Factor X have we finally found the fountain of Youth?

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hanelyp
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Re: Factor X have we finally found the fountain of Youth?

Post by hanelyp »

Consider the case of medical technology extending average healthy lifespans to several centuries. Governments don't last that long. Tyrannies seem to last shorter than average for a government. Dictators have a tendency to not outlive their governments, or if they do in greatly reduced standing. A political leader then, if smart, has a greater incentive to preserve the long term wealth of their nation, and promote good relations to insure their own survival.

But so many people follow short term interest instead.
The daylight is uncomfortably bright for eyes so long in the dark.

Betruger
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Re: Factor X have we finally found the fountain of Youth?

Post by Betruger »

Yup.

I would add that there is no statistical sample to base ourselves on for what happens long term in, or for how predictable is, such a future of long lived populations. Because of lifespan (cultural horizon) and because of the usual technological horizon.

A looming cambrian explosion, for all we know.
You can do anything you want with laws except make Americans obey them. | What I want to do is to look up S. . . . I call him the Schadenfreudean Man.

williatw
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Re: Factor X have we finally found the fountain of Youth?

Post by williatw »

Betruger wrote:Yup.

I would add that there is no statistical sample to base ourselves on for what happens long term in, or for how predictable is, such a future of long lived populations. Because of lifespan (cultural horizon) and because of the usual technological horizon.

A looming cambrian explosion, for all we know.
Yes.. And we are not just talking about a non-aging long lived population. Given the ability to repair/replace damaged parts (organs, joints, etc.) is the ability to upgrade. At some point maybe whole body replacements; why keep fixing up the same old one when you can get a newer better model? Augmentations both physical and mental would crop up; the "old" would actually improve over time not just maintain status quo.

williatw
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Re: Factor X have we finally found the fountain of Youth?

Post by williatw »

Impacts of Indefinite Life Extension: Answers to Common Questions – Article by G. Stolyarov II

(1) The greatest benefit of life extension is the continued existence of the individual who remains alive. Each individual – apart from the worst criminals – has incalculable moral value and is a universe of ideas, experiences, emotions, and memories. When a person dies, that entire universe is extinguished, and, to the person who dies, everything is lost and not even a memory remains. It is as if the individual never existed at all. This is the greatest possible loss and should be averted if at all possible. The rest of us, of course, also lose the possible benefits and opportunities of interacting with that individual.

(2) People would be able to accomplish far more with longer lifespans. They could pursue multiple careers and multi-year personal projects and could reliably accumulate enough resources to sustainably enjoy life. They could develop their intellectual, physical, and relational capabilities to the fullest. Furthermore, they would exhibit longer-term orientations, since they could expect to remain to live with the consequences of decisions many decades and centuries from now. I expect that a world of longer-lived individuals would involve far less pollution, corruption, fraud, hierarchical oppression, destruction of other species, and short-term exploitation of other humans. Prudence, foresight, and pursuit of respectful, symbiotic interactions would prevail. People would tend to live in more reflective, measured, and temperate ways instead of seeking to haphazardly cram enjoyment and activity into the tiny slivers of life they have now. At the same time, they would also be more open to experimentation with new projects and ideas, since they would have more time to devote to such exploratory behaviors.

(3) Upon becoming adults, people would no longer live life in strict stages, and the normative societal expectations of “what one should do with one’s life” at a particular stage would relax considerably. If a person at age 80 is biologically indistinguishable from a person at age 20, the strict generational divides of today would dissipate, allowing a much greater diversity of human interactions. People will tend to become more tolerant and cosmopolitan, having more time to explore other ways of living and to understand those who are different from them.

(4) Technological, scientific, and economic progress would accelerate rapidly, because precious intellectual capital would not be lost to the ravages of death and disease. Longer-lived humans would be more likely to invest in projects that would materialize over the course of decades, including space travel and colonization, geo-engineering and terraforming, prevention of asteroid impacts and other natural disasters, safe nuclear disarmament and disposal of nuclear waste, and long-term preservation of the human species. The focus of most intelligent people would shift from meeting quarterly or annual business earnings goals and toward time- and resource-intensive projects that could avert existential dangers to humankind and also expand humanity’s reach, knowledge, and benevolence. The achievement of significant life extension would inspire many intelligent people to try to solve other age-old problems instead of resigning to the perception of their inevitability.

(5) Major savings to health-care systems, both private and governmental, would result if the largest expenses – which occur in the last years of life today, in the attempt to fight a losing battle against the diseases of old age – are replaced by periodic and relatively inexpensive rejuvenation and maintenance treatments to forestall the advent of biological senescence altogether. Health care could truly become about the pursuit of sustainable good health instead of a last-ditch effort against the onslaught of diseases that accompanies old age today. Furthermore, the strain on public pensions would be alleviated as advanced age would cease to be a barrier to work.

What drawbacks would life extension pose?

I do not see true drawbacks to life extension. Certainly, the world and all human societies would change significantly, and there would be some upheaval as old business models and ways of living are replaced by new ones. However, this has happened with every major technological advance in history, and in the end the benefits far outweigh any transitional costs. For the people who remain alive, the avoidance of the greatest loss of all will be well worth it, and the human capacity for adaptation and growth in the face of new circumstances is and has always been remarkable. Furthermore, the continued presence of individuals from older generations would render this transition far more humane than any other throughout history. After all, entire generations would no longer be swept away by the ravages of time. They could persist and preserve their knowledge and experience as anchors during times of change.

Every day, approximately 150,000 people die, and approximately 100,000 of them die from causes related to senescence. If those deaths can be averted and the advent of indefinite life extension accelerated by even a few days, hundreds of thousands of irreplaceable individual universes would be preserved. This is worth paying even substantial costs in my view, but, fortunately, I think the other – economic and societal – effects that accompany life extension would be overwhelmingly positive as well.




http://www.rationalargumentator.com/ind ... extension/

kurt9
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Re: Factor X have we finally found the fountain of Youth?

Post by kurt9 »

There really isn't any legitimate argument against life extension.

ladajo
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Re: Factor X have we finally found the fountain of Youth?

Post by ladajo »

Social Security? :D
How in the world will we afford it?
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

paperburn1
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Re: Factor X have we finally found the fountain of Youth?

Post by paperburn1 »

Simple, remove the cap on the max contribution. Next problem?
I am not a nuclear physicist, but play one on the internet.

williatw
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Re: Factor X have we finally found the fountain of Youth?

Post by williatw »

ladajo wrote:Social Security? :D
How in the world will we afford it?
Oh come on ladajo...you must be "young"; ..that old saw?!. Because if you were rejuvenated especially on the gov's dime you wouldn't also be able to be retired collecting SS indefinitely also on the guv dime. In a world where effectively people don't grow "old" you would have to keep working until your accruing 401K/investments allowed you to "retire" on your own dime; however long that would take. Most would probably just keep on working, but maybe at different jobs/careers; as time went on and your portfolio grew, you would be depending less and less on your job's salary and more on your investments for your income. Even if you were never able to completely retire you might find yourself working allot fewer hours (<40hr/month instead of ~40hrs a week for instance), with long sabbaticals between jobs/careers when you decided what you wanted to do next.
Last edited by williatw on Mon May 16, 2016 4:33 am, edited 1 time in total.

ladajo
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Re: Factor X have we finally found the fountain of Youth?

Post by ladajo »

I foresee a future where compounded effects increase the socioeconomic divide (exponentially).
I pity the 'new-borns'...
:D
The development of atomic power, though it could confer unimaginable blessings on mankind, is something that is dreaded by the owners of coal mines and oil wells. (Hazlitt)
What I want to do is to look up C. . . . I call him the Forgotten Man. (Sumner)

JohnFul
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Re: Factor X have we finally found the fountain of Youth?

Post by JohnFul »

Oh my. Get your degree in underwater basket weaving, accrue $100K in "college education" debt with no job prospects, and wonder why. What has this world come to? DOn't expect me to fund your folly...

williatw
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Re: Factor X have we finally found the fountain of Youth?

Post by williatw »

JohnFul wrote:Oh my. Get your degree in underwater basket weaving, accrue $100K in "college education" debt with no job prospects, and wonder why. What has this world come to? DOn't expect me to fund your folly...
It would actually be cheaper for the gov to pay to "rejuvenate" people than the current system we have now:

(5) Major savings to health-care systems, both private and governmental, would result if the largest expenses – which occur in the last years of life today, in the attempt to fight a losing battle against the diseases of old age – are replaced by periodic and relatively inexpensive rejuvenation and maintenance treatments to forestall the advent of biological senescence altogether. Health care could truly become about the pursuit of sustainable good health instead of a last-ditch effort against the onslaught of diseases that accompanies old age today. Furthermore, the strain on public pensions would be alleviated as advanced age would cease to be a barrier to work.



In other words the rejuvenated now "young" person would then continue to work and pay taxes; unlike our current system where the old run up insanely high last years of life medical bills and then die anyway. Let's say you keep working (after your treatments) for uncounted decades more, your rolled over 401K/portfolio's capital gains now taxable income as well as your actual income taxes from your employment. The gov which paid for your treatments now gets a return on their "investment" of making you young again. Not counting the value of physical/mental enhancements you might be able to afford as the years go on (even assuming those "extras" are not paid for by gov.) A smarter more energetic super-healthy you would likely be very productive at whatever endeavors you decide to pursue; higher income means you would pay more taxes; good return on investment for keeping you alive.

williatw
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Re: Factor X have we finally found the fountain of Youth?

Post by williatw »

ladajo wrote:I foresee a future where compounded effects increase the socioeconomic divide (exponentially).
I pity the 'new-borns'...
:D
Probably..no remedy I can think of for that. The new young (formerly old) would be richer..able to afford the best available care; the guv maybe paying for basic rejuvenation but not all the bells and whistles; would still suck to be poor, even if on paper your better off than the richest are today. As time went on the wealthy with better enhancements would advance much more than the poor with only what guv decides it could afford to pay for. The rich would indeed get richer and the poor would get poorer (in relative if not absolute terms). The rising tide would lift all boats but lift some boats higher faster than others. For the new-borns who would be increasingly rare anyway, mixed bag; depends on how well to do your parents were. If they were rich and paid for the best genetic/nano-tech enhancements in their few offspring, life probably wouldn't be too bad; for everyone else progressively less great.

Betruger
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Re: Factor X have we finally found the fountain of Youth?

Post by Betruger »

Place your bets. The wheel stops spinning in a few dozen centuries.
You can do anything you want with laws except make Americans obey them. | What I want to do is to look up S. . . . I call him the Schadenfreudean Man.

Diogenes
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Re: Factor X have we finally found the fountain of Youth?

Post by Diogenes »

williatw wrote:
Betruger wrote:
Diogenes wrote:

This perception bothers me quite a lot. Considering the sweep of history, i'm not sure extending lives is necessarily a good thing at all. I can just imagine what a longer lived Caligula might have accomplished.

Uhh..Caligula didn't die of old age; believe he died young and relatively healthy; was killed by his chief bodyguard who he mercilessly teased and bullied.

And my point is, "Thank God." It was a mercy to humanity that he couldn't live for 150 years.


What do you suppose happens when despots become immortal? How do you see that turning out well for the bulk of us?


And of course, who do you think will be in the most prime position to get this sort of immortality?



williatw wrote: Neither did Hitler (bang) or Saddam Hussein, or possibly not even Stalin (maybe poisoned). In other words there is more than one way to skin a cat; or kill an evil dictator, don't have to wait for old age to do it. And no need to kill everyone else just to get the few evil sociopaths who deserve it.

Plenty of them die of old Age. Mao, for example. And he probably killed more people than any other. Can you imagine Mao still being alive? Or how about believing his own God-Hood bat-sh*t crazy Kim Jong Il?

It's not so easy killing dictators, especially if they surround themselves with fellow Immortals who have a stake in their continued existence.


williatw wrote: On the other hand...the level of "debauchery and oppression" and plain old bat-shit craziness a thousand year old Hillary Clinton (or Madonna) would be capable of does give me pause; and I imagine they would be real good at dodging the assassin's bullet, and taking horrendous sadomasochistic revenge against the perpetrators if they somehow survived.

I am reminded of the misuse of anti-biotics causing superbugs. Hillary or Bill, would be a similarly virulent pathogen on a larger scale.
‘What all the wise men promised has not happened, and what all the damned fools said would happen has come to pass.’
— Lord Melbourne —

Diogenes
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Re: Factor X have we finally found the fountain of Youth?

Post by Diogenes »

Betruger wrote:Yup.

I would add that there is no statistical sample to base ourselves on for what happens long term in, or for how predictable is, such a future of long lived populations. Because of lifespan (cultural horizon) and because of the usual technological horizon.

A looming cambrian explosion, for all we know.


More like a Devonian extinction. What use do the elite have for us breeders when machines will eventually be able to serve them better?
Last edited by Diogenes on Mon May 16, 2016 3:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
‘What all the wise men promised has not happened, and what all the damned fools said would happen has come to pass.’
— Lord Melbourne —

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