Erdogan is going to get us all killed!

[Skipjack]

Turkey just shot down a Russian plane over Syria. Of course Turkey does not want the Russians there, because they are fighting ISIS and of course the islamofascist madman Erdogan loves ISIS because it helps him get rid of the Kurds.
Now they shot down a Russian plane and if Russia retaliates, NATO gets dragged into a war and bang! We have WW3!
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34913173

[ladajo]

While I am no fan of Erdogan, this is a little extreme and not accurate.

Erdogan loves ISIS

Erdogan has no love for ISIS, but does seem them at times as a useful foil to advance his own agenda. That is a far cry from what you state from your alarmist irrational position.

The Russian's will do little to nothing about the shoot-down. They have been asking for it, and they got it, they also know this.
If they don't (which is also a possibility), then they deserve the bitch slap even more.

Erdogan is also seemingly becoming more nuanced post election in his management of the Kurds.

Russian will do nothing but cry and whine, and fight the information fight on this. They will not attack Turkey. No real balls, and no real capability to pursue that fight. Turkey if attacked could end the viable large Russian presence in Syria in days. They would not need much, if any, help to do so.
The Russian forces in Syria are on a thin thread of support that is just too easy to snip.

[paperburn1]

So who is buying all that IS oil?

[Skipjack]

As usual ladajo and I disagree...

[Diogenes]

Turkey just shot down a Russian plane over Syria. Of course Turkey does not want the Russians there, because they are fighting ISIS and of course the islamofascist madman Erdogan loves ISIS because it helps him get rid of the Kurds.
Now they shot down a Russian plane and if Russia retaliates, NATO gets dragged into a war and bang! We have WW3!
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34913173

They shot down a Russian Jet which crashed in Syrian Airspace. The Russians say their radar tracks indicate that Turkish aircraft violated Syrian airspace in order to shoot down their aircraft. Turkish Rebels affiliated with al nursa shot the pilots as they were descending by Parachutes. These same Turkish Rebels used an American made TOW missile to shoot down a Russian rescue helicopter sent to retrieve the pilots, and apparently the Helicopter crew did not survive.


Yeah Islamist nut-case Erdogan is trying to start World War III.

[Diogenes]

So who is buying all that IS oil?

It is my understanding that Turkey has been buying that ISIS oil.

[Diogenes]

Russian will do nothing but cry and whine, and fight the information fight on this. They will not attack Turkey. No real balls, and no real capability to pursue that fight. Turkey if attacked could end the viable large Russian presence in Syria in days. They would not need much, if any, help to do so.
The Russian forces in Syria are on a thin thread of support that is just too easy to snip.

I think they will declare open season on any Turkish in Syria. I think they will attempt to get some violence through proxies across the border into that Turkish town near the shoot down. I think they are going to arm the Kurds, and I think they are going to continue killing ISIS.



I think they are going to note what the Turks have done, and try to give them payback at some future date, and in some manner so as to not to provoke Nato into responding.


They have already moved a missile cruiser nearer to the coast, and the implication is that they will shoot down Turkish aircraft if they catch them over Syrian Airspace.

[ladajo]

I think y'all are going to be somewhat disappointed in what Russia does about this.

[Skipjack]

Seems like this is one of those occasions when Diogenes and I agree
We seriously need a beer smiley

[Skipjack]

Here is a little more fact checking. I checked the spot that the SU24 allegedly overflew in Google maps. According to this, the SU was (even if we believe what the Turks say) less than 2 miles in Turkish airspace and the little piece of Turkey that it crossed was less than 2 miles wide at the spot ( I was being very generous and actually placed the line a little further in).
Assuming that the SU24 was flying 500 mph at the time, it would have overflown the little piece of Turkey in less than 14 seconds. I want to see how they can put 10 warning into 14 seconds. I think the Turks are lying about the warnings and probably about the overflight as well.

SyriaMap002.jpg (96.9 KiB) Viewed 13731 times

[Skipjack]

Also want to add this regarding the actions of the "Turkmen" that shot at the descending Russian pilots hanging defenselessly from their parachutes:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attacks_on_parachutists

[Diogenes]

Here is a little more fact checking. I checked the spot that the SU24 allegedly overflew in Google maps. According to this, the SU was (even if we believe what the Turks say) less than 2 miles in Turkish airspace and the little piece of Turkey that it crossed was less than 2 miles wide at the spot ( I was being very generous and actually placed the line a little further in).
Assuming that the SU24 was flying 500 mph at the time, it would have overflown the little piece of Turkey in less than 14 seconds. I want to see how they can put 10 warning into 14 seconds. I think the Turks are lying about the warnings and probably about the overflight as well.

It's worse than that according to another poster on another website.

It actually depends on who you ask. The map in post #2 (thanks, McGruff) shows that the incident happened over Turkey's Hatay Province. Hatay Province was annexed by Turkey in 1939. Before that the province was aligned with Syria.

The Syrians have never recognized the Turkish annexation of the region. Below is taken from the Wikipedia article on the province:

Syrians hold the view that this land was illegally ceded to Turkey by France, the mandatory occupying power of Syria in the late 1930s. Syria still considers it an integral part of its own territory...Official Syrian maps still show Hatay as part of Syria.

The Syrians may well regard that area as their airspace and perhaps they so informed the Russians.

[Diogenes]

I think y'all are going to be somewhat disappointed in what Russia does about this.

I think you are more so in a position to know whereof you speak than are we. I won't be surprised if you turn out to be correct, though it does not square with my impression of Putin.

[djolds1]

While I am no fan of Erdogan, this is a little extreme and not accurate.

Erdogan loves ISIS

Agreed. Erdogan is Ikhwan, not Wahhabi. They're fighting for same niche in Sunni Islam, but are not the same.

And Putin is in Syria to support Assad, not necessarily suppress ISIS. The two are not identical, tho there may be periodic overlap.

It is my understanding that Turkey has been buying that ISIS oil.

Everyone deals with everyone in the ME. They just don't necessarily admit it.

Here is a little more fact checking. I checked the spot that the SU24 allegedly overflew in Google maps. According to this, the SU was (even if we believe what the Turks say) less than 2 miles in Turkish airspace and the little piece of Turkey that it crossed was less than 2 miles wide at the spot ( I was being very generous and actually placed the line a little further in).
Assuming that the SU24 was flying 500 mph at the time, it would have overflown the little piece of Turkey in less than 14 seconds. I want to see how they can put 10 warning into 14 seconds. I think the Turks are lying about the warnings and probably about the overflight as well.

The Russians were attacking Turkish ethnics in Syria. Lines on maps are very notional things in concrete reality.

Also want to add this regarding the actions of the "Turkmen" that shot at the descending Russian pilots hanging defenselessly from their parachutes:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attacks_on_parachutists

(Shrug)

Pay your money, take your chances. If you're going to try to kill people, don't complain about it when they kill you back.

War is not fought by Marquis of Queensberry Rules, and the fiction it ever was is rapidly dying.

It's worse than that according to another poster on another website.

It actually depends on who you ask. The map in post #2 (thanks, McGruff) shows that the incident happened over Turkey's Hatay Province. Hatay Province was annexed by Turkey in 1939. Before that the province was aligned with Syria.

The Syrians have never recognized the Turkish annexation of the region. Below is taken from the Wikipedia article on the province:

Syrians hold the view that this land was illegally ceded to Turkey by France, the mandatory occupying power of Syria in the late 1930s. Syria still considers it an integral part of its own territory...Official Syrian maps still show Hatay as part of Syria.

The Syrians may well regard that area as their airspace and perhaps they so informed the Russians.

There is no Syria. There is a shattered, balkanized territory of mutually homicidal factions. The fact that you think that there is a Syria, and that lines on a map still matter, is... touching.

[choff]

Even assuming the Russians overflew Turkish airspace, their actions can in no way have been construed as threatening Turkey, unless the Turks think attacking ISIS terrorists is a threat to their sovereignty. I watched a video the other day of soccer games having a minutes silence for victims of the Paris attack. All the European stadiums were completely silent, in the Turkish stadiums there was instead loud jeering and chants of Allah Akbar, they should be kicked out of NATO, clearly they don't belong.