Polywell and Peak Oil

If polywell fusion is developed, in what ways will the world change for better or worse? Discuss.

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joedead
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Polywell and Peak Oil

Postby joedead » Tue Aug 12, 2008 3:39 pm

Hello fellow fusion friends,

I enjoy this forum immensely; there are many intelligent people here who post well-thought out responses. There is, however, a topic I would like to discuss more and hear more opinions about: peak oil production. It has been touch upon before but I would like to bring it up again.

Peak oil and fusion: thoughts? comments?

I found this forum through a self-proclaimed "doomer" peak oil enthusiast. With so much negative to say about the future of energy, polywell fusion seemed to be a ray of light in the future. I'd like to hear what other member think about energy production and the future, specifically if polywell fusion doesn't yield positive results.




Oh, and be kind. This is my first post.

MSimon
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Postby MSimon » Tue Aug 12, 2008 4:14 pm

Peak oil is a concept developed to increase the profits of those controlling the resources.

America has enough oil in oil shales to supply the world for another hundred years or two. Canada has 1.5X (in tar sands) what America has. Plenty of oil to do a gentle transition.

The trouble is government has made that oil off limits. The same for oil along America's coasts.

We are not at geophysical peak oil. We are at political peak oil.

BTW fusion reactors would greatly lower the costs of extracting and processing such oil. There is no need for the poor to suffer during our transition away from oil as a motor fuel.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

joedead
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Postby joedead » Tue Aug 12, 2008 4:48 pm

Peak oil is a concept developed to increase the profits of those controlling the resources.
America has enough oil in oil shales to supply the world for another hundred years or two. Canada has 1.5X (in tar sands) what America has. Plenty of oil to do a gentle transition.
The trouble is government has made that oil off limits. The same for oil along America's coasts.
We are not at geophysical peak oil. We are at political peak oil.


Oh boy.

Are you kidding? Are you familiar with the theory at all?

Peak oil was a theory developed by geologists to predict production. Furthermore, oil shale IS NOT economically viable in the same sense crude oil is. I'm really disappointed. You normally come off as being better informed.



Would it be worthwhile for me to tackle this issue point by point?
There are quite a few misconception in your first post I'd like to address.

joedead
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Postby joedead » Tue Aug 12, 2008 4:57 pm

Offshore oil: Too little, too late. Granted, no one knows what's out there. Even a best case senario would only offset the peak by a few years.

I should probably pull data out of peer-reviewed journals, but I'll start with this. I'll be honest, it's from ASPO, so you could argue it's biased.

http://www.aspo-usa.com/index.php?optio ... &Itemid=91







Thoughts? Comments? Please read the entire article before responding.

joedead
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QUICK NOTE!

Postby joedead » Tue Aug 12, 2008 5:00 pm

Before I dragg this off into a pointless argument, I'll stop. But I'd still like to hear more opinions, agree or not!



For now.

:mrgreen:

MSimon
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Postby MSimon » Tue Aug 12, 2008 5:33 pm

Peak oil is an economic theory.

It is true that $20 oil has peaked. We are very far from the peak of $100 oil.

BTW if we don't know what is out there how can you be sure it is not much?

You will note that proven reserves have increased with the increase of the price of oil. Proven reserves are higher now than they were 20 years ago. In fact they are much higher in the USA because the last DOE survey was based on $50 a bbl.

When will oil be uneconomic? When horses are cheaper. We have a long way to go for that.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

MSimon
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Postby MSimon » Tue Aug 12, 2008 5:41 pm

Look at this another way. When Saudi oil runs out US oil output will be increasing due to the fact that oil will be priced higher.

The Hubert curve depends on competing with Saudi oil. As long as Saudi oil is cheaper American oil output will continue to decline.

If/when American oil is cheaper American output will increase. Assuming politicians don't intervene.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

djolds1
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Postby djolds1 » Tue Aug 12, 2008 9:17 pm

MSimon wrote:Peak oil is an economic theory.

It is true that $20 oil has peaked. We are very far from the peak of $100 oil.

BTW if we don't know what is out there how can you be sure it is not much?

You will note that proven reserves have increased with the increase of the price of oil. Proven reserves are higher now than they were 20 years ago. In fact they are much higher in the USA because the last DOE survey was based on $50 a bbl.

When will oil be uneconomic? When horses are cheaper. We have a long way to go for that.


http://www.ibdeditorial.com/IBDArticles ... 4360938478

The Interior Department report stated: "Resource estimates are highly dependent on the current knowledge base, which has not been updated in 20 to 40 years for areas under congressional moratorium . . ."

The Minerals Management Service estimates there are 10 billion barrels waiting off the California coast.

"California could actually start producing new oil within a year," the Bernstein report said, because the oil is in shallow water, and drilling platforms have been there since before the moratoria.

In 1970, a mere 17% of offshore wells struck oil. By 1997 that figure was up to 48%.

With even newer 4-D surveying techniques using satellites, about 70% of 4-D wells find oil. These new techniques allow us to find more oil more quickly with minimal environmental impact.
Vae Victis

BSPhysics
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Postby BSPhysics » Tue Aug 12, 2008 9:19 pm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale_economics

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tar_sands

I know, I know, Wikipedia is not THE authority on all issues but I've casually checked many of the citations and at first glance it's at least in the ballpark. But...MSimon you couldn't be more spot on. There is enough proven/unproven reserves, oil shale, tar sands, and coal to oil to make enough gasoline to power the world for centuries. WE ARE NOT RUNNING OUT OF OIL ANYTIME SOON.

Politically, the issues surround the price we are willing to pay, the environmental awareness, and the security of the country. In the USA, the environmental lobbyists and special interests have hijacked the best solutions and continue to impoverish the lower class.

If BFR's come on line in the next decade, right around the time batteries/supercapacitors mature, this debate will gradually move to the history books anyway. But, in the meantime, lets spend our oil money on American companies, secure the value of the dollar, strengthen the lower class, and stop financing the very people who hate our guts.



BS

joedead
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Postby joedead » Tue Aug 12, 2008 9:41 pm

WE ARE NOT RUNNING OUT OF OIL ANYTIME SOON.



:roll:


This statement is NOT HELPING YOUR CASE, ONLY MAKING YOU SOUND UNINFORMED, and IS SPOT OFF.....

Where does the theory of peak oil say we are running out of oil, dammnit?

PEAK OIL DOES NOT MEAN WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF OIL, ONLY THAT PRODUCTION WILL.

Try reading:

Nonrenewable Resources. Vol. 7, No. 2, 1998
An Assessment of Oil Supply and Its Implications for
Future Prices
Danilo J. Santini t

and


Natural Resources Research,Vol. 13,No. 4, December 2004
Hubbert’s Petroleum Production Model: An Evaluation
and Implications forWorld Oil Production Forecasts
Alfred J. Cavallo1


as to better aquaint yourself with this theory....




Anyways, glad to see so many strong opinions! I'll be back later, but rather than let this be dragged into a cat fight, is there anyone here who thinks that polywell fusion could be replacement for fossil fuels in our lifetime?

Discuss!!!!! I would like to hear well-informed, well though out opinions.

joedead
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Postby joedead » Tue Aug 12, 2008 9:44 pm

Peak oil is an economic theory.


Let's resize this debate to Hubberts theory.

Since people here seem to like wikipedia, here's the link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak_theory





Will be back again soon! Glad to have so many replies and no one suggesting I get banned, lol.

MSimon
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Postby MSimon » Tue Aug 12, 2008 10:07 pm

PEAK OIL DOES NOT MEAN WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF OIL, ONLY THAT PRODUCTION WILL.

Sure production will peak when 1/2 the oil is gone. We are not there yet.

We are at a peak of $20 oil. At $100 we could ramp up production for quite some time before reaching a peak.

The current production limits are politically driven not geologically drive. Sure we many not discover many new two trillion barrel fields. However, we are not exploiting the two trillion barrel fields we know about. One in the USA and the other in Canada.

And what happens if BFR energy comes in at the cost we expect? We could very well have $20 a bbl oil again from oil shale and tar sands.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

joedead
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Postby joedead » Tue Aug 12, 2008 10:15 pm

Sure production will peak when 1/2 the oil is gone. We are not there yet.


But that's not what the theory states. It does not peak when half the oil is gone, it peaks when the vast majority of easy to reach, easy to refine oil has been consumed. Even biased organizations like ASPO state that there is more oil in the ground then we could ever pull out.

Again, peak oil does not mean we're running out of oil, or that we have used more than half of the earths reserves. It states that production will diminish after a point. Even the USGS and EIA (fairly conservative organizations) don't deny that oil production will peak, they just debate over when it will. (as in, post 2030 estimates, as opposed to the ASPO, which figures more like right about now, give or take a few years.)

Helius
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Postby Helius » Tue Aug 12, 2008 11:12 pm

We're at peak oil no matter what we do short of massive extraction subsidy that would cripple the rest of the economy, deep offshore oil and Canadian sludge nonwithstanding. Production will fall off, and Oil cost will trend to more expensive.
I'll bet though that with BFRs (or something that could generate prodigious quantity of Hydrogen) we could hydrogenate Biomass in high pressure, high heat Oxygen free vessels to end up with a liquidy goo that could pass as heavy Canadian crude. :lol: I think though that if such power cores were available, such as BFRs, there would be better options. Oil as *the* transportation king needs to see the end of his reign. Sure we need to drill, drill, drill, but we also need to research, research, research.

MSimon
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Postby MSimon » Tue Aug 12, 2008 11:22 pm

joedead wrote:
Sure production will peak when 1/2 the oil is gone. We are not there yet.


But that's not what the theory states. It does not peak when half the oil is gone, it peaks when the vast majority of easy to reach, easy to refine oil has been consumed. Even biased organizations like ASPO state that there is more oil in the ground then we could ever pull out.

Again, peak oil does not mean we're running out of oil, or that we have used more than half of the earths reserves. It states that production will diminish after a point. Even the USGS and EIA (fairly conservative organizations) don't deny that oil production will peak, they just debate over when it will. (as in, post 2030 estimates, as opposed to the ASPO, which figures more like right about now, give or take a few years.)


OK. That is fair. Now factor in that what was once hard is now easy. Like drilling in shallow water.

Or factor in that with nukes (fission or fusion) shale oil could be much easier.

So easy depends a lot on technology. And politics. Solving the technology problem is a lot easier than solving the political problem. We have about 1/2 the world throwing up their hands and saying "What's the use? We are doomed." I find that answer unacceptable.

Fortunately 60+% of adult Americans want to give drilling a chance and Madame Speaker and the Anointed One are giving way. Yeee. Haaaa.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.


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