The report, summarizing the views of more than a dozen outside experts with access to classified insider data, says facility scientists have made progress in resolving some technical problems in replicating the effects of a hydrogen bomb blast. But other crucial and difficult experiments, the government experts say, are only half to one-third complete.
"The NIF is operating in a stable, reliable, predictable and controllable manner," the committee said, and has made "extraordinary progress toward challenging goals."
But the Livermore scientists won't reach the "milestone" of achieving ignition this fiscal year, the experts said, and added: "The committee is concerned that this milestone ... may not be the best way to manage this program.
"A deadline imposed on an experimental discovery science program to achieve a particular result by a particular time at a particular cost is often unrealistic," the report said.
The committee proposed a number of highly technical steps to improve the chances of the Livermore facility's eventual success, and said several members of the group "expressed optimism about achieving ignition within a few years."
Hat tip to dennisp at Focusfusion.org.
Temperature, density, confinement time: pick any two.