Crunching the numbers

Point out news stories, on the net or in mainstream media, related to polywell fusion.

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Joseph Chikva
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Post by Joseph Chikva »

ladajo wrote:Any questions?

Thought not.
Yes.
With all of its 192 laser beams complete, NIF is the only facility that can perform controlled, experimental studies of thermonuclear burn, the phenomenon that gives rise to the immense energy of modern nuclear weapons.
https://lasers.llnl.gov/about/missions/ ... _security/
I think that if thermonuclear burn would ever be achieved by inertial confinement approach, it would not be a big difference would that be NIF or HIF.
But HIF (Heavy Ions Fusion) is also an actual program but never was considered its military application. But only fusion for power generation.

Joseph Chikva
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Post by Joseph Chikva »

Skipjack wrote:
Joseph Chikva wrote:
ladajo wrote:It happens to work very well for weapons work.
If it happens to work very well for power generation too. :)
No it does not!
Because of lower efficiency of lasers in comparison with particles accelerators?
Or why?
At least researchers talk about "thermonuclear burn" for weapon research.
Can thermonuclear burn in some conditions produce energy with Q>1?
Or can not?

ladajo
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Post by ladajo »

Joe,
They do not need to have Q>1 to do the weapons work.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

Joseph Chikva
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Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2011 4:30 am

Post by Joseph Chikva »

ladajo wrote:Joe,
They do not need to have Q>1 to do the weapons work.
You are right here. Thanks.

But in either way they need to achive ignition.
And in some conditions termonuclear burn can give Q>1.

ladajo
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Post by ladajo »

Sure, and that is what they base the "Energy Potential" marketing campaign on. At the end, they have been getting more money, and that is what they want. If they never produce viable "Fusion Power", that is ok, because from the beginning, that has not been their primary purpose.

If they do produce Q>1, then America gets to claim the "Title": "King of Fusion Power".

I remember seeing something somewhere that argued NIF was the closest program of any (substantial) efforts that could grab the Q>1 Claim to Fame.

Will they? Dunno.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

Joseph Chikva
Posts: 2039
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2011 4:30 am

Post by Joseph Chikva »

ladajo wrote:If they never produce viable "Fusion Power", that is ok, because from the beginning, that has not been their primary purpose.
At least there in the links provided by you is written "thermonuclear burn".
And primary purpose of all such inertial confinement approaches in their seed (idea) stage in the 70s of last century was the production of net power with the help of "thermonuclear burn". But now we see only NIF is considered as military program.
That is the fact.
What do you think, why?
My assumption that because of low efficiency of lasers not allowing to achieve Q>1. As I cannot see another explanation. But know that power generation is more significant than simulation of weapon that will never be used and even old design of which works with more than enough efficiency.
Aged? Out of date? Ok, you easily can build new with the same old design.
I really cannot understand the need of such simulation.

303
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Post by 303 »

how does it simulate a nuke anyway? unless the nif is going along with every missile, pretty sure they not getting a big explosion..

Joseph Chikva
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Post by Joseph Chikva »

303 wrote:how does it simulate a nuke anyway? unless the nif is going along with every missile, pretty sure they not getting a big explosion..
That as I understand can simulate only hydrogen bomb's explosion. And not uranium or plutonium bomb.

Now how big explosion could be:
The main amplification takes place in a series of glass amplifiers located at one end of the beamlines. Before "firing", the amplifiers are first optically pumped by a total of 7,680 xenon flash lamps (the PAMs have their own smaller flash lamps as well). The lamps are powered by a capacitor bank which stores a total of 422 megajoules (MJ) of electrical energy. When the wavefront passes through them, the amplifiers release some of the light energy stored in them into the beam. To improve the energy transfer the beams are sent though the main amplifier section four times, using an optical switch located in a mirrored cavity. In total these amplifiers boost the original 6 J provided by the PAMs to a nominal 4 MJ.[6] Given the time scale of a few billionths of a second, the peak UV power delivered to the target is correspondingly very high, 500 TW.
422 MJ of input energy gives 4 MJ of beam energy released in few billionths of a second giving 500 TW of power.
Energy released as result of fusion depends on achievable Q.
If Q=1 the same 4 MJ of energy.
For comparison:
TNT is reported to contain 2.8 megajoules per kilogram explosive energy.

So, 4 MJ corresponds to about 4/2.8= 1.43 kg TNT

ladajo
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Post by ladajo »

Joseph Chikva wrote:
ladajo wrote:If they never produce viable "Fusion Power", that is ok, because from the beginning, that has not been their primary purpose.
At least there in the links provided by you is written "thermonuclear burn".
And primary purpose of all such inertial confinement approaches in their seed (idea) stage in the 70s of last century was the production of net power with the help of "thermonuclear burn". But now we see only NIF is considered as military program.
That is the fact.
What do you think, why?
My assumption that because of low efficiency of lasers not allowing to achieve Q>1. As I cannot see another explanation. But know that power generation is more significant than simulation of weapon that will never be used and even old design of which works with more than enough efficiency.
Aged? Out of date? Ok, you easily can build new with the same old design.
I really cannot understand the need of such simulation.
Joe, read the links I gave you. You will then understand that the US no longer makes new weapons, and has not for a while. That is what "Stockpile Stewardship" is all about.

Gahhh...

As for how can NIF simulate a weapon...a little thought would tell you that it is in what they choose to fry. And that this sort of experimentation can help validate/update the existing computer simulations for weapons.

Do I also have to tell you that the main purpose of US Supercomputing is driven by the same issue?

Building and maintaining real and useful nuclear weapons, contrary to Hollywood and The Left is not something you can do in your Garden Shed. This is the main reason a number of nations have abandoned their weapons programs in the past. They got far enough along to finally realize they could not afford to keep it up, and also that they would never gain any sort of parity with the top tier. It takes a massive amount of resources and ability to produce and maintain these weapons. So much so that the US figured out that it was much cheaper just to maintain. But even that is a finite argument. Some day, we may find we will need to spin up and make some new ones, as keeping the old ones is costing too much. Pakistan and India are great examples. They have a nacent capability that is costing them a fortune, and for what really? Do you really think that the limited exchange they are capable of is going to win the war? Not a chance. It will be decided by ground forces, and probably India will win. They have mass on their side.
Look at North Korea. After how many years of trying it is still not certain they have a functioning weapon design. The muted "tests" are certainly not indicative as to having figured it out. And, more than likely, they have certainly not figured it out well enough to be able to put it on a rocket. It is even questionable that they have it figured out well enough to put it in an aircraft.
Israel is another great example. Arguably they have figured it out. Even to the point to be able to mount it on a rocket or drop it from aircraft. But how many do they really have? I would argue just enough to smoke the major cities of the regional "anti-zionist" crowd. They may be able to supplement with a number of battlefield tactical devices. But even that capability costs.
If nukes were easy and cheap, don't you think a whole lot more folks would have them?
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

Joseph Chikva
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Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2011 4:30 am

Post by Joseph Chikva »

I do not know what US is doing in this field. But having enough uranium-235 or plutonium many countries can make nuke bomb not spending much resources and place some of them not only in large missiles but even in artillery shells.
That is the fact.

Skipjack
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Post by Skipjack »

Joseph Chikva wrote:I do not know what US is doing in this field. But having enough uranium-235 or plutonium many countries can make nuke bomb not spending much resources and place some of them not only in large missiles but even in artillery shells.
That is the fact.
Yes, but if they signed the test bad treaty, they cant test them. Capiche?

Joseph Chikva
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Post by Joseph Chikva »

Skipjack wrote:
Joseph Chikva wrote:I do not know what US is doing in this field. But having enough uranium-235 or plutonium many countries can make nuke bomb not spending much resources and place some of them not only in large missiles but even in artillery shells.
That is the fact.
Yes, but if they signed the test bad treaty, they cant test them. Capiche?
Many countries including Russia, China, France, Great Britain, etc. have nuclear warheads on various carriers and at the same time I am sure high standards of reliability of their functioning. Also I am sure that hydrogen bomb is overkill for all imaginable military applications. Especially if to recall that today countries have shoot with much higher accuracy (lower CEP). As I know nobody today considers usage devices of e.g. hundreds thousands or millions tons TNT equivalent. But "only" tens thosands.
While NIF program by my understanding is urged for simulation of namely hydrogen explosive devices.

ladajo
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Post by ladajo »

Joseph Chikva wrote:I do not know what US is doing in this field. But having enough uranium-235 or plutonium many countries can make nuke bomb not spending much resources and place some of them not only in large missiles but even in artillery shells.
That is the fact.
Dude. Weapons grade material does not magically pop out of the ground or fall from the sky. You have to make it. You also have to be able to assemble it into a usefull device. Making a small enough weapon that can be mounted to a rocket or artillery shell is not easy. It also means you must produce a much better grade of weapons material than requried for a larger non-transportable device, and be able to precisely generate conditions for ignition. These are not easy things, nor are they cheap to do.

You really don't seem to have any realistic idea on what it takes to make a viable nuclear weapon. Do some reading.

If it was as easy as you think, many more folks would have weapons than the (literally) count them on your fingers that do. Afterall, everyone has known it can be done for the last 70 years. Surely that is enough time to figure it out and do it on your own...
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

Joseph Chikva
Posts: 2039
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2011 4:30 am

Post by Joseph Chikva »

ladajo wrote:Dude. Weapons grade material does not magically pop out of the ground or fall from the sky. You have to make it. You also have to be able to assemble it into a usefull device. Making a small enough weapon that can be mounted to a rocket or artillery shell is not easy.
Easy or not easy. Feasible. And quite successfully done in many places already.

Joseph Chikva
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Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2011 4:30 am

Post by Joseph Chikva »

ladajo wrote:If it was as easy as you think, many more folks would have weapons than the (literally) count them on your fingers that do.
Additionally
You are forgetting that many countries voluntary refuse the nuclear weapon. Germany has? Can't if wants? Japan? And so on and so on and so on.
I am afraid that I won't have enough fingers. :)

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