AGW Supporters always ignore this question

[MSimon]

The soldiers on the ground and their commanders were amazing professionals. Unfortunately the priorities and goals sent to them might as well have come from a magic 8-ball.

Military maxim. No plan survives contact with the enemy.

You want to read about a totally fubared American operation in history?

Read this:

Guadalcanal: The Definitive Account of the Landmark Battle

I'm reading it for the second time in three months.

1. Bad planning
2. Bad execution
3. Political echelon in America screwed
4. Allies not totally on board
5. Most commanders not up to the task

etc. etc. etc.

By Guadalcanal standards Iraq was not so bad.

What I see in some comments here is a romantic view of war - how perfection can be achieved. It never works that way. Winners are the ones making the fewest mistakes. Because no commander is without defects. Not ours. Not theirs.

And what was the Japanese intention: not to win battles, but to cause so much pain that Americans lost the will to continue. Sound familiar?

[Diogenes]

What makes the Oil Ministry different? Contracts and obligations with other countries, evidence as to where the oil dollars went (to aid in recovery), Infrastructure inventories, detailed records on capacities and capabilities. Stuff you need to track down perps and track the wealth.

Seems like the Foreign Ministry would've been a good place to track down perps too, it was unguarded. Facilities from Iraq's nuclear program were left unguarded. Long enough that looters, insurgents or other agents, we really don't know, were able to clean them out using fork lifts and semi trailers for pity sake.

I don't think anyone expected the level of looting the Iraqis engaged in. Just one more thing that they weren't ready for. Once they realized it, they had to throw together ad hoc schemes to protect what they thought was most valuable.

I am thoroughly approving that Bush's removing Saddam was still a huge improvement over Clinton's policy. That doesn't free the Bush admin from their complete failures in post war planning. Surely to heavens the commander and chief should've at least taken the time to understand the divide between Sunni and Shia within Iraq, apparently even that bar was too high. Even ignorant of that, surely one must have known that giving the administration of the post-war country over to someone with no experience in the country and only two weeks notice was a bad plan. It still happened. There is just no defending that level of folly.

Someone pointed out earlier in the thread that Bush accidentally did something right in taking out Saddam, but demonstrated ineptitude in the aftermath. I pretty much agree with that assessment. The only reason he got it right on Saddam was because he listened to others. The only reason he finally got it right on the aftermath, (the troop surge) is because he FINALLY listened to others.
When he follows his own advice he does dumb things. (Education, Spending, Homeland Security, etc.)

Before he decided to screw with Iraq, he should have had a better understanding of what he was doing. Like you said, his lack of knowledge was astonishing.

The soldiers on the ground and their commanders were amazing professionals. Unfortunately the priorities and goals sent to them might as well have come from a magic 8-ball.

In some cases, yes. The Aftermath was a series of screw ups by the civilian (and high level military) leadership.

[alexjrgreen]

The peace process with Israel wasn't going anywhere due to the fact that one side is completely nuts.

Generations of humiliation and state-sponsored killing can do that to people.

This is true. You'd think the Palestinians would stop selecting such people to represent them.

Generations of reading the Koran (i.e. - kill the Jews) is what did it.

Both of you assume that I was talking about the Palestinians...

Hamas Charter, article 7, (Palestine Center, Aug 9, 2003): “The prophet, prayer and peace be upon him, said: The time will not come until Muslims will fight the Jews (and kill them); until the Jews hide behind rocks and trees, which will cry: O Muslim! there is a Jew hiding behind me, come on and kill him!"

For the record, this isn't from the Koran - it's from the Hadith collected by Bukhari (52:177).

[IntLibber]

seedload,

I've sent your stuff to Anthony Watts. You might want to consider how you would write it up for publication.

If any thing comes of it I will be in touch.

Simon

Actually, I sent the same stuff to a prominent climate scientist/skeptic. He thinks that I am just seeing the cooling period in the data.

what you have done is simply to quantify the lack of significant warming between the 1940's and the 1960's. This has traditionally been blamed on aerosol pollution before the clean air act was put into effect. I suspect that the aerosol pollution from nuclear weapons tests was very small when compared to that from industry.

The response makes me wonder whether he looked at it too deeply. I don't think he got that the acceleration of temperature change was actually increasing during this period.

As for a writeup, I am not sure this is ready for prime time. I am not that statistically savy. This depends a lot on the fitting algorithm used because it is the fitted data that shows that trend. I just called lowess() in R which I don't know anything about but seems to be commonly used. I really need someone who is more savy in these matters to help out.

regards

I would say that the meteorologist was somewhat right. The change in acceleration of T between 1940 and 1965 IMHO reflected a broad based shift from most people heating their homes in home based coal furnaces, which could be very dirty and inefficient, to cleaner and more efficient central electrical power generation, culminating in requirements with the clean air act to install scrubbers on smokestacks.

back before 1950 and particularly earlier in the century, there were significant problems with communities air quality when inversions set in over valley towns, trapping coal smoke emissions and leading to serious respiratory problems for many people, even mass deaths.

BTW, what size is your smoothing filter? how many years?

[seedload]

Or we say that a military as large as ours is not necessary and can then pay off the entire national debt in 3 years and reduce taxes by 50% in the 4th year.

Your numbers are wrong. Even in a time of war, we are only spending about 600 billion on defense. Without the war it would be half of that. Divide 12 Trillion by 600 billion. How did you get three years? Where did you come up with the figure of three years?

BTW, the interest on the dept is about equivelent to our defense budget. So, eliminate defense and we can pay the interest with it. Need to make a dent in the principle still.

You don't have a grip on HOW BAD IT ACTUALLY IS right now. We are in a lot of trouble. We are going bankrupt. 200K of dept per tax paying family. That is the scope of the national dept!

Quadrupling the deficit in a year is terrible given the above. Adding trillions in health care cost is insane given the above. Cripling ourselves with self imposed economical climate handicaps is insane. And the idea of just not having a military is ridiculous, especially given the above, because we will probably need it to fight off everyone when we default on all of our loans.

[MSimon]

How about the America Civil war?

At the start both sides thought it would be resolved in short order. Most guesses at the start were for a 3 month war.

===

Bush got the Grand Strategy right. He eventually got the strategy right. About as much as you can expect from a COMINCH.

===

Arm chair Generals are always superior to real Generals. They don't have to worry about messy things like raising an army, putting it in the field, and keeping it supplied.

[Diogenes]

Water vapor is the only significant green house gas, and it drives the whole system. Since water vapor is a negative feedback effect, it doesn't much matter about C02 or Methane.

Methane really does cause warming - a previous breakdown of the permafrost and the methane clathrates in the ocean raised global temperatures by 8C for about 500 years.

And just in case you think that's unlikely:

Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming

Methane release 'looks stronger'

I won't dispute that Methane is a positive feedback. I simply point out that it's effects are completely swamped by the far more massive quantities of water vapor which is a negative feedback effect.

My argument has always been simple. The Spectrographic absorption of water indicates it OUGHT to be a positive feedback mechanism.








The fact that we exist proves that it cannot be.

[MSimon]

The change in acceleration of T between 1940 and 1965 IMHO reflected a broad based shift from most people heating their homes in home based coal furnaces, which could be very dirty and inefficient,

Don't leave out the switch from coal to natural gas. I was the furnace tender for my house in 1950 at age 5. Was I ever glad when we got an automatic feed augur. Better yet when we got a natural gas furnace.

[MSimon]

For the record, this isn't from the Koran - it's from the Hadith collected by Bukhari (52:177)

Makes no essential difference. It is Holy Writ.

[TallDave]

As I understand it, Hitler is particularly popular in Iran. While Arabs are technically semetic, close cousins of the Jews, Persians are predominantly Aryan. Some people in northern India, also Aryan, also supposedly have the same fascination.

Mein Kampf sells briskly in most Mideast capitals.

The Baathists were deliberately modelled after the Reich. Arab nationalist socialism has been the dominant paradigm since around 1930.

The intellectual stagnation of the area cannot be overstated. I remember reading around 2005 that Egypt was producing 100 new books a year while Israel produced 10,000.

[Diogenes]

The peace process with Israel wasn't going anywhere due to the fact that one side is completely nuts.

Generations of humiliation and state-sponsored killing can do that to people.

This is true. You'd think the Palestinians would stop selecting such people to represent them.

Generations of reading the Koran (i.e. - kill the Jews) is what did it.

Both of you assume that I was talking about the Palestinians...

I didn't specify either side, but I will now. I am referring to the Palestinians. While it is not one of the issues that I make a point to keep up with, my knowledge of the Israeli/Palestinian struggle is the result of listening to the news reports for many decades, and reading about it on the internet for the last 20 years. The Palestinians seem to have a knack for doing foolish things. I've heard it said that they "never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity."
Take for example, the cause of this latest intifada, going on what ? 10 years? Provoked because Ariel Sharon went to the temple mount?

Why is that worth revving up so much violence? Things were pretty peaceful before that, there was very nearly a peace agreement between Ehud Barak and Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat. The Trilateral agreement was probably the sweetest deal that was ever going to be forth coming. A lot of people think Yasser used the Sharon visit to provoke unrest so that he could get an even sweeter deal, but whatever the case, it was simply a dumb move to start violence at that point. I don't think the Israelis will ever get another prime minister willing to give away more than Ehud Barak. Certainly not Netanyahu.

Even now, they can't keep their Fatah and Hamas sections from fighting each other. It would be comical if it weren't so tragic.

[MSimon]

Provoked because Ariel Sharon went to the temple mount?

Actually it was planned well before his visit. And the PA had given Sharon permission to visit the Temple Mount. So the permission for his visit may have been their way of prepping the battlefield.

What you "know" is essentially propaganda. Not your fault. Of course the Israelis are not immune to prepping the battlefield (public opinion).

The essence is that the PA government gets a LOT of cash for continuing the "struggle". The people get intolerable living conditions mixed with Israeli gunfire and bombs.

I read in 2001 (IIRC) that the PA and Israeli economies were integrating - good for the people - bad for the leaders. So what war tactic was used by the PA? Suicide bombers. Thus making it near impossible for Palestinians to work in Israel or Jews to run businesses in PA areas. Look at what happened to the greenhouses in Gaza Bill Gates bought for the Palestinians. Why destroy an economic tool? Because economic advancement is not in the interest of the PA leaders.

[Diogenes]

How about the America Civil war?

At the start both sides thought it would be resolved in short order. Most guesses at the start were for a 3 month war.

===

Bush got the Grand Strategy right. He eventually got the strategy right. About as much as you can expect from a COMINCH.

===

Arm chair Generals are always superior to real Generals. They don't have to worry about messy things like raising an army, putting it in the field, and keeping it supplied.

I find the Civil war irritating. It's not our finest point in history. Lincoln sent the army into Maryland to arrest the state legislators to prevent them from voting on secession. (Crime before the fact?) He manipulated the events to provoke the war, then manipulated public opinion to create the support for it. He freed slaves where he couldn't, and didn't free slaves where he could. He said he wouldn't free ANY of them if that's what it took to preserve the Union. He suspended Habeas Corpus, and impressed foreigners off the boat with impressment squads to force them to fight against the south. He did all sorts of things that just weren't right, and as near as I can determine, the entire motivation for the whole mess was Egos on both sides. 600,000 people killed in a pissing contest.

We are STILL suffering the fallout from the Civil war. It was ugly, like the French revolution.

[MSimon]

How about the America Civil war?

At the start both sides thought it would be resolved in short order. Most guesses at the start were for a 3 month war.

===

Bush got the Grand Strategy right. He eventually got the strategy right. About as much as you can expect from a COMINCH.

===

Arm chair Generals are always superior to real Generals. They don't have to worry about messy things like raising an army, putting it in the field, and keeping it supplied.

I find the Civil war irritating. It's not our finest point in history. Lincoln sent the army into Maryland to arrest the state legislators to prevent them from voting on secession. (Crime before the fact?) He manipulated the events to provoke the war, then manipulated public opinion to create the support for it. He freed slaves where he couldn't, and didn't free slaves where he could. He said he wouldn't free ANY of them if that's what it took to preserve the Union. He suspended Habeas Corpus, and impressed foreigners off the boat with impressment squads to force them to fight against the south. He did all sorts of things that just weren't right, and as near as I can determine, the entire motivation for the whole mess was Egos on both sides. 600,000 people killed in a pissing contest.

We are STILL suffering the fallout from the Civil war. It was ugly, like the French revolution.

But you gotta admit we got some great movies out of it. And a few despicable ones. (D.W. Griffiths).

And how about the post war politics? The North practiced personal intolerance while the South practiced political intolerance. We are only now bringing the better halves of that equation together.

[Diogenes]

How about the America Civil war?

At the start both sides thought it would be resolved in short order. Most guesses at the start were for a 3 month war.

===

Bush got the Grand Strategy right. He eventually got the strategy right. About as much as you can expect from a COMINCH.

===

Arm chair Generals are always superior to real Generals. They don't have to worry about messy things like raising an army, putting it in the field, and keeping it supplied.

I find the Civil war irritating. It's not our finest point in history. Lincoln sent the army into Maryland to arrest the state legislators to prevent them from voting on secession. (Crime before the fact?) He manipulated the events to provoke the war, then manipulated public opinion to create the support for it. He freed slaves where he couldn't, and didn't free slaves where he could. He said he wouldn't free ANY of them if that's what it took to preserve the Union. He suspended Habeas Corpus, and impressed foreigners off the boat with impressment squads to force them to fight against the south. He did all sorts of things that just weren't right, and as near as I can determine, the entire motivation for the whole mess was Egos on both sides. 600,000 people killed in a pissing contest.

We are STILL suffering the fallout from the Civil war. It was ugly, like the French revolution.

But you gotta admit we got some great movies out of it. And a few despicable ones. (D.W. Griffiths).

And how about the post war politics? The North practiced personal intolerance while the South practiced political intolerance. We are only now bringing the better halves of that equation together.

"The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly" was one of the Awesomist movies ever made! "The General" (Buster Keaton) was one of the funniest comedies i've ever seen. Yeah, at least there were some good movies to come out of it. H3ll, there were other good things to come out of it too, but it breaks my heart to think that all the issues would have been resolved eventually by technology and the war could have been avoided altogether.

The Spanish/American War, and World War I should have been avoided too.