Polywell Visions: Politics

If polywell fusion is developed, in what ways will the world change for better or worse? Discuss.

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cksantos
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Polywell Visions: Politics

Postby cksantos » Mon Jun 21, 2010 9:56 pm

Given the potential of this technology, it would seem that it could put America back on the track as the worlds only superpower. Right now we face competition from around the world on all stages of economic competition.

Polywell will enable increases in productivity/GDP/population not seen since the beginning of the age of oil. Anyone familiar with peak oil should be familiar with peak population as well, as the exponential modern population growth follows the same curve as gallons of oil extracted per day. Thus, peak oil should mean peak population, unless polywell or some other fusion steps in.

This means that whatever the intentions of EMC2 in terms of disclosure, they are irrelevant to the national security concerns. Public disclosure of EMC2 data (if it works) would be catastrophic to US long range planning.
Polywell would destabilize the political landscape so much that it will most likely:

1. be sequestered initially for America only, their closest allies decades later, and the world in 50 to 100 years.

2. be classified for DECADES until the technology can provide unequivocal American superiority.

3. be transfered to multinational company/ies who will then found a NWO.

MSimon
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Postby MSimon » Tue Jun 22, 2010 12:27 am

It is not just raw power. It is culture, will, and the competence of leaders.

Think about one of the key elements of US geopolitical power. We don't hold grudges and once our enemies surrender we raise them up. In addition the USA for the most part has no territorial ambitions.

You will not find that culture in any other major power on earth today.

We pay for our wars by making former enemies customers/suppliers. This is rather unusual in history. Perhaps even unique.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

Torulf2
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Postby Torulf2 » Tue Jun 22, 2010 12:37 am

The population not longer grew exponential. It’s grown slower and slower.
You get peak population from low birth rate. But this demand relative high energy use.
http://www.gapminder.org/videos/what-st ... on-growth/

MSimon
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Postby MSimon » Tue Jun 22, 2010 12:45 am

Once Polywell goes on a ship the cat is out of the bag. No country of any significance will be more than 4 or 5 years away from a working device.

There is enough open source information to make replication just a matter of time.

I have estimated that a 1 meter (coil size) superconducting test device could be built for about $10 to $15 million. A power producer could be done for about $200 million in research costs. All it takes is brains and a little money.

Who could do it? (this is a short list - the actual list would be much larger)

1. China
2. Russia
3. Germany
4. France
5. The UK
6. Ireland
7. Spain
8. Canada
9. Australia
10. Japan
11. Brazil
12. India
13. Indonesia
14. Poland
15. Italy
16. Finland
17. Sweden
18. Pakistan
19. Indonesia
etc.

Other smaller less developed countries could band together.
The Navy understands the geostrategic implications - i.e. cheap reliable energy tamps down a lot of discontent.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

cksantos
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Postby cksantos » Tue Jun 22, 2010 1:29 am

MSimon wrote:
Think about one of the key elements of US geopolitical power. We don't hold grudges and once our enemies surrender we raise them up. In addition the USA for the most part has no territorial ambitions.



I agree to some extent, however we don't really raise them up so much as burden them with debt ala IMF etc.

We have no CURRENT ambitions for territory, however politics here in Hawaii is the best case of america's territorial ambitions in the not so distant past. The land here is mostly stolen from native Hawaiians, who have not received the same recognition/apology/land that other native Americans did.

On a side note though who needs territory now when an international cooperation exploits the resources of others without the political baggage.

I think it is positive to note that it can be done by others. But if we are ~10 years ahead (assuming no disclosure until a ship has one) before anyone gets started it will be hard to compete with our 2nd, 3rd, etc. generation powerplants. Even a few years jump start the US will be hard to catch given the attributes that you have pointed out in our culture. The US was the dominant producer/consumer of oil for a long time before anyone caught up, the same will likely happen this time. With side benefits trickling down to our allies sooner than others.

Polywell on a spaceship is out of everyones budget except the US. Which could mean the first asteroid mining ship will be a US ship. With asteroids comes dirt cheap platinum for hydrogen fuel cells, lithium for batts, ect.

On a side not just because a polywell goes on a ship doesent mean anyone will know about it for years. Could very well go black such as U-2, SR-71 ect. Navy announces polywell was a failure and continues black developmentm until it works, and is on a ship. Then 5-10 years after THAT it gets declassified.

I guess what I'm trying to say is it is likely we will use this technology to reassert our global dominance rather than cooperatively sharing development globally. This is the navy we are talking about, not the ITER.

MSimon
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Postby MSimon » Tue Jun 22, 2010 1:50 am

You assume the Navy doesn't understand the geostategic advantage of cheap, secure, reliable energy for everyone.

Navy people are not local thinkers. They are global thinkers. They run a global logistics and force projection operation.

Let me add that ITER type reactors will NEVER produce cheap energy. And then there is the neutron economy problem. An ITER type device must capture 90% or better of the generated neutrons in a Lithium blanket. That is very difficult. In fact the engineering (it is an engineering problem) hasn't even started and the blanket engineering has been cut from the current ITER budget to keep costs down.

IF Polywell works it will be on its 2nd or 3rd generation by the time toks are completing their 0th generation.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

MSimon
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Postby MSimon » Tue Jun 22, 2010 2:02 am

As to Hawaii. You are lucky the US captured the island before the Japanese did. Those mothers were some hard core racists. Still are. The lot of Japanese colonies was a very unhappy one.

You are looking for a perfect world. The only choice you really get is better/worse.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

cksantos
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Postby cksantos » Tue Jun 22, 2010 2:06 am

I understand your perspective, my issue is your assumption that polywell/cheap energy is stabilizing. I guess I would like to hear more detail on how polywell might stabilize the global status quo, assuming declining US superiority and the rising status of EU, China, India, Russia, etc.

In support of stabilization I think polywell could become the vehicle to establish the US currency as the world reserve currency for the foreseeable future.

In support of destabilization, it will unbalance the dance of mutually assured destruction with Russia. They are already whining about Poland's missile battery which seems to be for EU protection from Iran, not a Russian/American Armageddon. Polywell would conceivably open pandoras box of mass destruction weapons, whos very existance would scare the shit out of the Kremlin.

PS living in Hawaii makes me biased towards utopia and perfect worlds, because it is partially cloudy 75 degrees here right now and on my way home i might jump in the water at the beach.... lol

And I agree ITER is ridiculous unless you are on their payroll, then it is transformational and revolutionary. lol

MSimon
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Postby MSimon » Tue Jun 22, 2010 9:03 am

I guess I would like to hear more detail on how polywell might stabilize the global status quo, assuming declining US superiority and the rising status of EU, China, India, Russia, etc.


The US is a status quo power. The others that you mention all fall into that category more or less.

The problem for the others is who do they trust to manage freedom of the seas etc.? My guess is that because of culture and the behavior of the US over the last 70 or so years the US is the only candidate. I'm sure all of them would like a somewhat weaker US. But not so weak as to have them at each others throats. It is bad for business. And business is the game going forward.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

MSimon
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Postby MSimon » Tue Jun 22, 2010 9:11 am

PS living in Hawaii makes me biased towards utopia and perfect worlds, because it is partially cloudy 75 degrees here right now and on my way home i might jump in the water at the beach.... lol


And then comes 7 Dec. and living in paradise is not quite as good a deal as it once seemed. Or 11 Sept. if NY is your favored venue.

I can see your point though. In fact I could see it a LOT better if you sent some pics of bikini clad ladies. Nude beaches even better. I'm a regular DOM (Not D&S. Please! Dirty Old Man).
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

cksantos
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Postby cksantos » Tue Jun 22, 2010 10:03 am

MSimon wrote: I'm sure all of them would like a somewhat weaker US.


My point exactly, but an american polywell with a 10 - 20 year head start would make a stronger US, thus upsetting the balance of power between the said countries. This is a political destabilizing force unless the a US fusion multinational sell reactors to all the said countries. But selling our classified Navy technology to foreign countries does not sound like anything the Navy has done before. (correct me if I'm wrong here)

It would also cause multinational oil companies to lose money and by extension jobs, making realistic fusion politically difficult for our current generation of leaders in congress. (unless its built by a preexisting multinational corp, which brings up the question of could EMC2 be bought by GE or some other corporation for post-net fusion fusors.)

A more silent aspect of the political problem is the socio-economic status quo problem. The political status quo is underpinned by the capitalist oil based mentality.

The horizon spill is a perfect example of political hypocrisy that pervades the senate to this day. The horizon oil spill not being nuked or bombed as both Russia and the Army Core of Engineers respectively recommended when the spill started is because BP wants to keep the well in production. To me this is criminal, and our leaders are asking BP why they haven't fixed it yet. It shouldn't be up to BP it should be tasked by POTUS and backed by congress to the military engineers. BP is trying untested methods when the russians nuked there well and it worked great. Anyway my point is these are the people who will sh** on polywell, even if it works great or more accurately, when it works great.

The solutions I see are:

a. Elect people who support alternative energy production in general as they are more likely to support polywell.

b. Keep it off the radar for a few years until the technology is so mature that it is not practical to start from scratch on indigenous polywell (any guesses on the timeline for WB-D 100MW to 1GW+) but rather most lease them from DOE, DOD, or US multinational.

c. Get some billionaire to offer his fortunes to EMC2 employees in return for their employment in his new company EMC2. The patents are expired, so is it possible to bribe the intellectual capital into private industry? Or is there some kind of classified research laws to prevent this?

PMN1
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Re: Polywell Visions: Politics

Postby PMN1 » Tue Jun 22, 2010 12:19 pm

cksantos wrote:
1. be sequestered initially for America only, their closest allies decades later, and the world in 50 to 100 years.

2. be classified for DECADES until the technology can provide unequivocal American superiority.

3. be transfered to multinational company/ies who will then found a NWO.


I'd like to know how you are going to keep it a secret once a working system has been proved.

WizWom
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Postby WizWom » Tue Jun 22, 2010 2:51 pm

Power is the single largest determiner of quality of life in todays technological society.

Quality of life is the best determiner of peacefulness... content populations do not become terrorists.
Wandering Kernel of Happiness

ladajo
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Postby ladajo » Tue Jun 22, 2010 3:33 pm

MSimon wrote:Once Polywell goes on a ship the cat is out of the bag. No country of any significance will be more than 4 or 5 years away from a working device.

There is enough open source information to make replication just a matter of time.

I have estimated that a 1 meter (coil size) superconducting test device could be built for about $10 to $15 million. A power producer could be done for about $200 million in research costs. All it takes is brains and a little money.

Who could do it? (this is a short list - the actual list would be much larger)

1. China
2. Russia
3. Germany
4. France
5. The UK
6. Ireland
7. Spain
8. Canada
9. Australia
10. Japan
11. Brazil
12. India
13. Indonesia
14. Poland
15. Italy
16. Finland
17. Sweden
18. Pakistan
19. Indonesia
etc.

Other smaller less developed countries could band together.
The Navy understands the geostrategic implications - i.e. cheap reliable energy tamps down a lot of discontent.



The real question is who on the list above is already on a Real Program to build/test the theory? And the corrollary, how far along are they?

MirariNefas
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Postby MirariNefas » Tue Jun 22, 2010 7:41 pm

You can't keep it a secret or maintain it within borders for 10-20 years if you start plucking them down for the power grid, and we'd derive the biggest benefit by having it power our grid. I don't think the US strategy is to dominate militarily (well, we do have a very strong military, but not so much by having super secret technologies as by having super expensive ones; anyone can develop stealth craft and supercruise, but no one can afford it). Our strategy is to be rich, and classifying the existence of a polywell (and therefore not protecting it with patents) would not help that.

Yes, governments are bad about respecting patents for military technology, and everybody will start putting them on ships. But if General Polywell started selling units overseas to the civilian market, nobody has the right to complain and build their own. They'd fund development programs, but respect patent laws and buy their units legally. And when the patents wear off... General Polywell will have the patents on better third generation plants, so that even as competitors enter the market we'd maintain the highest market share. We'd all get the power generation, but US companies would get the business.

Polywell on a spaceship is out of everyones budget except the US. Which could mean the first asteroid mining ship will be a US ship. With asteroids comes dirt cheap platinum for hydrogen fuel cells, lithium for batts, ect.


Right around when the Falcon 9 launched, South Korea was trying to launch something too. Government funded launch system, using technology proliferated from Russia... and still failed both tries. We're so far ahead that even our private tech startups are the best in the world. We wouldn't need government run launch vehicles to dominate. We'd just need a few export restrictions and fees, and let our companies run wild. Our companies would launch the payloads of other countries. Our companies would sell them all asteroid materials (after paying export taxes, of course). A few companies in other countries would become competitive, but there wouldn't be many and they'd enter the market later. Everybody would have access to the space business, but we'd get the biggest market share and our government would be sitting on the taxes from the biggest companies. We can do everything out in the open and still skew business and economic development in favor of the country who first developed the technology.


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