Eat that GW believers!

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CherryPick
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Post by CherryPick »

Josh Cryer wrote: All, last reply for awhile, I'm bored of this circular argumentation. Climate scientists aren't wobbly.
It might help if you check the basics first. The following one might be easy enough:

http://climateprediction.net/content/modelling-climate
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CherryPick
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Computer Science, Physics, Applied Mathematics

TDPerk
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Post by TDPerk »

"No it hasn't, the vast majority of early measurements are baselined at zero."

Oh BTW. How do they justify their picking any particular temperature as normal?
molon labe
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Jccarlton
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Post by Jccarlton »

[quote="Josh Cryer"]Jccarlton, oh, part of my previous response to MSimon was intended for you, sorry. About Spencer, please don't pretend that you don't get similar chastisement on "warmists" in WUWT comments. I do believe it was you who attempted to discredit several climate scientists here.[quote]

I did not attempt to discredit the climate cabal. They have done that to themselves. The Climategate emails and code only made something that most of us paying any attention to the cabal and it's activities clear as glass and obvious rather than subject to interpretation. As to the Roy Spencer link you posted here's the link again:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar ... y-lessons/

and here's what raypierre said in the comments:
[Response: That's a question for psychologists. I wish I knew the answer. I doubt that he, or Dick Lindzen for that matter, are in it for the money, so that takes out the easiest of motives. I think it's probably a matter of ideological blinders. The perceived implications of global warming being a real problem are so dissonant with some other value system that it imposes some kind of filter on the interpretation of objective reality. Anything I say would be just guessing, though. Fortunately, this problem doesn't seem to plague too many scientists. --raypierre]

I challenge you to find and post anything like this from Mr. Watts or any of the posters' comments from WUWT or Climate Audit. The fact seems to be that the ones wearing the idealogical blinders are the Climate Cabal and the Pols they are stooging for.

TallDave
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Post by TallDave »

A station is on a hot roof. It is moved to a grassy field a few hundred meters away. That is not going to work for you? Probably not.
It's not a reason to average in temperatures more than a thousand miles away. That just creates more error. It's like saying "OK, you've broken your leg, so let's break your arm too to even things out."
What you (and the whole of denialist circles) are trying to have me believe is that all scientists are doing the wobble trick on climate models, on climate data, on so many distinct aspects of AGW evidence.
This is like asking why Toyota, Ford, GM, and Chrysler all coincidentally sell cars. Selling AGW is what these people do; most don't even make a pretense of being objective about it. Give skeptics tens of millions in government grants and they could easily come up with models that show future cooling -- but a nonproblem doesn't sell, and AGWers go to some lengths to prevent any such thing from happening.
If GISS was wobbling the data, then it would be so obvious anyone who knew how to use Excel could prove it.
Darwin Zero.
Then they would have to have a scientific explination for it that removes human behavior from the equation.
No they wouldn't. "We don't know" is perfectly plausible, and often the right answer. AGW uses faulty "not x, therefore y" logic (that's actually what "forcing" means: they can't explain it so they blame it on CO2 -- and they don't even agree on that, some say it's half methane).
Ha, the physics aren't known well enough to model even things like the monsoons.
...
Climate prediction is not the same as weather prediction.
Monsoons aren't weather. They're a predictable climatic phenomenon that is difficult to model.
You are lying. I posted the link for MSimon, it is there. Google NCDC, use a .gov or .edu domian and you can get it all for free. All of it. Every morsel
Again, that's GISS, not GHCN. GISS doesn't use GHCN raw data. If we had GHCN, we wouldn't need to speculate what happened at Darwin Zero.
In America we practice creationism and pundent worship.
It's called freedom of religion, the reason we also managed to avoid putting Jews in ovens. People who practice science, otoh, are held to a scientific standard, unlike Europe. I'm not sure what a "pundent" is.
Are we really supposed to believe the TOD trend is so much stronger than the UHI trend that the net adjustment is positive?
...
Uh, no. If you adjusted the PM boxes downward and left the AM boxes alone the trend still exists.
Not the trend, the adjustments. The adjustments have a warming trend.
That's why they do the homoginzation process, to tweak out obvious discrepencies. Got a better idea?
Yes, obviously they should do a detailed analysis of what TOD differences look like at each site. Homogenization is just smearing data around. Short of that -- gigantic error bars, because no one really knows what each TOD adjustment should look like.
Oh right, throw out the data, because you're such a scientifically inclined person
That's something only you've been stupid enough to suggest. I would settle for honesty.
Sure. But current observed environmental changes suggests that they don't (ice mass loss).
There isn't any ice mass loss since the 1970s. Nor would it make sense to extrapolate a calamitous future trend from them, nor a causative effect from CO2.
RC is explicitly advocating AGW, on the taxpayer's dime.
They may use their free time however they wish.
Not during working hours, which is when lots of Gavin's post are put up.
I am sure that denialists have attempted to get them in trouble though.
I'm sure the alarmists don't care about wasting taxpayer dollars. You think Hansen is going to yell at Gavin for promoting AGW during working hours? Hahahahaha! That's a good one. It's just another sign of how corrupted the "science" has become.
You're in far too deep to think critically about this issue.
Oh, the irony. You think Gavin or Hansen or Jones or Mann or Briffa are thinking critically?
This won't happen. I wish you could get it through your thick skull that it can't happen. India / China won't work it, so the OECD won't dare do it. Simple politics. You base your whole understanding of the issue on this scary thing.
If you could think logically, you would realize the obvious contradiction in simultaneously arguing such solutions are necessary and complaining that opponents are focusing on the costs of said solutions even though they're unlikely to be implemented (precisely because most people believe they are unnecessary).

Luzr
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Post by Luzr »

TallDave wrote:This is like asking why Toyota, Ford, GM, and Chrysler all coincidentally sell cars. Selling AGW is what these people do; most don't even make a pretense of being objective about it. Give skeptics tens of millions in government grants and they could easily come up with models that show future cooling -- but a nonproblem doesn't sell, and AGWers go to some lengths to prevent any such thing from happening.
Factual note: Cooling would be a much bigger problem....

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

That's why they do the homoginzation process, to tweak out obvious discrepencies.
That has happened in science more than once. And yet the discrepancies are often where the interesting things happen in science.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

Then they would have to have a scientific explination for it that removes human behavior from the equation.
The UN remit is not to find out the causes of global warming. It is to find the human cause. It is in their charter.
The denalists grasp to PDO, to solar variation, and even to clouds and cosmic rays. None of these alternate theories stand up to scrutiny. Think of better ones.
I like sceptics better. Because scepticism is the essence of science.

I think your error is to assume that there is one cause. Suppose there are six? Or twenty? Each contributing a little.

I will say this about that. The CO2 science was largely developed between 1980 and 2000 when the PDO/AMO was unknown. (not found until 1997). I believe that CO2 was aliased for those ocean oscillations. Thus heating from the positive PDO etc. was aliased for CO2.

What will throw the whole thing into reverse is a situation where CO2 is rising and yet global temps are falling. If that happens (IMO it is happening) the whole house of cards will collapse. If the cooling goes on until 2055 or 2060 (as the Russians predict) I predict we will see politicized science routinely derided as "Global Warming". It will become an epithet. We already see the seeds of that. Some people are already doing it. When they talk about snowfall they routinely say "We got six inches of Global Warming last night." When "Global Warming" is the punch line of a joke it is over.

Thank the Maker for the internet. We will have names and dates. But best of all we will have research material for the scads of books that will be written about how government money in collusion with a corrupt press (Andy Revkin et. al.) corrupted science. It is not the first time. Lysenko in Russia is a good example. Funny thing is in some species for some effects Lysenko was correct.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

The equations are tweaked, within reasonable boundaries, so that the model does as well as possible at producing past and current climates (compared to archived observations).
http://climateprediction.net/content/modelling-climate

The deal is you don't have to tweak models where the data is good.

There are not fifteen models for electric motors. There are not even two. There is one.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

Jccarlton
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Post by Jccarlton »

It doesn't help that the climate cabal wants to sue everybody for breathing:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 57422.html
quote:

But global warming is, well, global: It doesn't matter whether ubiquitous CO2 emissions come from American Electric Power or Exxon—or China. "There is no logical reason to draw the line at 30 defendants as opposed to 150, or 500, or even 10,000 defendants," says David Rivkin, an attorney at Baker Hostetler and a contributor to our pages, in an amicus brief in the Katrina case. "These plaintiffs—and any others alleging injury by climatic phenomena—would have standing to assert a damages claim against virtually every entity and individual on the planet, since each 'contributes' to global concentrations of carbon dioxide."

In other words, the courts would become a venue for a carbon war of all against all. Not only might businesses sue to shackle their competitors—could we sue the New York Times for deforestation?—but judges would decide the remedies against specific defendants. In practice this would mean ad hoc command-and-control regulation against any industries that happen to catch the green lobby's eye.

Carbon litigation without legislation is one more way to harm the economy, and the rule of law. We hope the Fifth Circuit will have the good sense to deflect this damaging legal theory before it crash-lands at the Supreme Court.


More from the NYT:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/22/scien ... arbon.html

States Can Sue Utilities Over Emissions

By MATTHEW L. WALD
Published: September 21, 2009

A two-judge panel of a federal appeals court has ruled that big power companies can be sued by states and land trusts for emitting carbon dioxide. The decision, issued Monday, overturns a 2005 District Court decision that the question was political, not judicial.

A panel of the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, in New York, ruled that eight states — California, Connecticut, Iowa, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont and Wisconsin — as well as New York City and three land trusts could proceed with a suit against American Electric Power, Southern Corporation, the Tennessee Valley Authority, Xcel Energy and Cinergy Corporation, all large coal-burning utilities.

The case, brought in 2004, said the defendants were creating a “public nuisance” and sought reductions in emissions that scientists say are changing the climate. The states cited studies from the United Nations and the National Academy of Sciences that predicted damage and said in fact that their environments had already been damaged. The land trusts said that an increase in sea level would inundate their properties, among other problems.

The power companies said that the federal courts had never recognized an argument in common law that greenhouse gas emissions contribute to global warming, and that if action were to be taken, Congress would have to do it.

Jccarlton
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Post by Jccarlton »


Jccarlton
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Post by Jccarlton »

The graph that the climate cabal don't want us to see:
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/201 ... ary_2.html

Josh Cryer
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Post by Josh Cryer »

MSimon,
What will throw the whole thing into reverse is a situation where CO2 is rising and yet global temps are falling. If that happens (IMO it is happening) the whole house of cards will collapse.
What would you say to a very very hot 2010 (including a very warm or mild winter)?

The very idea that all climatologists are manipulating the data is so inconceivable to me that if it turns out to be true (and the verdict will come out either way; though those politicizing it and ranting about it on blogs, internet forums, and on pundit filled TV will be forgotten), ALL SCIENCE will have to be looked at, analyzed, and then ultimately thrown out. (Since, if funding is the primary driver, then all science in our capitalist society must therefore be broken; I don't think it is, of course, though I do think it would be better if it existed openly, transparently, and without monetary motives.)

I have never heard this suggestion before except from those who believe in luddism and who think that science is the great satan.

It seems though here with our engineers that, well, science is right only when we agree with it (see: Polywell).
Science is what we have learned about how not to fool ourselves about the way the world is.

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

What would you say to a very very hot 2010 (including a very warm or mild winter)?
Bring it on. Too many records for cold falling. It is killing a lot of people.

England has so far had a 100 year cold snap. Europe is having record cold. All but the West Coast of the USA is breaking cold records.

But I'm willing to wait a few years to see if weather turns into climate.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

ALL SCIENCE will have to be looked at, analyzed, and then ultimately thrown out.
No. The data, methods, and results just have to be verified.

And who knows, Lindzen might be right.

It will increase scepticism a lot. But scepticism is the heart of science so that is all to the good.

In science as in reporting: if your mother says she loves you - check it out.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

Just because I'm a fanboy doesn't mean I've locked my scepticism in a closet.

My position always was: something interesting may be happening. I'd like to see some research done. Let the results speak for themselves.

I will admit that from time to time I have been prone to irrational exuberance. But scepticism is at the core of my being. So I always and in the main come back to that.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

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