A Dilemma to think about

[Soylent]

How does this concept work with religious nut jobs who believe that it is their duty to kill as many non believers as possible, while they and all of their people will go to heaven if they die ?

It takes nation scale resources and thousands of highly skilled scientiests to develop a crude nuclear device like the little boy or fatman bomb dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. A low-yield nuke that's untested and barely aircraft deliverable isn't scary. You only get one chance to use it and even if you manage to destroy a city and kill a million people your entire country gets turned into a glass parkinglot.

The world will not passively sit still and allow you to do hundreds of nuclear weapons tests, working your way toward miniaturization and thermonuclear devices, if they think your crazy enough to actually use them.

[ravingdave]

How does this concept work with religious nut jobs who believe that it is their duty to kill as many non believers as possible, while they and all of their people will go to heaven if they die ?

It takes nation scale resources and thousands of highly skilled scientiests to develop a crude nuclear device like the little boy or fatman bomb dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. A low-yield nuke that's untested and barely aircraft deliverable isn't scary. You only get one chance to use it and even if you manage to destroy a city and kill a million people your entire country gets turned into a glass parkinglot.

The world will not passively sit still and allow you to do hundreds of nuclear weapons tests, working your way toward miniaturization and thermonuclear devices, if they think your crazy enough to actually use them.

Well of course. The world will step in just like they did when Hitler was making all the trouble. Nipped it in the bud before it got out of hand they did.


Seriously, I've seen reports that the Chinese have managed to obtain all of the information on every single American Nuclear bomb design, and can copy anything in our arsenal. Other countries don't have to undertake years of research the way we did. They can just use the information we created by buying it off the black market.

The Iranians can easily make a 20 kiloton "gun bomb" designed using just enriched uranium. It is fool proof and deadly. The complicated bomb designs are the implosion devices using Plutonium.

Now what was it they needed Centrifuges for ? (Plutonium is separated through a chemical process which is FAR easier. )

The gun design is very heavy, but easily loftable by their latest rocket. At least as far as Tel Aviv.

If you are a religious Iranian Nutjob with one nuclear bomb, what's your target ? Tel Aviv. Same as it was for Saddam Hussein.

The Israelis have around 50 nuclear devices, (unconfirmed, but so I have read) and they could Nuke Iran far worse, but if in doing so they bring down the wrath of the world on their heads, who wins ? The religious nutjobs win.

Remeber, Amadenijahed is a follower of the 12th imam. He believes it is his religious duty to bring about Islamic Armageddon.



David

[MSimon]

can copy anything in our arsenal.

Not necessarily. Suppose the call out is for flooby dust made by Very Small Corporation by a process that is not totally understood? Blue prints are one thing. Industrial capability is something else.

It does not gain you absolute denial of course. It does gain you time.

[KitemanSA]

You only get one chance to use it and even if you manage to destroy a city and kill a million people your entire country gets turned into a glass parkinglot.

Which country, and how do you know?

[TallDave]

It takes nation scale resources and thousands of highly skilled scientiests to develop a crude nuclear device like the little boy or fatman bomb dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

I think there's some confusion about this: the first time it required vast resources. Original research is always harder. Later a tiny state like Israel was able to do it without much trouble.

The only thing that keeps the genie in the bottle is treaties and controls on material and technology.

At any rate, people tend to forget that nukes are primarily a strategic asset. With nuclear weapons and apocalyptic rhetoric, Iran can signficantly weaken Israel. Those conditions are not conducive to investment or immigration. They can also use the nuclear threat to try to prevent Israel from going after Iran's proxies like Hizbollah.

So, here's a likely scenario: 2012, Iran has nukes, and Hizbollah is raining down rockets on Israel with abandon. Israel threatens a response. Iran says it will counter with nukes. The world deplores Iran's actions... but also tells Israel they cannot attack Hizbollah.