kcdodd wrote:Diogenes wrote:kcdodd wrote:Well, it seems another interpretation that is just as accurate is that child molesters are about 10x more likely to be "heterosexual" than "homosexual". Don't you agree with that?
Absolutely. In fact, if the numbers are proportional, they should be 49 times more likely to be child molesters. 49 x 2% =98% with the remaining 2% being the homosexual molesters.
Homosexuals are overrepresented amongst child molesters, and that is not even counting the effect of boys being less willing to report molestation than are girls.
I was using "heterosexual" and "homosexual" in quotes to classify the molestation itself based on the sex of the offender and victim. I'm not sure what you have done with your numbers, you'd have to explain.
Same as you. The presumption is that homosexual child molesters will prefer boys, and heterosexual child molesters will prefer girls. The sex of the victim presumes the orientation of the attacker.
kcdodd wrote:
However, if we are going to get into statistics, then there are a few interrelated problems. You're assumption is that those men who molest girls are randomly selected from the straight population defined to get the 98% statistic, and those who molest boys are randomly selected from the gay population defined to get the 2% population. However, you actually have to justify that assumption.
How is that assumption not justified based on the sex of the victim? Do you have a plausible alternative suggestion?
kcdodd wrote:
Although the majority of clergy abuse victims are males, homosexuality cannot be blamed. First, many of the pedophile priests report that they are not homosexual. This is also true of many non-clergy sex offenders who victimize boys. Many report that they target boys for a variety of reasons... that include easier access to boys ... pregnancy fears with female victims ... homosexuals in general have not been found to be more likely to commit sexual crimes against minors compared to heterosexuals. Sexual orientation is not predictive of sex crimes
Thomas Plante,
Mental Disorders of the New Millennium (2006)
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/09/1 ... -the-proof
You are defining "not homosexual" pretty loosely. I would make the obvious argument that if you are having sex with the same gender, you are by definition Homo-Sexual. I believe I understand your point though. You are suggesting that they are in a group (such as prison inmates) that do not prefer same sex, but will utilize whatever happens to be available. And how can this be determined to be true?
Though I am not going to look at any links to DailyKos, I have found this study in which Thomas Plante was a consultant.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/55745387/Caus ... -201051211
I'll have to take a look at it before I can comment intelligently regarding it.
kcdodd wrote:
So, at the very least, one can not assume that the 2% statistic is of any use what-so-ever in determining a population from which child molesters come from, because it was defined using another metric altogether. At its heart, you are committing the error of equivocation, defining gay in one sense and then using it in another sense altogether.
I think that is a non sequitur. First, you are presuming an intent (to use different definitions in different contexts) which does not exist, and it remains to be seen if the definitions are in fact different.
kcdodd wrote:
If you want to show that homosexuals are over-represented among pedophiles, then you have to instead look at any correlation between the gay population as defined to get the 2% statistic and the pedophile population. In other words, you need to count to two now.
Defined by whom? With enough tailoring, you can slice the definition it into as small of a sliver as you wish. Homosexuality is itself just a subsection of a larger group of deviant sexual behavior, and there are many sub categories of homosexuality as well. (of which "Butch" and Femme" are merely two examples.)
I personally think much of human sexuality in general is tied strongly to a "taboo" section of the brain. It is no coincidence that so many people are aroused by "taboo" acts or thoughts, and I suspect this might be an evolutionary left-over from the time when Alpha males dominated the harem of females, and any non-alpha male sex had to be furtive and operating under great anxiety.
I think this particular piece of human brain firm-ware sometimes gets corrupted and produces various deviances. Some of them are relatively harmless (foot fetish?) but some of them are distinctly unhealthy.
‘What all the wise men promised has not happened, and what all the damned fools said would happen has come to pass.’
— Lord Melbourne —