Ice Age - A few of you would be interested in this

Jeff Peachman · Post by **Jeff Peachman** » Fri Nov 14, 2008 12:02 am

I know that ever since I've been here, people like MSimon have been saying that we're more likely to go into an ice age than kill ourselves with global warming. Well, I found this article about that.

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/ ... very-long/

KitemanSA · Post by **KitemanSA** » Fri Nov 14, 2008 3:56 am

Bring on the Polywells, we'll need the heat output!!!

drmike · Post by **drmike** » Fri Nov 14, 2008 4:17 am

I like the "geological near future". 5 to 10 kyr fits that description!

Thanks for posting, most interesting.

Roger · Post by **Roger** » Sat Nov 15, 2008 3:05 am

Jeff, a failure of the thermohaline (Conveyor Ocean Currents) might signal such an event. Many computer models show an ice age is very possible.

djolds1 · Post by **djolds1** » Sat Nov 15, 2008 3:57 am

Roger wrote:Jeff, a failure of the thermohaline (Conveyor Ocean Currents) might signal such an event. Many computer models show an ice age is very possible.

The Little Ice Age lines up well with the Wolf, Sporer, and Maunder Solar Minima. The intervening Maxima were not high.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Carb ... labels.svg

Computer models can barely predict weather 10 days out, and we are to believe predictions 100+ years out??

Duane

Skipjack · Post by **Skipjack** » Sat Nov 15, 2008 5:00 pm

weather != climate

Jeff Peachman · Post by **Jeff Peachman** » Sat Nov 15, 2008 7:19 pm

I'm suspending judgment. This is totally outside of my field, and if the experts can't agree, then my opinion has no credibility.

I'll just support the fact that an open discussion needs to continue on the topic, ensuring that some scientists who believe in global warming religiously don't overpower those making rational observations...

MSimon · Post by **MSimon** » Sat Nov 15, 2008 7:29 pm

The computer models used to predict climate are very shoddy. The PDO has been well known for some time and yet it was not included in the model so the current cooling trend (expected by the modelers to last through at least 2015) was not predicted. Note: if PDO is that significant the last 30 years of warming may have been almost all PDO and CO2 may not be significant.

What else are they leaving out?

A lot of folks think it is all a wallet extraction scheme. Considering that Al Gore is looking to make the big bucks from CO2 trading and Hansen has been associated with the CO2 traders at Lehman Bros., I'd say they were suspect from an interest point of view. Just as certain politicians get tarred for connections to the oil industry. Fair is fair.

rcain · Post by **rcain** » Sat Nov 15, 2008 9:12 pm

Another ice age cannot occur unless humans go extinct.

from J Hansen, NASA - http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/ ... l-is-nigh/

someone also commented how fragmentary climatology was a a science - which surprises me.

as to the pecuniary nature of CO2 emissions/tariffs, its my understanding that the mechanism was purposefully designed that way to ensure a 'positive' commercial imperative/interest: the net effect of the whole being more important than the total costs born and yet further offset by gains in secondary markets. of course, it still requires an even playing field and majority participation to work - still working on that.

i think one of the most significant aspects of climate change not yet addressed is that of human migration and economics - thinking about things like food production, drinking water, population density, etc - how people will be affected, directly, significantly, on mass and within very short timescales in the event that/when the conveyor/gulf stream flips.

a lot of focus seems to be on phasing out coal. shame there seems to be no such thing as clean coal (that is also economical).

MSimon · Post by **MSimon** » Sun Nov 16, 2008 7:29 am

shame there seems to be no such thing as clean coal (that is also economical).

We have clean coal and it is economical. Now if you mean CO2 free coal that is another story.

However if CO2 is not making a significant contribution to climate (look at the water vapor multiplier (WVM) where most of the effect is in the models) then - no worries.

BTW as the estimates for the direct effect of CO2 on climate have declined over the years the water vapor multiplier has increased enough to more than compensate. Yet the effect of water vapor on climate is more poorly understood than CO2.

Some scientists put the WVM at 1.1 and the "we're doomed" folks put it at 3 to 5. And yet the science is not yet good enough to tell us which is correct. Based on this we are going to gut the economies of the first world or pass feel good laws and then ignore them.

Of course China and India are laughing up their sleeves and ignoring the whole deal. Smart folks.

MSimon · Post by **MSimon** » Sun Nov 16, 2008 7:33 am

The conveyor/gulf stream flipping has been discredited.

djolds1 · Post by **djolds1** » Sun Nov 16, 2008 9:17 am

MSimon wrote:The conveyor/gulf stream flipping has been discredited.

Cite?

Duane

MSimon · Post by **MSimon** » Sun Nov 16, 2008 11:32 am

djolds1 wrote:
MSimon wrote:The conveyor/gulf stream flipping has been discredited.
Cite?

Duane

http://www.eeweek.org/assets/Lynn%20Che ... 0Pages.pdf

It is cyclic. Of course there is the usual caveat - "Global warming could....."

BTW I did a post a while back on this at "Power and Control" where the theory was posited by one group that global warming would make oceans saltier while another group said it would make oceans less salty.

You see - what ever happens or does not happen - global warming is the cause. Very convenient. And it increases the odds of getting grant money. What is not to like?

In an Ice Age? Global Warming did it. The Climate is too hot? Global Warming did it. It is now the Climate theory of everything.

In a way Global Warming serves the purpose once occupied by God. Instead of God controlling everything now it is Global Warming. And man's part in all this? As always he is evil. Not to be trusted.

Global Warming is the Tokamak of Climate Science. It sucks up all the money. With very little left over for other ideas.

Nanos · Post by **Nanos** » Sun Nov 16, 2008 12:55 pm

FX [ notices MSimon hits the nail on the head ]

When I read things like this:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2 ... -first-elf

And chat to greens who appear to see no middle ground other than anything beyond living naked in the trees again, and even then.. I do worry that the next wave of terrorists will seek to be destructive in our world in their effort to make it a better place.

I had hoped by now that computer games might fill the gap we as a species seem to need to fill our blood lust, once it was war, now its still war, isn't it about time we went to virtual war and stopped hurting ourselves with our good intentions..

(As I think you said in a previous post, its easier to destroy than create, what hope do we have..)

MSimon · Post by **MSimon** » Sun Nov 16, 2008 4:33 pm

nanos,

In re: your link:

http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2008/11/jonah.html

It is all about liberal fascism. Mass murder for the greater good.

And just so you don't think I'm letting some on the right off the hook:

http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/200 ... lican.html

Huckabee was in the Republican primary debates.