EMC2 news

Point out news stories, on the net or in mainstream media, related to polywell fusion.

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D Tibbets
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Re: EMC2 news

Postby D Tibbets » Fri Sep 18, 2015 4:18 am

Neutron counts is a method of measuring fusion, but it tells you little about the parameters that may be of most interest to a plasma physicist. Things like density, voltage, potential well depth measurements with probes, etc.. are used to model a system. Neutron counts from D-D or D-T fusion are demonstrative though and relatively easy compared to other measurements. Electrical counters are probably used mostly as bubble detectors give you minimal time interval information.It is a good backup though for countering any electronic noise in the electronic neutron counters.

As far as neutron counts, EMC2 reported counts with various machines up to and including WB6. I have seen no mention of neutron counts for WB7, WB8 or MiniB. Weather they were done and the possible results are not available. Also, I am unaware of any such measures in the FRC field. LPP has used neutron counts to help measure results in the DPF, with time of flight measurements providing some additional information.
I'm guessing the JET and some other Tokamak tests depended on neutron counts in their estimates of fusion output and Q ratio. The neutron counts don't tell you much about what is going on in the reactor. It does give a end result parameter that can be used to justify additional effort to find out what is going on with injection efficiency, density , confinement times, temperature and heating efficiency (mostly potential well depth in the Polywell), the type and location of fusions- core, diffuse , wall,; nature of fusions- beam- beam, beam- background, or beam- target (usually the the walls or non insulated grids)

Amateur fusioneers use neutron counts because it is again the easiest. If they have a good setup and results they have also sometimes done activation measurements (dependent on neutron driven transmutations). Some Japanese Fusor researchers have managed to measure energetic fusion produced protons or alphas (from D-He3 fusion) inside the reactor and have mapped the location of fusions (core, grid or walls).

Having said all this, it was the neutron counts at the end of WB6 tests that seemed to convince Bussard that the system would work.

Dan Tibbets
To error is human... and I'm very human.

crowberry
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Re: EMC2 news

Postby crowberry » Fri Sep 18, 2015 6:23 am


ladajo
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Re: EMC2 news

Postby ladajo » Fri Sep 18, 2015 12:23 pm

The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

Skipjack
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Re: EMC2 news

Postby Skipjack » Fri Sep 18, 2015 4:40 pm


ladajo
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Re: EMC2 news

Postby ladajo » Fri Sep 18, 2015 5:19 pm

From a research perspective, Q>1 is still theoretical. It will remain so until it is done.

Q>1 conditions have been seen, but conditions do not equal demonstrated Q>1.

As I am sure you know, science is the art of elimination. More specifically, the critical aspect is the elimination of those things we don't know we don't know until we are left with a plausible truth grounded in evidence of its existence. This evidence can be positive and negative in nature, where it shows that other truths can't be, and that the last truth standing is most likely the truth. This is but one (granted popular) validated framework of knowing among many.

This is what is lost on the Rossiclown blind faith fan club. Their main perspective being that the Rossiclown knows all, and thus doesn't have to prove it. This is a false framework.

If you want to take the layman's perspective, then an entire new reality opens up.
Choose. But once you have done so, then you must accept that someone who is using a different framework will have a different reality.
Just be careful as a layman, by definition, the frameworks chosen are uninformed/untested as a norm. The layman lacks informed and tested frameworks.
It is what makes the difference.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)

What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

Skipjack
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Re: EMC2 news

Postby Skipjack » Fri Sep 18, 2015 6:20 pm


ladajo
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Re: EMC2 news

Postby ladajo » Sat Sep 19, 2015 1:12 pm

The viable operations of D-D v. D-T v. P-B11 machines is really an engineering issue. They all have positive and negative aspects.
It is more likely that we will see a D-D/D-T hybrid as the first production plant. But that is not certain.
Even a P-B11 machine is going to have similar issues as D/T operations, it will just take longer to manifest.
It is also likely that a P-B11 machine is going to be comparatively physically bigger, which in turn magnifies the scope of the effects of the longer manifestation.
All the decay chains produce gamma, neutron, and other high energy particles. All of this have material (and personnel) considerations over time. Some are more immediate than others. Seen across the experimental approaches they all share some issues, each amplifies its own, and potentially suppresses others.
My point is that it is too soon to be debating which is best, when none of them have shown Q>1.
My other point is that any of the experimental approaches can from a physics perspective be adapted to burn any of the fuel types.
When you are still in the experimental stage, considerations about production plant design and operating costs is extremely premature.
While some thought is given to this during the science phase, at its fundamental roots this thought is about promoting funding, not directing science. And the two thought trains are not actually connected. I believe that this is where you are having difficulty in separating the wishful thinking attempting to generate support and funding, verses the actual spending of money to see if the core science can be validated. Normally the end result of the science looks very little (if at all in a number of cases) like the core science that supported it.
The first group to burn anything is going to gain knowledge exponentially faster than any other group that has burned nothing. That knowledge will help that group to understand branch and follow on science faster than the others as well. This implies that using the science hypothesis to validate Q>1 using the easiest possible fuel to do so is the smarter way to go. It is akin to the first time you build a multi-floor structure. If no-one has ever done it, and you are still unsure it can be done, why would you attempt to build 20 stories instead of two? You are adding complexity and resource expenditure against a lot of unknowns. This increases risk exponentially.
A more measured approach is more manageable, and you get to carry what you learned forward more effectively and efficiently.
One story build to two stories to ten stories to 20 stories to 50 stories to 100 stories...instead of attempting 100 stories right up front and more than likely failing at extreme risk for your ability to continue attempts.
Worrying about this is premature. And in my opinion, the more a plasma fusion group hypes up "going straight for the gold" the more inclined I am to believe they don't actually know what they are doing, or worse. If it was easy we would have figured it out long ago. For example, JT60 first argued achievement of conditions for Q>1 twenty years ago, yet still no-one has taken that and validated Q>1. Food for thought there, and also helps make my point about the risk of skipping steps because you think you are smarter than you are.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)

What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

bennmann
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Re: EMC2 news

Postby bennmann » Sat Sep 19, 2015 3:36 pm

It's "only" $30 million... This is a 3 step process.

1). Create a crowd funded SuperPAC to lobby the US government for more fusion development on the platform of your choice (kickstarter or Indiegogo).
2). Also start another crowd funded effort linked to the first but separate for the purposes of funding the $30 mil.
3). Eat popcorn as you watch them both echo chamber up well beyond $30mil. Use whichever one gets there first to fund the research because donators to SuperPACs are used to having their money diverted into other projects anyways for administrative purposes ("we needed to lower our office complex heating bill with some DT plasma shots").

ladajo
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Re: EMC2 news

Postby ladajo » Sat Sep 19, 2015 9:03 pm

Not a lot of appetite in the US for Fusion research, energy money is all focused on Solar and Wind. Might have something to do with the significant subsidies that prop them up and it being "free money" for investors.
If you are bored, take the time to look up subsidies $$ per KwH verses market price per KwH for wind and solar.
If you are unaware, the numbers will surprise you. I would also hope that they make you angry as a tax payer and seek to throw out the corruption in DC.
Talk about completely ignoring any consideration of EPRI viability criteria...
I will not post the numbers, as I want anyone who makes the effort to look feel vested in the effort.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)

What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

Skipjack
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Re: EMC2 news

Postby Skipjack » Sat Sep 19, 2015 10:00 pm


Skipjack
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Re: EMC2 news

Postby Skipjack » Sat Sep 19, 2015 10:10 pm


ladajo
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Re: EMC2 news

Postby ladajo » Sat Sep 19, 2015 10:22 pm

JT60 is integral to ITER as noted. However, I am unsure why you think they will do DT, is is being set up as a DD experiment as far as I know.
I have the research plans archived at the office, and I can look it up. Right now I can't be bothered to reach out and ask anyone.
But I am pretty sure it is H commissioning and DD ops for the SA series.
By the way, I am very happy that you are now pointing out that materials is the big issue. They have written checks that there is not money for on that account.
We will see if we get there.
And when I said "burning" it was in the context of Q>= 1. Another big knowledge leap yet to be made, even given over two decades of having shown conditions can be met.
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)

What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

Skipjack
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Re: EMC2 news

Postby Skipjack » Sat Sep 19, 2015 10:52 pm


ladajo
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Re: EMC2 news

Postby ladajo » Sun Sep 20, 2015 1:25 am

<giggle>
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)

What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

D Tibbets
Posts: 2775
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2008 6:52 am
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Re: EMC2 news

Postby D Tibbets » Sun Sep 20, 2015 4:06 am

I think a fusion Q >one has been demonstrated. The problem is the praticality of the aproach. This can also be applied to the ITER Tokamak approach.

The most difinative demonstration of fusion Q> one is hydrogen bombs. This approach though is not very praticle for energy production, though there was a proposal to set off bombs underground and to then pump water into the resulting hot bubble, and harvest the resulting steam rto generate electricity.

The other example is the NIF, sort of, if you ignore many aspects. The laser input that directly contributed to compressing and heating the DT fuel was less than the fusion output. This does ignore the laser energy that expended doing other things, like heating and exploding the horloium (sp?). Only a small portion of the laser input contributed to the DT compression and heating.

Any benchmark is open to interpretation.
A Q>one is not useful for energy production, actual performance would actually need to exceed a Q>3 or so for a net positive electricity generation via a steam cycle. As such, that is the real minimal target. For net profitable fusion electricity production a Q >5 may be needed.

In some situations a Q < one may suffice. If you burn 1 GW of coal thermal yield, and harvest 300 MW of electricity from this, then use this 300 MW to generate 200 MW of fusion power, you have a total heat yield of ~ 1.2 GW. A 20% gain. You might never catch up from a useful electricity standpoint,but if your primary goal is to heat the streets in Copenhagen with steam/ hot water pipes, you may have a gain- more street heating with less coal burned, smaller carbon footprint, etc. Of course the money cost of doing this may be stupendous, but from a physics standpoint you have a gain. It depends on how you utilize the produced heat and how much of it ends up as final useless heat.

Dan Tibbets
To error is human... and I'm very human.


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