And, for the record, attention seeking unstable children escalate actions until attention is given. Where do you want to put that level of misbehaviour line? Nuking of Seoul?

Again, quod licet iovi, non licet bovi. Just because Putin can "get away" (I would not really call it that, but I guess that also depends on your personal twisted world view) does not mean that the fat child would get away with it. Clearly, you are putting your disdain for Obama above all reasonable judgment.

According to all sources, I have seen, they have left Georgia

You are niave. I'll leave it at that.

Ad hominem, again! Maybe you provide some sources that say otherwise instead of throwing around offenses all the time, I would take you a bit more seriously. But what you are doing is not a conversation, or even a discussion it is an attack without any actual ammo.

Not comparable.

Absolutely comparable. You too easily buy into propaganda. It must be your EU cultural DNA.

Again, wrong, see above.

I find it funny that you try to bin two polar opposite media sources in the same bucket. FOX = Right, CNN = Left in case you missed the memo. I follow both.
In fact, I also personally know Jim LeMay at CNN, but that does not mean I agree with everything they publish nor the Editorial positions they take

I agree that CNN is more left and FOX is more right (and I have stated as much in the past), but I have noticed that on certain topics the western mainstream media is almost too aligned. Certain details are not reported on at all, at times.
German and other European media see a bit more nuanced in their reporting on some events (not on all).

Poland, is all I say, Poland!

See above. Irrelevant. Putin knows full well how the Missile Defense system works. He uses it as an internal propaganda tool to enhance his power base.

Why is it irrelevant?

Dictators of course care about staying in power in the long term. Dictators rarely die in bed as it is...

Then you do not understand the Psychology of being a Dictator. They are about the here and now, not the tomorrow. When they do think about tomorrow, it is about how much more cool and grand they personally will be, not about the country and the people. You need to read up on extreme egos and meglomania.
Dictators are perfectly happy to burn down the house they live in if it furthers the egocentric thinking. Happens almost everytime. That is the number one reason they "don't die in bed..."

Come on! This is idiotic. Putin is not that stupid (though he does not strike me as extremely smart, but few politicians are).

Not if the other side has a sizeable number of nukes (and delivery systems) too.

Again see above and other thread. You don't know what you are talking about here.

Uhm, no I think you don't know what you are talking about there. But please enlighten me! Give me references to serious documents that state that a nuclear war can be won with little enough damage to the economy, population and the environment, that it can be called a victory (especially if you are left vulnerable to other attacking parties, or "aid troops" in the aftermath).

I don't know. It might still turn around like you say.

Seriously, China is in a slow motion political/economic flaming train wreck right now. Too many factors are invovled to list here. As for economic comparison, you sould note that where the U.S. imports ~25 million barrels of oil/day, China imports about 5 million/day for 4 times the population. Does that tell you anything?

Uhm, that the US is sending too much money to the Saudis?

Oh, btw it seems like someone at CNN read my mind:
http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/30/world/eur ... ?hpt=hp_t2

[ladajo]

Dude, you should see me talk about the politicians/politics in Austria and the EU! In fact, I cant even read Austrian news anymore without getting into a rage
Also, you can be critical of some of the politicians and some of the politics and still love the people and the country. There is nothing excluding one from the other

I agree. However, you reach a limit when you start directing methods to fix it as a non-citizen. The other issue it that you don't gain full rights to full critique until you are all in and a citizen. Until that happens, you have no or limited buy in. In your case you may warrnat some limited buy in given your wife and child. But, they have more investment than you. Fact of life. Accept it.

I think that in most instances when the bill of rights talks about freedoms and liberties, especially the freedom of speech, it talks about "persons", not citizens.

This is the part that you don't get non-citizen. Let me help you:

"We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."

Which part of non-citizen makes you one of "We the People of the United States"?

And again, "I would also note that while you enjoy some constitutional rights by virtue of living here currently, you do not enjoy all of them. " In Particular you are considered a "person" under Article V. The rest of the Bill of Rights is directly or indirectly targeted for "The People", not you.

but once the threshold has been crossed, things will escalate real quickly and we end up with an unrestricted nuclear war.

And this is why you continue to demonstrate that you don't know what you are talking about. You have absolutely no basis to present this assumption other than your own opinion. And that is probably influenced by popular multi-media. Consider that all war is based in objectives and leave it at that. Yes, objectives can change during a war, but they remain the same. The side that does not have objectives has already lost. Given your limited to none understanding of theory of war, I guess I'll have to leave it at that.

That we were not going to put missile defense into Poland, that were going to put missile defense into Poland?

The point you are missing is what putting components of Missile Defense in Poland actually mean for Russia. Given how the system operates, little to none.
This is what you just don't get.

Yes, but with some influence from the US

So who do you think is trying harder to influence internal outcomes in Ukraine, the US or Putin? The US seeks self determination for all, a nuance lost on many who are unfamiliar with it. This is a point that has caused many a complaint by nations regarding the typical US choice to limit involvement when not directly threatened. And yes, as I have said earlier, I agree that in the long run Putin's actions are bad for Russia. My point regarding his actions is that he doesn't care about the long run for Russia. He only cares about himself.

Of course Russia has an equivalent to the NSA.

I am too tired to go back a look to see who said what about Russian intelligence capabilities. It may also have been another thread. I was thinking it was you who said that they had no capabilities to do intercepts. If not, then fair enough.

I also find it amusing how at times you are German, and other times your are Austrian, and then sometimes even try to be American.

Call it Ad hominem all you want, you know it is true. Colors of convenience.

I don't think that is what the law says. Besides, "we" could also mean as "us people from the west", as in "not Russia".

You know what you said, I won't bother re-quoting it. You know you meant "we" as in "american". You have done it before.
And as for what the law says, let me remind you again non-voter:

"We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."

This is just silly.

What is silly is your complete lack of understanding of Defense Economics. Let me try one more time:

War is bad for the industry as it takes away money for maintenance contracts and new system aquisitions which is where the real money is in the defense industry.

My article was using actual information

Your article used what people said. It did not use actual radio recordings nor provide proof of provenance or even critique for possible alteratives. It was not an article, it was a thinly disguised editorial comment using hearsay to back itself up. They even took hearsay for the radio comms quotes. They did not listen to the tapes themselves, nor investigate where they came from. That is not journalism.

My point is that the situation in Ukraine is NOT clear at all and that there are a lot of players on both sides that are NOT nice people.

I think you are buying into the Russian disinformation here too much. What is clear is that Putin is aggressively and directly meddling in the sovereign affairs of an independent state which he had a legal and binding obligation specifically not too. Putin's actions are putting at risk the entire construct of modern civilization and the right to self-determine. These concepts have existed formally since the Peace of Westphalia in 1648. Nations have fought many a war since then to strenghten the concepts, and Putin is pushing all of us back to another defining conflict in which many people will die with the sole entry argument of polishing Tzar Vlad's ego. You don't seem to get this.

quod licet iovi, non licet bovi.

Why don't you see that the Little Fat Child perceives his own rights, and act accordingly. You offer an argument that validates what I am saying. The Little Fat Child percieves that he has Privilege to play with his toys on his terms just as he sees Putin doing. And if you don't think LFC is watching what Putin is doing, as well as Iran, Assad, and some others, then you really don't belong in a discussion of this nature. Obama has no relevance to this, and I am not sure why you added that weak attempt at a personnal attack to justify your thinking. It just made you look a little disjointed, possibly silly.

Ad hominem, again!

Saying you are niave is not a personal attack. It is an observation. Your taking offense to it would seem to indicate a measure of truth.
Are you really saying that Russia is not operating in Georgia? Are you that niave as to how Russia conducts it business? Next you are going to tell me that Russia is not conducting operations in the US or Europe.

Again, wrong, see above.

Well, I guess we will have to think each other is wrong. I see comparison. You lack analytical insight.

Why is it irrelevant?

See above on Missile Defense. If you don't get it by now, you aren't going to. Do some reading on how the US BMD integrated system functions. Pay particular attention to detection orientations and envelopes, flight ballistics and intercept capabilities. You are going to learn something.

Putin is not that stupid

It is not about stupid. It is about what matters to Putin. And what matters to Putin is Tzar Vlad the Great, not Russia. Yes, he will burn his own house down, as have most of his ilk before him. History stands on my side.

Give me references to serious documents that state that a nuclear war can be won with little enough damage to the economy, population and the environment, that it can be called a victory

Again, theory of war. And no, I will not provide you with serious documents that discuss the prosecution of a nuclear conflict. That would put me in jail. The point is that you remain convinced that a nuclear conflict will become all out and global in nature. This is not certain, it is your assumption. You aren't thinking about the full possible range of nuclear use conflicts. Nor are you considering how objectives influence the prosecution of a war. For example, one of the great case studies in management of objectives and conflict is the Russo-Japanese War. Russia lost before it even started. The Japanese had even picked out the person and site to do the peace negotiation before the fight started. But I don't expect that you are familiar with these things or concepts. So far you have demonstrated you are not.

Uhm, that the US is sending too much money to the Saudis?

The US does not depend on the Middle East for Oil. Do a little research before you sideline yourself again.

The CNN article is exactly what I was talking about earlier. Again, Putin screwed himself. If he had stuck to the evil NATO theme then he would be more okay. However, he is the one who had been driving his army around attacking neighbors, not NATO. And again, to further your understanding, I ask you again, why has NATO been assessing more members?

[Skipjack]

Dude, you should see me talk about the politicians/politics in Austria and the EU! In fact, I cant even read Austrian news anymore without getting into a rage
Also, you can be critical of some of the politicians and some of the politics and still love the people and the country. There is nothing excluding one from the other

I agree. However, you reach a limit when you start directing methods to fix it as a non-citizen.

I am not sure what that means. I am not directing anything. I am simply talking about it. And the freedom of speech is arguably for everyone. The right to assembly could be argued to be for the people only. Though "the people" is a bit ambiguous here.

I think that in most instances when the bill of rights talks about freedoms and liberties, especially the freedom of speech, it talks about "persons", not citizens.

This is the part that you don't get non-citizen. Let me help you:

"We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America."

Where does it say that this is restricted to the citizens and does not include lawful residents?
Besides, freedom of speech is still for everyone. If you deny that to non Americans, then you have a serious moral issue at hand. In fact, I am even allowed to vote in some (few, but nevertheless) elections in the US now (though not federal ones). I can also legally make campaign contributions (yeah that pesky money is freedom of speech thing, again ).

Which part of non-citizen makes you one of "We the People of the United States"?

The part that lives here and pays taxes here.

And again, "I would also note that while you enjoy some constitutional rights by virtue of living here currently, you do not enjoy all of them. " In Particular you are considered a "person" under Article V. The rest of the Bill of Rights is directly or indirectly targeted for "The People", not you.

It nowhere restricts what "the people are", not from what I have seen anyway.

but once the threshold has been crossed, things will escalate real quickly and we end up with an unrestricted nuclear war.

And this is why you continue to demonstrate that you don't know what you are talking about. You have absolutely no basis to present this assumption other than your own opinion. And that is probably influenced by popular multi-media. Consider that all war is based in objectives and leave it at that. Yes, objectives can change during a war, but they remain the same. The side that does not have objectives has already lost. Given your limited to none understanding of theory of war, I guess I'll have to leave it at that.

And how many times have politicians and generals during a war changed from a restricted warfare to unrestricted warfare? One example I remember quite well:
In WW1, the German U- boat war against enemy merchant ships was restricted to "prise" rules. Submarines had to surface, send a boat with crew over that would then study the ships documents. If the ship was transporting enemy contraband, the crew was ordered to pack their documents and supplies, then go into lifeboats and then the ship was blown up with charges once everyone was out of harms way. Then the British has a great idea. They built so called "U- boat traps". Those were ships going under merchant flag that looked like merchant ships from a distance. Once a U-boat surfaced and set over crew to the merchant ship, they would raise the war flag and unhide cannons that would destroy the U-boat, or at least the little dingy with the helpless crew setting over.
Once the Germans had lost a few submarines and crew that way, they got angry and declared unrestricted U-boat warfare. And we all know how that escalated further, leading even to the US officially entering the war. Why should I believe that a limited and restricted nuclear war would not go a similar direction?
We hit them, they hit us. We hit them some more. They start hitting bases near large cities. Lots of bases are near large cities (San Antonio has how many air force bases? Three, if I remember correctly from the top of my head).
You think there would be much left of SA, once the nukes hit the hardened targets near San Antonio? Then Americans get angry and respond by nuking airfields near Moscow and then Russia gets angry and nukes Washington and before we know it, nukes hit all the major cities in the US and Russia. Good plan!

The point you are missing is what putting components of Missile Defense in Poland actually mean for Russia. Given how the system operates, little to none.
This is what you just don't get

So why exactly did we want to put it into Poland then?

So who do you think is trying harder to influence internal outcomes in Ukraine, the US or Putin?

This is why I am saying it is nuanced. Both are trying to influence it. Who is trying harder is a matter of interpretation of the evidence.

Of course Russia has an equivalent to the NSA.

I am too tired to go back a look to see who said what about Russian intelligence capabilities. It may also have been another thread. I was thinking it was you who said that they had no capabilities to do intercepts. If not, then fair enough.

Whoever it was, it was not me. Their intelligence is good, maybe better than the NSA in some aspects(!), though not as brute force when it comes to listening to everyone and everything, MAYBE ( at least I don't know for sure about them doing it, but I do suspect it anyway).

I also find it amusing how at times you are German, and other times your are Austrian, and then sometimes even try to be American.

Call it Ad hominem all you want, you know it is true. Colors of convenience.

No, it is a matter of heritage. I am a German Austrian (versus a Hungarian Austrian, or a Slovenian Austrian, etc) by birth and upbringing, who is living in the home country of his choice, the US.

This is just silly.

What is silly is your complete lack of understanding of Defense Economics.

It does not make sense. Wars mean money is needed for weapons, updating of weapons, deployment of weapons, etc. Bot all US weapons come from the US. Somewhere someone always makes a lot of money during times of war. With large arms corporations being multinationals, this is quite easy to see. It was like that in the past two world wars as well.

My article was using actual information

Your article used what people said. It did not use actual radio recordings nor provide proof of provenance or even critique for possible alteratives. It was not an article, it was a thinly disguised editorial comment using hearsay to back itself up. They even took hearsay for the radio comms quotes. They did not listen to the tapes themselves, nor investigate where they came from. That is not journalism.

Here is another article that sums this up some more, lies, lies, lies:
http://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/pol ... 84253.html

quod licet iovi, non licet bovi.

Why don't you see that the Little Fat Child perceives his own rights, and act accordingly

But he cant really do much anyway. Every now and then, he leaves a fart and then we stop sending them food and they are almost starved to death half the time already anyway.
He is pretty much gone, IMHO and we don't need to drop a single bomb on him for that.

Saying you are niave is not a personal attack. It is an observation. Your taking offense to it would seem to indicate a measure of truth.
Are you really saying that Russia is not operating in Georgia? Are you that niave as to how Russia conducts it business? Next you are going to tell me that Russia is not conducting operations in the US or Europe.

I was saying that their troops left Georgia. Georgia is not occupied anymore. I was not talking about intelligence operations, which the US has certainly just as many there as elsewhere.

Why is it irrelevant?

See above on Missile Defense. If you don't get it by now, you aren't going to. Do some reading on how the US BMD integrated system functions. Pay particular attention to detection orientations and envelopes, flight ballistics and intercept capabilities. You are going to learn something

Then why put them into Poland in the first place?

Give me references to serious documents that state that a nuclear war can be won with little enough damage to the economy, population and the environment, that it can be called a victory

Again, theory of war. And no, I will not provide you with serious documents that discuss the prosecution of a nuclear conflict.

So you have nothing.

Uhm, that the US is sending too much money to the Saudis?

The US does not depend on the Middle East for Oil. Do a little research before you sideline yourself again.

Well according to you, we are certainly buying oil from someone...

The CNN article is exactly what I was talking about earlier. Again, Putin screwed himself. If he had stuck to the evil NATO theme then he would be more okay. However, he is the one who had been driving his army around attacking neighbors, not NATO. And again, to further your understanding, I ask you again, why has NATO been assessing more members?

[/quote]
Well, that is all a matter of perspective, I guess.

[ladajo]

This discussion has past the point of ridiculous on several points. You do not have the depth or background to discuss these things to the level you aspire to. It is not your fault or error this is so, again, it is simply due to your background. You are out of your depth. I am speaking at levels beyond your recognition.

One of my degrees is an MA in National Security Studies with a sub-major in Irregular Warfare. Granted it was maritime dominant as I studied at the Naval War College, however there was a decent Joint dimension, and I have other Joint experience and education to draw on. The curriculum included in depth study and analysis of the Theory of War and the operational and strategic levels of war. It included in depth looks into politics, national and defense economics, history, as well as international realtions and theoretical and applied studies. Since, I have used this part (and others) of my education in various settings to include operations and research & analysis of nuclear warfare, all scales of conventional warfare, international operations, national operations to include civil, military and combined civil military. The list goes on and I won't bore you. I have thirty years of professional experience in this arena and it has and continues to expose me to things you can only dream of or guess at.

I am not sure what that means.

That about sums it up.

In your little diatribe about how unfare the British were, you forgot about timelines and sequences of events. Convenient. This must be the German you seeking redress of "injustice". It more came across like a pouting child. Look this book up and give it a read: "Under Ten Flags".

As for your theory of nuclear escalation. Very Hollywood. Love it. Slim Pickens would be proud.
Reality is much more complex.

You did not answer my question about who is driving attempts at internal influence in Ukraine more. Putin or the US?
Man up, take a stand.

Their intelligence is good, maybe better than the NSA in some aspects(!),

Well, uhh.... no comment.

who is living in the home country of his choice, the US.

Then become a citizen. Arnold would be proud.

It does not make sense.

Because you don't know what you are talking about.

Wars mean money is needed for weapons, updating of weapons, deployment of weapons, etc.

No.
Wars mean money for operations and consumables.
There is a finite pot of money.
Burning more on O means less for M, POR development & System Aquisitions.
Once again, the real margins are in M & Systems Aquisitions.
Why do you think congress had to pony up OCO? DoD was bust without it. And even with OCO, we have taken hude O hits that have had massive long term impacts on M & reset needs. It will be years if not a decade or more before we reset (if ever).
I am aware that these concepts and relationships are new to you. So please do not look like an ass and try to google your way forward. It will be clear that you have again.

Die Ukraine-Krise - das ist auch ein Krieg der Worte, ein Krieg der Lügen.

Probably the most accurate thing said. Especially in regard to Putin.
As for the events at the Kramatorsk Airfield, I can not comment here. I will leave it to say that the FOCUS folks are far short of actual events, both at the onset, and in the days since.

Das ist hier mein dritter Krieg - nach Tschetschenien und Irak.

This is another clue to the answer of the question of internal meddling above.
I am happy that you found an article that helps the case against Putin.

But he cant really do much anyway.

LFC would beg to differ. Seoul may also beg to differ after a WMD attack. At least those still alive.

Then why put them into Poland in the first place?

Just look it up. Then you will understand. Oh my freaking god...<double face palm>

So you have nothing.

Really? After all the bones I tossed you that is all you can say. Right.
I'll shoot STRATCOM an email an tell them to put you on distro.

Well according to you, we are certainly buying oil from someone...

<Double Face Palm Again>
And it sure ain't much from the Saudis.
Look it up, you'll be enlighted. But I warn you, it will fly in the face of your deeply embeded EuroGanda regarding US motivations.
You might not like it.
I really thought you were better informed.

Well, that is all a matter of perspective, I guess.

Man up, I know it is against your Euro-DNA, but take a position. Make a stand.
Pluuuuhheeeeease. Pretty please? With sugar on it? And stuff?
You might learn something.
Again.

[Skipjack]

One of my degrees is an MA in National Security Studies with a sub-major in Irregular Warfare. Granted it was maritime dominant as I studied at the Naval War College, however there was a decent Joint dimension, and I have other Joint experience and education to draw on. The curriculum included in depth study and analysis of the Theory of War and the operational and strategic levels of war. It included in depth looks into politics, national and defense economics, history, as well as international realtions and theoretical and applied studies. Since, I have used this part (and others) of my education in various settings to include operations and research & analysis of nuclear warfare, all scales of conventional warfare, international operations, national operations to include civil, military and combined civil military. The list goes on and I won't bore you. I have thirty years of professional experience in this arena and it has and continues to expose me to things you can only dream of or guess at.

Fine, I take your word on the wonderful strategies. And I never doubted that these exist and that is what they will all go into the war with. But I also have the history of two world wars in my country to know that the great ideas about strategies at the beginning of a war are all thrown out a few months in when shit comes hitting the fan and then things escalate and civilians die and countries are in rubble and ashes and generations afterwards ask "how was this possible" and swear "never again". But the last members of that generation are dying and the new generations don't know anymore what all of this means and so it starts all over again and this time it will be worse, much worse.

In your little diatribe about how unfare the British were, you forgot about timelines and sequences of events. Convenient. This must be the German you seeking redress of "injustice". It more came across like a pouting child. Look this book up and give it a read: "Under Ten Flags".

It was not my point to pout about the unfair British, but to show how quickly something can escalate from an orderly warfare to unrestricted warfare. If anything you are helping me make my point.
It does not matter who "started it". It only matters what the outcome is in the end and it is always the same. A lot of people die!
And since we are recommending books, I also suggest you read "Alarm Tauchen!", by Werner Furbringer. This is from a person who was actually there in person and lived to tell the tale.

As for your theory of nuclear escalation. Very Hollywood. Love it. Slim Pickens would be proud.
Reality is much more complex.

I agree that reality is much more complex, but I also know that humans are generally very stupid and I have no doubt that they will let things escalate, especially if they think they are on the loosing side. I also want to remind you of the revenge bombings of Dresden and Berlin at the very end of the war. Those were completely unnecessary at the time. There was very little there of tactical value. It was simply a way to break the final resistance psychologically. Another good example is the use of gas in the trench wars in WW1. It started with someone smelling gas and before you know it people get gassed to death on all sides. These are a prime reason why I know things will escalate. They did in the past, they will again. They always do.

You did not answer my question about who is driving attempts at internal influence in Ukraine more. Putin or the US?
Man up, take a stand.

I honestly don't know. I think it is Putin who is pushing more, but I think he is mostly using the opportunity that he got from the chaos in the Ukraine that was home made (well mostly anyway).
I sure as hell am not happy about the way he annexed Crimea. Of course the whole "self determination" thing is a double edged sword and is used by both sides to justify their position.
I also absolutely despise the current Ukrainian government. Nothing but scumbags. And Timoshenko is a criminal that should rot in jail. I am sure she somehow was involved with setting up that "revolution" to get a jail free card. She sure had the financial means and connections for that.

Their intelligence is good, maybe better than the NSA in some aspects(!),

Well, uhh.... no comment.

Uhh, what? I said "in some aspects" with an exclamation mark after some aspects. It also is worse in others.

who is living in the home country of his choice, the US.

Then become a citizen. Arnold would be proud.

I might some day. Right now it looks like things beyond my control might move me somewhere else. I don't know where I will be in a few months from now.

Wars mean money is needed for weapons, updating of weapons, deployment of weapons, etc.

No.
Wars mean money for operations and consumables.
There is a finite pot of money.
Burning more on O means less for M, POR development & System Aquisitions.
Once again, the real margins are in M & Systems Aquisitions.
Why do you think congress had to pony up OCO? DoD was bust without it. And even with OCO, we have taken hude O hits that have had massive long term impacts on M & reset needs. It will be years if not a decade or more before we reset (if ever).
I am aware that these concepts and relationships are new to you. So please do not look like an ass and try to google your way forward. It will be clear that you have again.

I understand your point and I agree to some extent, but there is still a lot of money to be made with wars. And your "operations" is the same as my "deployment". A new cold war would be absolute bliss for the arms manufacturers and dealers of course.

Die Ukraine-Krise - das ist auch ein Krieg der Worte, ein Krieg der Lügen.

Probably the most accurate thing said. Especially in regard to Putin.
As for the events at the Kramatorsk Airfield, I can not comment here. I will leave it to say that the FOCUS folks are far short of actual events, both at the onset, and in the days since.

Das ist hier mein dritter Krieg - nach Tschetschenien und Irak.

This is another clue to the answer of the question of internal meddling above.
I am happy that you found an article that helps the case against Putin.

Yes they do and in other reports they also make a case against other players and their interests in the region. Either way there is a lot of false flag crap going on there and it is a huge mess. Whenever I see a huge mess that others made somewhere, I rather stay out. In my experience it never goes well.

But he cant really do much anyway.

LFC would beg to differ. Seoul may also beg to differ after a WMD attack. At least those still alive.

This is based on no facts whatsoever. There have been no WMD attacks. We don't even know for sure that they have any working WMDs. This is polemic.

Then why put them into Poland in the first place?

Just look it up. Then you will understand. Oh my freaking god...<double face palm>

I have and I don't get it, Germany would have been just as good and the Germans don't resist much to the US presence.

I'll shoot STRATCOM an email an tell them to put you on distro.

Thanks, some first hand information would be quite welcome, indeed

And it sure ain't much from the Saudis.

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_im ... mbbl_m.htm
Looks like plenty from OPEC and the gulf. Of course the most is from Canada, but OPEC is a large factor, not a minor one.

[ladajo]

the great ideas about strategies at the beginning of a war are all thrown out a few months in when shit comes hitting the fan and then things escalate and civilians die and countries are in rubble and ashes and generations afterwards ask "how was this possible" and swear "never again".

There are two things in here that you are still struggling a bit with.
1. The primary tenant of Planning and Operations is: No plan survives first contact with the enemy.
This is why professional militaries and real governments stick to objectives and goals as the baseline tenants. These can change as well, but it tends to be significantly harder to justify.

2. The second part addresses the concept of willingness to burn your own house down. This is a deeply studied psychological aspect of leadership during conflict. In summary, this tends to happen more when the leadership objectives do not align with national objectives. (Ie. Dictator does not consider needs of the people).

but to show how quickly something can escalate from an orderly warfare to unrestricted warfare.

My point is that you picked a bad example, and that you don't seem to have the full picture.
I have studied both WWI and WWII in depth, to include detailed looks at the maritime and submarine components.
Your sequencing and chain of events do not include analysis of the wider picture of submarine actions.
I have not read the book, but I will now. I am familiar with the writer, his was the boat that shelled a British Village in 1911 killing a woman.
I would recommend a recent read of mine that you may enjoy, "A Higher Call", it provides great insight into the German WWII fighter command from an insider.

These are a prime reason why I know things will escalate. They did in the past, they will again. They always do.

Detailed study indicates otherwise. You have a narrow perspective and thus can not perform a full scope analysis. There are many cases of conflict in hostory where escalation was avoided or contained. These tended to be the ones where both sides had clear entry objectives and desired end states. Widen your view, you may be less pessimistic. And this in no way means that I think conflict is a good thing, as you are right in one aspect. It will do harm to folks not directly involved. Look what Asad has wrought over the last three years. This is a good case study in objectives and end states. Asad has his objectives. The populace has theirs. Unfortunately, the populace has cometing divided internal objectives. Thus both (both is a loose term here, given one side has multiple components) sides are willing to burn the house down. And they are.

I think it is Putin who is pushing more,

Think on that. Do you think that Putin is more likely to have Special Operations and Intelligence supported Russian and imported (mercenary) combat and insurgency elements engaged in Ukraine than the US. Do you think the US or EU has any there?
I do not dispute that Ukraine is corrupt, and have mentioned it before. It is one of the reasons they were and are a long way off (if not one of the longest) from NATO membership (which Putin knows).
For the Record, Russia was also a NATO partner. Although that is over now, probably for a while (years). Funny how he forgets to mention to his "people" that he and his military were cooperating and conducting combined operations and events with the evil NATO.

Uhh, what?

I will not comment on this futher than yes it is obvious that Russia (Putin) has and is in love with its intelligence organization(s).

I don't know where I will be in a few months from now.

Good luck with that. Moving is tough, I have done it many many times. More than I care to remember.

A new cold war would be absolute bliss for the arms manufacturers and dealers of course.

This is my point. The system has evolved to support a steady state long term aquisitions construct. That is where the real margins are. Ten years of war has been really bad for this. We are in so deep with O, we have cut our throats on M and also procurement. Not to mention the procurement system is broken anyway.

there is a lot of false flag crap going on there

Maybe not as much as you think, and probably not as distributed as you think. I would wager significantly it is Putin centric.

There have been no WMD attacks. We don't even know for sure that they have any working WMDs.

I will comment no further on this outside of asking you to take note of LFC's and his father's own pronouncements.
And, if you are limiting your perspective to nuclear WMD, then you need to think more openly and widely.

I don't get it, Germany would have been just as good

I know you don't. Germany would not have been just as good. As I noted before, think about detection envelopes, ballistic arcs (both incoming and outgoing), and declared threat axis.
You'll get it. Putin does. But he won't say it in public beacuse it goes against his nationalist evil NATO rhetoric that he likes to leverage. Russian's have a deep need to blame others and have conspiracies. It is very European in outlook, you should be familiar.

Looks like plenty from OPEC and the gulf

OPEC does not mean the Gulf. You need to click the little boxes on the list for "All", "Persian Gulf", "OPEC", and "Non-OPEC". Then click the grpah button.
You will see the US is not beholden to Middle East Oil. The US divorced itself from Middle East oil decades ago, on purpose. The dependancy is a popular internet myth that supports many an internet conspiracy theory.
You are welcome for the educational point again.

[Skipjack]

the great ideas about strategies at the beginning of a war are all thrown out a few months in when shit comes hitting the fan and then things escalate and civilians die and countries are in rubble and ashes and generations afterwards ask "how was this possible" and swear "never again".

There are two things in here that you are still struggling a bit with.
1. The primary tenant of Planning and Operations is: No plan survives first contact with the enemy.
This is why professional militaries and real governments stick to objectives and goals as the baseline tenants. These can change as well, but it tends to be significantly harder to justify.

2. The second part addresses the concept of willingness to burn your own house down. This is a deeply studied psychological aspect of leadership during conflict. In summary, this tends to happen more when the leadership objectives do not align with national objectives. (Ie. Dictator does not consider needs of the people).

but to show how quickly something can escalate from an orderly warfare to unrestricted warfare.

My point is that you picked a bad example, and that you don't seem to have the full picture.
I have studied both WWI and WWII in depth, to include detailed looks at the maritime and submarine components.
Your sequencing and chain of events do not include analysis of the wider picture of submarine actions.
I have not read the book, but I will now. I am familiar with the writer, his was the boat that shelled a British Village in 1911 killing a woman".

These are a prime reason why I know things will escalate. They did in the past, they will again. They always do.

Detailed study indicates otherwise. You have a narrow perspective and thus can not perform a full scope analysis. There are many cases of conflict in hostory where escalation was avoided or contained. These tended to be the ones where both sides had clear entry objectives and desired end states. Widen your view, you may be less pessimistic.

IIRC, Furbringer had shelled a fortification at the shore (or he thought he did). I cant quite remember the details though. I read the book some 20 years ago.
As for the exact course of events. It does not matter to make my point. The escalation is always "started by the other guy" and it has always been the "other guys fault". I was trying to point out the end result which can not be disputed and that was that the Germans declared unrestricted U-boat warfare instead of the much more benign prise warfare. It is only one example of how a limited use of a weapon that aimed to restrict the harm to civilians escalated. I also pointed you to the use of poison gas in the trenches of WW1. Again the same thing. Someone started a very limited use of it (or maybe someone thought it had been used, or there was an accident, or whatever) and before you know it, people got gassed by the thousands.
Same goes for air raids. Someone started bombing only strategically important facilities. Then one bombing team drops a bomb on a civilian target (accidentally or not is irrelevant) and before we know it entire cities get carpet bombed with fire bombs and children and women get boiled to death.
I know that there are great theories about how to restrict warfare and how to maintain a "clean" nuclear war. But we both know that Russian guidance systems are still inferior to US guidance systems. So how certain are you that a Russian nuke wont hit a major US city by "accident" or not? And how sure are you that that wont trigger an equivalent response by US forces?

And this in no way means that I think conflict is a good thing, as you are right in one aspect. It will do harm to folks not directly involved. Look what Asad has wrought over the last three years. This is a good case study in objectives and end states. Asad has his objectives. The populace has theirs. Unfortunately, the populace has cometing divided internal objectives. Thus both (both is a loose term here, given one side has multiple components) sides are willing to burn the house down. And they are.

The whole situation in Syria stinks even more than the one in Ukraine. There is plenty of evidence that the rebels have been using gas as well and been blaming it on Assad. Looking at the horrible things committed by the rebels in Syria, this is not that hard to believe either. I have Syrian coworkers here and all of them used to be for the rebels originally, but switched to being neutral or even rooting for "Asshat" once the rebels got overtaken by Muslim radicals and Al Quaida (or worse). This is another conflict to better stay out of. Whoever wins there, we can only lose by getting involved.

I think it is Putin who is pushing more,

Do you think that Putin is more likely to have Special Operations and Intelligence supported Russian and imported (mercenary) combat and insurgency elements engaged in Ukraine than the US. Do you think the US or EU has any there?
I do not dispute that Ukraine is corrupt, and have mentioned it before. It is one of the reasons they were and are a long way off (if not one of the longest) from NATO membership (which Putin knows).
For the Record, Russia was also a NATO partner. Although that is over now, probably for a while (years). Funny how he forgets to mention to his "people" that he and his military were cooperating and conducting combined operations and events with the evil NATO.

Well we do know that the US had people there, CIA agents, e.g. Who has done more or less, well I believe that Russia certainly is a bit more "active" there. I would never dispute that.
I do not quite know what caused Russia to get so annoyed with NATO. Part of it might have been the whole Snowden spy stuff. A lot of people got pissed off about that. It certainly hurt the pride of a lot of US allies and (tsar) Putin is definitely a proud man
There might have been other things that did it. It just is again a typical escalation situation. Someone does something and then the other side responds and so on.
This reminds me of another good Uboat story by Terrence Robertson about Otto Kretschmer. During his captivity in Canada, there was an incident where someone (I don't know was it Hitler or Churchill) saw the other side hold POWs in shackles. This was against the Den Hague convention. So of course for propaganda reasons the other side would put a slightly larger number of POWs in shackles. And that went back and forth a few times until it caused a minor (and somewhat comical) revolt in the POW camp Kretschmer was in.
Robertson wrote two biographies of Kretschmer and I don't know which one was the one I read (I read it in German). I believe that "The Golden Horse Shoe" is the English name of the book to look for.

I will not comment on this futher than yes it is obvious that Russia (Putin) has and is in love with its intelligence organization(s)

No disagreement from me there.

I don't know where I will be in a few months from now.

Good luck with that. Moving is tough, I have done it many many times. More than I care to remember.

Thanks! I have moved too many times as well. I really want to settle down and have an actual home. My favorite part of the US is Texas and I dream of having a house somewhere near Dallas some day, but I am currently stuck in Michigan for work. Michigan really is the most depressing part of the US. It makes my wife want to move back to Austria (remember, she is American), even though I make good money here. That's how bad it is

A new cold war would be absolute bliss for the arms manufacturers and dealers of course.

This is my point. The system has evolved to support a steady state long term aquisitions construct. That is where the real margins are. Ten years of war has been really bad for this. We are in so deep with O, we have cut our throats on M and also procurement. Not to mention the procurement system is broken anyway.

We are still spending too much on military and weapons though. Just look at the huge cost of the F35 and the littoral combat ships. Both are IMHO underperforming and a total waste of money. This money could have been a tax relief for the population of this country. Or it could have been used to take better care of the vets, who are IMHO still being treated shamefully, especially considering what they have given for this country.

there is a lot of false flag crap going on there

Maybe not as much as you think, and probably not as distributed as you think. I would wager significantly it is Putin centric

Well, I guess we will have to disagree there. I do agree that Putin is on top of this, but some of it may have been a reaction to previous actions and so on. See my earlier post about escalation.
Someone leaves a fart. That fart stinks and before you know it there is poison gas everywhere

There have been no WMD attacks. We don't even know for sure that they have any working WMDs.

I will comment no further on this outside of asking you to take note of LFC's and his father's own pronouncements.
And, if you are limiting your perspective to nuclear WMD, then you need to think more openly and widely.

No, I am including all. They may have chemical weapons, but they have not used them against the south. Either way, you could argue that it would be better to do a preemptive strike against the north. But that is again the "escalation" thing. Right now the west has the moral upper hand and China's support for NK wanes and gets less, every time the fat kid does something naught. If China cuts them off, the fat kid is fair game for everyone. In fact, he will probably killed off by his own people then. I think that patience and good intelligence work (in case they do get crazy) is a better tactic there.

I don't get it, Germany would have been just as good

I know you don't. Germany would not have been just as good. As I noted before, think about detection envelopes, ballistic arcs (both incoming and outgoing), and declared threat axis.
Germany is right next to Poland and Poland is not exactly a big country. So I am not convinced. I do see the point regarding trajectories. In fact further east than Poland might have been better, if you really think of Iran as the threat. I wonder though whether Turkey or the eastern most part of Norway would not have been better suited than Poland. Not sure whether that would have pissed off the Russians too though. They are extremely touchy feely lately but so seems everyone, including the US. IMHO the whole world went a bit crazy since 9/11 with civil liberties cut left and right and a "security insanity" that is unprecedented. This also is an example of escalation.

Looks like plenty from OPEC and the gulf

OPEC does not mean the Gulf. You need to click the little boxes on the list for "All", "Persian Gulf", "OPEC", and "Non-OPEC". Then click the grpah button.
You will see the US is not beholden to Middle East Oil. The US divorced itself from Middle East oil decades ago, on purpose.

Last year the US got about 15% of its oil from Saudi Arabia alone and around 20% from the Persian gulf. Not that small a percentage. IMHO every single petro dollar that we send to those people is a dollar too much. But I guess, we just have to agree to disagree on this issue.

[Diogenes]

It is might constitutional right to do so. It is also my constitutional right to express those thoughts and act on them within the bounds of our law (which granted is becoming more and more difficult as the law is pushed further into grey and unclear bounds courtesy of leftist lawyers and politicians).

Keep going. You'll get there.

[Diogenes]

Last year the US got about 15% of its oil from Saudi Arabia alone and around 20% from the Persian gulf. Not that small a percentage. IMHO every single petro dollar that we send to those people is a dollar too much. But I guess, we just have to agree to disagree on this issue.

Support CNG. Buy one. Drive it.

[ladajo]

Last year the US got about 15% of its oil from Saudi Arabia alone and around 20% from the Persian gulf.

Skippy your math and your cherry pick are significantly beneath you.

On average, over the last 30 years, the US got about 10% of its oil from Saudi. And, we don't need it.
On average, over the last 30 years, the US got about 15% of its oil from the Gulf States. And, we don't need it.
Last year the percentage from Saudi climbed only as a relation to the last several years of significant declines in US oil imports as US production and independance has climbed.
From a peak of 456 Million barrels of oil in August of 2006, the US import volume has dropped to 256.2 Million barrels for the month of February, 2014, which is below the low point of the last ten years from February, 2013.
So we are almost to half of our peak imports, and trending to get there and beyond by within a year or two. Saudi/Persian gulf imports have remained fairly steady at about 30 Million/ 50 Million barrels/month respectively over the last 5 years.
I anticipate that those mid-east numbers will drop again in the near term.
The US made a strategic decision in the 70s to get off dependency of Middle Eastern oil given the volatile nature of the region. You apparently missed the memo.

[paperburn1]

True but Saudi dollar are trying to change that,

[ladajo]

?