Talk-Polywell.org

Jeremy

As a scientist, I'd estimate the odds of Dr Bussard's Polywell leading to a commercializable energy source one day as being low, but the payoff would be incalculable, so we absolutely ought to pursue this. A large prize for demonstrating milestones (such as a certain neutron flux per kV) is a simple and extremely cost-effective way for the DOE to promote the fundamental research needed to answer the question, especially compared with the huge sums of actual up-front cash being thrown at "traditional" fusion. Having the project limp along on a drip feed from the DoD is slow and inefficient.

Sat at 12:17pm

olivier wrote:A small steady investment with a low probability/extremely high payoff in return. This is exactly what Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls a "positive" black swan and what should be pursued.
Modern economy showed a preference for small steady revenues with a low probability/extremely high risk, see Enron, subprimes, Madoff, Iceland.
By the way, it is not a matter of capitalism vs. socialism. It is questioning our attitude toward uncertainty, it has to do with science and reason rather than political dogma.