Eat that GW believers!

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TallDave
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Post by TallDave »

jmc wrote:while the standards of the NOAA database are outrageusly below par, this fact still doesn't falsify global warming.

http://scienceblogs.com/illconsidered/2 ... island.php
Uh huh.
What's more, NASA GISS takes explicit steps in their analysis to remove any such spurious signal by normalizing urban station data trends to the surrounding rural stations.
Really? Oh, well good then. Let's see how they're doing that... oh wait, we can't because GISS doesn't release their "correction" algorithms.

So basically this boils down to trusting the word of a government agency run by a guy who says that coal trains are the equivalent of Auschwitz and that skeptics of his claims should be tried for war crimes.

This could also be stated as "we include any such spurious data trends by normalizing surrounding rural stations to them."

Anyways, AGW doesn't need to be falsified, people just need to stop claiming it's been undeniably proven and has absolutely certain horrifying consequences.

IntLibber
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Post by IntLibber »

TallDave wrote:
jmc wrote:while the standards of the NOAA database are outrageusly below par, this fact still doesn't falsify global warming.

http://scienceblogs.com/illconsidered/2 ... island.php
Uh huh.
What's more, NASA GISS takes explicit steps in their analysis to remove any such spurious signal by normalizing urban station data trends to the surrounding rural stations.
Really? Oh, well good then. Let's see how they're doing that... oh wait, we can't because GISS doesn't release their "correction" algorithms.

So basically this boils down to trusting the word of a government agency run by a guy who says that coal trains are the equivalent of Auschwitz and that skeptics of his claims should be tried for war crimes.

This could also be stated as "we include any such spurious data trends by normalizing surrounding rural stations to them."

Anyways, AGW doesn't need to be falsified, people just need to stop claiming it's been undeniably proven and has absolutely certain horrifying consequences.
If you look at the raw vs processed data, you see that they do NOT correct for UHI, in fact they correct the OTHER way, making modern temperatures hotter than the raw data and early 20th century temperatures colder than the raw data, to create a fake hockey stick. They wont release all the raw data, but you can verify this for yourself by going to your local weather station that contributes to GHCN, get its raw data, then see what NOAA's processed output says that station looks like.

Josh Cryer
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Post by Josh Cryer »

TallDave,
What proof is there the code was commented out in publication?
The publication graph does not in any way whatsoever resemble that code result which is heavily skewed? It's funny, the denialists used the code which was commented out and falsified any innuendo that might have existed about the code. Gavin said it was commented out (and in the Briffa code it is commented out), and it most certainly was! Amazing, a scientist telling the truth, we know they're evil liars and all.
Why doesn't the raw data match the massaged numbers?
The same reason raw microwave data of sea ice melt doesn't tell you shit about sea ice melt. You can, of course, read the paper that explains the methodology, or you can just go with the NASA satellite that has raw gravity data, and dismiss the microwave data which requires what you would call "fudging" the results because a scientist spent hard time looking at the physical nature of the data, and determined a nifty way to derive sea ice melt from the data.

Just stick with the satellite specialized for such a task, I say, since you are clearly incapable of deriving data from other data.
That selection is NOT ARBITARY.
That's complete disinformation. He took the *raw* data and compared it with the "fudged" data. It is clear that no bias is introduced in the "fudged" data. Hint: what you consider "fudged" data is really data which has been analyzed scientifically and only adjusted using known principles. This makes the data *better* and *more useful*.

It is a random sample comparison.
Guess which are more likely to be 100 years or longer, those in rural areas or urban/suburban? Guess which is more likely to have growing heat island effects?
It has already been established that there is no discrepancy because the methodology takes into account these outside variables that cannot be accounted for in raw data. Would you have scientists throw out data because it is imperfect? If that were the case then no data would be usable! Watch some Feynman lectures that touch on the scientific process.

I prefer scientists use all data that they can, even if it means, using known scientific principles, making the data better by tweaking it to more closely represent reality.
Then they go on to do something even more ridiculous: they claim the 70 good stations SS found have almost exactly the same trend as the rest -- except they don't use the raw data, so the bad stations are already averaged in!
Average in? Where in their quality control step is the data "averaged in"?

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/res ... .html#QUAL

They adjust for time of day when different devices changed their measuring time.

They adjust for thermometer changes.

They adjust for station moves.

They estimate for missing data.

They adjust for, and account for, urban warming.

All adjustments are based on papers which suggest to do these adjustments, as a way to improve the data. Given that you don't like improved data, then you can go with the data that ignores the UHI effect.
Let's see how they're doing that... oh wait, we can't because GISS doesn't release their "correction" algorithms.
Now I don't believe that you are genuinely involved in discussion here. You are just regurgitating the same stuff you've read on other sites. Please, think about the scientific process. If you are anti-science or you think it is corrupted, I cannot help you with that. But I believe in the process for what it's worth.

Anyway, you can find all the information you ever wanted here: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

The algorithms are certainly released and the papers back them up. If you disagree with their methodology, then please, write a paper and tell them to knock it off because somehow it's biasing the data.
Science is what we have learned about how not to fool ourselves about the way the world is.

Josh Cryer
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Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2008 7:19 am

Post by Josh Cryer »

IntLibber wrote:If you look at the raw vs processed data, you see that they do NOT correct for UHI, in fact they correct the OTHER way, making modern temperatures hotter than the raw data and early 20th century temperatures colder than the raw data, to create a fake hockey stick.
No, you're cherrypicking a graph out of context of the language.

Read: Adjustments to account for warming due to the effects of urbanization (purple line) cooled the time series an average of 0.1F throughout the period of record.

The "urban" graph from the NOAA website (which I linked above) includes adjustments for station moves. Clearly the temperatures are lower when UHI is included, if you look at the full comparison graph!

Disinformation all around.
Science is what we have learned about how not to fool ourselves about the way the world is.

TDPerk
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Post by TDPerk »

"Disinformation all around."

Well since the warmist's case is disinformation, there's nothing to it, is there.

No need for one penny of additional tax or government intervention to prevent the global warming or climate change which mankind is not in fact causing by putting CO2 into the atmosphere.
molon labe
montani semper liberi
para fides paternae patria

bcglorf
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Post by bcglorf »

Josh Cryer wrote:
IntLibber wrote:If you look at the raw vs processed data, you see that they do NOT correct for UHI, in fact they correct the OTHER way, making modern temperatures hotter than the raw data and early 20th century temperatures colder than the raw data, to create a fake hockey stick.
No, you're cherrypicking a graph out of context of the language.

Read: Adjustments to account for warming due to the effects of urbanization (purple line) cooled the time series an average of 0.1F throughout the period of record.

The "urban" graph from the NOAA website (which I linked above) includes adjustments for station moves. Clearly the temperatures are lower when UHI is included, if you look at the full comparison graph!

Disinformation all around.
And here's a graph of the effects of USHCN's 'corrections' to the raw temperature data, directly from the NOAA's website. Seems to me the methodology for adjusting the raw data is accounting for much of the 'instrumental' warming as well.
Image

The GISS own corrections are documented the same, though I can't find the link at the moment if you hit their site it is their for the public. They show that their temperature 'adjustments' move amount for a warming of 0.3C compared to only 0.15C within the raw data before adjustments.

Call me crazy, but I have a problem accepting that you can apply 'corrections' to the raw data that change it by more than the error bars placed on the final result.

Jccarlton
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Location: Southern Ct

Post by Jccarlton »

Josh Cryer wrote:Take a random sample of all measurements: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar ... ssessment/

Lots of smoke: http://www.gilestro.tk/2009/lots-of-smo ... lsify-data

Remember the whole "weather stations are suspect" nonsense? They even made a website where people could go take pictures of weather stations, in order to "discredit" the science, of course we know the science is still sound: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/about/response-v2.pdf
I'm sorry, but I do not think that you can use Realclimate for and objective opinion. First of all the editor of relaclimate Gavin Schmidt is in climategate up to his eyeballs. Second realclimate was created by Fenton Communications, a well known eco scare scammer. Look up Alar to see what I mean. Like we are discovering all throughout climatology, realclimate's science has been tainted by the poison of Porgressive advocacy and cannot be trusted. Unfortunately, as of right now none of the places that we trusted to have correct and untainted data have been untainted by the AGW cabal. As of right now I think that anything that does not come from a known skeptic is more than likely going to be false data. Until a housecleaning is done I don't see how any policies or decisions could possibly be made.
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-shepp ... s-sheppard
Really Long Climate Depot url

The climate cabal had created so much FUD that the damage is going to be almost impossible to fix. The first step is to admit the damage in the first place.

seedload
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Post by seedload »

Josh Cryer wrote: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/res ... .html#QUAL

They adjust for time of day when different devices changed their measuring time.

They adjust for thermometer changes.

They adjust for station moves.

They estimate for missing data.

They adjust for, and account for, urban warming.

All adjustments are based on papers which suggest to do these adjustments, as a way to improve the data. Given that you don't like improved data, then you can go with the data that ignores the UHI effect.
... and in the end they got adjustments that look more like the curve of CO2 rise than the raw data does. 0.5 degrees of adjustment that looks just like the CO2 curve. Amazing coincidence. Heck, this is there own picture linked from their web site. Most of that CO2 like curve is driven by the shape of the TOA adjustments. Why Time of Observation adjustments should coincidently match the shape of CO2 over 60 years or so is beyond me. BTW, when you do a correlation of adjusted temperature data to CO2 levels, you get a very tight match, not because there is good correlation between temperature and CO2 but because the adjustment signal comes out. Anyway, I guess that paper by Karl et al. back in 1986 explains everything. I feel so much better now.

Image

FYI, the UHI adjustment is in purple below. 0.1 degree taken away which is obliterated and then some by the Application of the Station History Adjustment Procedure in yellow, whatever that is.

Image

So, the UHI effect adjustment is 0.1 degrees down in the data. The other adjustments wipe it out by increasing temperatures by 0.6 degrees. Go figure.

This video was pretty cool. Just a kid and his dad looking at the data in a unique way. Makes you wonder if the 0.1 of adjustment is enough, doesn't it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_G_-SdA ... r_embedded

You should watch it. I know Gavin isn't in it. But the kid is pretty bright.

Josh Cryer
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Post by Josh Cryer »

bcglorf wrote:Call me crazy, but I have a problem accepting that you can apply 'corrections' to the raw data that change it by more than the error bars placed on the final result.
C'mon, I see nothing unreasonable with their adjustments. The data was undoubtedly terrible. So throw it all out, throw out *all* data that uses adjustments, use UAH raw data. You can even throw out their stratospheric cooling cooling adjustments (again, using sound scientific principles based on the microwave raw data).

Even if you use the raw data, from the 80s onward, there is a distinct warming trend. Period.

Fortunately for us the scientific process doesn't throw out usable data if at all possible, and it would be an incredible shame if it did, because some people disagreed with the adjustments (again, adjustments based on sound scientific principles, like, yaknow, a data set changing its measuring time from day to night, and accounting for it).
Science is what we have learned about how not to fool ourselves about the way the world is.

seedload
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Post by seedload »

Josh Cryer wrote:
bcglorf wrote:Call me crazy, but I have a problem accepting that you can apply 'corrections' to the raw data that change it by more than the error bars placed on the final result.
C'mon, I see nothing unreasonable with their adjustments. The data was undoubtedly terrible. So throw it all out, throw out *all* data that uses adjustments, use UAH raw data.
Wow. What a reasonable statement and an unreasonable response. The bold above is a great point.

Josh Cryer
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Post by Josh Cryer »

TDPerk wrote:No need for one penny of additional tax or government intervention to prevent the global warming or climate change which mankind is not in fact causing by putting CO2 into the atmosphere.
COP15 was a failure, China basically said "screw you" to everyone else, and even coerced EU *not* to cut emissions. You got nothing to worry about, those evil liberals aren't going to tax your CO2 pollution.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2 ... te-failure


seedload, I watched that video. It's quite good, I hope the father helps the kid learn how the UHI effect is accounted for in the datasets and doesn't just stop there.

Note that Time of Day isn't the biggest contributing factor here, it is partially because they moved the stations to airports, from rooftops to grassland. And because they changed their measuring thermometers (ie, more accurate measuring systems). If you believe that their methodology is incorrect, feel free to find a paper that refutes the papers listed in their references, as the basic adjustments are common sense.

Really, people say "NOAA data is just noise." Yeah, it really is, it's not good at all, but adjustements can be made that are reasonable and which bring the data out of the noise.
Science is what we have learned about how not to fool ourselves about the way the world is.

seedload
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Joined: Fri Feb 08, 2008 8:16 pm

Post by seedload »

Josh Cryer wrote:COP15 was a failure, China basically said "screw you" to everyone else, and even coerced EU *not* to cut emissions. You got nothing to worry about, those evil liberals aren't going to tax your CO2 pollution.
Congress still may. If not, the EPA has said it would.
Josh Cryer wrote:seedload, I watched that video. It's quite good, I hope the father helps the kid learn how the UHI effect is accounted for in the datasets and doesn't just stop there.
They are using the adjusted data.
Josh Cryer wrote:Note that Time of Day isn't the biggest contributing factor here,
It is to the shape.
Josh Cryer wrote:it is partially because they moved the stations to airports, from rooftops to grassland. And because they changed their measuring thermometers (ie, more accurate measuring systems).
Of course some of these adjustments are justified and make sense. Do you think I don't understand that if they move a station and get a step wise change in temperature that an adjustment can't be made? Do you think I don't understand what they claim to be doing?

It is the result of their adjustments that bothers me. Again, the resulting curve of THE ADJUSTMENTS matches CO2 emissions. That doesn't bother you as a little too coincidental?

Josh Cryer
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Post by Josh Cryer »

seedload wrote:Congress still may. If not, the EPA has said it would.
A total phaseout of coal is necessary to avert catastrophic climate change (if you believe the science). The EPAs most liberal, crazy, insane, estimates only reduce us to 14%, which would have happened anyway due to economic factors and subsidies (wind is profitable if the producers can get loan guarantees).

(The timeframe for those numbers, I believe, is 2030.)
They are using the adjusted data.
They are using raw data and comparing urban areas to rural.
It is to the shape.
The "yellow bit" that you couldn't get is actually temp measuring device changes.
Of course some of these adjustments are justified and make sense. Do you think I don't understand that if they move a station and get a step wise change in temperature that an adjustment can't be made? Do you think I don't understand what they claim to be doing?
You have a problem with their methodology, therefore it is clear that you don't understand it, because if you understood it you could either come up with a reason why their methodology should *not* result in following the CO2 curve, or you should be able to find an *error* in their methodology. Because of this you clearly, certainly, do not understand it to any extent that allows you to have a credible position on the adjustments.
It is the result of their adjustments that bothers me. Again, the resulting curve of THE ADJUSTMENTS matches CO2 emissions. That doesn't bother you as a little too coincidental?
Wait, I should be bothered that a gas that absorbs IR and is known in the field as a greenhouse gas, is actually measured to do what it is supposed to do? That should bother me? Really? I'd be freaking bothered if the results were not this way.
Science is what we have learned about how not to fool ourselves about the way the world is.

alexjrgreen
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Post by alexjrgreen »

Josh Cryer wrote:
seedload wrote:Congress still may. If not, the EPA has said it would.
A total phaseout of coal is necessary to avert catastrophic climate change (if you believe the science).
We have the technology to capture all the CO2 from coal fired power stations if we need to...
Ars artis est celare artem.

Skipjack
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Post by Skipjack »

We have the technology to capture all the CO2 from coal fired power stations if we need to...
Making it uneconomic in the process...
I think that nuclear power, one way or the other is the way to go. That includes fusion options, should they arrive.

Fossile fuels are problematic for many reasons, no matter whether you believe in AGW or not. Biggest problem at the moment is that they are still cheaper than other options.

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