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Filipino Reps: "End Climate Madness" After Super-Taiphung

Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 12:49 am
by Schneibster
They have vowed a hunger strike at the climate talks in Poland. Many of their representatives don't know if their families are alive or dead.

And the climate cranks are still denying.

Deny this:

Image

Re: Filipino Reps: "End Climate Madness" After Super-Taiphun

Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 4:04 am
by JohnFul
Yes troll, we must return the 9 realms to the state that existed "before" to darkness.....

Re: Filipino Reps: "End Climate Madness" After Super-Taiphun

Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 1:35 pm
by Stubby
That is ridiculous. One big assed storm, possibly the first Cat 6 storm ever and certainly a storm that exceeds the parameters of the Dvorak system of classification, doesn't confirm or deny anything.
People will point to the almost non existent Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 as a counter point.
This storm is just another data point. If this had been e.g. the season's 6th storm of the same magnitude...

I will be watching Europe this winter. There have been predictions of a bitterly cold one.
Personally I think it will a very snowy one because the energy stored in the waters were Atlantic hurricanes normally spawn is still there. The Gulf Stream is now the only outlet for that energy, pointed right at Europe.

Re: Filipino Reps: "End Climate Madness" After Super-Taiphun

Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 2:37 pm
by paperburn1
Having family in the PI (yes they are safe) I can safely say the Philippines get hit on average twenty times a year. Not to downplay the extent of the damage but it was confined to a small portion of the Cebu region. Other areas of the storm were not hit hard. What made this storm so devastating was the fact the high winds were confined to a small swath less than fifty miles wide with forward speed of 40 knots. . So on the northwest side you had wind in excess of 175 MPH. In the high wind area devastation was complete. No traditional nipa homes survived, block building took 80 percent failure, hurricane proof building failed at 50 percent. You can actually look at aerial photos and see a clear demarcation line of destruction. One side AFU the other side much less damage, much like a tornado. This is the unnaturalness of this storm was by the eye wall reforming so small and tight actually eliminating structures/everything in the eye wall path. The same thing almost happened in homestead Florida several years ago. This storm is on the same scale. Rare but not unheard of.

Re: Filipino Reps: "End Climate Madness" After Super-Taiphun

Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 4:39 pm
by choff

Re: Filipino Reps: "End Climate Madness" After Super-Taiphun

Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 8:57 pm
by Schneibster
Tell it to the Filipinos on hunger strike.

Re: Filipino Reps: "End Climate Madness" After Super-Taiphun

Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 9:48 pm
by hanelyp
Wind intensities of that storm were widely misreported. From http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/09/s ... y-reports/
So at landfall the sustained wind was 235 kmh or 147 mph, with gusts upto 275 kmh or 171 mph.
A category 4, far from one of the most intense hurricanes on record. The 235 mph figure reported was apparently an error in unit confusion, unchallenged in newsrooms because it fit the media template.

From the same source, casualty estimates are all over the place.

Re: Filipino Reps: "End Climate Madness" After Super-Taiphun

Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 9:53 pm
by Schneibster
"Scientists at the U.S. Navy/Air Force's Joint Typhoon Warning Center infer that Haiyan produced sustained wind speeds of around 190 or 195 mph at its peak. John Nielsen-Gammon, the Texas state climatologist at Texas A&M University, says gusts blew up to 230 mph, which is as fast as a speeding race car."

http://www.npr.org/2013/11/11/244572227 ... uch-damage

No, it wasn't a typo.

Willard is lying to you again. And you're mindlessly repeating it again.

Re: Filipino Reps: "End Climate Madness" After Super-Taiphun

Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 10:35 pm
by Stubby
The Dvorak technique is used in lieu of hurricane aircraft flying through the eye wall.
The Dvorak technique is based sorely on satellite images.
The errors for using the above Dvorak technique in comparison to aircraft measurements taken in the Northwest Pacific average 10 mb with a standard deviation of 9 mb (Martin and Gray 1993).
The chances of the Dvorak technique analysis, which indicated a higher than T8 storm (T8.1)AND a misread of velocity units is ridiculously low.

The difference between T8 (strong CAT5) and CAT4 is ~60mB.

Re: Filipino Reps: "End Climate Madness" After Super-Taiphun

Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 10:56 pm
by Schneibster
I just don't see what's implausible about 40mph gusts in a 190mph hurricane.

What are you fighting, Stubby? I seem to have missed something.

Re: Filipino Reps: "End Climate Madness" After Super-Taiphun

Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 11:18 pm
by Stubby
the watts article refered to a units error. They propose that the 235kph became 235mph in the MSM and that the storm was not as intense as reported by the MSM.

I call BS.
The chances of a units error AND the Dvorak technique being wrong/misread are ridiculously small.
The Dvorak technique has been used since the 70s. Its accuracy has been verified using hurricane hunter data and shown to be +-10mB. The error between 235kph and 235mph represents a 60mB and 1.5-2.0 difference.

Re: Filipino Reps: "End Climate Madness" After Super-Taiphun

Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 12:05 am
by MSimon
Schneibster,

The Philippines should declare war on Russia, China, and India. I believe that will be more effective than starving to death.

Although if they do the starvation on camera it might prove interesting and profitable. Have they considered starving on a Pay Per View basis?

Re: Filipino Reps: "End Climate Madness" After Super-Taiphun

Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 12:13 am
by MSimon
This seems to be a good article on wind speed:

http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablo ... l-cyclones


The strongest tropical cyclones in world history
Super Typhoon

Code: Select all

                Year Winds, mph      mb  Landfall?
Nancy       1961 	         215 	    882 	Made landfall as a Cat 2 in Japan, killing 191 people
Violet 	1961 	         205      886 	Made landfall in Japan as a tropical storm, killing 2 people
Ida 	        1958 	         200 	    877 	Made landfall as a Cat 1 in Japan, killing 1269 people
[b]Haiyan 	2013 	         195 	    895 	Made landfall in the Philippines at peak strength.[/b]
Kit 	        1966   	 195 	    880 	Did not make landfall.
Sally 	        1964 	         195      895       Made landfall as a Cat 4 in the Philippines.
A better version of the chart is at the link.

195 mph = 314 kph

Re: Filipino Reps: "End Climate Madness" After Super-Taiphun

Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 12:51 am
by Schneibster
Stubby wrote:the watts article refered to a units error. They propose that the 235kph became 235mph in the MSM and that the storm was not as intense as reported by the MSM.

I call BS.
The chances of a units error AND the Dvorak technique being wrong/misread are ridiculously small.
The Dvorak technique has been used since the 70s. Its accuracy has been verified using hurricane hunter data and shown to be +-10mB. The error between 235kph and 235mph represents a 60mB and 1.5-2.0 difference.
Excellent, thanks.

Re: Filipino Reps: "End Climate Madness" After Super-Taiphun

Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 1:03 am
by Schneibster
MSimon wrote:Schneibster,

The Philippines should declare war on Russia, China, and India.
Why Russia?