Recovery.Gov Project Tracker

[mvanwink5]

I would more easily believe LM is making a particle beam weapon using the guise of energy research as a funding strategy. But, hey, the government would never do that, I realize that, I am just being paranoid.

[Carl White]

It's clear by now at least that it hasn't been an unqualified, run-away success.

[ladajo]

I don't think we know anything for sure yet.

[mvanwink5]

I don't think we know anything for sure yet.

GF can put up a nice website as they are nicely insulated with patents. FRC approach such as Tri-Alpha is an approach whose protection lies in hard won details, and so secrets of implementation are its protection = no website. Hellion is proof that others can enter the FRC arena. EMC2 is in a much worse position than Tri-Alpha as polywell patents are lost to history and the device is in the wild. CSI is proof of that. So, Ladajo's point is not unreasonable, crappy EMC2 website is a weak argument that EMC2 has major technical obstacles. Still, WB-8 should have given EMC2 the details and hard evidence needed to make the move to net fusion - if we take the Navy contract's planned steps to be reasonable, which is one more step than Bussard thought was needed (except to limp spine, bureaucrats with desks in low lit safe offices).

However, plasma is really extra nasty stuff, unpredictable at best. GF's efforts are to use explosions to achieve full scale plasma conditions without full scale high risk capital outlays. EMC2's only recourse is to build another interim device if risk adverse bureaucrat doubts persist. Bussard said you might as well build it at this point, models are not possible, so prove nothing. VC's might also balk with the reasoning that the Navy could change their mind, so the Navy in a way has poisoned the polywell ground just by being in the game (plus no patent protection).

So, it means these guys will wait for the Chinese to build a fleet of polywell powered aircraft carriers, then play catch up. Or wait for Tri-Alpha or a GF reactor and buy that and avoid the risk. Or, go the safe route, ignore the worthlessness of models and give EMC2 a little money to spend on models, after all, it provides political cover, no one can say it was dropped, right? Pass the buck, and in 5 years, the argument will be that the other guys must have had a reason not to go forward. Dead end for polywell. Bussard was wrong to trust bureaucrats over greedy VC's.

[mvanwink5]

I put my money on GF, as the 3 meter lead and lithium blanket solves the first wall problem. Moreover, if Tri-Alpha can achieve sufficient plasmoid compression for B-11, it should be easier for GF with D-D and D-T, and the stable chalice shaped plasmoid may be the final trick. EMC2 is just stuck in red flypaper tape, a dead end, at least until quantum computers with enough power emerge in another 10 years. Last horse in the fusion race that has to wait for university science department funding levels to be reached...

[mvanwink5]

The smart thing to do would be to fully fund all dark horses in the race, but we know such is too much reason. The only hope is for EMC2 to tell the Navy guys that polywell would make a great weapon, so fund it for purposes of power generation, but really fund it to make a great weapon.

[paperburn1]

Ok here is a question about GF and their plan. When firing a gun under water there is something called bubble bounce. the force of the gun blast makes a bubble but strangely the bubble will collapse and re form on it own several times.
something to do with Rayleigh-Plesset equation.
Could or would they be using this effect to help maintain the void in the center of their device.
Anyway the video is cool to watch and its a random idea that came to my head.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cp5gdUHF ... ubvTOHWTms at about min 6 he talks about it.

[ladajo]

Thinking on Mvanwink's posts.

It would seem that the most likely tell out of EMC2, outside of funding movements, would be any patent movement.

I find it hard to belive that as the most informed about non-ignition plasma fusion (an assumption from the continious work and live builds as compared to anyone else), EMC2 can not have figured out some things that others have not.

I cite Einstein's, "If it wasn't hard, we wouldn't call it science" and offer a ladajo corrollary, "If polywell was easy, everyone would be doing it". Ergo, something about it must be hard. More than meets the eye.

[Skipjack]

I put my money on GF, as the 3 meter lead and lithium blanket solves the first wall problem. Moreover, if Tri-Alpha can achieve sufficient plasmoid compression for B-11, it should be easier for GF with D-D and D-T, and the stable chalice shaped plasmoid may be the final trick. EMC2 is just stuck in red flypaper tape, a dead end, at least until quantum computers with enough power emerge in another 10 years. Last horse in the fusion race that has to wait for university science department funding levels to be reached...

I put my money on Helion. Similar process to Tri Alpha, but less ambitious (DT). They have a new prototype in the works too. So there is hope they will publish new results in the near future.

[D Tibbets]

ll is easy! The effort needed is modest, with the benefit of hindsight. The cost of equipping a lab with the necessary equipment and build a WB6 machine is no more than a few million dollars. Demonstrating Wiffleball formation, cusp confinement, Beta= 1 conditions is straight forward. Scaling data at the low end is easy (once you pass a threshold, probably near the WB6 level). Having said this , the devil is in the details, as Bussard said. The possibly useful , yet feeble efforts from some researchers with single turn and 10 turn electromagnets shows interest, but not much priority by anyone else. To push to WB8 levels is different, perhaps 10 times the cost. It is here that EMC2 is currently bogged down. I speculate that much of the effort currently expended at EMC2 is directed towards engineering issues and this may have much value when/ if a larger scale machine is pursued. This assumes on my part that they have nailed down scaling issues from ~ 1 to 8 thousand Gauss B fields, radii from ~ 0.3 to 0.6 meters, and potential wells from under 10 KV to perhaps over 20 KV . The graphs of losses, input requirements, densities, and finally actual fusion rates, would be fascinating to see. The trend of physics uncertainties due to any of many plasma properties and how they scale is another issue. The Polywell at its most basic levels is a simple machine, but then so is the Tokamak.

Keep in mind that all of this is based on publically available information. What is going on behind closed doors is anyone's guess.

The dense plasma focus is in a similar, if financially tighter, situation. There is promising physics, but challenging engineering issues that need to be addressed before further advancement is possible.

Why these relatively cheap physics efforts are not persued by a large body of eager University groups is a mystery, except to say that politics seems to be the dominate issue. Funding protection and funding risk taking aversion seem to be mutually supported mind sets in academia.

Again, all of this is in relation to what is known in the public domain only.

Dan Tibbets

[mvanwink5]

EMC2 WB-8 size is a worse case challenge. Big enough to require millions, small enough that losses require serious electron guns and very difficult diagnostics. This was Bussard's issue with that size of polywell. Difficulty in doing polywell at larger sizes is supposed to be easier. Trouble is the worry of too much cash and risk of no payback. Still, EMC2's diagnostics seems to have been greatly improved if we are to consider that paper (1.5 years ago?) using microwaves. The point is, a year ago the committee said go ahead. Now a year later FPDS would indicate that did not happen. Instead, the project continued until approved money, to the penny, was spent. The next step involves bigwigs, or committee of such (worse), sticking their necks out. It doesn't look like the combination of ass and imagination is there to move off dead center. Bussard should have known better, that going through the government was a dead end. He should have gone with the greedy VC's.

If Hellion can do it, Tri-Alpha can too. I would find it hard to believe Paul Allen's bunch would be so rigid to not go for 3 points if 7 can't be made. Furthermore, GF will work even if the 3 points can't be made. Problem with D-T and FRC (Hellion) is energy conversion without hardware self destruction, seems to me it is a critical issue for Hellion due to serious neutrons. Isn't that why TA is shooting for B-11 with the ability to steer the alphas and much fewer neutrons, not to mention conversion efficiency (if it works)?

[Skipjack]

If Hellion can do it, Tri-Alpha can too. I would find it hard to believe Paul Allen's bunch would be so rigid to not go for 3 points if 7 can't be made. Furthermore, GF will work even if the 3 points can't be made. Problem with D-T and FRC (Hellion) is energy conversion without hardware self destruction, seems to me it is a critical issue for Hellion due to serious neutrons. Isn't that why TA is shooting for B-11 with the ability to steer the alphas and much fewer neutrons, not to mention conversion efficiency (if it works)?

The burn chamber is located at a distance from the expensive equipment and is a very simple cylindrical part that can be easily replaced (unlike in tokamaks). It is also where the lithium blanket is for tritium breeding and where the power conversion hooks into (which is not less efficient than others that use the carnot cycle). This is one of the beautiful things about Helions design. It does not fight the problems, it just make them easily manageable.
PB11 like TA is trying to do is much harder, but you are right that conversion is easier.

[mvanwink5]

The burn chamber is located at a distance from the expensive equipment and is a very simple cylindrical part that can be easily replaced (unlike in tokamaks). It is also where the lithium blanket is for tritium breeding and where the power conversion hooks into (which is not less efficient than others that use the carnot cycle).

I haven't seen details of the business end of Helion's FRC, so thank you for that. Also, it has been a while since I checked their website, and it looks like they updated it this month (2014). For some reason I had missed this, "THE 4TH IN HELION’S SERIES OF GROUNDBREAKING PROTOTYPES IS NOW OPERATIONAL." So, maybe something will be reported this year.

2014 may be a good news year for the dark horses.

[ladajo]

The cost of equipping a lab with the necessary equipment and build a WB6 machine is no more than a few million dollars. Demonstrating Wiffleball formation, cusp confinement, Beta= 1 conditions is straight forward.

Dan, I think documented history says that it took EMC2 about $20 million to get where they are and years of effort. Granted they had to make due with a budget and did not have limited resources, and that surely slowed down progress to a degree. You can't keep talent if you keep cutting off funding.

As far as easy, I would say not. If polywell was easy everyone would be doing it, you know like fusors.
So far only a few folks have tried polywell, and the best they have done is show some sort of a well formation (which means some level of confinement) and made a few neutrons. But not anything demonstrating a continuous run, Q>=1 device yet.

There must be a reason this has not been done yet. Something that makes it hard that we don't know about in public.

I am guessing that EMC2 knows what is hard, and hopefully they have found a way to solve it.
We shall see.
I am going to watch for two clues. Funding and/or patent.

[mvanwink5]

Ladajo,
The $20M was to figure out the basic configuration, WB-1 to WB-6. But the basic machine known to work, though not that much money in the scheme of things, is way too much money for the amateur fusor crowd. Machine magnet size, diagnostics, electron gun power, grid power is all way beyond Famulous pocket change. On the other hand CSI has made a serious effort with much smaller cash than WB-8, and only are asking for $1M to make the next progress step. If anything is parked in the middle of the polywell highway it is inability to meaningfully patent critical components, cost to build a net fusion machine, the Navy funding itself, plus secrecy of results. A VC must expect an investment payback. The way Bussard did things has made that very difficult.

EMC2 must be waiting for the Navy to make a decision, and the decision delay likely means the next step is "all in" bet. That takes guts as the reason you build a prototype is to see what happens. There has to be a first one built.

So, you won't see patents. The only low risk next move is an attempt at full scale modeling, maybe some more WB-8 diagnostic runs. Possibly a new proposal well short of WB-D cash. B-11 would be too visible and ring the bell.

You don't suppose the Navy has burned too many high tech project bridges, that polywell is viewed as one to many to ask for? So keep it alive until the time is right to ask?

I think it boils down to astrology and politics.