The Plane is in Pakistan?

[DeltaV]

There was a South African Airways A340 flight (SA280) from Johannesburg to Perth that landed approx. 3 hrs after the last Inmarsat ping (red arc above), if I have the time zones right.

h*t*t*p://info.flightmapper.net/flight/ ... e=2014-3-8

Maybe the A340 was close-trailed for a while, prior to the 777 dropping below/between coastal radars and heading for a dry lake.

Weather over land was mostly clear.

[Edited to disable link due to new malware alerts]

[ladajo]

Looks like it is pushing the fuel limit to pull that off. Flying low eats gas big time.

[DeltaV]

With the normal fuel load for KUL to PEK, yes, it would have been close, even for a 777-200ER (Extended Range). Remember, however, the tailwind on the hypothetical eastward leg, and if they were trailing the A340 they would also be near optimum fuel burn, prior to avoiding Perth's terminal radar. The low altitude portion would be mostly over the outback. Alternatively, they might have maintained altitude a little longer and trailed a third flight over Australia, dropping down just prior to landing on the targeted dry lake. When the weather is good, commercial route schedules are pretty reliable. No problem for an experienced pilot to pick flights to trail in such a way that he minimizes his radar exposure during the transitions. ATC might dismiss the transition as a brief radar hiccup.

It is also possible that they were given a full fuel load, however, if KUL ground crew accomplices were employed, or if they made an intermediate landing somewhere remote to refuel and remove passengers (hopefully still alive) and cargo pallets, before proceeding with an Indian Ocean splash deception.

Many possibilities. The whole thing feels well-planned.

[DeltaV]

On a side note, the link I posted yesterday to the South African Airways flight SA280 is now triggering malware alerts on my machine, which it did not do yesterday. Will edit to disable the link.

[paperburn1]

Still, I believe the new radar system would have the range necessary to cover that area. If they were looking in the first place. I do not think they would withhold position data if they knew and just not disclose how they knew. The problem is no one theory fits all the known data.

[paperburn1]

could this have been a high value target rendition??

[Betruger]

With this much publicity?

[ladajo]

The North Koreans were after Dennis Rodman.
They got the wrong plane.

On a serious note, I saw a news line this morning saying that a Chinese ship may have picked up a pinger.

[DeltaV]

Still, I believe the new radar system would have the range necessary to cover that area.

The purple track I drew would be outside the over-the-horizon radar's sensitive zone, if you can believe Wikipedia (not always, but sometimes). I doubt the actual scan zone outline would be unclassified, so a hypothetical terrorist would probably add a buffer zone. Remember that OTH radar works differently from conventional line-of-sight radar. Close-in zones are excluded, but the useful area is much larger.

The empirical, and alleged empirical, data is all over the map, literally.



Following my conjecture, one could imagine the bad guys throwing a fake pinger into the ocean and letting it drift, with buoyancy engineered to hold it at some submerged depth to provide a moving, yet invisible, target.

[paperburn1]

Without stating any ranges and with the number you have shown on you graphic the Australians have the range +
But this assumes they were actively looking for the plane.
google "Jindalee Operational Radar Network" JORN
This is their official press release
https://www.airforce.gov.au/docs/JORN_FAQS.pdf

[paperburn1]

Here is a nugget on the plane , the Malaysian government will not release the cargo manifest to some investigators.
What if the airplane had a high value cargo and this was a robbery gone bad. That would almost fit all the facts.

[hanelyp]

Following my conjecture, one could imagine the bad guys throwing a fake pinger into the ocean and letting it drift, with buoyancy engineered to hold it at some submerged depth to provide a moving, yet invisible, target.

That would take more creativity than I usually attribute to terrorists.

As far as finding a possibly submerged "black box", seems to me that any modern nuclear sub in the area would have as good a chance as any other craft brought in. Those boats run very quiet and have very big ears.

[Skipjack]

The point of terrorism is usually to make a point, you know. Because of that usually a terrorist organization is taking responsibility for a terrorist act. The fact that no one took responsibility makes a terrorist motive unlikely. There could still be a criminal or some suicide motive, but if there is, it is not obvious.

[DeltaV]

The point you are missing is that if the the plane was stolen for use in a later terrorist act, then they would want everyone to think that it went down in the remote ocean. The gloating would be delayed until after a successful Phase 2.

[Skipjack]

The point you are missing is that if the the plane was stolen for use in a later terrorist act, then they would want everyone to think that it went down in the remote ocean. The gloating would be delayed until after a successful Phase 2.

That makes even less sense.