Recovery.Gov Project Tracker

Point out news stories, on the net or in mainstream media, related to polywell fusion.

Moderators: tonybarry, MSimon

Giorgio
Posts: 3061
Joined: Wed Oct 07, 2009 6:15 pm
Location: China, Italy

Post by Giorgio »

hanelyp wrote:Power scaling of R^3*B^4 is well established physics. Assuming the magnetic field is limited by current density in the magnets, B proportionate to R is a plausible engineering estimate. This leads to R^7 power. Assuming R^2 losses, R^5 power gain.
I would like to have your belief but, as discussed in another thread, the only way to establish this rule is to actually build it to the desired size.
There is a ton of phenomena that might get amplified as size scales up, and might play against (or in favour) of power scaling.

Giorgio
Posts: 3061
Joined: Wed Oct 07, 2009 6:15 pm
Location: China, Italy

Post by Giorgio »

ladajo wrote:'bout that time again.
Any bets this time on the report?

I say, "testing behind, fuel introduced, fusions produced, anticipate full power testing by May 2011, projection for WB8 project completion by July, 2011, with final report by September 2011."
I say,"testing behind, fuel introduced, fusions produced, MIB knocked on door, facility moved to Roswell" :D

mvanwink5
Posts: 2143
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:07 am
Location: N.C. Mountains

Post by mvanwink5 »

I can remember when scientists strongly believed the moon was covered in a 10 foot deep dust layer, and that if a space craft landed, it would sink and be buried. I am not sure how many here were around back in those days that might remember all the speculation that went on before we actually found out what was really there.

We all might look back at today with the same amazement at all the different speculations. Too much fun! We are still in a world of major discovery.

Feels like waiting for Christmas again.
Counting the days to commercial fusion. It is not that long now.

ladajo
Posts: 6258
Joined: Thu Sep 17, 2009 11:18 pm
Location: North East Coast

Post by ladajo »

D Tibbets wrote:
mvanwink5 wrote:First plasma November 1, 2010, so nearly six months of operation with plasma. I wonder if R. Nebel has had WB-8 up to full power yet, or if he is being methodical and won't know what it looks like at maximum for a while?
I have speculated before about how much faster the data collection may be for this presumably magnet cooled machine. With WB6,7, the magnets would have to be cooled down while maintaining deep vacuums. The time between tests may have been a minimum of a few hours for the uncooled machines, and only a few minutes for WB8. . It also depends on the vacuum pumping. I suspect that even the vacuum vessel for WB8 is smaller than the large tank they had for WB6, so pumping time limits were probably also shorter- to clear the gas after each run.

I speculate that the first tests were plasma studies, magnet testing, gradual build up. Wiffleball tests, then lower B, lower Volt tests, and a few tests to near maximum B and Voltage tests. Then they probably backed of and did numerous tests as they gradually scaled up B and V levels. Finally, maximum B and V tests to try to squeeze out the most scaling information. With better controls, they might also significantly push the duration of tests- instead of a fraction of a millisecond, they might manage several hundred milliseconds. That would be very valuable in arguments about thermalization issues, more more truely steady state operation.

In, short they may have bee able to acquire critical information within a couple of months of first plasma. Provided the machine survives, they could then probably spend many months testing subtle effects as they twist the knobs.

Then again, they may be struggling with various problems, and be stalled.

Dan Tibbets
I think that given the consequences of this testing phase, that they are going very methodically.
Also, do not forget that they are doing ion injection, vice gas puff. That changes the testing dynamic as well.

D Tibbets
Posts: 2775
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2008 6:52 am

Post by D Tibbets »

Very methodical, yes. But what does that mean? A straight forward interpretation would be that they begin small and gradually build up, but considering the real chance of a magnetic coil failure at anytime, even at low loads, some early moderately high level tests may be warranted. As in many threads, the arguments all start with certain assumptions. It's all speculation anyway and has little predictive value.

Dan Tibbbets
To error is human... and I'm very human.

ladajo
Posts: 6258
Joined: Thu Sep 17, 2009 11:18 pm
Location: North East Coast

Post by ladajo »

In regard to the coils, that is not so true. Thye learned frmo teh WB6 rubbing failure, and to quote Rick, WB7 runs like a top, you can collect data on it all day long. In fact, they may still have been doing runs on it while waiting for WB8 pieces parts. Why not?
I would assume :) that they have carried the coil and container design lessons forward to WB8.

If I had to put my money on it, I would say that if they have not gotten to fueled full potential already, that they are pretty well along.

ladajo
Posts: 6258
Joined: Thu Sep 17, 2009 11:18 pm
Location: North East Coast

Post by ladajo »

And, just to add "fuel" to the fire, Linked-In now shows Dr Richard Nebel of Santa Fe, New Mexico as a "Independent Research Professional".

What up with that?

D Tibbets
Posts: 2775
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2008 6:52 am

Post by D Tibbets »

Dr Nebel in Santa Fa? Now that is fuel for wild speculation!. Did they have a falling out, conflict on course of action? Does Nebel wish to pursue POPS or other research at LANL? It probably pays better. Is he satisfied (or despondent) with the results and does not desire to continue in what might be a mostly engineering or futile effort?
Is Nebel unhappy that he cannot reveal the results like he promised in a different forum a couple of years ago? Does Nebel hate California? does Nebel fear earthquakes (I just watched the movie 2012)? Did he get paid off by the oil companies? Did EMC2 get bought off by the coal companies? ...

Dan Tibbets
To error is human... and I'm very human.

Ivy Matt
Posts: 711
Joined: Sat May 01, 2010 6:43 am

Post by Ivy Matt »

Did Nebel get canned for vaporizing the facility in February?
Temperature, density, confinement time: pick any two.

Giorgio
Posts: 3061
Joined: Wed Oct 07, 2009 6:15 pm
Location: China, Italy

Post by Giorgio »

ladajo wrote:And, just to add "fuel" to the fire, Linked-In now shows Dr Richard Nebel of Santa Fe, New Mexico as a "Independent Research Professional".

What up with that?
Are you thinking that he quitted from the navy research contract?

ladajo
Posts: 6258
Joined: Thu Sep 17, 2009 11:18 pm
Location: North East Coast

Post by ladajo »

I think that his name being taken off the Recovery.gov reporting is a big clue, and that the Linked-in reference is another.

DeltaV
Posts: 2245
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 5:05 am

Post by DeltaV »

Another possibility:
Nebel is a theorist. Park is an experimentalist.
Theory confirmed? Nebel now available for consulting.

Or, theory falsified...

KitemanSA
Posts: 6179
Joined: Sun Sep 28, 2008 3:05 pm
Location: OlyPen WA

Post by KitemanSA »

DeltaV wrote:Another possibility:
Nebel is a theorist. Park is an experimentalist.
Theory confirmed? Nebel now available for consulting.

Or, theory falsified...
Or: results "nuanced", theory partially supported, not as good as we had hoped but better than we had feared, more tests at another scale are needed to clarify the questions, and I'm just too old for this...

ladajo
Posts: 6258
Joined: Thu Sep 17, 2009 11:18 pm
Location: North East Coast

Post by ladajo »

Sounds like you are slowly moving towards Chris's position of gravy train development...
:D

dnavas
Posts: 84
Joined: Sun Nov 11, 2007 3:59 am

Post by dnavas »

http://www.linkedin.com/pub/richard-nebel/29/658/752

One wonders when the interest in career opportunities and new ventures began. Sorry to hear.

-Dave

Post Reply