Iran may have acquired Nuclear War Heads.

[Diogenes]

I think that if we allow Iran to obtain the CAPABILITY to nuke Israel, we will have committed the worst possible folly, and we will have condemned millions of people to death.

By your principle, the world would have been destroyed in WW3 a long time ago. It was not. There were some nuts in the Soviet hierarchy as well (communism is a sort of religion as well), but they never made a nuclear strike.

I do not believe that Atheistic power hungry nuts are the same thing as Islamic religious Fanatic nuts who WANT an Armageddon. The Soviet Nuts want to enjoy their position of power and prestige while they are still LIVING. Islamic nuts, not so much.

MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) will seemingly work on Soviet style nuts. It WILL NOT work on "end of the world" type Religious nuts. As it was, World War III almost happened as a result of malfunctioning Soviet Missile detection hardware.

[
Also, I am not willing to send my son into a war over this, I am really not. Let them sort it out among themelves! Why do we always have to bother with other peoples problems especially SINCE NOBODY LIKES US FOR DOING SO? In case you have not noticed...
If you, we keep interfering, all we will do is generate more hatred against us.

No one wants their sons in war. Sometimes war comes to us whether we want it or not. Had Jimmy Carter not been President, we likely wouldn't be dealing with the Fiasco that is Iran now.

If they go an kill lots of people, then they will attract the hatred of others. If we go and kill lots of people as a preemptive strike, we are the ones who will most likely attract the hatred of others. So if we (as the west) do a preemptive strike we have to make darn sure that we really had no other choice! My scoop is that the mossad would figure out if Iran was about to launch an attack probably long before their generals even know and then it is time to react. This is what intelligence is for.
Besides, right now Iran still has no capability whatsoever. All they have done is talk big words and as I said, all dicators do that, because it helps them control their people. The moment they appear weak, their heads come off.

I'm all for stopping them with peaceful means. I just don't expect it to work given how hard they are driving for Nuclear weapons. I believe it was the Dutch that trained Khan, wasn't it? Sounds like your neighbor folks have some responsibility for this.

[Skipjack]

Ahmadinejad is sitting on a very wobbly chair. He almost was already tobbled in the last movement there. How long do you think, he can last like this? I say he will be gone soon enough.
If you were to attack now, as a preemptive strike, you could destroy everything the opposition has been fighting for. There will always be collateral damage. You have to understand that. There are no surgical strikes. Innocent people will die and any father that looses a child to that will hate you and run back to Ahmadinejad... This may not be a rational reaction, but people there are commonly hot blooded and emotional pain makes them react irrationally.
Anyway, you will weaken the opposition there, when you interfere.
A clever leader would use intelligence to support the opposition and make sure that information harmful to the government there reaches the public. Then the rest will regulate itself and any bloodshed the government there does to prevent this from happening will only backfire at them. Show videos and pictures of innocents killed by the government there (as has already happened), make infor harmful to them go viral. Work in the background and you will succeed.
As I said, I am very much in doubt that any of the so called religious leaders there, really believe half the crap they are saying.

[bcglorf]

If only we had some intelligent fellow with access to the best intelligence information in some strong position of authority that could act on such information, and who's judgement we could trust.

Careful there. That sounds like you've abandoned pragmatism and become an idealist...

[Skipjack]

I do not believe that Atheistic power hungry nuts are the same thing as Islamic religious Fanatic nuts who WANT an Armageddon. The Soviet Nuts want to enjoy their position of power and prestige while they are still LIVING. Islamic nuts, not so much.

MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) will seemingly work on Soviet style nuts. It WILL NOT work on "end of the world" type Religious nuts.

You still dont get it, do you? Are you really that naive? Religion is the means to an end for the so called islamic leaders. They are in NO WAY different from any religious or ideologic leader to ever walk the face of this earth. I would say that 99.9999% of all them never believed their own crap.
Religion or ideology (which really is just a relgion without a deity) is a very easy way to control the common, uneducated and simpleminded folk.
You can pretty much get them to do anything for you by using religion as a motivator.
Do you really think that the whole gripes with Israel is a religiously motivated? This is absolutely ridiculous! Religion has nothing to do with it!
It is politics. The islamic leadership wants a single, united arab nation. Islam is what will allow them to do that.
The Koran is written in arabic and must not be translated. So the kids do learn arabic in school. The islamic influence on local culture and tradition is very strong. This allows them to overcome cultural differences more easily. The rest is just using the writings as a means to make people do your biddings, follow you without questioning and to unite them to a common enemy (as usually someone or some people is "the satan" again) against whom "all righteous" followers of language a have to stand together blah, blah, blah, yadda, yadda, yadda. Its been the same for thousands of years, still is the same now. Easy to see through.
Ahmadinejad, wants to stay alive like anybody in is poistion, I can promise you that. He is spewing insanity, but I am sure he is just as power hungy and greedy as anybody else.
Do you think that Kim Jong Il really believes his own crap? If so, why would he put his sons as his successors then? This seems rather "imperialist" to me and not very much in the communist spirit. Is it?
As I said, all the same.

[bcglorf]

How long do you think, he can last like this? I say he will be gone soon enough.

By soon enough, you mean before Iran's nuclear weapons program bears fruit, right? Because if that happens first, the movement will die. A civil war or uprising is no longer a win for anybody after the republican guard has nukes. Better an all out ground war prior to that.

If you were to attack now, as a preemptive strike, you could destroy everything the opposition has been fighting for.

No, not could, it Would destroy everything the opposition has been fighting for. The problem is that the regime acquiring nukes will do the same thing. For the Iranians it's just about as bad either way. For us, at least a strike prior to their acquiring nukes localizes the problem somewhat.

As I said, I am very much in doubt that any of the so called religious leaders there, really believe half the crap they are saying.

But does that even matter? They act on what they say, the subordinates and military under them act on what they say. They used kids to clear minefields during the Iran-Iraq war, and managed it by wrapping religious symbols around the kids necks so they'd go straight to heaven. Where is the comfort in questioning what they really believe? Their actions are what matter, and thus far they have actively supported, trained, and armed militants in order to launch attacks directly against Israel. They are running an active nuclear weapons program. Oh, and those militants their training have been using banners at rallies lately that include mushroom clouds over Israel.

Can you honestly give better than 50/50 odds the Ayatollah's wouldn't let Hezbollah have a nuclear device?

[bcglorf]

The islamic leadership wants a single, united arab nation. Islam is what will allow them to do that.

The Iranian Ayatollahs most certainly do NOT want a single, united Arab nation. A single, united Arab nation would go to war with them, as they did before using Saddam as their proxy. The Iranians are NOT Arabs, they are Islamic Persians.

Are similar subtle misunderstandings guiding the rest of your left turns where I go right?

You can pretty much get them to do anything for you by using religion as a motivator.

Agreed. That's what's so scary.

Do you really think that the whole gripes with Israel is a religiously motivated? This is absolutely ridiculous! Religion has nothing to do with it!

Wait. It was YOUR argument that the threats against Israel could be dismissed because they were just so much religiously motivated pablum for the masses. If the hatred and plotting against Israel is not religiously motivated, then don't we need to take the threats against as deadly serious still?

[Skipjack]

By soon enough, you mean before Iran's nuclear weapons program bears fruit, right? Because if that happens first, the movement will die. A civil war or uprising is no longer a win for anybody after the republican guard has nukes. Better an all out ground war prior to that.

I dont see it that way at all. Why would that be?

The Iranian Ayatollahs most certainly do NOT want a single, united Arab nation. A single, united Arab nation would go to war with them, as they did before using Saddam as their proxy. The Iranians are NOT Arabs, they are Islamic Persians.

Oh yes they do. They all do. They dont want the Saudis to lead the united arab nation, if you missunderstood me there. Pretty much any arab including the iranians hates the house of Saud.
And the persians are genetically different from the arabs exactly by how much by now?
You still think in classes and countries. This is outdated thinking. You need to think in genetic relationship.

Wait. It was YOUR argument that the threats against Israel could be dismissed because they were just so much religiously motivated pablum for the masses. If the hatred and plotting against Israel is not religiously motivated, then don't we need to take the threats against as deadly serious still?

Again, you missunderstand me here.
The rhetoric against Israel is religious, but the real issue with Israel is not religious. Israel is just the common enemy that they use to unite their people by putting the religious differences in the foreground.
There are also some very mundane and absolutely not religiously motivated territorials disputes that the religious leaders often translate into a religious issue. The territorial disputes themselves are only local though. Why the heck would the average Iranian care about Israel, otherwise? Its what? 1000 km away? The only ones caring are the leaders high up, who have a much bigger picture in mind. And these leaders are the ones using religion as a means to rally their people against Israel and they use that to keep them in line. "We need to stand together against the satan blah, blah, blah". Preach it every Friday in the mosque and at some point a sufficiently large part of the gullible population will believe it to support you.
What is playing against these religious leaders is the modern means of communication and education. Iranians have internet most of the time and they have cellphones and stuff does spread via these new media and the young part of the population that is not intellectually challenged, has left the old idiots in the mosques behind a long time ago.

[Diogenes]

If only we had some intelligent fellow with access to the best intelligence information in some strong position of authority that could act on such information, and who's judgement we could trust.

Careful there. That sounds like you've abandoned pragmatism and become an idealist...

It was meant half in jest. The other half was completely serious. This is the worst possible time in World History to have a moron in charge of the United States. Well, maybe not THE worst time, but it's a pretty BAD time.

[Diogenes]

I do not believe that Atheistic power hungry nuts are the same thing as Islamic religious Fanatic nuts who WANT an Armageddon. The Soviet Nuts want to enjoy their position of power and prestige while they are still LIVING. Islamic nuts, not so much.

MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) will seemingly work on Soviet style nuts. It WILL NOT work on "end of the world" type Religious nuts.

You still dont get it, do you? Are you really that naive? Religion is the means to an end for the so called islamic leaders. They are in NO WAY different from any religious or ideologic leader to ever walk the face of this earth. I would say that 99.9999% of all them never believed their own crap.
Religion or ideology (which really is just a relgion without a deity) is a very easy way to control the common, uneducated and simpleminded folk.
You can pretty much get them to do anything for you by using religion as a motivator.
Do you really think that the whole gripes with Israel is a religiously motivated? This is absolutely ridiculous! Religion has nothing to do with it!
It is politics. The islamic leadership wants a single, united arab nation. Islam is what will allow them to do that.
The Koran is written in arabic and must not be translated. So the kids do learn arabic in school. The islamic influence on local culture and tradition is very strong. This allows them to overcome cultural differences more easily. The rest is just using the writings as a means to make people do your biddings, follow you without questioning and to unite them to a common enemy (as usually someone or some people is "the satan" again) against whom "all righteous" followers of language a have to stand together blah, blah, blah, yadda, yadda, yadda. Its been the same for thousands of years, still is the same now. Easy to see through.
Ahmadinejad, wants to stay alive like anybody in is poistion, I can promise you that. He is spewing insanity, but I am sure he is just as power hungy and greedy as anybody else.
Do you think that Kim Jong Il really believes his own crap? If so, why would he put his sons as his successors then? This seems rather "imperialist" to me and not very much in the communist spirit. Is it?
As I said, all the same.

No, I don't get it. I've SEEN nuts behave like nuts, and do things that only a nut would do. I have no doubt that a nut will do a nutty thing. I find your argument that they really aren't nuts unpersuasive.

[bcglorf]

I dont see it that way at all. Why would that be?

You'll have to clarify that. What part don't you see that way. Surely you see at least that an Iranian civil goes from desirable now, to very much less desirable after the leadership is armed with nukes?

Oh yes they do. They all do. They dont want the Saudis to lead the united arab nation, if you missunderstood me there.

No, I understood you fine. The part you misunderstood, and still seem to, is that Iranians aren't Arab. They are very proudly Persian, which, despite your attestations, is to them very distinct from Arabic.

And the persians are genetically different from the arabs exactly by how much by now?

By about as much as the Jews...

You still think in classes and countries. This is outdated thinking. You need to think in genetic relationship.

You seem to be rejecting reality. The Iran-Iraq war wasn't an American proxy war over the Iranian revolution. It was a an outright war between Arabs and Persians, with the overwhelming balance of funding coming from Sunni Arabs who wanted to remove the threat of Shia Persians holding a power base.

Unfortunately racism and religious intolerance never seems to be outdated, and both of those are divide between Iran's Ayatollahs and the Arab community.

The rhetoric against Israel is religious, but the real issue with Israel is not religious.

Then you have no point. The rhetoric is meaningless, but the real issue remains? What kind of a point are you making?
How many times have leaders pointed to the foreign boogeyman without resorting to taking a couple swings at the boogeyman? History seems to suggest the people are must united against a foe the more aggressive the REAL relationship with that foe is. I'm not seeing any comfort here, do you?

Iranians have internet most of the time and they have cellphones and stuff does spread via these new media and the young part of the population that is not intellectually challenged, has left the old idiots in the mosques behind a long time ago.

And on that we are agreed. There is still a lot of hope to be held out that those youth can steer things in their nation straight. The point is they are on a tight timeline, and that means we are as well. How well would the Libyan revolution have gone if Gaddafi had a nuclear arsenal? The world would've rebuked him, and refused to intervene, and he'd have killed off all rebels already. Iran's youth may have a bigger base of support than Libya's rebels, but do we really want a civil war rattling the Republican Guard's security when they have nukes. A nuke in Jerusalem might be a quick road to uniting enough Iranians behind them to hold onto power...

[Skipjack]

Surely you see at least that an Iranian civil goes from desirable now, to very much less desirable after the leadership is armed with nukes?

No I dont see that. Why would that make any difference? You think that they would fear their government to much then? It is a silly assumption, IMHO...

No, I understood you fine. The part you misunderstood, and still seem to, is that Iranians aren't Arab. They are very proudly Persian, which, despite your attestations, is to them very distinct from Arabic.

No, you dont get me. As I said, there are cultural and social differences, but certain leaders and a not to underestimate part of the people there seeks to overcome the issues via the means of manipulating the public that I described. In fact, it is already happening!

By about as much as the Jews...

Oh dear... the jewish have more in common with the Europeans now than the semites that they used to be, genetically anyway.

Then you have no point.

Yes, I do have a point, because if you take the religious aspect out of the equation, then you suddenly just deal with the normal nut and the religious suicidal nut and then the situation is very different.

How well would the Libyan revolution have gone if Gaddafi had a nuclear arsenal? The world would've rebuked him, and refused to intervene, and he'd have killed off all rebels already.

You really think that? I think that the US interference has hurt more than it has helped. In the short term it might have helped the rebels hold ground, but in the long term it has not contributed to the cause.
If Gaddafi kills everyone and the rest flees his terror, then he his country will be in disarray, he will loose money left and right and finally run out of money to pay his henchmen who will then turn on him.
Word will just spread about him being an evil supressor and he wont do anything about it.
This is their battle, their internal matter. They have to fight it out and we should not interfere. As I said before, our intereference is IMHO harmful to the cause of the rebels.

[bcglorf]

Why would that make any difference? You think that they would fear their government to much then?

No, not at all. As I said later in my post, the problem is what the nuclear armed Republican Guard is going to do when desperate. If their choice is lose power or start a nuclear exchange with Israel to unify the Iranian middle...

As I said, there are cultural and social differences, but certain leaders and a not to underestimate part of the people there seeks to overcome the issues via the means of manipulating the public that I described.

Just give this line up. Admit you meant something other than a united Arab nation, like an Islamic state or middle eastern union. Persians will still be Persian and insisting otherwise is a little... silly

I think that the US interference has hurt more than it has helped.

You are wrong. Every one of the defectors from Gaddafi's government have agreed that the nation was 24hrs from a genocide that would've ended the entire rebellion before the nasty US interference.

If Gaddafi kills everyone and the rest flees his terror, then he his country will be in disarray, he will loose money left and right and finally run out of money to pay his henchmen who will then turn on him.
Word will just spread about him being an evil supressor and he wont do anything about it.
This is their battle, their internal matter. They have to fight it out and we should not interfere.

Yeah, how's that working out so far for Kim Il-Sung's regime?

[Skipjack]

No, not at all. As I said later in my post, the problem is what the nuclear armed Republican Guard is going to do when desperate. If their choice is lose power or start a nuclear exchange with Israel to unify the Iranian middle...

Seems unrealistic to me. They would have their hands full with the people on the streets. IMHO the prospect of a nuclear exchange with Israel would only help their cause, IF Iran clearly was the first to be agressive there.

Every one of the defectors from Gaddafi's government have agreed that the nation was 24hrs from a genocide that would've ended the entire rebellion before the nasty US interference.

And you think the rest of the population would have just watched that happening and then lived on with business as usual?
I very much doubt that.

Yeah, how's that working out so far for Kim Il-Sung's regime?

The situation there is quite a bit different. North Korea is completely isolated as are its citizens. They can not communicate witht he outside and they have to way of getting real information in from the outside.
Lybia is much more advanced in about every aspect.

[bcglorf]

Seems unrealistic to me. They would have their hands full with the people on the streets. IMHO the prospect of a nuclear exchange with Israel would only help their cause, IF Iran clearly was the first to be agressive there.

So your confident that even if desperate and facing their own violent overthrow, you aren't afraid what the Republican Guard might do with their nuclear arsenal? I am.

And you think the rest of the population would have just watched that happening and then lived on with business as usual?
I very much doubt that.

The whole of recorded history disagrees with you. The population would either try to flee or continue on with business as usual under a sadistic dictator, such as that is. It may be unpopular to admit, but mass murder and collective punishment DO work. They work spectacularly well. So well that they are almost never overcome by domestic dissent.

[Skipjack]

So your confident that even if desperate and facing their own violent overthrow, you aren't afraid what the Republican Guard might do with their nuclear arsenal? I am.

Yes, I am. They would still need many people to make this work. I think that they would loose. Plus, especially in this turmoil, our intelligence would have an easier time figuring out what is going on and prevent the worst.
Also, so far, we only have a rumor that they have nukes. I very much doubt it. And even if they had a nuke, a single nuke does not make you a nuclear power.

The whole of recorded history disagrees with you.

I see it differently. Right now I cant think of many dictators that died in bed.
Anyway, I think that it is not our business to change the governments in this country, Plus the campaign against Gaddafi is ridiculous anyway.
What is the goal?
Officially the goal is not to remove Gaddafi.
So what is the goal?
It is idiotic a campaign. Gaddafi is the problem and he should be removed. If you dont want to remove him, then why the campaign?
It is a big, giant mess and being involved with a mess is always bad.

Regardint Iran: If we started a full blown preemptive strike against Iran right now. What would happen? People there would get angry and hostility against the US would grow again. Iran would fall back into the state it was in right after the Shah right after the revolution, when the US was really unpopular.
IMHO a better way would be to use intelligence to fire up the reistance against the mullahs and then let the iranian people handle the rest.
It is more subtle and it costs much less. Plus, we will not be remembered by many iranians as someone who killed children in collateral damage (human shields or not, they are collateral damage and it will be used against us).