LENR Is Real

[ScottL]

Nothing on that site really gives me any confidence.

[Crawdaddy]

The substance of the result is that they observed an anomalous 30 -100 eV signal during their experiment.

Their detector was in a lead brick enclosure and the 78eV Pb ionization signal did not rise during observation of the high energy photons. I think this eliminates Cosmic Showers as a source of the signal.

The signal was low and used a poor choice of acquisition parameters.

They are also publishing their exact procedure and conducting replications.

If this signal is observed repeatedly, then it's a significant unexplained observation.

Too early to tell, but definitely worth keeping an eye on.

[ladajo]

Nothing on that site really gives me any confidence.

Nothing to write home about yet, but they are giving as best an honest and open shot as they can.
Unfortunately to date, they have not been able to replicate or confirm/refute anything.

This called a real attempt at science, it may not be perfect, but no lab I have ever been in is, and more importantly it is not what the Rossiclown does.

[birchoff]

Nothing on that site really gives me any confidence.

What would give you confidence?

[nferguso]

To be honest, I can't figure out how the Rossi saga can continue beyond this point in the true Rossi manner. Is there any kind of plausible chapter that can follow this? Unless his reactor works as claimed, of course.

Well, my bet is on the report being issued and it showing significant, usable source of heat energy well over the input energy. That is always the next chapter, and will be the one after that too. Exactly like his prior reports...

A grand saga needs listeners. If he tried yet another reboot, where he tries somehow to handwave away the "credible" evaluator and the implicit guarantee of Cherokee Investment Fund, I can't believe that even the most credulous supporter would deny that this is The End. What could he possibly do to drag everyone along to the next chapter?

[ladajo]

Amazing how the Rossibots blew off any implication of prior investor withdrawals.
I have not made a list, but it seems to be growing each cycle.
One of the more intriguing being the last set of investors threatening to sue Rossiclown, and he then used new investor money to pay them back and dodge the law suit.
That, to me at least, smacks directly of a pyramid scam.
Should we change the naming convention from Rossiclown to Rossidoff?
I am sure that Bernie would love to have a namesake...

[ScottL]

Nothing on that site really gives me any confidence.

What would give you confidence?

More work, data, and analysis. As noted by others, they really aren't showing much yet. I suspect if they are true to form progressively doing good albeit rough experimentation, that they'll eliminate or chalk up to noise any signal measurement. This is what I expect, but would love my expectations to be wrong.

[JoeP]

Nothing on that site really gives me any confidence.

What would give you confidence?

More work, data, and analysis. As noted by others, they really aren't showing much yet. I suspect if they are true to form progressively doing good albeit rough experimentation, that they'll eliminate or chalk up to noise any signal measurement. This is what I expect, but would love my expectations to be wrong.

Another thing that bothers me about the mfmp is that they seem to take the stance that CF is real, and they are just looking for the proof. "The New Fire." They also appear in commentary to revere Rossi. So they have huge bias.

That said, I do applaud the open science of their efforts (not a fraud, no obfuscation).

[ladajo]

Given that comments are open to anyone, do you think maybe that the Rossibots are simply adding to the pile?

I don't recall any specific experimenter comments praising Rossiclown. Celani, yes. Some others, yes. Not anything I can put my mental finger on for the idiot.

Although, I do see the bias, especially when one considers how many cracks the experimenters have taken at Celani "wire", and not gotten any replication or success. Yet they keep going back to him...

[ScottL]

A believer will persist in their belief regardless of failure or contrary evidence to their belief. A reasonable person will with enough failure and lacking no evidence, concede that either the work is not within their power or that it is not possible.

[birchoff]

What would give you confidence?

More work, data, and analysis. As noted by others, they really aren't showing much yet. I suspect if they are true to form progressively doing good albeit rough experimentation, that they'll eliminate or chalk up to noise any signal measurement. This is what I expect, but would love my expectations to be wrong.

Another thing that bothers me about the mfmp is that they seem to take the stance that CF is real, and they are just looking for the proof. "The New Fire." They also appear in commentary to revere Rossi. So they have huge bias.

That said, I do applaud the open science of their efforts (not a fraud, no obfuscation).

@ScottL

Understood. Though from my perspective I see them doing more work, generating more data, and carrying out more analysis. This isnt the end of the road for MFMP. If it was then I would be sorely disappointed because the one thing LENR/CF research needs is an abundance of sunlight and they are providing it. As for whether or not the signal is noise. I am willing to believe it isnt, and any criticism leveled against their experimental setup will simply lead to them refining the setup and running the test again.

@JoeP

The problem with this particular thread is it TENDS to conflates Rossi's claims with being the state of the art of LENR/CF. I think MFMP are very much justified to take the stance that CR\LENR is real. Between the SPAWAR co-deposition research, and the replicated Mitsubishi heavy industries experiment; there is sufficient evidence to support their stance. In addition, MFMP has done a solid job of not letting their belief in the reality of the hypothesis prevent them from doing the work necessary to accurately characterize their measurement setup; as best they can with the limited funds that they have. And simply looking at what they presented I would consider it to be solid progress. Primarily because the real smoking gun for LENR/CF being real and not experimental error is Transmutation and release of Gamma/Xrays. Which is what their recorded results show, along with a strong correlation to the excess heat measurement.

Now I am most unhappy with the way they Hyped the announcement of their results. Personally I believe it was unnecessary. LENR/CF has a small but passionate and load following. Which means they could have completed their experimental reports without the hype. Published the report, with early copies going to their financial supporters, and they still would have ended up causing as great a stir as they did. With one major difference. No one would have been speculating on how this announcement would change the world overnight. No one would be talking about how this will make the wheel obsolete. No one would feel let down by their inability to match the hysteria they inadvertently created. Hell they could have limited the pre-announcement they did to just their financial supporters. I hope no more future announcements are done in the manner that they carried this one out in.

[birchoff]

What would give you confidence?

More work, data, and analysis. As noted by others, they really aren't showing much yet. I suspect if they are true to form progressively doing good albeit rough experimentation, that they'll eliminate or chalk up to noise any signal measurement. This is what I expect, but would love my expectations to be wrong.

Another thing that bothers me about the mfmp is that they seem to take the stance that CF is real, and they are just looking for the proof. "The New Fire." They also appear in commentary to revere Rossi. So they have huge bias.

That said, I do applaud the open science of their efforts (not a fraud, no obfuscation).

@ScottL

Understood. Though from my perspective I see them doing more work, generating more data, and carrying out more analysis. This isnt the end of the road for MFMP. If it was then I would be sorely disappointed because the one thing LENR/CF research needs is an abundance of sunlight and they are providing it. As for whether or not the signal is noise. I am willing to believe it isnt, and any criticism leveled against their experimental setup will simply lead to them refining the setup and running the test again.

@JoeP

The problem with this particular thread is it TENDS to conflates Rossi's claims with being the state of the art of LENR/CF. I think MFMP are very much justified to take the stance that CR\LENR is real. Between the SPAWAR co-deposition research, and the replicated Mitsubishi heavy industries experiment; there is sufficient evidence to support their stance. In addition, MFMP has done a solid job of not letting their belief in the reality of the hypothesis prevent them from doing the work necessary to accurately characterize their measurement setup; as best they can with the limited funds that they have. And simply looking at what they presented I would consider it to be solid progress. Primarily because the real smoking gun for LENR/CF being real and not experimental error is Transmutation and release of Gamma/Xrays. Which is what their recorded results show, along with a strong correlation to the excess heat measurement.

Now I am most unhappy with the way they Hyped the announcement of their results. Personally I believe it was unnecessary. LENR/CF has a small but passionate and load following. Which means they could have completed their experimental reports without the hype. Published the report, with early copies going to their financial supporters, and they still would have ended up causing as great a stir as they did. With one major difference. No one would have been speculating on how this announcement would change the world overnight. No one would be talking about how this will make the wheel obsolete. No one would feel let down by their inability to match the hysteria they inadvertently created. Hell they could have limited the pre-announcement they did to just their financial supporters. I hope no more future announcements are done in the manner that they carried this one out in.

[Giorgio]

The problem with this particular thread is it TENDS to conflates Rossi's claims with being the state of the art of LENR/CF.

To my memory, no one here ever said something like that.

I think MFMP are very much justified to take the stance that CR\LENR is real.

Everyone is free to take the stance he desires, but when he "claim" that his stance is the real truth, than that requires proofs.
MFMP are more open in their research attempts than many others, but they are still refusing to make a plain and simple experimental setup that would remove most of the potential source of errors, hence their experiments will never give a definitive answer (be it positive or negative) to their claims.

[parallel]

James Rice
February 25, 2016 at 8:32 PM

Dear Dr. Rossi:

Way back when, I attended your September 2012 conference in Switzerland, wherein you revealed the Hot Cat. I emailed you shortly thereafter with an offer to invest my savings in your company. I was too late. You kindly responded and said,

“I thank you very much for your kind and courageous offer. I will contact you when to invest on us will not be as risky as it is now. I want not to play football with your bones.”

I think the football-bones time is rapidly drawing to a close, and I would encourage you to do a small private placement now. You can sell up to $1 million a year of stock to non-accredited (non-millionaire) investors under Rule 504, Regulation D of the Securities Act.

That would allow the hundreds (thousands?) of small investors who have been faithful followers of your adventure to be a part of this historic event. It would be a shame if the only people to profit from an early investment in your inventions are millionaire venture capitalists.

Sincerely,

Jim Rice
Andrea Rossi
February 26, 2016 at 10:01 AM

James Rice:
Your comment is important.
I will be delighted to comply with what you propose, but not before having a product enough diffused in the market. Only at that point I will be sure that I do not risk to burn the savings of small investors. I still want not to play American foot-ball with the bones of the others. Our ship is still a warship, not a cruise ship. I could never forgive myself to have burnt the savings of persons that trust me. I can accept financing from professional investors, well aware of all the risks connected with us, but I cannot accept money from persons for whom a loss of their investments could change in worse their life.
It is possible we will go public, but only after our E-Cats will have been well diffused in the market. Take as an example Bill Gate’s Microsoft: they went public only after their products were well diffused in the market. This is the model to follow, not to hurt people.
Warm Regards,
A.R.

[ladajo]

Because the SEC will crush you for fraud.

Nobody ever said Rossiclown was dumb. A criminal yes, but not dumb.
His funding to date is skipping a thin line for SEC engagement.