I sometimes speak to High School Science Classes about the Polywell. Lately, I have been trying to get speaking engagements with local service clubs and other local groups. There is a "Great Issues" Group that meets in the next town over. When I read the description of their group, I thought "Great Issues" would be a likely possibility, so I contacted the moderator to set up a time. I told him that my presentation content would pretty much follow the content of my website at polywellnuclearfusion.com
The "Great Issues" moderator rejected my offer the very next next morning. I replied that I had apparently failed to properly explain the situation and that I hoped he would reconsider. I then went on to explain the importance of the Polywell in more detail; and referred him again to my website at polywellnuclearfusion.com
He rejected my offer yet again the next day. In the last sentence of his second rejection he let drop that, "In the 1970’s I was involved for a time with the Tokomak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) at the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPL)."
You have on your site that it is a classified project, that is not true, nor has it been.
You are also asking for greater awareness, fair enough. But at this point, it may be best to let the EMC team play out the current cycle, and not make it sound like it is a project on the edge of dismissal. The navy and gov has ponied up funds, and the recovery act money is solid. They are setup to finish the research on WB8 this year, and then if it is a player take a shot at pB11, with follow on recovery act funds.
If they take a crack at B11, then that means that D-D is good to go.
If you generate too much interest, you may awaken the powers that oppose, and cause un-needed pain for EMC and ONR. As you noted in this post, the Tokomakers can be anywhere. Other interests could also have their own reasons to oppose the project.
It may be better to keep it low key until proven. As of yet, it is not proven. In any event, you would only have to wait say 6 months at most to know if it is viable or not, depending on how fast they cycle through WB8 test completion, and the subsequent reviews. So far they are reporting on track, so if the sched holds, they will submit the report by April/May for review.
I understand that years ago, Tom Ligon and Dr Bussard were constrained by non-disclosure agreements until that older project ended. Much more recently in Nov 2010, pbreed was asked to sign a non-disclosure agreement when he visited the sight in San Diego.
When you object that the project was not classified, I guess you are referring to the place in my website where I said, "For most of that time, and up to the present day, it has been classified -or under some sort of confidentiality agreement- because development has been mostly funded by the Navy." Sorry I did not say "constrained by non-disclosure agreements." I will amend my language accordingly; I was not aware of the subtle difference.
re: the dangers of "generating too much interest" lest we waken the naysayers. Yes. I understand that well. I am painfully aware of the powers of special interest groups - I can easily list several others in addition to the "Tokemakers," some of them with relatively limitless wealth. That worries me a lot, but I am afraid that once the Polywell is "proven" keeping quiet will not work.
When the Navy moves to build the p-B11 100 megawatt prototype, we will quite suddenly have the forces of reason competing with numerous special interests, some very wealthy and others very intelligent and all fiercely protecting their own self-interest. At that point, we will quite suddenly need to have many voters willing to speak out in favor of the Polywell; and those voters will need to be educated on the issues or the special interests will win.
When the Navy moves to build the p-B11 100 megawatt prototype, we will quite suddenly have the forces of reason competing with numerous special interests, some very wealthy and others very intelligent and all fiercely protecting their own self-interest...
i find that i usually have more success applying "the forces of reason" on nature than i do applying them on the human mind.
Are you serious? I will assume you are.
1. High School kids love this kind of stuff - plus it is highly motivational: it helps them to see the relevance of physics and math - the Polywell is a dramatic illustration of how science and math connect to the real world.
2. High School kids will be voters by the time that the Polywell research is ready for major funding. (I believe that I was just saying that when that happens we will need a lot of supportive voters to cancel the effect of naysaying special interests.)
3. It is a real kick to talk to HS students - you should try it!
Still don't know if you are serious or not.
Yes I am serious. Polywell is a physics experiment at best. It is hardly promising anything you have said and its a bit disingenuous to tell people otherwise, especially those who don't understand any of the physics that is behind it, or the physics that is not (especially what is not).
If you want to teach physics in HS thats fine, but pick something that they can actually figure out. If you want to teach them about things they cannot understand yet to engage them then thats fine too, but pick something thats actually be verified.
High school kids are voters before or shortly after graduation.
Non-disclosure is a world of difference from "classified" and all the subtleties and nuances that the word implies.
My point is that this year, there will be some sort of definative evidence that Polywell is a starter or not. I agree with your other thread that your website is "In your face". I really think that it does not need to be at this point. And in fact, in its agressiveness, runs the risk of de-railing the project if the wrong folks take notice.
If WB8 plays out, evidenced by a pB11 contract activation, then by all means, go for it. That means that DD is a go, and should get a shot. But, in the mean time, trust in the Navy and EMC2 that they are giving it a fair shot, which IMHO they are, and let them produce some data and results unmolested.
I ran the FOIA, and they claimed proprietary. I was not happy, and lined up some big guns to fight it. But, at the same time, after some reflection, I realized that they are giving it an honest shot, and deserved some leeway. I came to the conclusion that if it meant go/no-go results within 12 months, I was okay with that. These things take time to set up, light off, run, collect data, and analyze. WB6 lead to WB7, which then validated WB6 and gave reason for WB8 to test scaling, the last big hurdle. If scaling plays, then there is something to it. If scaling does not play, then it is a wash for someone else to play with in another venue if they wish. This is not a private venture, but a Government funded project, and in that it incurs politics and drama, some immediate, and some with ominous potential.
The navy's stated plan is in summary: WB8 - test scaling, because WB7 validated WB6 and looked like something worth checking out. If WB8 works then go DEMO. If WB8 works really well, then go WB8.1 and check on pB11. If PB11 plays, then go DEMO pB11. Otherwise, knowing DD plays, go DEMO DD.
I think you should tone it down a little, and let them play out WB8. Best case you are looking at May or so for a clue. Worst case if they schedule slip, you are looking at summer into fall for the clue. I do not think the navy would give them much contract grace beyond that. Let us see here by the Recovery.gov posting in a week or so how they are tracking.
Overly aggressive support may hamstring them unintentionaly with good intentions. Believe me, I am worried as well thatthey get adequate support. At this time, I think they are supported adequately for what they are doing.
Patience is a virtue. Let them play out WB8, if they get squirelly coming off that, then have at it. For now, they are a little dog, and they do not need big dogs getting in the fight for now. Bigs dogs tend to step on little dogs and not notice.
ladajo wrote:You have on your site that it is a classified project, that is not true, nor has it been.
You are also asking for greater awareness, fair enough. But at this point, it may be best to let the EMC team play out the current cycle, and not make it sound like it is a project on the edge of dismissal. The navy and gov has ponied up funds, and the recovery act money is solid. They are setup to finish the research on WB8 this year, and then if it is a player take a shot at pB11, with follow on recovery act funds.
If they take a crack at B11, then that means that D-D is good to go. If you generate too much interest, you may awaken the powers that oppose, and cause un-needed pain for EMC and ONR. As you noted in this post, the Tokomakers can be anywhere. Other interests could also have their own reasons to oppose the project.
It may be better to keep it low key until proven. As of yet, it is not proven. In any event, you would only have to wait say 6 months at most to know if it is viable or not, depending on how fast they cycle through WB8 test completion, and the subsequent reviews. So far they are reporting on track, so if the sched holds, they will submit the report by April/May for review.
:)
Sounds good to me.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.
My agreement at present is that I can talk about the old project because RWB already disclosed it. Regards the present project, while I have signed an NDA with them, I'm also not being given any information I could disclose. That is by mutual consent. The temptation would be killing me.
I mention the Polywell. I don't present it is a sure bet (not that I'm not personally excited by every scrap of positive news), but rather one of several fusion options we should be allowing to proceed. I look at what the economic consequences would be if they succeed and compare that to the present renewable resource alternatives. The difference is, while we can conceivably shift our lives around to the point where we might eek by on solar, wind, and biofuels, it is only with tremendous compromises and limitations for our future. Fusion takes off the limits. Thus, even if a fusion program is a long shot, the little programs like Polywell, Tri-Alpha, and Focus Fusion are cheap and worth looking into. If and as they show results, they should be promoted.
As the Polywell is in this process right now, it does not need me promoting it. If it has merit it will promote itself.
From the standpoint of high school students, I do promote interest in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) via interest in fusion, specifically electrostatic fusion. This promotes youngsters to pursue an education that gives them a clearer view of what really causes fusion (particle velocity rather than temperature). Even if the present programs fail, if it can ever work, this next generation will find the way. But if Polywell or one of the others does work, we've got kids in college now who will be ready to bring them on line.
Don't make too many promises on the Polywell. It is an example of what could be. Do get kids excited about fusion, or anything else to encourage STEM.
We are only three month short (theoretically) from getting a definitive reply about Polywell possibility to work as designed.
If April brings a positive feedback I hardly believe someone will be able to stop Polywell from getting to the next phase.
The world hunger for cheap electricity is becoming more and more big.....
This is getting a little off topic, but I'm ... worried is much too strong a word, but worried that people take the April deadline maybe the wrong way. What if Bussard hadn't had his last day WB6 breakthrough? Contract deadline operates in the bureaucratic world, independently of what happens in the experimental world where exist either success or exhaustion of possible avenues to success.
I agree on the April target.
I do not think that they had a lab relocation planned when the contract was planned. I may be wonrg, but it seemed kind of sudden. Given that, I think there is some possibility that it may have introduced delays. They are also playing with some new things, stronger magnets, ion guns, etc. Given all that, experience would claim that Murphy would get a vote, and that may cause some delay as well.
The April date was the completion target, but I do not think it addressed the review process. So given that, at a minimum, plus a little Murphy, It would be fair to think that review may not complete until some time in the summer or so.
Just sayin, there is a good case to be made regarding expectation management for April. We can also assume that reporting so far has not said WB8 is built. So that means that as of submission of last report, they did not light it off. If the pending report does not say construction complete, we can assume again no light off (plasma) again.
Anyone want to start a pool?
Ladago, you have consistently been level headed and are likely correct with your expectations. One thing to consider though is WB7.1 effort may have given them a heads up on WB-8 issues. Probably not enough to thwart Murphy though. Another thing to consider is that the move may have put them closer to help if something unexpected came up. WB-8 deserves 6 months to 1 year Murphy delay adder. IMWO.
Counting the days to commercial fusion. It is not that long now.
