10KW LENR demonstrator (new thread)

[seedload]

I suppose that for some, ignorance equals improbable but for me, ignorance is just that not knowing; and I don't know.

In other words, Ignorance is bliss.

Anyway, since this is a new thread, I will recap my position.

* LENR is improbable.
* If LENR processes are real, the claimed orders of magnitude improvement in LENR by Rossi is improbable.
* The claimed cheap isotopic separation process of Rossi is improbable.
* The claim that apparently impotent Leonardo Corporation is capable of ECAT production is improbable.
* The forgotten claim that shipping was held up because of a container is improbable.
* The coincidental natural isotopic ratios of copper produced is improbable.
* If a real process, the highly defensive and angry replies to any serious questions is improbable.
* If a real discovery, the lack of scientific rigor in successive demonstrations is improbable.
* If a real discovery, the extended time of the UOB research project is improbable.
* The idea that only specific isotopes of Nickel would 'react' is improbable.
* The name "Rossi Tires" on the door is improbable.
* The naked lab is improbable.
* The coffee machine is improbable.
* Given Rossi's insistence that the 1MW plant will be proof, the fact that the 'customer' for the plant is the producer of ECATs makes this claim of proof an improbable position.
* If real, Rossi and Focardi disagreeing on the basic reaction at this late date is improbable.
* Claims of spies etc. are improbable.
* Claims of designing a self destruct mechanism for home models are improbable.
* The inconsistent claims of filed patents vs. company secret on the secret sauce are improbable.
* Given the history of Rossi, the idea that he has not gone straight is improbable.

No, I don't think we are ignorant at all. We have a basis to draw conclusions that various aspects of this whole business are improbable.

Previously, my arguments were individually opposed based on the fact that each of the above is possible. For example, it is indeed possible that they are building ECATS in an apartment in Miami just like Apple did in the garage. Yes, it is possible that Rossi has found a cheap method of isotopic enrichment. Yes, it is possible, that Rossi is really being pursued by spies, is really building a self destruct mechanism to stick in peoples homes, is really held up by a shipping container, etc.

Yes, individually, all of the above is possible.

But, we are also not ignorant to the math of probability. Individually improbable things, while possible, quickly approach impossible when considered together.

[rcain]

Let me put it like this:

From what has gone on before, I will probably not believe Rossi, whatever he says.

Whether or not there is any truth in the whole LENR 'phenomenon'/debate - I await some solid replicable evidence from other 'reputable' labs.

Trouble is, any other 'reputable' lab considering such work, will also be waiting to see if this whole commercialisation fiasco blows up in their face first. If they have any sense.

[Giorgio]

I think you guys covered any possible aspect of Rossi and the word "improbable"

[sparkyy0007]

Your example about discovery of the laser is fine but can hardly find application here.
We know that Rossi is supplying heat (i.e. random motion) and to think that random motion can actually get in a coherent state simply due to the presence of a "catalyst" is hard to believe, especially if you consider that around the world there are thousands of scientists that play with heath and cold every day looking for stuff like that.
This is why I stated that while it is possible I think that is not probable that such a phenomena went unnoticed till now.

Of course a real experiment could clear these issues, but this is something we already discussed ad nauseam.

Would you take 10 or 20mw excess heat in an experiment seriously?

Yes, provided that the input power was 1mw

If you had an experiment producing 10mw from a 1mw input that would be something and likely noticed, but from the papers I have read no one (except Rossi) is claiming that.
Besides, every one knows not to expect this so why would they recognize it in an unrelated experiment, or attribute it to anything other than experimental noise.
During the development of catalysts for various chemical process (which is a likely place for this type of effect [if it exists]) we specify the reactants and look at the products.
The test reactor generally consists of a very simple heater wrapped around a quartz tube connected to a GC. We look at products and any excess heat generated would merely be
compensated by the PID controller and go unnoticed because we wouldn't be looking for it.

As far as Rossi's "catalyst", I've seen him do math and I have little faith in is abilities or truthfulness.

The point of this drivel is a small thermal signal (low signal to noise ratio) and very special conditions for its initiation would likely go unnoticed.

[sparkyy0007]

Here is one conjectured way that it might happen, there are a number of others. viewtopic.php?p=64077#64077

I have read it, now my head hurts.
Thanks

[Carl White]

Let me put it like this:
Whether or not there is any truth in the whole LENR 'phenomenon'/debate - I await some solid replicable evidence from other 'reputable' labs.

Trouble is, any other 'reputable' lab considering such work, will also be waiting to see if this whole commercialisation fiasco blows up in their face first. If they have any sense.

Any 'reputable' lab that starts work on LENR is suddenly 'irreputable'. It can't attract funding and it can't publish in the major journals. Its results must suddenly be the work of charlatans, then, because it isn't publishing in major journals.

That's one way to keep the lid on, I suppose.

It's not surprising, really. Who survives best in today's scientific establishment? The ones that are willing to play the game and not rock someone else's boat. The incrementalists. Original thinking only if it doesn't cross conventional thinking.

I'd say that the reaction of the crowd in that fateful conference, where, instead of being disappointed that new and interesting physics seemingly weren't opening up after all, gave a standing ovation to the presentation of lack of anomalous heat, is very telling of the whole attitude.

It could only be a guy like Rossi, independent (and therefore 'eccentric' or worse, people say) and with unconventional financial resources, who could carry the ball across the goal line here.

I am not dismissing him, out of hand, as a scammer. I will wait for sufficient and unbiased proof, one way or the other.

[stefanbanev]

Let me put it like this:
Whether or not there is any truth in the whole LENR 'phenomenon'/debate - I await some solid replicable evidence from other 'reputable' labs.

Trouble is, any other 'reputable' lab considering such work, will also be waiting to see if this whole commercialisation fiasco blows up in their face first. If they have any sense.

Any 'reputable' lab that starts work on LENR is suddenly 'irreputable'. It can't attract funding and it can't publish in the major journals. Its results must suddenly be the work of charlatans, then, because it isn't publishing in major journals.

That's one way to keep the lid on, I suppose.

It's not surprising, really. Who survives best in today's scientific establishment? The ones that are willing to play the game and not rock someone else's boat. The incrementalists. Original thinking only if it doesn't cross conventional thinking.

I'd say that the reaction of the crowd in that fateful conference, where, instead of being disappointed that new and interesting physics seemingly weren't opening up after all, gave a standing ovation to the presentation of lack of anomylous heat, is very telling of the whole attitude.

It could only be a guy like Rossi, independent (and therefore 'eccentric' or worse, people say) and with financial resources of his own, who could carry the ball across the goal line here.

At this stage the exposure is significant enough to ensure that if it is for
real it will prevail in 1....10 years. Once many researchers may see that
some trickery/fancy combination of conventional know-how indeed
promises a VERY significant reword they will work 25 hours per day to get
it. Frankly, the device is claimed to be ready for industrial usage so
investors do not need to wander and look for an academia blessing (case
of investing into R&D) they just hire a technician to measure input/output
ratio (costs top 100 $/hour + basic equipment).

Stefan

[KitemanSA]

[Anyway, since this is a new thread, I will recap my position.

* LENR is improbable.
* If LENR processes are real, the claimed orders of magnitude improvement in LENR by Rossi is improbable.
* The claimed cheap isotopic separation process of Rossi is improbable.
* The claim that apparently impotent Leonardo Corporation is capable of ECAT production is improbable.

No balloon and no aeroplane will ever be practically successful.

Mayhaps you are wrong too.

[Ivy Matt]

Take the first laser for example, without prior knowledge
of electron excitation levels and population inversion there is no way the lasing effect would have been stumbled upon by accident and I don't think it can happen in nature.
The necessary precision of the optics alone would have prevented this without a determined effort.

Oddly enough:

http://laserstars.org/news/MWC349.html

For the one still interested in Rossi drama, I stated a couple of weeks ago that I was supposed to participate in a public conference about the e-Cat this Saturday.
Unfortunately I will have a medical check-up tomorrow, so I will not be there and I will not be able to report about the proceedings.

There is rumors that there might be a live broadcast on the net.
If I get a link I will post it here, even thought it will be all in Italian.

The "one"? Is that me?

Too bad you won't be there. I'm looking forward to any report from the conference, and particularly what Celani and Virgilio have to say. Someone has been very quiet throughout this whole affair, and I'm wondering what he's been up to. (Industrial espionage, of course! )

[sparkyy0007]

Oddly enough:

http://laserstars.org/news/MWC349.html

I stand corrected, that's amazing.
I can't even find this with a google search, thanks.

[KitemanSA]

Here is one conjectured way that it might happen, there are a number of others. viewtopic.php?p=64077#64077

I have read it, now my head hurts.
Thanks

If that is for the info, you are welcome.
If it is for making your head hurt, I'm sorry!

[Giorgio]

For the one still interested in Rossi drama, I stated a couple of weeks ago that I was supposed to participate in a public conference about the e-Cat this Saturday.
Unfortunately I will have a medical check-up tomorrow, so I will not be there and I will not be able to report about the proceedings.

There is rumors that there might be a live broadcast on the net.
If I get a link I will post it here, even thought it will be all in Italian.

The "one"? Is that me?

Too bad you won't be there. I'm looking forward to any report from the conference, and particularly what Celani and Virgilio have to say. Someone has been very quiet throughout this whole affair, and I'm wondering what he's been up to. (Industrial espionage, of course! )

Yes, there should be some news from Piantelli also. I still hope that they can set up a live stream, otherwise I will make a translation of the news as they are published on the various blogs.

[Kahuna]

Here is an article from NBF about the Defkalion demo plant being selfsuffient after started. Now that is a demo I could embrace!

Since the ultimate source is Rossi, again we can only wait for the demo. Defkalion keeps saying they are on/ahead of schedule so who knows. I would have expected the excuses for delays to have started by now (or at least hints of them) but I have nto seen much of this sort of thing yet. Perhaps August is the month of excuses/delays.

http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/07/rossi- ... gfuture%29

[Enginerd]

* The coffee machine is improbable.

I must have missed whatever you are referring to...
What is improbable about a coffee machine?

[rcain]

* The coffee machine is improbable.

I must have missed whatever you are referring to...
What is improbable about a coffee machine?

.. that Rossi will ever be in a position to buy himself a new one.. ever again