A little news from Alan Boyle

[rj40]

Alan is keeping up with this. Very nice.

http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/ ... 72183.aspx

[Jeff Peachman]

ahhh you beat me to it =(

strange that we've been waiting for news for months, and as soon as news comes it reads: "no new news"

[KitemanSA]

Being in a holding pattern is the worst possible situation for the country right now. And there is one simple answer that could break the hold.

Dr Nebel, in your OPINION, what is the likelyhood that the review panel will say that Dr Bussard's and your work was trash and that there is no way that a Polywell will work?

If high, then we can go about our other business. If low, then at least we can begin planning for additional work, with or without additional Navy funds.

Please Dr. Nebel, what is that likelyhood?

[Betruger]

Trash is probably a bit rude to say, and Dr Nebel just can't answer that sort of question. Legaly and responsibly. He's already thrown us a bone with a few comments here and there.

[MSimon]

Kiteman,

I remember the dark days of Nov. 2006 when there was no hope and no prospect of hope. Tom Ligon and a few others (Dr. Bussard's Google Talk being the most important) got the word out and it had a material impact on progress.

Patience grasshopper.

If good news is not forthcoming in the next few months we can start another publicity campaign and put some pressure on. And we start today with a much larger base than we had in Nov '06. We have contacts with the legislative branch on the left and right. We can now do in weeks what originally took months.

There is no rush.

If we don't see action By Feb. or so of '09 I'd say it was time to mobilize.

Simon

[rj40]

1968 was a very bad year. After Apollo 8 circled the moon, one of the messages the astronauts received read: “You saved 1968.”

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/moon/peopl ... _1968.html

There probably isn’t anything that’s going t happen in the next few months that would rival that (full blown peace in the middle east, for example) – but I think a positive review of Nebel and teams work, as well as a GO from the Navy, might lift some spirits around here.

[TallDave]

"Maybe later" still beats "No."

We'll just have to be patient. There is some VC interest if government funding isn't forthcoming.

[KitemanSA]

Betruger,
I am pretty sure the review board wouldn't actually call the work trash, but they may convey the same message about the process.

That message, and its converse, that the process is so wonderful that big-moneyed individuals will be sure to grab it and run, are the two things that would prevent folks like me from financially supporting the research end of this topic.

MSimon,
I disagree that there is no rush. The economy is in turmoil right now and may yet crash. If this thing works, the prospects may prevent truly stupid decisions by the folks in power. As to when that news is released, the sooner, the better. Months may be critical.

TallDave,
"Tomorrow" is the enemy of "today". And "maybe later" is WORSE than "no" if those in the know anticipate "no". "Maybe later" would be a huge waste of time and passion.

===
I read somewhere that someone infered that Dr. Nebel has implied we should go ahead with the WB100M. The only thing I have found by DrN is that he thinks we should go to the 'next of the series', which to me was WB8, the dodecahedron. Which is it?

As I've asked in the past, what is the plan of action?

[MSimon]

I disagree that there is no rush. The economy is in turmoil right now and may yet crash. If this thing works, the prospects may prevent truly stupid decisions by the folks in power. As to when that news is released, the sooner, the better. Months may be critical.

If we could start today with a relatively unlimited budget it would still take 3 to 5 years to finish the research. A few months one way or the other is no biggie. We will already be well into the next economic cycle by the time we have a go/no go for building power stations. And we are clueless about pBj. We have quite a ways to go yet. Patience.

==

There is nothing that will prevent truly stupid decisions by the folks in power. The best we can hope for is that the feedback is swift.

[bcokeley]

Regardless of who is elected President next month, major planning on energy policy that shapes the next four years (or eight) will be conducted over the next two or three months.

While patience is a virtue, timing is everything.

[Aero]

...major planning on energy policy that shapes the next four years (or eight) will be conducted over the next two or three months.

While patience is a virtue, timing is everything.

You got that right! Help me out here with some cliches
Strike while the iron is hot.
Get while the getin's good.

[dnavas]

You got that right! Help me out here with some cliches
Strike while the iron is hot.
Get while the getin's good.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch?

Random interesting (nearly on-topic) News: http://www.superconductors.org/200K.htm

-Dave

[icarus]

A few months one way or the other is no biggie. We will already be well into the next economic cycle by the time we have a go/no go for building power stations.

MSimon: you are assuming there will be another economic cycle.

Read Joseph Tainter's "The Collapse of Complex Societies" on why fusion technology could easily be the difference between a historical societal collapse and more of the same.

"We often assume that the collapse of the Roman Empire was a catastrophe for everyone involved. Tainter points out that it can be seen as a very rational preference of individuals at the time, many of whom were actually better off (all but the elite, presumably). Archeological evidence from human bones indicates that average nutrition actually improved after the collapse in many parts of the former Roman Empire. Average individuals may have benefited because they no longer had to invest in the burdensome complexity of empire.

In Tainter's view, while invasions, crop failures, disease or environmental degradation may be the apparent causes of societal collapse, the ultimate cause is diminishing returns on investments in social complexity. Finally, Tainter musters modern statistics to show that marginal returns on investments in energy, education and technological innovation are diminishing today. The globalised modern world is subject to many of the same stresses that brought older societies to ruin.

However, Tainter is not entirely apocalyptic: "When some new input to an economic system is brought on line, whether a technical innovation or an energy subsidy, it will often have the potential at least temporarily to raise marginal productivity" (p. 124). Thus, barring continual conquest of your neighbors (which is always subject to diminishing returns), innovation that increases productivity is -- in the long run -- the only way out of the dismal science dilemma of declining marginal returns on added investments in complexity."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Tainter

[Jboily]

A few months one way or the other is no biggie. We will already be well into the next economic cycle by the time we have a go/no go for building power stations.

MSimon: you are assuming there will be another economic cycle.

Read Joseph Tainter's "The Collapse of Complex Societies" on why fusion technology could easily be the difference between a historical societal collapse and more of the same.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Tainter

Icarus, thank you for this good link.

One think that may help for an other economic cycle is that the size and education of the population allow faster problem solving. In previous society collapses, the population did not had time to research the solution to the problems because their human resources where to limited.

To illustrated this point, over the humanity history, there was only a few inventions that caused a paradigm shifts, namely fire and tools, farming, education of the masses, penicillin and the computer revolution. Each paradigm shift was accompanied with a population increase of an order of more in magnitude.

There are arguably a few more, but the main point is that these events are getting more frequent. I was born during the baby boom that the invention of penicillin caused along with glottalization of heath care causing the global population to grow from 1 to 6 billion. Then came the computer revolution and the Internet, bringing education and information to the 4 corners of the world. We now are looking at the possibility of a third paradigm shift in my life time, with the nanotechnology, bioengineering and artificial intelligence getting at the commercialization level.

Tainter's argue that the capitalism is an unstable system. I believe he is right, specially in view of the recent events. I have however confidence that our society can solve this problem in time. We certainly have enough brain power on it.

[TDPerk]

Tainter's argue that the capitalism is an unstable system. I believe he is right, specially in view of the recent events.

Certainly there are more predictable ways to organize a society other than private property, and the concomitant freedoms of expression and association, but I would not trade those away in return for the at best more stable but overall lower increase in wealth such a society might generate.

In short, Tainter may well have made a fairly pointless observation, and one long known. Smith wrote quite some time ago, and so did Bastiat, and Hayek, von Mises, and Friedman are also long known if ill-heeded.

Just thought had on reading the thread.

Yours, TDP