MSimon wrote:Schneibster wrote:Teahive wrote:That doesn't mean there can't be a long-term trend for the average concentration of water vapor.
But there isn't.
It is worse than that. To make CO2 the devil gas the modelers need more water vapor in the atmosphere. So the prediction is for more water vapor Caused by CO2 heating. "Water vapor amplification" is the term.
Schneibster has falsified the models. - Well done sir.
Of course I have; nobody has a fully functional AOGCM yet. They're still working on the oceans, which can contain hundreds of times as much heat as the atmosphere, and absorb heat far more readily than rock and soil.
But that doesn't mean we can't already be 90% sure of the outcome; heat doesn't disappear, remember? Conservation of energy?
OK, now check the satellite data.
Somewhere, somehow, some way, that heat is going somewhere and doing something, and the big place it can hide is the ocean. Which is just the place we know the least about in terms of heat flows. We're modeling the ocean as a stable entity of average properties, when we know for a fact there are strata of both salt concentration and different heat content, and currents of all sizes that we do not use except in gross worldwide average, and so forth. And it's just about for sure we'll find out what's happening; but it's very unlikely it will be while we can still stop it.
So have a happy global heat physics experiment. Basically I think you put the pot on the fire and are sticking your head in to see if it's hot.
As far as your prediction, it looks pretty silly in the face of the enumeration of the problems I wrote above. OTOH, there is pretty strong evidence that during the Mesozoic, what some people call the Age of Dinosaurs or lizards or saurians or whatnot depending on how recent your source is, it was quite a bit hotter than now, and that it was therefore much more humid; this is evidence from many lines such as pollen types, insect types and sizes, types of geology found and their origin in wet climates, and so forth. So it's likely, if global warming goes on long enough and goes far enough, that that might happen to us too; but my bet is not, because enough people will have died by then that they lynch people who deny global warming and burn coal.
Whether or no, however, in thirty thousand years the ice is coming again unless we gain control of the carbon cycle and thermostat the atmosphere, or put up solar mirrors, or alter the Earth's orbit. But the human race has only existed 70,000 years more or less, so that's half that. Civilization has only existed nine thousand years at the most, as far as continuous records of societies that had writing. So thirty thousand years is a really, really long time. I wouldn't be ignoring global warming because "it's going to get cooler soon." Nor would I worry about how humid it's going to get quite yet; the heat is more the problem anyway.
We need a directorate of science, and we need it to be voted on only by scientists. You don't get to vote on reality. Get over it. Elected officials that deny the findings of the Science Directorate are subject to immediate impeachment for incompetence.
