Adam Smith and the Invisible hand.

[Diogenes]

D,

If you can mix well reason and emotion you will be a world beater.

Giving up on reason severely weakens your hand.

Some people are reasonable on some subjects and unreasonable on others. They will not see when the Emperor has no clothes no matter how much you direct their attention to it.

[Diogenes]

By the way, how is your technical solution to a social problem coming along? Based on what you've said, I have a few vague ideas on what you might be trying to do, but they are only speculation.

I too have just realized a possible technical solution to a social problem and I have started working on it.

I hope you aren't working on the same idea.

[MSimon]

D,

If you can mix well reason and emotion you will be a world beater.

Giving up on reason severely weakens your hand.

Some people are reasonable on some subjects and unreasonable on others. They will not see when the Emperor has no clothes no matter how much you direct their attention to it.

I have that problem all the time. I show people (medical and other) evidence that for the most part our Drug War is a War on people in pain. And a lot of the responses I get are of the order:

"The punishments are insufficiently harsh."

Usually from the most devout Christians. Who claim to represent a God of Love and Redemption. One can only laugh. But then I remember that a fair number of Churches in America supported slavery. Which is to say: to expect morality from the religious is an opium pipe dream.

Some have it some don't. Gott mit uns. Indeed. In fact they all say it. When they are contradicting each other God is not with one of them. Possibly both.

The religious are just as fallible as anyone else. Unfortunately they are in a position to organize failure.

Of all tyrannies a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber barons cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience. Clive Staples "CS" Lewis

[MSimon]

By the way, how is your technical solution to a social problem coming along? Based on what you've said, I have a few vague ideas on what you might be trying to do, but they are only speculation.

I too have just realized a possible technical solution to a social problem and I have started working on it.

I hope you aren't working on the same idea. :)

I'm clearing the decks at home. Once they are cleared (a couple of weeks I hope) I will publish.

If we have the same idea I propose we join forces. Assuming we can come to terms. Otherwise I'm available for consulting.

[ScottL]

I don't suppose anyone noticed that that graph is in one-month-long line segments? There's no "plateau" starting before the tax hike; it's just that December and January's numbers were similar. No data available in between.

The tax went into effect Jan 1st. There was little to no effect from Dec. 1st to Feb 1st. The actual down turn was in Feb. The tax is one component of the decline, but not the direct or only reason in all likelihood. If it is true that lowered taxes = business boom, then how come businesses didn't boom in the 80's, early 90's, 2000-2004* or 2004-2008?

2000-2004: There was no excuse, conservatives had complete control.

[93143]

First, how is the total elimination of an upward trend "no effect"?

Second, you're still treating the data as if it's finer than one point per month. You have no idea what the trendline looks like between points. (The graph itself doesn't even specify what time of the month the data is for, or if it's an average, or what...)

Unless you've actually looked at the underlying data set, I'd call this a graph reading fail.

I refuse to comment on the politics. That's not what I'm here for.

[ScottL]

First, how is the total elimination of an upward trend "no effect"?

Second, you're still treating the data as if it's finer than one point per month. You have no idea what the trendline looks like between points. (The graph itself doesn't even specify what time of the month the data is for, or if it's an average, or what...)

Unless you've actually looked at the underlying data set, I'd call this a graph reading fail.

I refuse to comment on the politics. That's not what I'm here for.

Numbers, please read through my posts. I've seen the actual data graph and is the reason why I requested that if Diogenes is going to post it, at least post the entire thing.

[93143]

If you have the data, post it. Don't just make unsupported statements that contradict what data has been shown.

[ScottL]

If you have the data, post it. Don't just make unsupported statements that contradict what data has been shown.

Ok, sure, here's the link to the table:

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LASST17000003

Summarize:

Unemployment rate:

Nov 10: 9.4%
Dec 10: 9.2%
Jan 11: 9.0%
Feb 11: 8.9%
Mar 11: 8.8%
Apr 11: 8.7%
May 11: 8.9%
Jun 11: 9.1%

So the dip in employed persons would've been between April and May, not Dec 10 to Jan 11. This is nearly 4 months after said hike. Mind you some of these numbers are being revised and there was a decrease of ~70,000 people in the available work force. This could be from moving to other states or seasonal workers.

[93143]

there was a decrease of ~70,000 people in the available work force.

Bingo. This is probably what caused the employment data to drop. There seems to have been a small but fast exodus around the turn of the year... thus the unemployment percentage cannot be used as a "summary"; it's more complicated than that.

[ScottL]

there was a decrease of ~70,000 people in the available work force.

Bingo. This is probably what caused the employment data to drop. There seems to have been a small but fast exodus around the turn of the year... thus the unemployment percentage cannot be used as a "summary"; it's more complicated than that.

My point from the beginning. It's more complicated than what has been stated.

[Diogenes]

D,

If you can mix well reason and emotion you will be a world beater.

Giving up on reason severely weakens your hand.

Some people are reasonable on some subjects and unreasonable on others. They will not see when the Emperor has no clothes no matter how much you direct their attention to it.

I have that problem all the time. I show people (medical and other) evidence that for the most part our Drug War is a War on people in pain. And a lot of the responses I get are of the order:

"The punishments are insufficiently harsh."

That is of course your interpretation. I see the drug issue in myriads of ways, including as you portray it a "war on people in pain" but not just that.

Much of the pain (I assume you mean emotional pain mostly) is the result of people's previous poor decisions. I've known lots of people who take drugs because their life sucked, but most of the reason why it sucked is because they had unreasonable expectations of life (that stuff would just get handed to them) and because they stayed high as opposed to work hard to get out of their miserable life.

Pain medication in some cases becomes an obstacle to healing.

Usually from the most devout Christians. Who claim to represent a God of Love and Redemption. One can only laugh. But then I remember that a fair number of Churches in America supported slavery. Which is to say: to expect morality from the religious is an opium pipe dream.

What came before the Churches was even worse, if you can believe it.

Some have it some don't. Gott mit uns. Indeed. In fact they all say it. When they are contradicting each other God is not with one of them. Possibly both.

The religious are just as fallible as anyone else. Unfortunately they are in a position to organize failure.

Of all tyrannies a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber barons cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience. Clive Staples "CS" Lewis

Yeah, I like that quote as well. You overlook the secular aspect of the Argument. I believe some narcotics are like fire. You let it spread wide enough, and it will engulf everything. I keep coming back to the example of China for a reason. I regard it as a real world experiment on what is likely to happen if narcotic drugs are legal and available.

I don't think you have ever heard me make a religious argument (other than that Religion is the glue holding our civilization together) and the China argument has nothing to do with religion, but with the very practical and down to earth issue of what happens to a group of humans who are able to use hard drugs.

It wasn't pretty, and it did result in a dictatorship, which according to my theory is inevitable when the social framework of a society collapses.

[Diogenes]

By the way, how is your technical solution to a social problem coming along? Based on what you've said, I have a few vague ideas on what you might be trying to do, but they are only speculation.

I too have just realized a possible technical solution to a social problem and I have started working on it.

I hope you aren't working on the same idea.

I'm clearing the decks at home. Once they are cleared (a couple of weeks I hope) I will publish.

If we have the same idea I propose we join forces. Assuming we can come to terms. Otherwise I'm available for consulting.

Your idea sounds more interesting than mine. Mine is pretty simple. At this point I just have to write some code. I think my idea will alleviate a very ubiquitous and serious social problem. I only thought of it because the social problem (which heretofore I had paid no attention) was brought to my attention. As soon as I pondered it for a moment I said "I know how to solve that problem! " I'm contacting an attorney to do a patent search. If the idea hasn't been done before, I think it will be well worth doing. I mentioned it to one guy and he immediately started pushing money at me.


Regarding your project, If it makes the world a better place and I can be of any assistance, I would love to participate.

[choff]

Regarding the use of illicit drugs as relief from pain, I would be curious to what extent Americans used illicit drugs because it was more affordable than health insurance/conventional medicine.

[brian]

http://minx.cc/?post=320508

And you probably don't even understand what is the Post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy.