What might the effect be on the election?

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rj40
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What might the effect be on the election?

Post by rj40 »

Perhaps we already had this discussion? What might the effect be on the presidential election if a good Polywell result is announced before hand? Would it help McCain? Would it amount to nothing? Perhaps the Navy is waiting so as not to seem to be trying to influence the election with an “October surprise?”

blaisepascal
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Re: What might the effect be on the election?

Post by blaisepascal »

rj40 wrote:Perhaps we already had this discussion? What might the effect be on the presidential election if a good Polywell result is announced before hand? Would it help McCain? Would it amount to nothing? Perhaps the Navy is waiting so as not to seem to be trying to influence the election with an “October surprise?”
In order for it to benefit a candidate now, he would have to (a) know about it, (b) be able to educate the voters about it, (c) show how it it important to the voters, and (d) convince them that he, not his opponent, will promote it and get it done.

Some of those are though under any conditions. Doing them in less than a month is virtually impossible. Remember: Very few people know about the Polywell, the report is "subtle and nuanced", and even in the best scenario it would be hard to have a Polywell reactor on the grid while either of the gentlemen up for election are in office.

TallDave
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Post by TallDave »

I doubt anyone will notice.

After the election, Obama is more likely to spend taxpayer dollars, but McCain is less scared of the nuclear boogeyman. A wash, I'd say.

Roger
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Re: What might the effect be on the election?

Post by Roger »

rj40 wrote:Perhaps we already had this discussion?
I think so.
What might the effect be on the presidential election if a good Polywell result is announced before hand?
None. Its the economy stupid.
Would it help McCain?
No. Would it help the economy?
Would it amount to nothing?
Correct.
Perhaps the Navy is waiting so as not to seem to be trying to influence the election with an “October surprise?”
Jeesh, take the tinfoil off your head. And watch the Nikkei index.
I like the p-B11 resonance peak at 50 KV acceleration. In2 years we'll know.

rj40
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Post by rj40 »

That all makes sense to me. And remember, just because I ask it, doesn't mean I believe it.

I too suspect few would notice - but cold fusion seemed to make a big media splash, so who knows?

Yeah, too late to help either side.

Would it help the economy? What percentage of the economy is emotion? A glowing report along the lines of that cold fusion thing in the 1980’s, but with plenty of peer review and big names supporting it might cheer people up. The emotion part of the economy might get an immediate boost. Doesn’t the University of Michigan do some sort of consumer sentiment survey that can ‘ffect company planning, stocks and the like? I wonder if a good report would help with that. Might even give a boost to GE stock. Who knows, I like to speculate though – but NOT in the stock market! Of course, if the economy is too screwed up (wouldn’t be surprised, but I am not an economist), emotion would only take you so far.

I don't get the tin-foil Nikkei comment though. The Nikkei is falling. So are most markets. Scary stuff if one only has a few years before one needs the money. Roger, you’re too nice. You need to be more like this guy:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mj5IV23g-fE

:D

Thanks for the comments.

gblaze42
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Post by gblaze42 »

I believe Dr. Nebel stated that they are trying to keep things below the radar as to prevent what happened with the "cold fusion" fiasco, hype will only cause harm in research.

rj40
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Post by rj40 »

Yes. That sounds reasonable. But the cold fusion fiasco was due, ultimately, to it not working. Imagine if this got our prematurely, but it actually worked. People would start by attempting to show how it doesn't really work (or ignoring it!), only to discover repeatable and falsifiable results over and over again. I'm not saying that is the way to go.

I think flying beneath the RADAR is a good idea. The “too good to be true” aspect might just get it killed. Then it would take years longer to get going.

gblaze42
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Post by gblaze42 »

It's not only because it didn't work. Failing is okay because you learn the most from failure. It's hyping it before it really was proven to work that was the issue.

djolds1
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Re: What might the effect be on the election?

Post by djolds1 »

rj40 wrote:Perhaps we already had this discussion? What might the effect be on the presidential election if a good Polywell result is announced before hand? Would it help McCain? Would it amount to nothing? Perhaps the Navy is waiting so as not to seem to be trying to influence the election with an “October surprise?”
It doesn't help McCain. He's firing on fumes, and needs an external event to reverse matters, or Obama to do something monumentally stupid. The first is possible, but I don't see the second. And Navy won't game it, they won't want to PO the winner this close to the election. Results would be reported evenhandedly.

Roger Fox is of the opinion that since all Democrats have voiced support for fission, consequences for clean fusion should be positive. I remain doubtful, but would very much like to be proven wrong.

Duane
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djolds1
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Re: What might the effect be on the election?

Post by djolds1 »

Roger wrote:
rj40 wrote:Perhaps the Navy is waiting so as not to seem to be trying to influence the election with an “October surprise?”
Jeesh, take the tinfoil off your head. And watch the Nikkei index.
Politics.

IMO there are only two possible October surprises now.

1) Israel attacks Iran. If Israel thinks an Obama administration will suppress this option, they hit before the election to give McCain a boost and force Obama to support Israel to hold onto the Jewish American vote. Win-win for Israel.

2) Old metaphor. Obama would have to be found in bed with a dead girl or a live boy. Not probable.

Duane
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TallDave
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Post by TallDave »

Roger Fox is of the opinion that since all Democrats have voiced support for fission
Huh? Barack and most Dems are opposed to fission.

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/newenergy
or Obama to do something monumentally stupid.
Like associating with unrepentant terrorists, America-hating pastors, and convicted Chicago Machine fixers? I doubt anything he does would matter. At this point he could promise to execute all his political opponents and the press would praise his firm but evenhanded position.
Obama would have to be found in bed with a dead girl or a live boy
Ha, mentioning it would be called "Rovian politics, a distraction from the country's real problems." More likely, it just wouldn't be reported during the campaign, as happened with John Edwards' mistress' child.

gblaze42
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Post by gblaze42 »

TallDave wrote:
Roger Fox is of the opinion that since all Democrats have voiced support for fission
Huh? Barack and most Dems are opposed to fission.

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/newenergy
or Obama to do something monumentally stupid.
Like associating with unrepentant terrorists, America-hating pastors, and convicted Chicago Machine fixers? I doubt anything he does would matter. At this point he could promise to execute all his political opponents and the press would praise his firm but evenhanded position.
Obama would have to be found in bed with a dead girl or a live boy
Ha, mentioning it would be called "Rovian politics, a distraction from the country's real problems." More likely, it just wouldn't be reported during the campaign, as happened with John Edwards's mistress' child.
You get that feeling too?
I think It's that wishful thinking, 'let's pretend we didn't hear that and it won't come back on us later'

djolds1
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Post by djolds1 »

TallDave wrote:
Roger Fox is of the opinion that since all Democrats have voiced support for fission
Huh? Barack and most Dems are opposed to fission.

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/newenergy
Roger cited a youtube file of the Dem debates. Both Hillary and Obama were explicitly in favor of nukes.
TallDave wrote:
or Obama to do something monumentally stupid.
Like associating with unrepentant terrorists, America-hating pastors, and convicted Chicago Machine fixers? I doubt anything he does would matter.
Ayers has never gotten traction, and is unlikely to in three weeks. Rezko has managed to be swept under the rug. Wright remains a major vulnerability; you just can't shrug off a 20 year association with that much indisputable closeness. But the economic meltdown is muting the impact of that.
TallDave wrote:At this point he could promise to execute all his political opponents and the press would praise his firm but evenhanded position.
Grip. Acquire.
TallDave wrote:
Obama would have to be found in bed with a dead girl or a live boy.
Ha, mentioning it would be called "Rovian politics, a distraction from the country's real problems." More likely, it just wouldn't be reported during the campaign, as happened with John Edwards' mistress' child.
Metaphor. Something of that scale of fu*kup

And nothing THAT big could be suppressed. But Obama isn't stupid enough to do it, not in the home stretch.

Duane
Last edited by djolds1 on Fri Oct 10, 2008 4:44 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Vae Victis

TallDave
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Post by TallDave »

Roger cited a youtube file of the Dem debates. Both Hillary and Obama were explicitly in favor of nukes.
Yeah, that was around the time he promised to take public financing, too.

Do you see nuclear power anywhere in his current platform?

McCain is ardently in favor of nuclear power. Obama might reluctantly accept it, but probably won't have to with a Dem Congress.
Grip. Acquire.
Hyperbole. Grasp.

TallDave
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Post by TallDave »

Nothing THAT big could be suppressed.
Ha, next you'll tell me a major network news show could never broadcast supposed 1971 memos proving a sitting President received special treatment in the National Guard that were actually crudely forged in Microsoft Word mere weeks before the election.

Or that Newsweek wouldn't spike the Monica Lewinsky story.

I could go on...

Makes you wonder how much we never hear about.

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