As a scientist, I'd estimate the odds of Dr Bussard's Polywell leading to a commercializable energy source one day as being low, but the payoff would be incalculable, so we absolutely ought to pursue this. A large prize for demonstrating milestones (such as a certain neutron flux per kV) is a simple and extremely cost-effective way for the DOE to promote the fundamental research needed to answer the question, especially compared with the huge sums of actual up-front cash being thrown at "traditional" fusion. Having the project limp along on a drip feed from the DoD is slow and inefficient.
Sat at 12:17pm
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.
A small steady investment with a low probability/extremely high payoff in return. This is exactly what Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls a "positive" black swan and what should be pursued.
Modern economy showed a preference for small steady revenues with a low probability/extremely high risk, see Enron, subprimes, Madoff, Iceland.
By the way, it is not a matter of capitalism vs. socialism. It is questioning our attitude toward uncertainty, it has to do with science and reason rather than political dogma.
olivier wrote:A small steady investment with a low probability/extremely high payoff in return. This is exactly what Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls a "positive" black swan and what should be pursued.
Modern economy showed a preference for small steady revenues with a low probability/extremely high risk, see Enron, subprimes, Madoff, Iceland.
By the way, it is not a matter of capitalism vs. socialism. It is questioning our attitude toward uncertainty, it has to do with science and reason rather than political dogma.
Risking is reduced if the rewards are diminished. So political dogma does matter. Because the amount of risk taken is proportional to the rewards. You diminish the rewards and you get less risk taking. So capitalism vs socialism does matter.