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Helius
Joined: 21 Oct 2007
Posts: 329
Location: Syracuse, New York
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 Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 4:01 am Post subject: A little bit of news from Alan Boyle @ NBC. |
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There is a paragraph about Dr. Nebel's efforts. Good, but I thought experiments were underway. As all of us, I get a little steamed about the "pittance" thing....
http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/04/02/851992.aspx |
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MSimon
Joined: 16 Jul 2007
Posts: 6763
Location: Rockford, Illinois
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| Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 7:20 am Post subject: Re: A little bit of news from Alan Boyle @ NBC. |
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Tom Ligon informed me that they were collecting data. That was about a week ago.
I don't know what is going on but maybe things are going slower than expected or the data is re: the set up and not related to actual fusion.
Let us think of this in military terms. Most reports will be confusing. They will be exaggerated. They will be wrong. They will be misunderstood.
I have the tel# of the lab and could also contact Dr. Nebel by e-mail. I refrain. Why? If Dr. Nebel wanted publicity he knows how to get it. He could contact the media. He could contact me, Tall Dave, Tom Ligon and others. The fact that he is silent means he wishes to say nothing. I'll have to be content with that.
BTW the MSNBC estimate of energy use by 2100 of 50X current usage is way high IMO. 10X is more what I would expect.
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TallDave
Joined: 25 Jul 2007
Posts: 2040
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| Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 3:32 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Researchers in New Mexico are seeking to duplicate the late physicist Robert Bussard's experiments with an electrostatic plasma containment device that appeared to offer a low-cost route to fusion. Today, team leader Richard Nebel told me that the device was still under construction, and that testing had not yet begun. "We're getting close," he said |
That's interesting, I had thought they were already testing. Maybe this interview was done prior to the blog entry, or perhaps Nebel means "testing" in a more formal "official results" sense.
Or is it possible they're setting up to do some POPS experimenting in addition to validating the WB-6 data? Is that even feasible in this setup or allowed by contract? Maybe someone who knows will weigh in. |
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TallDave
Joined: 25 Jul 2007
Posts: 2040
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| Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 3:34 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | BTW the MSNBC estimate of energy use by 2100 of 50X current usage is way high IMO. 10X is more what I would expect. |
Honestly, I would not be surprised if it is closer to 1000x. If we have AI and self-replication we could be building a Dyson sphere by then.
The Egyptians built the pyramids with a BFMI operation: brute force massive ignorance. BFMI takes on entirely new capabilities when you change that to Massive Intelligence. |
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Helius
Joined: 21 Oct 2007
Posts: 329
Location: Syracuse, New York
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| Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 4:48 pm Post subject: |
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| TallDave wrote: |
That's interesting, I had thought they were already testing. Maybe this interview was done prior to the blog entry, or perhaps Nebel means "testing" in a more formal "official results" sense.
Or is it possible they're setting up to do some POPS experimenting in addition to validating the WB-6 data? Is that even feasible in this setup or allowed by contract? Maybe someone who knows will weigh in. |
I don't think it is old info. Mr. Boyle's a good science reporter, and he's telling us something. He knows we're here.
Maybe I'm reading too much into Mr. Boyle's blurb, but I don't see a negative scenario. It sounds like Dr. Nebel has a funding stream to push forward. I hope They're funded such that they can test interesting possibilities beyond getting more neutrons than what has ever been delivered from an IEC device before. It doesn't sound like he's going to need to scramble to shutdown for lack of funding in the timeframes we were originally thinking on this board. |
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MSimon
Joined: 16 Jul 2007
Posts: 6763
Location: Rockford, Illinois
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| Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 4:56 pm Post subject: |
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Helius,
That is an interesting take. You could be right.
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TallDave
Joined: 25 Jul 2007
Posts: 2040
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| Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 7:07 pm Post subject: |
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Aha! Alan Boyle kindly elucidates:
| Quote: | TallDave, Richard Nebel told me yesterday that his team had to wait for parts to come in from outside the country, so their schedule was delayed for that reason. He said they hadn't yet fired up the WB-6 ... but I suppose they could be testing some components. And then again, there's always the possibility that a researcher isn't telling a journalist everything that's going on in the lab. What a surprise that would be.  In any case, Richard said to check back in about a month. If anyone else who's in the know wants to weigh in, please do! All I know is what people tell me (or what I see ... one of these days I'll have to head down to New Mexico and check in with EMC2Fusion). |
Given that we already had first plasma, I'm guessing that means they're waiting for some testing components. |
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MSimon
Joined: 16 Jul 2007
Posts: 6763
Location: Rockford, Illinois
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| Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 8:33 pm Post subject: |
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Dave,
The logistics of that doesn't make sense, unless it was something overlooked or they found a problem and needed a fix.
It also doesn't fit the fragment Tom Ligon gave me, who I assume would be a better reporter and would also be getting the most accurate info being a friend of the family and all.
If the start of summer (21 June) was the original deadline I'd think the new schedule would be beginning of August for a report.
This is agonizing. And being an April Fool didn't help.
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jlumartinez
Joined: 28 Jun 2007
Posts: 139
Location: Spain
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| Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 9:51 pm Post subject: |
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We should be patient. MSimon, Tom, TallDave,... and all the big gurus should transmit that feeling to everyone and try to not focus this forum into the idea of "if they get delayed is because ....". If not it will be a long suffer till the summer or autumn
Everyone who have done research in the lab knows that even a planned experiment takes double or more time to be done than planned. You can imagine if you are experimenting with new things. Every small step is a huge difficulty to be solved. They need time and tranquility.
If I were Nebel and the results are as we are expecting from the beginning I will never spread the results first into the public domain. If I were researching for breakthrough step the first thing to do will be publish it into a peer reviewed issue. That the way of having much of the scientific community in your side. If not you will always listen to many saying you are an scam. |
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MSimon
Joined: 16 Jul 2007
Posts: 6763
Location: Rockford, Illinois
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| Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 10:25 pm Post subject: |
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| jlumartinez wrote: | | We should be patient. MSimon, Tom, TallDave,... and all the big gurus should transmit that feeling to everyone and try to not focus this forum into the idea of "if they get delayed is because ....". If not it will be a long suffer till the summer or autumn |
I love to speculate. In most cases totally useless. It does keep the motor warmed up.
| Quote: | | Everyone who have done research in the lab knows that even a planned experiment takes double or more time to be done than planned. You can imagine if you are experimenting with new things. Every small step is a huge difficulty to be solved. They need time and tranquility. |
I believe I have said that. The tranquility part. BTW a redo should go more smoothly than the first time around. Should being the operative word.
| Quote: | | If I were Nebel and the results are as we are expecting from the beginning I will never spread the results first into the public domain. If I were researching for breakthrough step the first thing to do will be publish it into a peer reviewed issue. That the way of having much of the scientific community in your side. If not you will always listen to many saying you are an scam. |
Peer review is just a way of maintaining the consensus. Nice for incremental advances. Not so good for breakthroughs.
BTW I trust the Navy science auditors more than I trust peer review. The Navy is spending its "own" money. The proof of success will be: The Navy commits to spending $200 mn for WB-100.
We really don't need the scientific community on our side. We have been doing a pretty good job with a small committed fraction. It has been enough so far.
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TallDave
Joined: 25 Jul 2007
Posts: 2040
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| Posted: Fri Apr 04, 2008 2:37 pm Post subject: |
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That's it, I'm installing the hidden cameras and mikes.
Who's got a ski mask I can borrow? |
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JoeStrout
Site Admin
Joined: 26 Jun 2007
Posts: 219
Location: Fort Collins, CO, USA
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| Posted: Fri Apr 04, 2008 5:38 pm Post subject: reply from Dr. Nebel |
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Dr. Nebel himself chimed in on Alan's blog yesterday, and had this to say:
| Quote: | Since there seems to be some confusion here, I guess I should clarify some things. Yes, we are operating the WB-7 and we have had plasma since the first of the year. What we don't yet have is full pulsed power capability which is required to test the concept. As many of you are probably aware, plasma experiments have a lot of different components that have to come together (vacuum systems, HV systems, safety systems, gas feed systems, etc.). The general proceedure is to test them component by component before you try to do an integrated test. We have been doing those component tests. The components that Alan alluded to that we were waiting on came in this week. Now we are building the hardware. We are a few weeks behind our original ambitious schedule (we started in September 2007 with a building and no equipment) but we haven't seen any showstoppers yet.
As to Ned's "rules", we don't get to write those. Our customer does that. |
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Joe Strout
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JohnP
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
Posts: 241
Location: Chicago
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| Posted: Fri Apr 04, 2008 5:40 pm Post subject: |
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This is agonizing. And being an April Fool didn't help. |
My apologies if my attempt at humor didn't work. I thought a laugh would ease the tension. Sorry if I created gray hairs instead! |
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MSimon
Joined: 16 Jul 2007
Posts: 6763
Location: Rockford, Illinois
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| Posted: Fri Apr 04, 2008 7:08 pm Post subject: |
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| JohnP wrote: | | Quote: |
This is agonizing. And being an April Fool didn't help. |
My apologies if my attempt at humor didn't work. I thought a laugh would ease the tension. Sorry if I created gray hairs instead! |
John,
It did a little of both. In any case I went grey when I was 30. I'm now 63. On the plus side I still have my hair.
Today I'm laughing. So you are OK by me.
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TallDave
Joined: 25 Jul 2007
Posts: 2040
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| Posted: Fri Apr 04, 2008 9:00 pm Post subject: Re: reply from Dr. Nebel |
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| JoeStrout wrote: | | Dr. Nebel himself chimed in on Alan's blog yesterday, and had this to say: |
Ah, thanks Joe, very helpful. That comment must have been approved late this morning; it wasn't up yet when I posted my 2nd.
So, looks like they're testing components and will hopefully have a full power test this month.
Does anyone need a slightly used ski mask? |
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