http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis
Holy sh**t the chicken!
YU55: NASA spokesman '...no chance it will crash into earth'
now i remember - 'gravitational keyholes' -
- only 610m wide! treacherous terrain n-body gravity fields.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_keyholewiki wrote:99942 Apophis... ...ruled out impact in 2029, but identified a 2,000-foot (610 m) wide keyhole that the asteroid may pass through on its approach in 2029, thereby causing a deflection that may result in impact in 2036; currently, the estimated probability of impact in 2036 is 1 in 250,000 (0.0004%)...
- only 610m wide! treacherous terrain n-body gravity fields.
Nothing.
On the other hand, such an impact, with that precise effect, is rather unlikely, and would probably cause the asteroid to break up anyway...
"The dinosaurs became extinct because they didn't have a space program. And if we become extinct because we don't have a space program, it'll serve us right!" - Larry Niven
On the other hand, such an impact, with that precise effect, is rather unlikely, and would probably cause the asteroid to break up anyway...
"The dinosaurs became extinct because they didn't have a space program. And if we become extinct because we don't have a space program, it'll serve us right!" - Larry Niven
it doesnt need a direct impact to change course, just a slight nudge, the flap of a butterflies wing, and through the keyhole it goes, onto a wholy different trajectory.
here's one of the papers i recalled on keyholes::
http://lairs.eng.buffalo.edu/pdffiles/pconf/RC1.pdf
- complicated stuff to try and work out (lots of backwards/forwards iterations, successive approximations, Lambert-W-functions and similar), and the damned tings wont stop moving about.
here's one of the papers i recalled on keyholes::
http://lairs.eng.buffalo.edu/pdffiles/pconf/RC1.pdf
- complicated stuff to try and work out (lots of backwards/forwards iterations, successive approximations, Lambert-W-functions and similar), and the damned tings wont stop moving about.
heres another interesting mathematical paper i found, on "N-body Gravity and the Schroedinger Equation" - P.S. Farrugia, R.B. Mann - 2008:
http://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0611144v2
Refers to equivalance of Lambert-W and Schroedinger Equation.
(references in curly braces are mine)
it was once explained to me how such effects are also plumbed into radar based misile guidance systems. spooky stuff.
in point of fact, i think the orig article on keyhole calculation might have been refering to method of 'Lambert's problem' ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambert%27s_problem ) rather than Lamberts W-func itself, but the two are intrinsically related i think.
http://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0611144v2
Refers to equivalance of Lambert-W and Schroedinger Equation.
.Farrugia,Mann wrote:... it {the (relativistic) n-body description} allows TRANSITIONS between states, with the dilaton {dilation field} itself acting as the agent of transition
(references in curly braces are mine)
it was once explained to me how such effects are also plumbed into radar based misile guidance systems. spooky stuff.
in point of fact, i think the orig article on keyhole calculation might have been refering to method of 'Lambert's problem' ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambert%27s_problem ) rather than Lamberts W-func itself, but the two are intrinsically related i think.
obviously you are kidding, but I calculated the difference in mass between this asteroid and the moon... and I tell you... its greater than the difference in mass between a mosquitoe and a M1 Abrams tanks.chrismb wrote: Might this asteroid hit our Moon? Maybe it dislodges the Moon, which then comes crashing down on us.
Asteroid: 55.000.000.000 kg
Moon: 73.400.000.000.000.000.000.000 kg
difference in mass: 1.3 trillion times
Mosquito: 0.002g
M1 Abrams: 61.000.000g
difference in mass: 30 billion times
a Friday?? oh no! Where will Apophis sit on Earth? In the front or the back??krenshala wrote:MuahahahaGiorgio wrote:Just check the Near Earth Objects website:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/neo_ca
Lot of options to play with, have fun.
For the lazy people here is a link to a table already ordered for missing distance from today until 2200.
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/neo_ca? ... t&sdir=ASC13 April 2029 is a Friday!Object: 99942 Apophis
Close-Approach Date: 2029-Apr-13 21:46 ± < 00:01
Miss Distance Nominal :0.10 Lunar Diameters/0.00025 AU
Miss Distance Minimum :0.10 Lunar Diameters/0.00025 AU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CD2LRROpph0
Applying Occam's Razor: Only one conclusion possible.
Given that the graphic shows the object is unaffected by Earth or the Moon's gravitational field, the object is, more than likely, a spaceship. Where'd they come from? Where are they going? What are they thinking?
Very unlikely. Space is big and has a lot of... well spaceWhat's to say that one of these monster asteriods that are supposed to miss the earth while passing within 1 lunar orbit distance couldn't bump into another asteriod to small to be seen but just big enough to setup a direct hit on us.
The chances of this happening are astronomical in the truest sense of the word.
I did have an idea for a cosmic billiard game once though. I was thinking about turning it into a scifi novel once. Basically earth scientists playing cosmic billiard to nudge several large comets and asteroids of useful chemical composition to crash into Mars for terraforming. If you intentionally do this, I think that it could be made to work. It would still be insanely difficult though, even then.
Extremely small chance of it hitting Earth, though its coming close. The real uncertainty is whether its going to hit the keyhole gravitationally that will divert it enough for a 2036 impact. Obervations in 2013-2014 will help narrow down its trajectory more precisely, so we will have plenty of time to plan contingencies, so long as we dont put it in the hands of NASA.krenshala wrote:MuahahahaGiorgio wrote:Just check the Near Earth Objects website:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/neo_ca
Lot of options to play with, have fun.
For the lazy people here is a link to a table already ordered for missing distance from today until 2200.
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/neo_ca? ... t&sdir=ASC13 April 2029 is a Friday!Object: 99942 Apophis
Close-Approach Date: 2029-Apr-13 21:46 ± < 00:01
Miss Distance Nominal :0.10 Lunar Diameters/0.00025 AU
Miss Distance Minimum :0.10 Lunar Diameters/0.00025 AU
Re: Applying Occam's Razor: Only one conclusion possible.
No, its 880 meters in diameter. Its velocity differential is such that its not going to see much of a change in momentum or trajectory from a single pass at GEO distance. Passing between both objects means that Earth and the Moon will cancel out each others influence mostly. If the moon was on the other side of the Earth you'd see more pronounced perturbance.Helius wrote:Given that the graphic shows the object is unaffected by Earth or the Moon's gravitational field, the object is, more than likely, a spaceship. Where'd they come from? Where are they going? What are they thinking?