Since I have two minutes, here are my humble predictions

If polywell fusion is developed, in what ways will the world change for better or worse? Discuss.

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Skipjack
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Since I have two minutes, here are my humble predictions

Postby Skipjack » Tue Oct 07, 2008 9:09 pm

These are provided that the Bussard Fusion Reactor meets all expectations.
It will take some 10 to 15 years until the first reactors go online. Meanwhile some more improvements will be made to the thing.
General Electrics, Mitsubishi and Siemens file several patents for improving the efficiency of BFRs.
China copies all of them anyway and does not give a darn.
The Japanese work on minaturization and automatization.
After 18 years prices for electricity will fall to the magical 3 cents KWh. This is the point when even with the currently inefficient and expensive batteries, electric cars get a lot more interesting for the average person (at that point it really costs almost nothing to drive that car).
The first ones to go all electric will be public transportation. It is already done with subways and trains as well as "streetcars" (here in Austria we have little trains that go on the street, hope thats the right word), but by then busses will go all electric too. It is cheaper and busses can easily be left to charge for a longer time.
Wallmart offers a "charge your car for free, while you shop".
On the prospect of plummeting gas prices speculators sell their shares in oil like crazy, middle eastern countries produce more oil trying to get it all sold before its worth nothing anymore.
This causes oilprices to fall to 30USD/barrel or below.
This will have the effect that for another while it will stay economic to have gasoline cars, at least for another while.
Shares of companies that produce (? mine? extract? no idea...) B11 will skyrocket. It will be a "Bor - Com" boom as some will call it.

In 25 years from now all larger ships will be equipped with BFRs, all ships that would have been nuclear powered today anyway. That includes aircraft carriers, large warships, submarines and also superfreighters and supertankers (there will still be oil produces and consumed all over the world, this change wont go THAT fast).
First preliminary design studies for BFR powered space ships will emerge. Probably by Lockheed Martin or Boeing. 1 year later Burt Rutain rolls out Space Ship 10 which is powered by a BFR and transports 400 willing tourists on an all inclusive tripp arround the moon. Just kidding, Burt Rutain will probably be to old by then, so it will be Elon Musk who actually does that ;)

15 years and multiple delays and cost overruns later Lockheed and Boeing will finally have their BFR powered spaceships ready too. But NASA wont be interested anymore, they have been buying rides on Burts, ahem, Elon's Spaceships for the last ten years.
40 years from now Electric cars will be the norm, gas powered cars will be something for enthusiasts and weirdos. Some rich people will proudly drive their oldtimers arround the block on sundays. They will have to drive an hour to find a gasstation though, but if you own a Rolls Royce, you are the time man...
Thanks to low demand for gas, gas prices will be lower than ever. That also means that flying will be cheaper than ever before. Most airplanes will still be very much like they are today and powered by kerosine. There will be some studies on how to use polywells or electricity for air transport. Some airlines will also use hydrogen since the cheap electricity makes hydrogen production more cost effective and hydrogen more competitive to kerosine.
Some maybe not so good sideeffects will include the total decline of the solar power and windpower industry.

So what do you think?
Realistic? Way off?

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Postby JohnP » Wed Oct 08, 2008 5:50 pm


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Postby Skipjack » Wed Oct 08, 2008 6:28 pm


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Postby Skipjack » Wed Oct 08, 2008 6:37 pm


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Postby MSimon » Wed Oct 08, 2008 6:47 pm


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Postby Scupperer » Wed Oct 08, 2008 9:08 pm

Image

~3 days power in a can!

(not my best work; I'll clean it up later).
Perrin Ehlinger

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Postby JohnP » Wed Oct 08, 2008 10:05 pm


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Postby Skipjack » Wed Oct 08, 2008 11:36 pm


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Postby choff » Thu Oct 09, 2008 3:54 am

If it works, this time will be looked back upon as the end of the stone age and the beginning of the golden age.
CHoff

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Postby blaisepascal » Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:36 am


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Re: Since I have two minutes, here are my humble predictions

Postby Roger » Fri Oct 10, 2008 1:27 am

I like the p-B11 resonance peak at 50 KV acceleration. In2 years we'll know.

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Postby Skipjack » Fri Oct 10, 2008 11:19 am


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BFRs on ships...

Postby Mumbles » Fri Oct 10, 2008 1:08 pm


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Postby Skipjack » Fri Oct 10, 2008 2:36 pm


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Turn-Key operation... No?

Postby Mumbles » Fri Oct 10, 2008 3:41 pm



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