Talk-Polywell.org

I just realized why the world seems insane right now. Hear me out and please try to disprove me.
I stumbled over a conversation from 1999 between Clinton and Yeltsin in which Yeltsin openly asked for Europe. Shortly after, Putin came into power.
In my opinion Russia has been running a hybrid war against Europe since slightly before then. Like the classic KGB playbook it relies on subversion, corruption, infiltration and manipulation. I asked ChatGPT for a list of all European politicians that were affiliated with Rozneft, Gazprom, Lukoil or other Russian companies and oligarchs, either before or after their time in office. I also asked for the list of politicians that openly supported Russia. The resulting list was very long and goes through all political parties, though some more than others and it varies by country. I then went on to ask about NGOs with affiliation with Russia and the parties they generally support. The result is pretty devastating: Almost all political parties, except for the youngest ones are affected. Russia controlled energy policy and immigration on one side and has openly Russia- friendly parties on the other side.
That means, no matter who Europeans vote for, Russia wins. Here is the result of the conversation with ChatGPT
It seems like the Polish are about the only ones who have realized that. Donald Tusk's politics is what Europe needs to win, but (unlike in 1683) Poland alone cannot safe Europe, this time.

With Europe falling to Russia, what is happening now, is a consolidation of spheres of influence between the US, Russia and China (which was still relatively weak back in 1999) and a struggle for control of the rest of the world.

If we assume that the above conclusions are all correct, even Trumps seemingly completely erratic foreign policies suddenly make some sense (and I hate to say that).

If Europe and with that Denmark become part of the Russian hegemony, owning Greenland is indeed necessary for US national security. Trump is sort of echoing Yeltsin in the conversation above when he is talking about protecting Greenland. I am not sure about Canada as it was already firmly in the US sphere. From the same perspective, the aggression towards Panama makes sense. It is the key to controlling South America and important trade routes of course. Argentina and El Salvador are friendly with the US now, but many central American and South American countries could side with Russia or China.

Russia has a foothold in the middle east through Iran and its proxies. I think that the Saudis are siding with Israel (which the US will never give up), hoping to keep their independence.

As for Africa, I am not sure yet. Mostly Russia, I presume.

It is clear that China will take Taiwan and the Philippines, as well as South Korea, maybe also Japan (though that one might turn out to be tougher for them than people think). I wonder whether Trump is planning to side with Russia to keep China's influence as small as possible.
Talking about that, I am wondering where Australia will end up. It is too far away from Russia, but relatively close to China and I noticed some Chinese influence there lately. At the same time, they are still closer to the US in many ways.

Thoughts?

The very thought of Russia dominating Europe is ridiculous. Russia have problems keeping their land from rottening from within. Not counting their energy exports their foreign trade is smaller than Swedens and their country is largely looking like more like Upper Volta and the Central African Republic than any developed nation. They will not dominate anything nor exert any lasting influence anywhere.

They certainly hire a lot of trolls and do a lot of shadowy influencing. Still, that kind of propaganda is the weapon of the weak and the poor. I say it was far worse in the sixties, seventies and eighties.

Back then, there were people cincerely believing that socialism would lead a better world. Now we are simply dealing with a bunch of thieves, murderers, warcriminals, terrorists, robber barrons, cleptocrates, rapists, druglords and whoremongers that should firstly be ousted, then kept from assaulting their neighbours and then held accountable for their deeds. And thats pretty much the end of the discussion.

So I can't say it worries me much. They are efforts are really crude and primitive and they are exposed, put into question and ousted from the platforms in a totally different manor nowadays.

For example, the russians have a big state run enterprise in St:Petersburg with young people trained in swedish spreading putlerist manure on swedish forums. It´s a highly counterproductive effort. They are easily identified and ridiculed. I usually approach them on grammar issues telling them that they are making mistakes russian military trained interpreters didn't do twenty years ago. The standard is not what it used to be. And I can say that because I have extensive training in the russian language from your own teachers at the Moscow State University. You should ask your boss for a better translation program.

I agree Europe has made a lot of bad decisions in energy and migration. Which are both complex topics. There are elements of russian influence in it but of minuscule real impact I dare say. Regarding migration I would say delusional liberal multiculturalist teachings from the opposite compass direction has made far more harm.

From where did you get that Denmark is in danger of getting under russian control? Are you aware of how much that little country has sent to Ukraine? They have rid themselves of their artillery and sent it to Ukraine, sent F16:s and are financing 40 CV90:s out of their own pocket for Ukraine. Among many other things.

And that is just the beginning. All over Europe, defence industry is ramping up as fast as it can. All of Scandinavia and the Baltic states is engulfed in a deeply felt sense of urgency. I myself almost fall out of my bed from time to time from fighter jets starting on full afterburner and there is a constant smettering of gunfire and machine gun fire heard from all over town the military firing ranges .

The germans have a new bundeskansler who is activating emergency procedures in their constitution to finance their military build up:

https://www.instagram.com/germanyinusa/ ... MDZitCyFT/

Sometimes I really like the german language:

"Es werde jetzt an keiner Stelle mehr an den finanziellen Mitteln fehlen, um die Freiheit und den Frieden auf unserem Kontinent zu verteidigen, „Deutschland ist zurück“.

The Greenland issue is really somewhat confusing: The danes have traditionally let the americans do pretty much whatever they like on that island. With the condition that they make reasonable precautionary measures regarding environment and population.

Any issues regarding that should primarily be attributed to the rantings and rudities stemming from the cookie hole of that new president they have elected for themselves . Tends to be that way if you start threatening, yelling and barking at someone who has stood up for you in every way. Try getting together a somewhat comprehensive account of what you want to do instead. And send someone who is capable to behave himself in furnitured rooms. That will probably resolve the situation.

The russians are in no way unbeatable. They are clearly struggling with the little ukrainian nation and their warfare has deteriorated to company sized meat wave assaults of white haired old men, drug addicts, prison inmates, alcoholics and mental asylum patients in a mixture of civilan vehicles and outdated military ones.

Which the russians see as a kind of perverted social effort.

There is simply no way that bunch could resist a german army group sized assault with proper logistics and air support. The outcome of that confrontation would be similar to what happened in the autumn of 1941. But at present there is no german army group and it will take ten years of concentrated national effort to create one. All that was ditched during the decades of the eternal peace.

I end it there for the time being. I need to get myself something to eat. But please carry on with the discussion and I will return later.

With Europe falling to Russia, what is happening now, is a consolidation of spheres of influence between the US, Russia and China (which was still relatively weak back in 1999) and a struggle for control of the rest of the world.

What possible justification can there be for that claim? I am a european and I see no such thing. On the contrary.

Politically the extremist parties are generally well contained with the possible exception of Hungary. Things are looking rather well there too with Orban clearly being on the defensive. We await the outcome of the 2026 elections.

Militarily, Russia is losing the war of attrition in Ukraine. They are taking insustainable losses with minuscule gains.

As for Africa, I am not sure yet. Mostly Russia, I presume.

France alone have many orders of magnitude more influence in Africa than Russia has ever had or will ever have.

I wonder whether Trump is planning to side with Russia to keep China's influence as small as possible.

May I remind you that you already have an eighty year old ally? An ally with at least an order of magnitude more economic muscle than the Kremlin dictator. Do you really think that man will make a loyal and capable ally? One that will side with you against the chinese?

A bewildering claim really. That will simply not happen. May I inform you that Russia would already have collapsed in Ukraine without the support they are getting from the chinese.

The ukrainians have built their own domestic long distance strike capability and is clearly beginning to yield results from their efforts. This magnificent mushroom cloud could be seen in Toropets, Russia in september last year. It is not nuclear but 160 000 tons of artillery munitions going of:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukhqqRdhcMw

Half the remaining russian reserves went up in smoke in that bang. The chinese are making up for that now. The chinese munitions are repacked into North Korean crates and sent by North Korean trains to conceal it.

Just for context, I am European and I am watching the developments in Europe with growing concern.
A large percentage of European citizens say they would not go to a war against Russia. That is quite sad, really. In Germany, many even politicians in parliament openly take a pro- Russian stance. Several have openly said that they would rather live under Russian occupation than to defend their country. Some even say they would welcome it. This is treasonous!

And to make this clear, I am not even that worried about a direct war with Russia (though some states are in danger), but more about a silent overtaking by pro- Russian elements. The conversation with ChatGPT was seriously concerning. The amount of influence Russia has taken on European politics both directly and indirectly is staggering.

What also worries me is the destabilization of Europe from the inside through social and economic issues.

As for immigration being purely a matter of liberal delusions, the Polish and the Fins say otherwise. They have been talking about waves of immigrants directed at Europe by Russia for a while. It makes sense too. E.g. Syrians came in masses once Russia went there. This has been further facilitated by certain NGOs. Some of which have had ties to Russia.

Europe's sad energy policy is another example. It has been driven by NGOs, many with proven, direct ties to Russia as well as corrupt politicians in all parties that led to a dependence on Russian fossil fuels. I mean, you have to realize that Europe sent more money to Russia last year, than to Ukraine. Europe is financing the armament of its worst enemy! And then some politicians openly call for rebuilding NordStream2. That is crazy!

And looking at upcoming politics in Germany, it looks like the new government is just going to do more of the same in regards to both immigration and energy. Depressing, stupid and IMHO likely also corrupt.

I thought you were american...

Generally, I think it is a fairly solid statement that the acceptance of a russian overtake shows an inverse relationship to actual experience of russian rule.

With a few notable exceptions.

I agree the russians are active in the opinion formation arena with some notable successes. Still, the western media bransch as a whole is a highly competitive place managing wast resources and skills. If the russians succeed with their comparatively minuscule and crude means, it is our own fault.

Something that could be rather easily corrected is to provide correct and neutral information about how the russians work and what living under russian rule has meant to those subjected. Knowledge of the crimes of the nazi regiment is firmly rooted in the western public mind. Knowledge of the russian ones less so. That can be changed.

The fins and the poles have received far less migrants than Sweden, Norway and Germany. I would rather say that specific russian campaign has been highly effective in ending a lot of liberal delusions about migrations.

But I agree, you are right, we have a really,really problematic situation at hand.

However aversive, the erratic Trump/Vance behaviour might be a very healthy slap in the face of the europeans.

Security on the European continent can and should be the responsibility of the europeans. America can't pay for it anymore. As you depicted above there is a situation growing in the pacific that will need all the force they can muster. Traditionally, America has won it's wars by outproducing it's enemies. There is no way they will outproduce the chinese. They have a domestic debt crisis of the same kind that doomed the roman empire, the british empire and so many other empires during history

This time, they need to do it some other way.

I prefer to look at the bright side of things. Ukraine was expected to capitulate in three days. Three years on, they are still alive and fighting and ukrainian public opinion is still overwhelmingly in favour of carrying on the fight.

The european states are still holding together, most of the delivered war materiel thus far is provided by the europeans and we are quickly ramping up.

The russians are as weak as they will ever be. It is far to early to speculate in land concessions. Every russian soldier surviving this fight is a soldier that has to dealt with later when the russians turn their attention towards the Baltic states and possibly Finland.

So, for the time being, our best option is to stay calm, carry on the way we do and keep producing more shells.