A barrel of oil finally hit 100 dollars. The US dollar is shrinking.
Please read this article that explains everything
I feel the US economy is heading for a massive crash and even in the face of positive scientific results the general economic climate in the future may not be helpfull or supportive to the innovation and investment needed to see something the scale of a net power polywell come to fruition inside the US.
Your thoughts ?
The future US economy and the polywell
The future US economy and the polywell
Purity is Power
The dollar is down 8% (I forget the time period) oil is up 40% do the math.
Oil in tanks is at an all time high.
Once the price starts declining you will find out what real world production capacity is.
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http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2007/11/top ... -last.html
Oil consumption in the U.S. fell by 1.3% in 2006 and world-wide demand grew only 0.60%.
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http://oregonguythinks.blogspot.com/200 ... d-oil.html
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Humans are driven by greed and fear. Right now buyers are in fear. Wait 'til that happens to the sellers.
Oil in tanks is at an all time high.
Once the price starts declining you will find out what real world production capacity is.
==
http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2007/11/top ... -last.html
Oil consumption in the U.S. fell by 1.3% in 2006 and world-wide demand grew only 0.60%.
==
http://oregonguythinks.blogspot.com/200 ... d-oil.html
==
Humans are driven by greed and fear. Right now buyers are in fear. Wait 'til that happens to the sellers.
Now that I have answered your link, let me answer your question.
If the WB-7 is a success and Congress announces a crash program expect the dollar to rise and oil to fall. On expectation.
Because you will be buying your WB-25s, WB-50s, WB-100s, WB-250s, WB-500s, WB-1000s, from America or under American license. At least at first.
Simon
Let me add - when every one sees gold as a good deal, it has peaked or soon will.
If the WB-7 is a success and Congress announces a crash program expect the dollar to rise and oil to fall. On expectation.
Because you will be buying your WB-25s, WB-50s, WB-100s, WB-250s, WB-500s, WB-1000s, from America or under American license. At least at first.
Simon
Let me add - when every one sees gold as a good deal, it has peaked or soon will.
Plenty of slips between cup and lip, MSimon. There's still a nonzero (perhaps even majority, if you believe Todd Rider) prospect that WB-7 never sees the light of day, or doesn't work if it does. There's many, many technical details yet to be ironed out. And they first have to get to D-D or D-T fusion. (If it does, the Chinese will buy one and copy it.)
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jlumartinez
- Posts: 143
- Joined: Thu Jun 28, 2007 7:29 pm
- Location: Spain
Sorry...but I thought that Polywell was an improvement for all the mankind, not only for the US... as I have realized right now reading your posts about paying you money in case of success.
Now I really hope any other country make it working before the US. I have seen a double personality: in one face you speak about the goodness for mankind if Polywell works and in the other face you hope to success to get a domestic economical improvement for holding the patent. This is not fair play.
Now I really hope any other country make it working before the US. I have seen a double personality: in one face you speak about the goodness for mankind if Polywell works and in the other face you hope to success to get a domestic economical improvement for holding the patent. This is not fair play.
jlumartinez,
I see nothing wrong from profiting from technology advances. No profit no advances.
It is for all mankind. That does not make it free.
This is going to cost a bundle to develop quickly. The developers should profit.
Think about Westinghouse. They made the steam turbine ubiquitous. All mankind has profited. So has Westinghouse.
BTW if any country wants to go ahead with the research I have laid out a blue print at:
http://iecfusiontech.blogspot.com/
Have a go. Certainly the EU is capable of pulling it off.Or the Japanese. Or the Chinese. Even the Indians or the Russians. The only thing lacking in those places is the imagination and the will. It seems the USA has those in over abundance. There should be a reward for taking the risk.
Once the first reactors are built a lot of work will be needed to improve them. It will have to come out of profit.
Heck. I'd like to profit in some way.
The surest way to get this technology distributed is to make it profitable. Just think about the illegal drug market. As long as it is profitable they get delivered despite the efforts of all the governments of the world.
In any case the US Navy probably has first dibs. Then the Air Force. Then civilian applications. Probably like the roll out of the first nuclear power reactors.
Profit is also what you need to cover for errors.
In any case patents have a 20 year life span. So that is the maximum delay possible. Compare that to ITER which doesn't expect to have a net power reactor for 40 years or more. So worst case half the delay of ITER. More likely a 5 year delay.
My guess is the US Gov. will license it to more than one company and collect royalties. They backed it when no one else would. They deserve the return. Plus they need to cover all the other bets that didn't work out.
In theory the EU is richer than America. Also stupider - because of the typical socialist push for efficiency. Let the "experts" decide the "best" approach and put all the money into that. In America we do it different. Diversification. Because we know we are not as smart as we pretend to be. Which is one of the reasons the AGW scare hasn't moved us off the dime. A lot of people believe that the high priests (pardon me Climate Scientists) are not infallible.
Really. This is a different country (as a whole). We do not think like the rest of the world. At this point I do believe it has become not just cultural but also genetic. Risk takers come to America. For 400+ years. They are still coming to America. You want to know how bad it is? Palestinians hate America. If they could leave their "country" where would they prefer to go if the choice was open? America.
Plus ever hear this one: "I'm an American. I just wasn't born there." We have heard it in America.
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However, there is still time. I think if the EU gathered up $20 million (less in Euros). And about 15 of their best people and gave the project industrial priority, they could beat WB-7. Or at least tie. They would have contributed and thus have a claim.
I have been told by a number of people that if WB-7 works raising $1 bn in venture capital would be no problem. None at all. Probably 4 to 8 weeks to do the deal. Speed like that has got to be worth something.
BTW the computer you are using? I bet some American companies profited on its sale. Do you object? I was part of a thriving hacker community by '76. By '78 I had an I/O board in production (it went into the world's first BBS). Where were the Euros? Why did it happen in America? It is the spirit of the place.
That spirit should be honored with profit.
Just take IEC Fusion. Know any Euro sites dedicated to the subject that are getting significant traffic? You know the high traffic Euro blog for fusion only is ITER fan club. How lame is that?
Man this is getting way OT.
In any case jl. Get tooled up. When the Euros figure out which end of the cigarette to light they are going to need trained help.
I see nothing wrong from profiting from technology advances. No profit no advances.
It is for all mankind. That does not make it free.
This is going to cost a bundle to develop quickly. The developers should profit.
Think about Westinghouse. They made the steam turbine ubiquitous. All mankind has profited. So has Westinghouse.
BTW if any country wants to go ahead with the research I have laid out a blue print at:
http://iecfusiontech.blogspot.com/
Have a go. Certainly the EU is capable of pulling it off.Or the Japanese. Or the Chinese. Even the Indians or the Russians. The only thing lacking in those places is the imagination and the will. It seems the USA has those in over abundance. There should be a reward for taking the risk.
Once the first reactors are built a lot of work will be needed to improve them. It will have to come out of profit.
Heck. I'd like to profit in some way.
The surest way to get this technology distributed is to make it profitable. Just think about the illegal drug market. As long as it is profitable they get delivered despite the efforts of all the governments of the world.
In any case the US Navy probably has first dibs. Then the Air Force. Then civilian applications. Probably like the roll out of the first nuclear power reactors.
Profit is also what you need to cover for errors.
In any case patents have a 20 year life span. So that is the maximum delay possible. Compare that to ITER which doesn't expect to have a net power reactor for 40 years or more. So worst case half the delay of ITER. More likely a 5 year delay.
My guess is the US Gov. will license it to more than one company and collect royalties. They backed it when no one else would. They deserve the return. Plus they need to cover all the other bets that didn't work out.
In theory the EU is richer than America. Also stupider - because of the typical socialist push for efficiency. Let the "experts" decide the "best" approach and put all the money into that. In America we do it different. Diversification. Because we know we are not as smart as we pretend to be. Which is one of the reasons the AGW scare hasn't moved us off the dime. A lot of people believe that the high priests (pardon me Climate Scientists) are not infallible.
Really. This is a different country (as a whole). We do not think like the rest of the world. At this point I do believe it has become not just cultural but also genetic. Risk takers come to America. For 400+ years. They are still coming to America. You want to know how bad it is? Palestinians hate America. If they could leave their "country" where would they prefer to go if the choice was open? America.
Plus ever hear this one: "I'm an American. I just wasn't born there." We have heard it in America.
======
However, there is still time. I think if the EU gathered up $20 million (less in Euros). And about 15 of their best people and gave the project industrial priority, they could beat WB-7. Or at least tie. They would have contributed and thus have a claim.
I have been told by a number of people that if WB-7 works raising $1 bn in venture capital would be no problem. None at all. Probably 4 to 8 weeks to do the deal. Speed like that has got to be worth something.
BTW the computer you are using? I bet some American companies profited on its sale. Do you object? I was part of a thriving hacker community by '76. By '78 I had an I/O board in production (it went into the world's first BBS). Where were the Euros? Why did it happen in America? It is the spirit of the place.
That spirit should be honored with profit.
Just take IEC Fusion. Know any Euro sites dedicated to the subject that are getting significant traffic? You know the high traffic Euro blog for fusion only is ITER fan club. How lame is that?
Man this is getting way OT.
In any case jl. Get tooled up. When the Euros figure out which end of the cigarette to light they are going to need trained help.
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jlumartinez
- Posts: 143
- Joined: Thu Jun 28, 2007 7:29 pm
- Location: Spain
I am sorry fo getting you mad. It wasn´t my intention. But you have shown a hidden side without big cause (only read again my previous post to see my subject) . I am glad you internally feel proud of being american, this is the big thing of your country, your identity maked up in just nothing more than 150 years. Not all you have said is true: some maybe yes, some completely not. I am well-mannered and I will reject to answer. This is a technical forum and I will keep my ideas to be shared in others places. I only will say one: "Fanaticism is the root cause of all bad". This is why I always try to have more and more friends everywhere.
Oldest continuously operating democracy on the planet. There might be a reason for that.jlumartinez wrote:I am sorry fo getting you mad. It wasn´t my intention. But you have shown a hidden side without big cause (only read again my previous post to see my subject) . I am glad you internally feel proud of being american, this is the big thing of your country, your identity maked up in just nothing more than 150 years. Not all you have said is true: some maybe yes, some completely not. I am well-mannered and I will reject to answer. This is a technical forum and I will keep my ideas to be shared in others places. I only will say one: "Fanaticism is the root cause of all bad". This is why I always try to have more and more friends everywhere.
Europeans have a lot to be proud of. They gave us Western Civilization and sent their best people to America.
My grand parents came here around the turn of the previous century to avoid the pogroms in Russia. So we missed the troubles '33 to '45. Thank the Maker.
Tom Wolfe said: “The dark night of fascism is always descending in the United States and yet lands only in Europe."
Jean-François Revel: “Strangely, it is always America that is described as degenerate and ‘fascist,’ while it is solely in Europe that actual dictatorships and totalitarian regimes spring up.”
Yeah. I'm an old fashioned nationalist. Seems like a good idea to me. I was a Trot in my youth so I can say I have studied the question from all sides.
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jlumartinez
- Posts: 143
- Joined: Thu Jun 28, 2007 7:29 pm
- Location: Spain
The oldest democracy on the planet is established in Iceland ( since the 10th century). I don´t want to put more wood into the fire. With this short post I stop replying in this thread. I am here to talk about Polywell. I only want to see Polywell working as a champ. If Polywell works it will be the greatest thing done in America ever: an abundant and cheap source of energy. The rest is secondary
I'm down with that.jlumartinez wrote:The oldest democracy on the planet is established in Iceland ( since the 10th century). I don´t want to put more wood into the fire. With this short post I stop replying in this thread. I am here to talk about Polywell. I only want to see Polywell working as a champ. If Polywell works it will be the greatest thing done in America ever: an abundant and cheap source of energy. The rest is secondary
Actually I'd love to see more work being done on the project all over the planet. It is one of the reasons I am doing an open source design. There is so much to learn.
I too would also like to see more work done in other countries, part of me had hoped we might see people from many other countries here all lending a hand towards each other and a helping hand given to world peace without having to go through the politicans to sort it out for us.
Whatever the reasons we are not seeing those people here, we have to work with the best we have, and as much as true, the US is in the best position to help kick that off.
Let us not be too angry about that, but instead at least try and work together as friends, even if sometimes are friends are less than perfect, remember we ourselves have our own issues and problems.
To be frank, if the rest of us had got our act together earlier, we wouldn't need bailing out by the US so often, so I tend to see its half of one and half of the others fault either way you look at it.
As we begin to enter yet another part of the industrial revolution, we really do need to get on better with each other, and stop wasting so much effort on conflicts, fusion at least as far as I see it, will help to quieten down the oil fires and in time see us squabbling a little less over the stuff.
Whatever the reasons we are not seeing those people here, we have to work with the best we have, and as much as true, the US is in the best position to help kick that off.
Let us not be too angry about that, but instead at least try and work together as friends, even if sometimes are friends are less than perfect, remember we ourselves have our own issues and problems.
To be frank, if the rest of us had got our act together earlier, we wouldn't need bailing out by the US so often, so I tend to see its half of one and half of the others fault either way you look at it.
As we begin to enter yet another part of the industrial revolution, we really do need to get on better with each other, and stop wasting so much effort on conflicts, fusion at least as far as I see it, will help to quieten down the oil fires and in time see us squabbling a little less over the stuff.
I feel bad reading that you won't add more to this discussion. I live in the US and I am here only because the design is being done open source. Ever since the smart scientists at CERN invented HTTP, the world is now so connected that these things must be done everywhere at once.jlumartinez wrote:The oldest democracy on the planet is established in Iceland ( since the 10th century). I don´t want to put more wood into the fire. With this short post I stop replying in this thread.
I agree! There is no country in the world not stained with blood and oil. Let's change the whole world at once! As an engineer, I understand the possibility the polywell could be impossible -- but as part of humanity, I believe now is the time to make it work, because it is too promising to not give it all we've got.jlumartinez wrote:I am here to talk about Polywell. I only want to see Polywell working as a champ. If Polywell works it will be the greatest thing done in America ever: an abundant and cheap source of energy. The rest is secondary
We'll see an international collaboration in the future, no doubt Nanos. Its just gonna take time. Things should heat up after WB7 lights up. Its only been 3 months since i first saw the google video, and it was almost by luck that i found it.
Sorry if this started some flames, in no way was i attacking America, it just seems that economists are giving the US economy a 1 in 3 chance of crashing. When you understand that the US economy survives on the fact people trade with US currency and that certain powers are intent on switching currency and the fact the US has been technically bankrupt for some time, I just cant help but see some storm clouds on the horizon.
All i was trying to say was that WB7,8,9,10,11,12,13...... will be proudly All American but which WBX is going to NET POWER ? Thats the million dollar question...... WB21 perhaps ? and is this WBX going to be in America ?
Sorry if this started some flames, in no way was i attacking America, it just seems that economists are giving the US economy a 1 in 3 chance of crashing. When you understand that the US economy survives on the fact people trade with US currency and that certain powers are intent on switching currency and the fact the US has been technically bankrupt for some time, I just cant help but see some storm clouds on the horizon.
All i was trying to say was that WB7,8,9,10,11,12,13...... will be proudly All American but which WBX is going to NET POWER ? Thats the million dollar question...... WB21 perhaps ? and is this WBX going to be in America ?
Purity is Power
I too see the storm clouds, in my own country as well. (Hense my interest in studying Technocracy, understanding economics and looking for better ways of doing things, though Iran is already halfway between the two it seems by simply having less debt than the rest of us.)
Like previous technologies, either other countries will wait until the development is over and then copy the plans, or if it looks promising, then start their own versions.
One of the reasons I want to build my own bunker town... I mean eco-friendly earth sheltered dwelling community
just to be on the cautious side, plus they make excellent cheap homes!
Would be nice to have them fusion powered at some point, save digging them deep geothermal wells. (We have one in the UK, but one university educated green was telling me they would never work commerically in the UK..)
Like previous technologies, either other countries will wait until the development is over and then copy the plans, or if it looks promising, then start their own versions.
One of the reasons I want to build my own bunker town... I mean eco-friendly earth sheltered dwelling community
just to be on the cautious side, plus they make excellent cheap homes!Would be nice to have them fusion powered at some point, save digging them deep geothermal wells. (We have one in the UK, but one university educated green was telling me they would never work commerically in the UK..)