A lot of people don't realize that there are no real famines anymore, and haven't been for half a century or more. In modern times, people only go hungry through abuse of power. There is always more than enough food aid to feed people, but too often (as happened in Somalia in the 1990s) it is doled out on the basis of loyalty and withheld as a weapon against political enemies, or (as in Ethiopia) sold by corrupt officials.
Why is this so? Because crop yields have been increasing by 2% a year for around a century (another non-S-curve tech). In the U.S., we actually have less acreage planted than in 1908, but produce something like ten times as much food from them. We are also far more efficient at producing that food, such we now spend a much smaller percentage of income on food than we used to. This means that even if food prices tripled or quadrupled due to extended poor harvests, we would still only be paying 1950s percentages of income for them.
A Green Wants to Reduce the Numbr of Humans on Earth
Disease could in theory be a problem, but we have several major advantages over the old days. Hygiene, communication of disaease threats, much faster analysis, a much larger pool of humanity which increases the likelihood enough people will be immune to carry on civilization, and overall better health.
Knowledge, once obtained, is generally not lost. The Stone Age is not coming back. To understand why, consider how quickly Bronze Age Greeks could have advanced with a copy of the 2007 Encyclopedia Brittanica and a few laptops loaded with educational material.
Knowledge, once obtained, is generally not lost. The Stone Age is not coming back. To understand why, consider how quickly Bronze Age Greeks could have advanced with a copy of the 2007 Encyclopedia Brittanica and a few laptops loaded with educational material.
I'm not saying we'll see a total collapse during our lifetimes (or ever - but that's a whole other issue), or that we're anywhere near total understanding and mastery of the physical universe.
I'm just saying "singularity" is a bad name for it, and gives a false impression of asymptotic behaviour when you're actually talking about the exponential-shaped base of a big S-curve.
Let me add that I think I see some signs that our explosive technological progress to date may actually be starting to sag, again not for technical reasons but for human ones... I hope I'm wrong. Either way, if Polywell works it will almost certainly provide a significant upward kick to the curve...
...oh yes, and knowledge can indeed be lost. 1) Linear B (temporary), 2) the library at Alexandria (permanent). You're right that we aren't headed back to the Stone Age, but our industrial society is actually a lot more precarious than it looks - it depends on continued massive industrial effort to keep the supply chains up and running. Could you - could anyone - make a car or a computer using just random scrap in a machine shop powered by an old solar panel?
I'm just saying "singularity" is a bad name for it, and gives a false impression of asymptotic behaviour when you're actually talking about the exponential-shaped base of a big S-curve.
Let me add that I think I see some signs that our explosive technological progress to date may actually be starting to sag, again not for technical reasons but for human ones... I hope I'm wrong. Either way, if Polywell works it will almost certainly provide a significant upward kick to the curve...
...oh yes, and knowledge can indeed be lost. 1) Linear B (temporary), 2) the library at Alexandria (permanent). You're right that we aren't headed back to the Stone Age, but our industrial society is actually a lot more precarious than it looks - it depends on continued massive industrial effort to keep the supply chains up and running. Could you - could anyone - make a car or a computer using just random scrap in a machine shop powered by an old solar panel?
Your forgetting that for a lot of familes at the bottom of the economic ladder, that high housing costs mean that if food prices did quadruple, they would be unable to afford food and rent!
Looking around my neighbourhood (And even my shared bathroom..) I can say that hygiene is pretty awful these days, it might look all nice at first glance, but look a little closer and your see maggot infested rubbish piled high in peoples gardens thats been there weeks.. (Look at Naples as a good example at the moment..)
Faster communication yes, but then, faster to panic, faster to riots to steal food..
But how fast is analysis, if something breaks out and within days is spreading around the world, I'm concerned it might take us months to find a cure whilst the world falls apart at the edges.
I see knowledge lost every day, from yesterdays computer technology, to how to fix your car. The de-skilling evident in the general population is frightening, practically no one can even tie their own shoe laces these days!
As long as those laptops came with a solar panel to charge them, and someone who knew how to reinstall the OS when they crashed...
The Greeks might well have advanced, but thats conditional on no one having burn't the book to keep warm, or some religious flavour which forbid books/reading...
Just looking around me in my own home, which I share with countless others, its hard to keep pace with the people ripping the heart out of the place because they fail to understand how basic things like the toilet works, how to open a door, or that banister rails are not for playing cricket with!
Talking of Alexandira, reminds me of when I worked in the UK National Archives and saw on a daily basis priceless knowledge just turning to dust, including modern stuff less than a hundred years old!
Looking around my neighbourhood (And even my shared bathroom..) I can say that hygiene is pretty awful these days, it might look all nice at first glance, but look a little closer and your see maggot infested rubbish piled high in peoples gardens thats been there weeks.. (Look at Naples as a good example at the moment..)
Faster communication yes, but then, faster to panic, faster to riots to steal food..
But how fast is analysis, if something breaks out and within days is spreading around the world, I'm concerned it might take us months to find a cure whilst the world falls apart at the edges.
I see knowledge lost every day, from yesterdays computer technology, to how to fix your car. The de-skilling evident in the general population is frightening, practically no one can even tie their own shoe laces these days!
As long as those laptops came with a solar panel to charge them, and someone who knew how to reinstall the OS when they crashed...
The Greeks might well have advanced, but thats conditional on no one having burn't the book to keep warm, or some religious flavour which forbid books/reading...
Just looking around me in my own home, which I share with countless others, its hard to keep pace with the people ripping the heart out of the place because they fail to understand how basic things like the toilet works, how to open a door, or that banister rails are not for playing cricket with!
Talking of Alexandira, reminds me of when I worked in the UK National Archives and saw on a daily basis priceless knowledge just turning to dust, including modern stuff less than a hundred years old!
Sure, as I said it's a general rule. Societies generally progressed through the three-age system....oh yes, and knowledge can indeed be lost.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-age_system
Even if all modern human societies collapsed tomorrow with 99% fatality, say due to an incredibly virulent disease, a supervolcano, massive nuclear war, or a gamma ray burst, the millions of survivors would not go back to a hunter/gatherer lifestyle using stone tools, because they know about things like smelting that can produce vastly superior tools, and that by farming they can produce more food than by hunting/gathering.
It was much worse before indoor plumbing.I can say that hygiene is pretty awful these days
Well, it wouldn't be good for them, but it wouldn't be any worse than the 1950s.Your forgetting that for a lot of familes at the bottom of the economic ladder, that high housing costs mean that if food prices did quadruple, they would be unable to afford food and rent!
Housing is cheaper today than people realize. Now, you may say "But prices are so much higher!" and you would be right, but the amount of square footage per person is also much higher today, building standards are better, and homes come with all kinds of modern conveniences that were less common 50 or 100 years ago. It was common a hundred years ago for 4-5 people to share a space that today would be considered a one-bedroom apartment, with a lack of amenities like indoor plumbing and electricity that would be illegal today.
Check out this chart:
http://books.google.com/books?id=q5DYgY ... 0A4k&hl=en
This is also why you should always be skeptical when you hear things like "Household income has been stagnant for the last 30 years." It's true as far it goes, but it ignores the fact there are less people per household because more people can afford to live on their own.
Well, sure. That's why I chose the Greeks. They were the first rational naturalists, and many discounted the gods' influence entirely. During the great Athenian plague, they rejected the idea of spirits and sought a physical cause. Had you handed them a microbiology textbook and another on optics, they would have devoured them greedily, and been examining bacteria and viruses before long.The Greeks might well have advanced, but thats conditional on no one having burn't the book to keep warm, or some religious flavour which forbid books/reading...
Given access to knowledge, they might recreate modern civilization within a couple hundred years -- and so could we, if ours collapsed.
Outdoor plumbing doesn't end up leaking through your bathroom floor into your kitchen below!
I've seen plenty of homes with an outside toilet far cleaner than other homes with indoor plumbing..
Hmm, square footage, another area to disagree on!
Here in deepest London you get around 1 person per 20 square feet, I'm pretty lucky in that I get a luxury amount of 58 square feet for myself.
There is an awful lot of people living in illegal accomudation these days, and the numbers are going up by the bucket full.
Poor people at least in the UK cannot afford to live on their own, with minumn wage at £6k a year, and rents at £5k that doesn't leave a lot left over! (We only just manage at double the minumn wage in a single rented room (pictures on website..))
I remember just 20 years ago that I could rent a whole 5 bedroom house for £15 ukp a week, now a single room is £90 ukp, doesn't seem cheaper to me..
A 5 bedroom house a few miles from me is rented out at £8,667 a month!
http://www.foxtons.co.uk/search?order_b ... ype=search
I've seen plenty of homes with an outside toilet far cleaner than other homes with indoor plumbing..
Hmm, square footage, another area to disagree on!
Here in deepest London you get around 1 person per 20 square feet, I'm pretty lucky in that I get a luxury amount of 58 square feet for myself.
There is an awful lot of people living in illegal accomudation these days, and the numbers are going up by the bucket full.
Poor people at least in the UK cannot afford to live on their own, with minumn wage at £6k a year, and rents at £5k that doesn't leave a lot left over! (We only just manage at double the minumn wage in a single rented room (pictures on website..))
I remember just 20 years ago that I could rent a whole 5 bedroom house for £15 ukp a week, now a single room is £90 ukp, doesn't seem cheaper to me..
A 5 bedroom house a few miles from me is rented out at £8,667 a month!
http://www.foxtons.co.uk/search?order_b ... ype=search
Heh. Well, the Persians tried, and found out what free men can do in defense of their homes.
Like most older societies, the Greeks were more or less constantly at war. Likely the first thing they would do is build better weapons and conquer their neighbors. Their democracy would probably not become as liberal as ours until living standards had vastly improved.
Like most older societies, the Greeks were more or less constantly at war. Likely the first thing they would do is build better weapons and conquer their neighbors. Their democracy would probably not become as liberal as ours until living standards had vastly improved.
A couple hundred years? Maybe, if the disaster was external and not sociological. Rome had a lot of knowledge and technology, and if the monks hadn't preserved it (and expanded on it), Europe would have taken a lot longer than it did to re-emerge from barbarism...
The people have to WANT to rebuild. Looking around you, do you get the impression of a society with enough willpower to bounce back from something like that? I don't. I'm hopeful for other reasons, but that could get seriously off topic...
The people have to WANT to rebuild. Looking around you, do you get the impression of a society with enough willpower to bounce back from something like that? I don't. I'm hopeful for other reasons, but that could get seriously off topic...
Rome's fall is pretty complicated too. By some measures, the Roman Empire lasted till the fall of Constantinople in 1453, and Rome as a civilization really never fell but continues as Western Civ.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decline_of ... man_Empire
Of course, what really changed things was the Enlightenment.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_enlightenment
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decline_of ... man_Empire
It's hard to say how much knowledge was really lost. Probably in practical terms (metallurgy, agriculture, stoneworking, etc) the loss was minimal.Over time many theories have been proposed on why the Empire fell, or whether indeed it fell at all.
Of course, what really changed things was the Enlightenment.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_enlightenment
I think to collapse a modern society to a pre-Enlightenment state of affairs would be very, very difficult, even at 99.9% levels of depopulation. The knowledge of what reason and science can accomplish lends it so much credibility, you would have to remove all traces of a technological society, or people would quickly come back to the same conclusions.The term "Age of Enlightenment" can more narrowly refer to the intellectual movement of The Enlightenment, which advocated reason as the primary basis of authority. Developing in France, Britain and Germany, the Enlightenment influenced most of Europe, including Russia and Scandinavia. The era is marked by such political changes as governmental consolidation, nation-creation, greater rights for common people, and a decline in the influence of authoritarian institutions such as the nobility and church
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http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/200 ... -fall.html
Decline and Fall
http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/200 ... n-row.html
Desolation Row
Things had been working so well for so long that the government forgot its purpose. Maintain a strong military to protect the trade routes.
http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/200 ... -fall.html
Decline and Fall
http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/200 ... n-row.html
Desolation Row
Things had been working so well for so long that the government forgot its purpose. Maintain a strong military to protect the trade routes.
Engineering is the art of making what you want from what you can get at a profit.
Interesting Card piece. I think his assertion that Pax Americana and the free trade it has engendered are a huge part of our prosperity is inarguably true.
However, I don't agree that we can't live without oil, especially foreign oil. There are alternatives. Again, I have to urge people to read Zubrin's book. It's entirely possible that in 20 years we could import no oil, if we made the decision For instance, even without biofuel, coal can converted to liquid fuel via well-established processes that yield fuel at a cost comparable to today -- and we have a LOT of coal.
I also think he's far too pessimistic about Russia and China.
Their leadership may still be authoritarian, but they are commited to economic liberalization.
I dated a girl from China in college, about ten years ago. We were both pretty apolitical at the time. Chinese are fairly nationalistic, but the younger people tend to view their leadership like a doddering old grandfather who often confuses the TV with the microwave but still insists on ordering everyone in the family around; it's a species of genial, patronizing contempt, leavened with patience built on the knowledge the old fools won't last forever. There's an assumption that as their power wanes, China will continue to liberalize, politically as well as economically.
China has actually become so successful that those looking for cheap labor are now looking elsewhere, to places like Vietnam, because Chinese wages have grown so quickly.
The Olympics will be very interesting, both for the world and for China.
However, I don't agree that we can't live without oil, especially foreign oil. There are alternatives. Again, I have to urge people to read Zubrin's book. It's entirely possible that in 20 years we could import no oil, if we made the decision For instance, even without biofuel, coal can converted to liquid fuel via well-established processes that yield fuel at a cost comparable to today -- and we have a LOT of coal.
I also think he's far too pessimistic about Russia and China.
Very, very, very, very unlikely to be true. China is joining Western Civ. They have tasted the benefits of liberal democracy and will never turn back. A measure of how seriously they take their export business -- the goose that lays the golden egg -- was seen last year when in response to issues of safety invoving food and pet toys that caused them great embarassment and many recalls, a minister of export safety was executed.it is safe to say that China will not have the right conditions for peaceful trade in a few years, for one reason or another.
Their leadership may still be authoritarian, but they are commited to economic liberalization.
I dated a girl from China in college, about ten years ago. We were both pretty apolitical at the time. Chinese are fairly nationalistic, but the younger people tend to view their leadership like a doddering old grandfather who often confuses the TV with the microwave but still insists on ordering everyone in the family around; it's a species of genial, patronizing contempt, leavened with patience built on the knowledge the old fools won't last forever. There's an assumption that as their power wanes, China will continue to liberalize, politically as well as economically.
China has actually become so successful that those looking for cheap labor are now looking elsewhere, to places like Vietnam, because Chinese wages have grown so quickly.
The Olympics will be very interesting, both for the world and for China.