TANSTAAFL!
2,000,000,000 yrs of fossil fuels used in 200 years sounds like attempt to deny this. But, as you say, it will not work!
Tom
Dim Sun Anyone?
Tom,As for stressing humans => stressing environment. Humans are a good deal more adaptable than this.
I described what humans actually do. You are giving me what you hope they will do. Not very scientific. BTW we have also seen deforestation in Africa due to humans who lack alternative resources for fuel.
As to GW being certain? Of course. And global cooling too. At least 5 events since the late 1800s coincident with the PDO cycles. The most recent being the warming that ended in the 30s and the cooling that ended in the late 70s. All of which created a rash of newspaper stories.
And since the PDO has gone negative we are cooling again.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.
It appears we have at least 200 more years of coal. As to oil: we may have another 100 years worth at least. Esp. if you count tar sands and shale oil.tomclarke wrote:TANSTAAFL!
2,000,000,000 yrs of fossil fuels used in 200 years sounds like attempt to deny this. But, as you say, it will not work!
Tom
And using them is a good thing. It has raised billions out of poverty.
Bucky Fuller called those resources civilization's starter battery. Use them until something more economical is developed.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.
More certain than AGW.Sure, it is uncertain how we adapt to changed costs.
Even Rajendra Pachauri, the head of the IPCC, reluctantly admitted to Reuters in January that there has been no warming so far in the 21st Century.
http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/col ... eb8fa9081a
Last edited by MSimon on Tue May 19, 2009 10:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.
If they are transnational they will certainly be a cash cow. Who votes on their UN representative?I agree that these necessary transnational taxes must not be a cash cow for governments.
And if China and India do not buy in it is all in vain.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.
I will believe this is serious when the Europeans at least hold their CO2 output steady. In fact CO2 output is rising faster in Europe than in America and so far the Americans have promised to do nothing. While the Euros have promised reductions.What is happening all over Europe? They have plans to build a lot of coal fired power plants. Yep. Coal fired power plants. That would be plants that use (for practical purposes) 100% carbon. Not oil. Not natural gas. Both of which are a lot more expensive than coal. So they are buying based on price not catastrophe.
http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/200 ... ghter.html
What can we say about the Europeans? They do not keep their promises. That is rather naughty don't you think? How are Americans going to be convinced to take AGW seriously when those supposedly most committed to AGW don't?
Tell you what though. I promise to change my beliefs when Europeans change their actions.
It is worse than that even Tom. Euros have canceled their subsidies for wind and solar. The governments claim they can't afford them. Can't afford to prevent a catastrophe they supposedly believe in? What kind of people are they?
We have an old saying in America: "actions speak louder than words". In Texas they are a bit more crude: "Money talks, bullshite walks".
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.
Some newspaper history:
It was five years before the turn of the century and major media were warning of disastrous climate change. Page six of The New York Times was headlined with the serious concerns of “geologists.” Only the president at the time wasn’t Bill Clinton; it was Grover Cleveland. And the Times wasn’t warning about global warming – it was telling readers the looming dangers of a new ice age.
The year was 1895, and it was just one of four different time periods in the last 100 years when major print media predicted an impending climate crisis. Each prediction carried its own elements of doom, saying Canada could be “wiped out” or lower crop yields would mean “billions will die.”
http://www.businessandmedia.org/special ... andice.asp
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.
Dude,Sure, it is uncertain how we adapt to changed costs. But less uncertain than the changes induced by GW. And should increased costs prove catastrophic: "Voila!" we can change them immediately. this is not true for GW.
You really don't know how government works. Taxes for the Spanish American War were not rescinded until 2006s IIRC. That is 108 years.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industrie ... -tax_x.htm
Tom,
I have to say that in many areas the map in your brain and the real world are not congruent. Just to put you right. In most cases governments are for sale to the highest bidder.
Here is what Jim Hansen of AGW fame had to say about that:
I can even give you a war of 1812 version: until recently Brits paid a guy in Southern England to keep an eye out for Napoleon's fleet.Why is this cap-and-trade temple of doom worshipped? The 648 page cap-and-trade monstrosity that is being foisted on the U.S. Congress provides the answer. Not a single Congressperson has read it. They don’t need to – they just need to add more paragraphs to support their own special interests. By the way, the Congress people do not write most of those paragraphs – they are “suggested” by people in alligator shoes.
http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/200 ... t-off.html
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.
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ravingdave
- Posts: 650
- Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:41 am
tomclarke wrote:Simon,
A small correction.
GW is not an uncertain event.
GW is a certain event with very uncertain consequences.
You are asserting that Global Warming is a CERTAIN event ? Well, yeah, if you mean that in a billion years or so our sun is going to expand and fry the planet, then sure, it's a certain event, but if you are referring to the ole Carbon Dioxide scam, then you really need to be introduced to a Negative feedback control system AKA (also known as) Water.
With water in control, C02 has as much impact as a baseball thrown at a battleship.
David
ravingdave -
GW is hapenning. Certain. Consequences not certain.
Unfortunately the planet seems to have ratehr more positive feedbacks than negative. if you look at climate history the norm is for climate to be very unstable with sudden changes hotter or coller. The last 10K years have been unusual. However by altering the CO2 concerntration in the atmosphere (and in otehr ways - e.g. rai forest destruction) we are probably making enough perturbation to move away from the comfortable state that has allowed our civilisation to flourish - at least that is one view of prehistorians.
GW is hapenning. Certain. Consequences not certain.
Unfortunately the planet seems to have ratehr more positive feedbacks than negative. if you look at climate history the norm is for climate to be very unstable with sudden changes hotter or coller. The last 10K years have been unusual. However by altering the CO2 concerntration in the atmosphere (and in otehr ways - e.g. rai forest destruction) we are probably making enough perturbation to move away from the comfortable state that has allowed our civilisation to flourish - at least that is one view of prehistorians.
Tom seems to be able to skip over inconvenient truths rather easily:KitemanSA wrote:I think the more accurate statement is the GW WAS happening but now seems to have switched to GC, with uncertain consequences.tomclarke wrote:ravingdave -
GW is hapenning. Certain. Consequences not certain.
Even Rajendra Pachauri, the head of the IPCC, reluctantly admitted to Reuters in January that there has been no warming so far in the 21st Century.
http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/col ... eb8fa9081a
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.
-
ravingdave
- Posts: 650
- Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:41 am
tomclarke wrote:ravingdave -
GW is hapenning. Certain. Consequences not certain.
Unfortunately the planet seems to have ratehr more positive feedbacks than negative. if you look at climate history the norm is for climate to be very unstable with sudden changes hotter or coller. The last 10K years have been unusual. However by altering the CO2 concerntration in the atmosphere (and in otehr ways - e.g. rai forest destruction) we are probably making enough perturbation to move away from the comfortable state that has allowed our civilisation to flourish - at least that is one view of prehistorians.
Positive feedback causes wild oscillations. I don't mean a few degrees here and there, I mean hundreds of degrees.
The proof that the system has negative feedback is the fact that we exist at all.
The temperature cycle of this planet is completely controlled by water and water vapour. Here's the quick version.
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Diffusion of water into air increases with heat.
Water vapor in air increases thermal absorption and the reservoir of heat storage.
More absorptive and better heat storage in the atmosphere increases the temperature, therefore driving an increase in diffusion of water molecules into the air.
This is the Positive feedback system you are referring to.
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Increase in atmospheric water vapor results in an increase in clouds in the upper atmosphere.
Clouds in upper atmosphere reflect more sunlight away from the planet, thereby reducing the planets temperature.
In other words, More clouds equal less absorbed heat in the atmosphere, equals less diffusion equals less water vapor.
Less clouds equals more sunlight hitting the surface (and warming the atmosphere all the way from space to the ground) increasing heat, increasing diffusion causing temperature to rise until clouds are created which cuts off the sunlight from hitting the surface.
If water was a positive feedback system, there would be no life on this planet. The fact that water is a negative feedback system is proven because life exists.
CO2 isn't even a player in this game.
David
David,
Pity that control theory is not taught in grade school. It explains so much from economics to climate. It doesn't have to get as deep as designing a PID loop. Or Laplace Transformations. Just a few general principles.
Pity that control theory is not taught in grade school. It explains so much from economics to climate. It doesn't have to get as deep as designing a PID loop. Or Laplace Transformations. Just a few general principles.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.