In Obama's America we don't Do hard

Discuss life, the universe, and everything with other members of this site. Get to know your fellow polywell enthusiasts.

Moderators: tonybarry, MSimon

Skipjack
Posts: 6817
Joined: Sun Sep 28, 2008 2:29 pm

Post by Skipjack »

Ok, well while I can not find any more direct reference to this anymore and I dont have the time for all this anyway. I can proof that I did not pull this out of my a$$ either:
Alan Boyle seemingly heard the same:
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/20 ... tails.html
it will use 18 SpaceX designed and manufactured Monomethylhydrazine, Nitrogen Textroxide reaction control, orbital manoeuvring system thrusters; be lunar fly-by capable; have an outer mould design for a lifting re-entry; and be water recoverable for an ocean landing.

93143
Posts: 1142
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 7:51 pm

Post by 93143 »

I hadn't heard that specific quote before, actually. I was, however, aware that Dragon was at least projected to become, or form the basis for, a BEO capsule.

Like I've been saying, I suspect it's lunar-capable in the same sense Soyuz is (ie: Zond). That is, you wouldn't want to try lunar return in a particular capsule that was set up for a LEO mission. I could be wrong, but it seems like a waste of heatshield mass...

I already knew Elon wanted to do exploration - it's in the name of the company, after all. I just don't think he'll be able to make money at it without a NASA contract.

Skipjack
Posts: 6817
Joined: Sun Sep 28, 2008 2:29 pm

Post by Skipjack »

I already knew Elon wanted to do exploration - it's in the name of the company, after all. I just don't think he'll be able to make money at it without a NASA contract.
We will see about that. If you build it, they will come ;)

IntLibber
Posts: 747
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 3:28 pm

Post by IntLibber »

Skipjack wrote:
I already knew Elon wanted to do exploration - it's in the name of the company, after all. I just don't think he'll be able to make money at it without a NASA contract.
We will see about that. If you build it, they will come ;)
Rio Tinto and its associated mining companies just agreed to dump some 3.5 billion into a gold and copper mine in Mongolia in the next five years. The sort of return that asteroid mining can provide is highly profitable.

While there is not yet a business case for a BFR, Elon knows as well that given the rising levels of capital being invested into new mining ventures, that if he can prove he can run a space program far more cheaply than other companies have to date, that mining companies will start seeing space mining ventures as worthwhile risks. Especially when the alternatives (earth) makes anything you carry effectively worth more than diamonds to exist there.

The great thing with a mine in space is you never have to worry about some third world country nationalizing your mine after you've worked and invested to make it profitable.

And a BFR is going to be needed to put mining equipment into space.

I've been going over the estimates that astronomers are making about the content of various asteroids. For instance, Egeria, which is halfway between Mars and Ceres, is over 10% water, which is high for a C class asteroid. This is far far higher than estimates of lunar water, and takes about the same dV. It's a good place to get fuel.

Josh Cryer
Posts: 526
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2008 7:19 am

Re: In Obama's America we don't Do hard

Post by Josh Cryer »

Jccarlton wrote:lately I keep finding things that resonate with me. A couple of weeks ago I posted this on Danny Choos's site after a trip to Flushing Meadows:
http://www.figure.fm/post/en/8795/Dead+Dreams.html
Here's what I posted there:
When I was small I wanted to go into space. I wanted so hard it hurt. As I grew up I was one of the biggest space boosters around. I read science fiction mags like Galaxy and Analog. I read Heinlein, Asimov, Anderson and Pournelle. I joined the National Space Society. My wall was covered with space colony pics. I built space models. I collected books on space engineering. I designed a space habitat for the National Space society's design contest. But that dream has more or less died.
Now American thinker posts this:
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/201 ... space.html
Now America didn't surrender space, the Progressives did. Lots of Americans are still trying:
http://blog.makezine.com/archive/2010/0 ... ss_10.html

But in Obama's america there will be nobody allowed to have the freedom and the drive to put people in space and no wealth to do it. That's one of the saddest parts of Progressivism.
This is the funniest thing I've ever read. :lol:

Cx was a jobs program. Cx would not have had significant manned flight for nearly 20 years. Cx would have abandoned science and robotic precursor exploration. Cx would have scuttled the ISS in 5 years. Cx would have destroyed commercial space just when it was having a tiny chance of happening.

What a joke. What an insult to free thinking individuals who actually saw Cx for what it was. It's infuriating.
Science is what we have learned about how not to fool ourselves about the way the world is.

Josh Cryer
Posts: 526
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2008 7:19 am

Post by Josh Cryer »

BTW, a comment posted here summerizes it perfectly: http://www.time.com/time/health/article ... -2,00.html
The old Griffin Constellation plan never made sense.

Constellation: Build ISS by 2010, don't fund actually using ISS, shut down Shuttle when ISS is done, dump ISS in the ocean in 2016 (i.e. shortly after finishing it) to fund Ares, finish Ares I/Orion capability to reach ISS in 2019 (but ISS is gone by then and Ares I/Orion can't do anything else but reach ISS), finish Ares V by 2028 but with no money for anything to put on it, and finally repeat Apollo in the mid 2030's. Meanwhile slash NASA research and development, robotic HSF precursors, Earth observations, NASA science in general, aeronautics, commercial participation, etc to fund Constellation. Constellation could never have survived until the mid 2030's to reach its first payoff, and even if it did operations would have been too expensive.

With the new plan, we get a lot more, and it's a lot sooner. Even in just the first 5 years we get:


- improved commerial cargo (2 independent systems) to the Space Station
- multiple commercial crew transportation systems to the Space Station
- Orion Lite Crew Return Vehicle
- a new line of large robotic HSF precursor missions
- a new line of “Scout-class” robotic human spaceflight precursors
- ISS (Space Station) will be kept until 2020 or later
- actual use of ISS
- added capabilities on ISS
- additional Shuttle budget to ensure ISS is completed
- modernization of KSC and the Florida launch range
- improved Earth observation budget- much greater asteroid detection budget
- U.S. plutonium-238 production (currently we rely on Russia)
- cost-effective RD-180 equivalent engine (currently we rely on Russia)
- work towards a cost-effective heavy lift rocket
- propulsion research
- exploration technology demonstrations for propellant depots, automated rendezvous and docking, inflatable habitats, landing, use of resources found in space, in-space propulsion, closed-loop life support, EVAs/servicing, radiation shielding, human-robot interactivity, space power, materials and structures, and participatory exploration
- improved Aeronautics budget
- 42% increase in human research exploration budget
- huge increase in general space technology research, development, and demonstration budget
Anyone who thinks that NASA was on a good path is destructive to America and what America stands for. NASA was festering, a jobs program of epic proportions.

If someone brave makes a COTS bid for Sea Dragon, and succeeds, we will be able to freaking colonize space for pennies on the dollar. I myself do not have the werewithall to do it, but this forum is full of engineers. Read the original Sea Dragon paperwork (1), and get together, form a company, and make a bid!

Hell, half of you guys were in the Navy. It's perfectly dooable for you guys. NASA is sitting around waiting to hand out billions.

Make a bid!

Or is it too hard?

(1) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Dragon_(rocket)
Science is what we have learned about how not to fool ourselves about the way the world is.

Betruger
Posts: 2321
Joined: Tue May 06, 2008 11:54 am

Post by Betruger »

Too hard, like the opposition DIRECT faced. Now multiply that inertia by all the extra factors Sea Dragon would invite.

What's worse than jaded, bitter pragmatists? Idealism tempered with too little or even no sense of brass tacks (I'm not pointing this one at you Josh).

IMHO the problem with Sea Dragon is the same as all the good varients of truly "cheaper, faster" solutions floated recently: How to sell it to the politicks. SD would probably have to be sold to the public as well. There's a couple of posts inside a long recent(ish) thread at NSF. In it one of the more or less seasoned professionals (or at least someone who's been dipped into the environment for long enough) ridicules the idea of the size of a solar powered VASIMR shuttle for Mars. He says the size (truly huge, but sound engineering) would never be sold to the incredulous public.

Skipjack
Posts: 6817
Joined: Sun Sep 28, 2008 2:29 pm

Post by Skipjack »

Anyone who thinks that NASA was on a good path is destructive to America and what America stands for. NASA was festering, a jobs program of epic proportions.
Agreed

93143
Posts: 1142
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 7:51 pm

Post by 93143 »

Just a minor point I forgot about, regarding Dragon's hypothetical BEO capability:

It doesn't have a service module. This means its delta-V is very limited, not enough for realistic BEO operations.

The capsule itself may be designed to expand into a BEO role, but without a service module, the only thing it can do is free return, or return from L2 or maybe L1, or moving between two L-points. TEI from LLO is out, as is anything else requiring significant delta-V.

If Elon wants Dragon to do BEO missions (and I suspect he does), he'll have to add a service module.

Skipjack
Posts: 6817
Joined: Sun Sep 28, 2008 2:29 pm

Post by Skipjack »

I dont get the point of a service module being required for the delta V. Wouldnt a separate earth- departure stage (two launches and docking in LEO) do the trick sufficiently?

93143
Posts: 1142
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 7:51 pm

Post by 93143 »

Skipjack wrote:I dont get the point of a service module being required for the delta V. Wouldnt a separate earth- departure stage (two launches and docking in LEO) do the trick sufficiently?
An EDS is generally expended at the end of TLI, or at the very latest after LOI. If it's not, it counts as a really huge service module (see the ULA "master plan").

Currently SpaceX has no stages that could perform this role. Their cryo stage is yet to be developed, and its boiloff characteristics are unlikely to be good enough. The Falcon 9 upperstage doesn't have the performance (I calculate about 4.9 km/s with a 10 mT Dragon on top, which isn't enough for a lunar mission), and AFAIK is not designed for extended loiter even with LOX.

Skipjack
Posts: 6817
Joined: Sun Sep 28, 2008 2:29 pm

Post by Skipjack »

You got a point there 93143.
I cant say anything to disarm that at the moment and probably only the people at SpaceX know what the plan is for BEO exploration.
Could it be that that Falcon 9 heavy version would be more suitable for this?

Josh Cryer
Posts: 526
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2008 7:19 am

Post by Josh Cryer »

Betruger, the thing is, it would be a commercial bid, what "opposition" could there be? Is there "opposition" to Dream Chaser? Maybe a little, from crazy Cx'ers, but not from the public at large, which is largely ambivalent about space. And certainly not from contractors already involved on their own rocket program (DIRECT gets opposition because 1) it is overly optimistic with costs estimations and 2) it threatens the status quo).

I'm sure I am an idealist, no doubt. I personally plan to, in a year or more, explore a Sea Dragon approach from a simulation perspective, once I can build my own super cluster (32 AMD Phenom II 4X's clustered). I'm told that the reason rocket engines cost so much is that they build upwards of a dozen test engines, each one costing millions. However, with computers and fluid dynamic software, you may be able to reduce those costs so that your first or third engine prototype is sufficient.

That's the key problem with Sea Dragon. The whole thing is no more complex than a tanker ship (the kind that the Koreans assemble on the order of tens of thousand a year). Everything hinges on a design that can operate with pressure fed propellent. There's a guy down in NZ who is trying to build a Sea Dragon, he doesn't have a lot of funding and I've talked to him about setting up a proxy company in the US to get a COTS bid, short of actually offering to do it myself. I don't have permission to really discuss the details of his approach, but it's pretty brilliant. I can probably state that he plans to build it using the massive Korean shipbuilding infrastructure. An American company probably wouldn't be looked at kindly if they did that (even though it would reduce costs by a magnitude), *however*, America's ship building is almost completely limited to navy ships and custom yaghts. I know that several of our ship yards have closed down over the past few decades, so a Sea Dragon program would reinvigorate our "ship building industry" and create a magnitude more jobs than any other approach. It just takes someone to set up a bid.

There's also the tiny problem of COTS requiring a company to show that they have the money on hand to accomplish their goals. So if you say "Our company wants to build a Sea Dragon Engine for $250 million, with such and such milestone," you must be able to prove that your company can meet that milestone. Say the first milestone is proving that you can ignite pressure fed propellent at such and such lbf, it will give you $20 million to accomplish that. You have to have $20 million on hand to do it.
Science is what we have learned about how not to fool ourselves about the way the world is.

93143
Posts: 1142
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 7:51 pm

Post by 93143 »

...huh. I can't find any hard data to back it up, but there have been claims that if you're careful, Dragon can be used as a crew taxi/return vehicle for an L2-staged lunar mission, or even an interplanetary mission. Of course, this plan requires that the EDS still be good after three days, and it loads extra requirements onto the mission module (no dual-docked Dragon missions to NEOs)...

Also, it turns out I may have overestimated the Dragon's mass. The LEO version is about 8 mT. That's probably the cargo version - the crew version might be heavier, and a BEO version would definitely be heavier - but if the BEO version could be kept down below 9 mT or so, a full F9US (filled at a depot) might be able to provide enough delta-V that the Dragon's onboard thrusters could plausibly finish the TEI from LLO, provided the lander has its own separate TLI/LOI stage and the Dragon stack doesn't have to push it anywhere. I don't like it, though, because the mass and propellant margins are a bit tight, and it requires the F9US to last through almost the entire mission.

I guess the technical possibility of using Dragon as a return vehicle for BEO missions without extra stage development depends on the loiter capability of the F9US, and on whether or not it supports on-orbit propellant transfer (it probably doesn't, which means this plan is DOA unless the feature is somehow easy to add). You also need a very capable mission module, and a means of getting that to wherever you're going...
Skipjack wrote:Could it be that that Falcon 9 heavy version would be more suitable for this?
No. According to the website, F9H is just a F9 with strapons, meaning the upperstage is the same. My calculations assumed a completely full upperstage, which means a depot is required (unless you want to daisy-chain multiple stages, which the stages probably aren't designed to support). A stretched stage might help, but it would have to be pretty big to work, since the propellant load required is much larger than the published payload for the F9H, and stretching increases the dry mass...

The Raptor-powered upperstage would be better delta-V-wise, but even the ACES architecture needs a depot, so I doubt very much that this one won't. In addition, the ACES stage is the culmination of 40 years of cryogenic stage design experience, and SpaceX has none whatsoever - I doubt SpaceX will be able to get the boiloff rate low enough for operation as a service module, never mind a depot...

Skipjack
Posts: 6817
Joined: Sun Sep 28, 2008 2:29 pm

Post by Skipjack »

Yeah, of course they would need a new upper stage design, but I am sure that they can do that just as well as they do the rest.
Well, lets let them make it into LEO first with Falcon9 before we send them all the way BEO.
I am sure that they already have plans for BEO stuff somewhere on their harddrives. I am sure they want to get the other things right before they move on to that though.

Post Reply