The monthly average gets rid of such biases. A hot wind isn't going to change the overall trend for a whole month, much less a whole year.
That is hand waving. There is no way you can get rid of such a bias by averaging. Why? Because in a chaotic system there is no way to be sure that one day's hot is likely to be matched by another days cold. At least not in one month.
Yearly? You have short term ocean current variations.
Decade scale? You have long term ocean current variations.
Centuries? Longer scale solar variation bias.
Where will it matter most? In the yearly frost line and growing season length. Those would be the most reliable indication of the climate from year to year.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.
MSimon wrote:In the yearly frost line and growing season length. Those would be the most reliable indication of the climate from year to year.
They move a few km a year, now, iirc.
I believe that is correct. Last year's growing season was shortened by two weeks in the front and two weeks at the end near the frost line. Not to mention unusual rain at the end of the season.
And the frost line has extended far into Florida this winter. A somewhat unusual occurrence . We will be getting a lot of orange juice from Brazil.
Personally? I hope next year is warmer.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.
Good thing that the records only go to one decimal point.
For thermometers with two point calibration (0C and 100C) the greatest error will be at around 50C. Or what ever is in the center of the two calibration points. Readings in tenths are probably optimistic.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.
We were experiencing unusually warm weather here after that cold snap. Lasted two weeks and we're only now beginning to get back to averages. I expect this winter to continue being mild with maybe one more cold snap, then we'll be in to summer.
Science is what we have learned about how not to fool ourselves about the way the world is.
Josh Cryer wrote:We were experiencing unusually warm weather here after that cold snap. Lasted two weeks and we're only now beginning to get back to averages. I expect this winter to continue being mild with maybe one more cold snap, then we'll be in to summer.
Piers Corbyn says a very deep cold snap towards the end of Jan and lasting to the end of winter (mid-March IIRC). We shall see.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.
Piers Corbyn is a modern day sooth sayer (you yourself say you can't predict chaotic systems but you go by Corbyn's claims). Jan is the hottest Jan on satellite records. I suspect since the AO is negative we may have one more cold snap, but that'll be it.
Just intuition, no making claims about models or predictive abilities.
Science is what we have learned about how not to fool ourselves about the way the world is.
Josh Cryer wrote:Piers Corbyn is a modern day sooth sayer (you yourself say you can't predict chaotic systems but you go by Corbyn's claims). Jan is the hottest Jan on satellite records. I suspect since the AO is negative we may have one more cold snap, but that'll be it.
Just intuition, no making claims about models or predictive abilities.
I think his predictions are at most 6 months ahead. His most accurate work is a month or two ahead.
People subscribe to his service. If he doesn't satisfy he goes out of business.
BTW the BBC is considering no longer paying the Met Office. Maybe they will go out of business.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.
People still buy horoscopes and almanacs. In the UK astrology and homeopathy are particularly big. Dawkin's did a documentary on this called "The Enemies of Reason."
Science is what we have learned about how not to fool ourselves about the way the world is.
Beside the point, but fyi there was a recent article showing evidence for something real going on with "homeopathy". And Dawkin's a raging, foaming at the mouth atheist. Reason is agnosticism, not blind atheism.
Last edited by Betruger on Thu Jan 21, 2010 12:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I can't find it anywhere in my feeds and can't recall any clues to where I read it. It wasn't a crackpot article or journal. It didn't say homeopathy worked. It did say something was amiss with the assertion that nothing was going on in "homeopathic" mechanics. I specifically remember noting the report because the method was legit. So this one can go in the 'unresolved/inconclusive' bin along with CF.
