Crime and Punishment: Oklahoma (& Texas) style!

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GIThruster
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Postby GIThruster » Mon Jan 09, 2012 2:47 pm

Two big thumbs down for Simon stealing yet another thread to support his druggie crusade. Obvious evidence MSimon's drug use has taken from him any common sense he might otherwise have had.
"Courage is not just a virtue, but the form of every virtue at the testing point." C. S. Lewis

KitemanSA
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Postby KitemanSA » Mon Jan 09, 2012 3:57 pm

GIThruster wrote: Two big thumbs down for Simon stealing yet another thread to support his druggie crusade. Obvious evidence MSimon's drug use has taken from him any common sense he might otherwise have had.
Two big thumbs down for GIT for failing to notice that D brought up the subject first.

True, MSimon's ktonne response may have been more than warrented, but...

:lol:

Diogenes
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Postby Diogenes » Mon Jan 09, 2012 4:49 pm

KitemanSA wrote:
GIThruster wrote: Two big thumbs down for Simon stealing yet another thread to support his druggie crusade. Obvious evidence MSimon's drug use has taken from him any common sense he might otherwise have had.
Two big thumbs down for GIT for failing to notice that D brought up the subject first.

True, MSimon's ktonne response may have been more than warrented, but...

:lol:


I have to admit I was baiting him a bit. :) I just couldn't resist. Simon, we may not always agree, but I love you bro!
‘What all the wise men promised has not happened, and what all the damned fools said would happen has come to pass.’
— Lord Melbourne —

williatw
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Postby williatw » Mon Jan 09, 2012 5:01 pm

Diogenes wrote:
KitemanSA wrote:
GIThruster wrote: Two big thumbs down for Simon stealing yet another thread to support his druggie crusade. Obvious evidence MSimon's drug use has taken from him any common sense he might otherwise have had.
Two big thumbs down for GIT for failing to notice that D brought up the subject first.

True, MSimon's ktonne response may have been more than warrented, but...

:lol:


I have to admit I was baiting him a bit. :) I just couldn't resist. Simon, we may not always agree, but I love you bro!

The fact that experts are baffled at the drop in crime should say something abouth the worth of their opinions. After all most of them thought gun control was the cat's meow, but the more we had the higher crime got. I still think there is a massive deterrent effect to castle doctrine type laws and the growth of concealed carry permits (and the states allowing such) in the last decade. Headlines like this one don't hurt either. Sure the actually no. of bad guys smoked is miniscule, but they see the news to. Hearing about assailants shot/killed and the person doing it hailed a hero, no charges filed etc, must have some kind of a discouraging influence on criminals.

Diogenes
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Postby Diogenes » Mon Jan 09, 2012 5:16 pm

williatw wrote:
Diogenes wrote:
KitemanSA wrote:
GIThruster wrote: Two big thumbs down for Simon stealing yet another thread to support his druggie crusade. Obvious evidence MSimon's drug use has taken from him any common sense he might otherwise have had.
Two big thumbs down for GIT for failing to notice that D brought up the subject first.

True, MSimon's ktonne response may have been more than warrented, but...

:lol:


I have to admit I was baiting him a bit. :) I just couldn't resist. Simon, we may not always agree, but I love you bro!

The fact that experts are baffled at the drop in crime should say something abouth the worth of their opinions. After all most of them thought gun control was the cat's meow, but the more we had the higher crime got. I still think there is a massive deterrent effect to castle doctrine type laws and the growth of concealed carry permits (and the states allowing such) in the last decade. Headlines like this one don't hurt either. Sure the actually no. of bad guys smoked is miniscule, but they see the news to. Hearing about assailants shot/killed and the person doing it hailed a hero, no charges filed etc, must have some kind of a discouraging influence on criminals.


I think for every number "X" of bad guys who get smoked by an armed citizen, the deterrence effect is X+Y, with Y being a non negative number. There are a lot of criminals who decide not to take the chance when they hear that criminals are getting shot.

As Thomas Paine said:


"The supposed quietude of a good man allures the ruffian; while on the other hand, arms like laws discourage and keep the invader and the plunderer in awe, and preserve order in the world as well as property. The balance of power is the scale of peace. The same balance would be preserved were all the world destitute of arms, for all would be alike; but since some will not, others dare not lay them aside. Horrid mischief would ensue were one half the world deprived of the use of them; the weak would become a prey to the strong."


On a slightly different note, I am fond of this Jefferson Quote. (Among others.)


"Those who hammer their guns into plows will plow for those who do not."

As for experts, I am fond of the quip I found in my book on Murphy's law and corollarys.


"Experts aren't. "
‘What all the wise men promised has not happened, and what all the damned fools said would happen has come to pass.’
— Lord Melbourne —

GIThruster
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Postby GIThruster » Mon Jan 09, 2012 5:31 pm

williatw wrote:I still think there is a massive deterrent effect to castle doctrine type laws and the growth of concealed carry permits (and the states allowing such) in the last decade.

I was living in Portland when the city moved to allow concealed carry. A decade earlier, Portland had topped the violent crime per capita in the US, because of all the fighting between the Cripps and Bloods. After a decade of this, Portland passed the concealed carry permit law and 2,000 licenses were issued in the first week. Crime dropped dramatically overnight. I remember a police officer telling me in some dismay (he was a gun control advocate as are most police--they want a monopoly on self defense) that bank robberies had gone from 14/month to less than 1/month in the first month of the new law. Criminals are simply afraid of being shot by Average Joes for committing crimes. The Cripps and Bloods moved all their bases of operation from Portland to Vancouver and crime continued to drop the remaining years I was there.
"Courage is not just a virtue, but the form of every virtue at the testing point." C. S. Lewis

williatw
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Postby williatw » Mon Jan 09, 2012 5:32 pm

Diogenes wrote:I think for every number "X" of bad guys who get smoked by an armed citizen, the deterrence effect is X+Y, with Y being a non negative number. There are a lot of criminals who decide not to take the chance when they hear that criminals are getting shot. As for experts, I am fond of the quip I found in my book on Murphy's law and corollarys.i]"Experts aren't. "[/i]

Would agree accept that I would probably go with 5-10(X). Thousands of would be criminals heard about that ladies defense, if only few percentage wise are deterred that could be many times the no. of incidents of defense publicized. When things like this happen our media will cover them dutifully and them get them out of the news as soon as possible. They tried their best to turn the Gifford's shooting into a cry for more gun control, and effort that floppped on its face. But they say little or nothing about the huge drop in crime that has occured in just the last few years. After all...how can Obama, Reid & Pelosi Bloomberg and their ilk admit homicide has dropped massively in the last few years inspite of more guns than ever and in their next breath say we need more gun control?

GIThruster
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Postby GIThruster » Mon Jan 09, 2012 5:47 pm

williatw wrote:
Diogenes wrote:I think for every number "X" of bad guys who get smoked by an armed citizen, the deterrence effect is X+Y, with Y being a non negative number. There are a lot of criminals who decide not to take the chance when they hear that criminals are getting shot. As for experts, I am fond of the quip I found in my book on Murphy's law and corollarys.i]"Experts aren't. "[/i]

Would agree accept that I would probably go with 5-10(X). Thousands of would be criminals heard about that ladies defense, if only few percentage wise are deterred that could be many times the no. of incidents of defense publicized. When things like this happen are media will cover them dutifully and them get them out of the news as soon as possible. They tried their best to turn the Gifford's shooting into a cry for more gun control, and effort that floppped on its face. But they say little or nothing about the huge drop in crime that has occured in just the last few years. After all...how can Obama, Reid & Pelosi Bloomberg and their ilk admit homicide has dropped massively in the last few years inspite of more guns than ever and in their next breath say we need more gun control?


My first year living in Portland, I had an apartment next to a tiny Mom and Pop convenience store. I heard a bunch of shooting so stupidly, went to see what was going on.

A guy had come in the store and waved a gun at the clerk demanding money. The clerk, who was ex-Vietnam Special Forces, drew his .357 magnum from under the counter, crouched and started firing. (Lethal force is legal in defense of personal property in Oregon.) The attacker shot back. The clerks's first shot was wild, it killed the Satan's Hollow pinball machine in the corner. Dozens attended the funeral. The second shot was close from where it impacted the brick wall, but no hit. The third shot sent the perp back through the door he had come in. He spat blood on the ground before he sped off. A bullet-proof vest had obviously saved his life.

You can BET, that guy, his driver and all their friends decided as soon as they heard the news, that armed robbery was very risky business.
"Courage is not just a virtue, but the form of every virtue at the testing point." C. S. Lewis

ladajo
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Postby ladajo » Mon Jan 09, 2012 6:28 pm

williatw wrote:
Diogenes wrote:I think for every number "X" of bad guys who get smoked by an armed citizen, the deterrence effect is X+Y, with Y being a non negative number. There are a lot of criminals who decide not to take the chance when they hear that criminals are getting shot. As for experts, I am fond of the quip I found in my book on Murphy's law and corollarys.i]"Experts aren't. "[/i]

Would agree accept that I would probably go with 5-10(X). Thousands of would be criminals heard about that ladies defense, if only few percentage wise are deterred that could be many times the no. of incidents of defense publicized. When things like this happen our media will cover them dutifully and them get them out of the news as soon as possible. They tried their best to turn the Gifford's shooting into a cry for more gun control, and effort that floppped on its face. But they say little or nothing about the huge drop in crime that has occured in just the last few years. After all...how can Obama, Reid & Pelosi Bloomberg and their ilk admit homicide has dropped massively in the last few years inspite of more guns than ever and in their next breath say we need more gun control?


As I recall from the Gifford event, was someone commeting how upset they were that they had left their weapon at home that day, and thus felt guilty they could not stop it.
Society is about self policing. In order to function effectively a society must ahve a pre-dominance of members that agree to the rules, and the ability to control and manage those that do not. If those that do not carry and idea and act on it that introduces gun voilence to those that do want to follow the rules, in my opinion it is inherant to society that all must be able to deal with the issue. It will thus fix itself as a self correcting measure. There will always be some idiot who will think he can do as he pleases, but I posit that there will be many less of them if it is a known and accepted fact by all that one can not, because everyone else is prepared and willing to prevent or stop it.

Walk into a shopping mall, pick a child and punch it in the face several times. Then see what happens to you.
Change to the mechanism, walk into a mall with a gun, go and shoot a child. Then see what happens to you.
In event one, I would suggest that someone will come over and intervene (willingly, without much thought).
In event two, I would suggest that most folks will run away. If you are unlucky, there may be someone who is armed and willing to intervene. Odds are not as things stand. My Yemeni buddies would maintain that if you did it in Yemen, you would not walk away. You would be on the ground with new orfices.
The strong self-centered prey on what they think is the weak. It is a fact of history and everyday life. Why do you think "that jerk" cuts you off with his car in traffic? It is because he believes (and more or less rightly so) you can do nothing about it.

It may not be a bad idea to include gun training during childrenxs senior year of high-school. Then as part of graduation, all students get a diploma, and a state provided weapon. It would well be that after an initial "leveling period" that physical crime pretty much goes away, and as an added adjunct, prison population suddenly starts declining significantly. Natural Selection if you will.

Since I am on a rant, I will finish with the thought that this same principle applies on a global level. The selfish power mongers in a number of countries are able to maintain control, and trample over the concpets of universal humans rights using the shield of "sovereign rights". As a world, we will never solve this issue until we develop a reliable and functional means to usurp sovereign rights when human rights are at issue. There are glimerings of hope in this arena given the recent goings on where the UN Security Council and UN was and is being side-stepped by states willing to step up for the right thing. But it is not the norm, and certainly has caused a number of "national authorities" to get real nervous about their future. One that is dependant on hiding behind the magical shield of "sovereignty" and un-constrained use of force.

Ok, I am done. I promise to be less grumpy for the rest of the day.

MSimon
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Postby MSimon » Mon Jan 09, 2012 6:59 pm

Wait a minute. Are you fellers telling me that prohibition has nothing to do with the general level of gun violence or that the policing of prohibition makes no difference in the general level of violence?

It is too bad that police and the population didn't know that in 1933.

BTW the murder rate under Alcohol Prohibition peaked at around 10 while I believe the Drug Prohibition peak was a little under 10 around 1992 IIRC.

Let me see. According to D that would make alcohol a criminogenic drug. Actually it is. The only drug known to actually statistically increase the probability of violence from ingestion. They should outlaw that stuff.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.

ladajo
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Postby ladajo » Mon Jan 09, 2012 7:14 pm

I think it is also important to differentiate betweens criminals doing violence to criminals verses criminals doing violence to the populace.

In any event, the populace (should if not) sees gun violence from a perspective of the golden triangle (pun intended):

Leg one: Defense of Human Life
Leg Two: Prevention of Rape
Leg Three: Prevention of Arson

Most states agree to these three basic points when it comes to private guns use against another.

More and more states are including a forth leg:
Defense of Property
But in varying degrees on the basis of justified action. even the military is a little fuzzy on the forth leg. Some would argue it is not ok to shoot someone stealing a tank, others would says its good to go.

Speaking of the military perspective it also centers around the triangle concept of "Means-Intent-Opportunity" which is a play book entry borrowed from law enforcement. I personally think it is easier these days to be Joe Citizen and justifiably blow away a knucklehead than it is to be Joe Policeman and do it. Anyways...

KitemanSA
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Postby KitemanSA » Mon Jan 09, 2012 7:47 pm

Diogenes wrote: [I think for every number "X" of bad guys who get smoked by an armed citizen, the deterrence effect is X+Y, with Y being a non negative number. There are a lot of criminals who decide not to take the chance when they hear that criminals are getting shot.
I suspect it is more like X^Y where Y>1, probably >2. As a deterant, the quantity of "getting smoked" has a quality all its own.

ladajo
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Postby ladajo » Mon Jan 09, 2012 8:34 pm

Maybe the whole Saudi public beheading thing is on to something. I wonder if they track the numbers on impact? Prolly not.

Skipjack
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Postby Skipjack » Mon Jan 09, 2012 9:01 pm

Wait a minute. Are you fellers telling me that prohibition has nothing to do with the general level of gun violence or that the policing of prohibition makes no difference in the general level of violence?

We do have the same prohibition here, but much less violence. Most violence here can be attributed to social conflict and some etnic conflicts as well to say it broadly without coming over as being politically incorrect.

Diogenes
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Postby Diogenes » Mon Jan 09, 2012 9:39 pm

KitemanSA wrote:
Diogenes wrote: [I think for every number "X" of bad guys who get smoked by an armed citizen, the deterrence effect is X+Y, with Y being a non negative number. There are a lot of criminals who decide not to take the chance when they hear that criminals are getting shot.
I suspect it is more like X^Y where Y>1, probably >2. As a deterant, the quantity of "getting smoked" has a quality all its own.



Lest I be thought of as "unreasonable", I was being cautious with my numbers. :)

I agree with your numbers.
‘What all the wise men promised has not happened, and what all the damned fools said would happen has come to pass.’
— Lord Melbourne —


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