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Aren't the Arab countries already dangerously overpopulated, prompting the lower birth rate and emigration. In Canada the birth rate is below replication, but the population increases because of immigration?

choff wrote:Aren't the Arab countries already dangerously overpopulated, prompting the lower birth rate and emigration. In Canada the birth rate is below replication, but the population increases because of immigration?

Egypt used to be the bread basket of the Mediterranean. They can't even feed themselves now. Why? Ignorant peasants on farms (vs modern agriculture) are easier to control.

http://www.grist.org/article/2011-02-05 ... acy-crisis

It looks like Egypts population doubled under Mubarek. If they modernize agriculture they might be able to produce more food, but at the cost of adding unemployed farmers to the mix, a real double bind. Can Isreali agriculture feed 24 million people? I know its very innovative but thats a big jump. All another reason to hope for a fusion power breakthrough.

Egypt is a bomb ready to explode, the Tahrir square demonstrations are just the tip of the iceberg.
Egyptian have been pushed by Imams and religious organizations to make as many children as they could for the last 40 years because they had to get ready for the next holy war against Israel. They even had annual national prizes for the families that was making more children in a set period. Enough to say that most of the workers I knew there was coming from families of up to 12 children.
They tried to push industrialization in the 80's to absorb the mass of new workers that was growing, but the population rate of growth was simply too high.

Economic crisis and the Russian wildfires of the last year (that reduced grain export to Egypt and middle east up to 60%) didn't help the situation, and now, with Mubarak out of the picture, I am afraid that the country is starting to slide down the hill.

If they blow up it will be a huge mess for the middle east and for most of the western countries.
Let's not forget that they control the Suez canal.

Let's not forget that they control the Suez canal.

The Suez is not vitally important to the US. We have the Atlantic, the Pacific and the use of Panama. And enough oil for 100 years minimum. It is essential for Europe.

The alternative is more oil tankers, more oil/petrol products in storage. The Horn of Africa. Higher prices.

Of course the Euros are working on the new gas drilling methods. And they also may have the Israelis as an alternate source of LNG in time.

Giorgio,

Totally OT. How do you say "When the rubber meets the road" in Italian? I really liked the phrase when I first heard it but all I remember is "gomma" and "via". I believe it was a Pirelli slogan at one time. BTW love the Pirelli calendars and I always preferred Pirelli for my motorcycle tires. Good stuff.

And for those from Anglo Countries and others NSFW

http://vimeo.com/17380083

http://www.pirellical.com/thecal/home.page

http://www.us.pirelli.com/web/company/m ... fault.page

MSimon wrote:

Let's not forget that they control the Suez canal.

The Suez is not vitally important to the US. We have the Atlantic, the Pacific and the use of Panama. And enough oil for 100 years minimum. It is essential for Europe.

Is not only about oil imports, there is a good chunk of international commercial traffic going in both directions and passing from the Suez canal.

If Europe and Asia will suffer from issues related to the Suez canal it will be the same for the US trade relations with his partners in Europe and Asia

Giorgio wrote:

MSimon wrote:

Let's not forget that they control the Suez canal.

The Suez is not vitally important to the US. We have the Atlantic, the Pacific and the use of Panama. And enough oil for 100 years minimum. It is essential for Europe.

Is not only about oil imports, there is a good chunk of international commercial traffic going in both directions and passing from the Suez canal.

If Europe and Asia will suffer from issues related to the Suez canal it will be the same for the US trade relations with his partners in Europe and Asia

True. The Suez is important to the US. It is vital for Europe. And as you point out if Europe suffers so will the US.

IMO Eisenhower was an idiot in 1956. But America was rabidly anti-colonialist at the time. So he was in step with the times.

MSimon wrote:Giorgio,

Totally OT. How do you say "When the rubber meets the road" in Italian? I really liked the phrase when I first heard it but all I remember is "gomma" and "via". I believe it was a Pirelli slogan at one time. BTW love the Pirelli calendars and I always preferred Pirelli for my motorcycle tires. Good stuff.

And for those from Anglo Countries and others NSFW

http://vimeo.com/17380083

http://www.pirellical.com/thecal/home.page

http://www.us.pirelli.com/web/company/m ... fault.page

I think it was Firestone, I hardly remember it, it was something like "Dove la gomma incontra la strada" or "Quando la gomma tocca la via".
I really can't remember it.

The Pirelli one is "Power is nothing without control". And I do agree, best tires for motorcycle. I was using the Pirelli Diablo racing. Amazing grip, it was like having glue under the wheels.

Giorgio,

Thanks!

My pleasure.

Giorgio wrote:Egypt is a bomb ready to explode, the Tahrir square demonstrations are just the tip of the iceberg.
Egyptian have been pushed by Imams and religious organizations to make as many children as they could for the last 40 years because they had to get ready for the next holy war against Israel. They even had annual national prizes for the families that was making more children in a set period. Enough to say that most of the workers I knew there was coming from families of up to 12 children.
They tried to push industrialization in the 80's to absorb the mass of new workers that was growing, but the population rate of growth was simply too high.

Economic crisis and the Russian wildfires of the last year (that reduced grain export to Egypt and middle east up to 60%) didn't help the situation, and now, with Mubarak out of the picture, I am afraid that the country is starting to slide down the hill.

If they blow up it will be a huge mess for the middle east and for most of the western countries.
Let's not forget that they control the Suez canal.

If this is true then Egypt has been run by complete idiots, do they not even understand what a nuclear bomb is capable of doing, or that Isreal has nearly 300. I could understand such stupidity maybe 40 years ago but people can't stay that dumb forever.
They just had a revolution using social media and cell phones. A lot of educated Arab people have been living in western democracies and coming home to fight in Libya. Either that or everything we've been hearing in the news out of the ME is complete propaganda and far more sinister forces are at work.

choff wrote:If this is true then Egypt has been run by complete idiots, do they not even understand what a nuclear bomb is capable of doing, or that Isreal has nearly 300. I could understand such stupidity maybe 40 years ago but people can't stay that dumb forever.

It was run by people trying to balance International obligations, religious obligations and personal interests at the same time.
Mubarak was pretty good at doing it, yet even him could do little against the majority of Imams pushing for an increase of population and asking for volunteer to go to fight Jihads around the world in the name of Islam.
Many involved in Palestinian terrorism acts since the 70's were in fact Egyptians, not Palestinians. The successor of Bin Laden, Al Zawahri, is an highly educated Egyptian (he is a surgeon).
Like all Muslim countries (except maybe Turkey) religion IS politics and politics is mainly subjugated to religion.

I am not sure what will happen there now that Mubarak is out of the picture.
I believe that the best we can hope for is a military regime that will keep the country together and the extremist under control.
The probable alternative being that the "muslim brotherhood" will take control of the country through democratic elections just to instate Sharia right after. Anyone remembers Iran?

choff wrote:They just had a revolution using social media and cell phones. A lot of educated Arab people have been living in western democracies and coming home to fight in Libya.

Unfortunately this is a big misconception we have. Being educated has nothing to do with being in accordance with Western values. I will not be surprised at all if most of these "educated" people will be asking to enforce the Sharia once the war is over.
I am afraid Libya is another big mess we have made, and I hope to be wrong on this.

choff wrote:Either that or everything we've been hearing in the news out of the ME is complete propaganda and far more sinister forces are at work.

I would say that our view of ME is filtered with our strong belief that freedom is an universal value and concept.
We should realize that we reached this point because we had to enforce many dark ages and bloody revolutions. ME is still far away to reach or perspective of what freedom is.

I'd like to think that some good will come out of the latest uprisings. You would think the Arabs that have lived in the west a few years might get a few ideas for back home. I'm disappointed by the Syrian president, the guy was studying medicine in England when he got the call to replace his father, learned nothing unfortunately.