We'll know in....

Discuss life, the universe, and everything with other members of this site. Get to know your fellow polywell enthusiasts.

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rj40
Posts: 288
Joined: Sat Feb 09, 2008 2:31 am
Location: Southern USA

Post by rj40 »

MSimon wrote:
Giorgio wrote:
MSimon wrote:Based on some inside information I'm not at liberty to divulge I'd say August or September MIGHT be a good time. Me? I've sort of lost burning interest and am willing to let events unfold.
Now I am wondering if you lost interest because of EMC2 attitude or due to the type of information you received......
Events. I'm obsessed with Fukushima. What I learned hasn't affected my long term interest. Just my wish for instant gratification.
Oh well. I guess we knew in two years. Perhaps our new Green Peace overlords will be kind as they lead us the pedal centers to provide green power for the developing world [whip cracks]. :-)

chrismb
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Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2008 6:00 pm

Post by chrismb »

Polywell is an experiment whose results are 2 years away, and will always be 2 years away.

It has become EXACTLY like the sorry saga of tokamaks - just on a 1/10th scale.

I am incredulous that in 1980 Bussard had the audacity to suggest we needed to put away the 20-odd years of stop-start large budget research on tokamaks because he felt it failed to show any concept-proving successes - and for what!? 20-odd years of stop-start small scale budged on polywell that has failed to show any concept-proving successes!?

The thing that gets me in all this is that the likes of Bussard, Hirsch and Furth managed to bulldoze unworkable beam-target ideas into patents and experiments because.... why?.. because they had a brilliant workable idea!?!?... or because they were already purse-string pullers of DoE [tax-payers'] money? Take a guess....

It's who y'know that counts, not what y'know. As always. As forever.

Keep the gravy-train going, guys. Yum, yum for my tum. Best not pick up on anyone else's idea out-of-the-fold, else we might lose our dinner-ticket.

Betruger
Posts: 2336
Joined: Tue May 06, 2008 11:54 am

Post by Betruger »

Yeah right. Maybe after the "2 years" and single digit million dollar contracts have bloated in proportion to Tokamaks' duration and funding.

Fusion and Control
of Electron Losses
WB-6 2005

Validation of WB-6 Results With Improved Diagnostics
WB-7 2008

Fusion R&D Phase 1 - Validate and extend WB-6 results with WB-7 Device:
1.5 years / $1.8M, Successfully Completed

Confinement Behavior
With Detailed Diagnostics
WB-7.1 2010

Fusion R&D Phase 2 - Design, build and test larger scale WB-8 Polywell Device
2 years / $7M, In Process

Fusion R&D Phase 3 - Design, build and test full scale 100 MW Fusion System:
4 years / $200M, In Design Phase

---------------------------------

You'll have all the support you want once Polywell gets to Phase 3 and lingers there like Toks have.

ladajo
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Joined: Thu Sep 17, 2009 11:18 pm
Location: North East Coast

Post by ladajo »

Which could be more a reality than we have really discussed to date.
Even with scaling of whatever degree from .1 to .8T, then jumping the system to full size 1.5M and 3+T (Or whatever Magnet tech will support at that moment) is a whole 'nother ball of wax.

chrismb
Posts: 3161
Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2008 6:00 pm

Post by chrismb »

I like Betruger's point.... if the aim is to get onto a permanently funded basis, then they appear to be taking a lesson from the tok guys!

This project looks less like it has turned 'black' and more a shade of 'gravy brown'.

Giorgio
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Location: China, Italy

Post by Giorgio »

I really hope we can get a definitive answer at the end of this contract, be it positive or negative.
At least on the fundamental issues like Wiffleball formation, circulation and scaling law.

KitemanSA
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Location: OlyPen WA

Post by KitemanSA »

"WE" undoubtedly will, but you and I aren't necessarily part of that "we"! :D

Giorgio
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Location: China, Italy

Post by Giorgio »

Eheheheh, unfortunately you are perfectly right :D

Betruger
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Joined: Tue May 06, 2008 11:54 am

Post by Betruger »

chrismb wrote:I like Betruger's point.... if the aim is to get onto a permanently funded basis, then they appear to be taking a lesson from the tok guys!

This project looks less like it has turned 'black' and more a shade of 'gravy brown'.
We're not there yet. I'll completely agree in a few years, if it goes that way.

Seriously - what fusion breakthru project is going to just blast right thru all difficulties, setbacks, obstacles of theoretical/experimental/funding/political/and any and all other types, like blowtorch thru butter? And all in just a handful of years? Short of some Manhattan project where everything goes just right in the whole complexity of it from A to Z, and all other dimensions such a modern day gargantuan project would have, I don't see it.

chrismb
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Post by chrismb »

Betruger wrote:Seriously - what fusion breakthru project is going to just blast right thru all difficulties, setbacks, obstacles of theoretical/experimental/funding/political/and any and all other types, like blowtorch thru butter? And all in just a handful of years?
The right solution, of course!?

Some believe that magnetic fields alone can lead us to fusion energy. Such people have been working to prove that for the last 60 years, and have failed.

Some believe that new physics is required, and once that breakthrough is made the rest will follow.

I believe that it is clear a combination of electric* and magnetic fields will provide an answer, as the likes of Rostoker, Bussard and myself have already had 'the hunch' over, and that once they have been correctly configured then it'll be an egg-of-Columbus thing - it'll be 'obvious' to everyone!!

*[The tok guys are beginning to wake up to the fact that the radial electric fields around the plasma are key to its stability even though, theoretically, there should be no such e-fields.]

However, until people actively recognise a solution as 'the' answer, then it'll be tough going, but that doesn't mean there isn't a solution already in existence, or nearly there with a few tweaks. The issue is in people trying to pick the working one from all the other fusion-detritus that blows around - hence my antipathy towards the likes of Rossi.

It was a no-brainer to run with Spitzer's stellartron in the early days - it looked like it might work and no-one else had come up with an alternative because Spitzer was the first to suggest magnetic fusion energy. Similar to tokamak, though it gained ground by being the first to a measured 1,000eV temp. After that, and the oil crisis, all hell broke loose and every bright spark had their own crazy idea on fusion. It's just like alchemy in this regard - once the very basics of chemistry were unlocked in medieval times it dawned on a few folks to use it to make gold, then everyone followed. This seems to me to be exactly the same as the discovery of nuclear physics and then the quest for energy.

But that story should give you the correct lead - there was an 'answer' to chemistry and if a medieval alchemist had been armed with a periodic table and a few choice chemistry course books, all the great chemical discoveries could have been compressed into a few years. The question would have been, though - would anyone have recognised the periodic table for what it is if one had magically dropped from the sky in medieval times?

So the answer is; most certainly could a fusion breakthrough happen and give us grid power within years. But who's seriously looking through all the ideas coming up to recognise one that might actually work?

Giorgio
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Post by Giorgio »

chrismb wrote:[The tok guys are beginning to wake up to the fact that the radial electric fields around the plasma are key to its stability even though, theoretically, there should be no such e-fields.]
We should be happy it took only 15 years since the original idea was proposed to the first "mild" acceptance.

chrismb
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Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2008 6:00 pm

Post by chrismb »

Giorgio wrote:
chrismb wrote:[The tok guys are beginning to wake up to the fact that the radial electric fields around the plasma are key to its stability even though, theoretically, there should be no such e-fields.]
We should be happy it took only 15 years since the original idea was proposed to the first "mild" acceptance.
When you say '15 years', do you have a reference for the time-line/first measurements of radial e-fields in tokamak, then?

Giorgio
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Location: China, Italy

Post by Giorgio »

Ono is the first reporter of such an effect (as far as I know) in 1988:
"Effects of high-power ion Bernstein waves on a Tokamak plasma"

Itoh (also 1988) was the one who first presented a theory claiming that radial electric fields affected the confinement times of energy and particles:
"Model of L to H-Mode Transition in Tokamak"

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