Backstabbing at the ONR

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scareduck
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Backstabbing at the ONR

Post by scareduck »

One of the things I've been very curious about is the history of the relations between Todd Rider and Dr. Bussard, and the politics going on behind the scenes. Along the way to developing a larger Polywell bibliography than the one presently available at askmar.com, I found this interesting post from Tom Ligon:
You want to know why Dr. Bussard was embargoed by the Navy against publishing? The answer is a major pissing contest between the group funding him and somebody in the Office of Naval Research. You want to know who was funding Todd Rider as he pursued his Masters Thesis? Look at the Acknowledgements in his 1994 Masters' Thesis, which states, and I quote, "The author is partially owned and operated by a graduate fellowship from the Office of Naval Research."

Ask yourself how a recent EE grad, new to plasma physics, comes up with the idea to tackle an entire field of fusion physics? Does he do this entirely on his own, or does a sponsor suggest it, and provide some guidance? I'm not criticizing this practice ... I would guess this is the way most masters theses go ... you find a sponsor and work on something that interests them and that they will know how assist on and can judge.

Now realize that 1994 is the year Dr. Bussard gave some extremely damning testimony to Congress regarding the fusion research programs in the DOE, earning himself some highly motivated opponents, at least one of whom was causing trouble from ONR.

If you ask Dr. Bussard directly about what the thinks of Dr. Rider, he will very probably tell you EXACTLY what he thinks. I'm not going to repeat it here.

The polite version is that Rider selects his conditions to support his conclusions. And he doesn't listen when you try to explain how IEF machines actually work.

The embargo was, at least in part, to prevent Dr. Bussard from responding to Rider, due to the infighting going on within the Navy. I don't know the exact circumstances or motivations ... probably would make good political intrigue.

In fact, while he apparently does not like to refer to him by name, Dr. Bussard has basically addressed all of Rider's objections. He has not ignored them. He tries to point out the way he believes the machines operate. I was witness, in fact, in 1995-96, to Dr. Bussard thinking Rider had actually found a fatal flaw in the idea. He dissappeared in the office for a couple of days of furious analysis and calculation, and emerged about the most jubilant I'd ever seen him. He'd discovered that not only was Rider wrong, but the machine itself had held the built-in cure all along, and would work better than the original model had predicted. I believe that was the edge thermalization process that "anneals" out any tendency the device has to Maxwellianize.

Frankly, I wish Dr. Bussard and Dr. Krall would take off the gloves and rebut the critics for all they're worth. Maybe, if they can get enough funding to hire somebody who can do better graphics for their papers, you'll even take them seriously.

If it is impossible to fuse aneutronic fuels, why are they listed in the NRL Plasma Formulary? I certainly hope, and strongly suspect, that is wrong. But I know darned well the IEF approach can burn deuterium, or DT. That, alone, is reason to do the next stage of research, WB7 and WB8.

Believe Dr. Rider for any reason you wish, if you wish to. Analyze his math and assumptions about operating conditions, or judge the graphics in his papers.

I'll know which side is right when I see the test results. But we will all be poorer if the tests are never done because Rider has better graphics in his papers.
Rider's thesis advisor was Lawrence Lidsky, who himself was plenty down on fusion of all kinds, not just Polywell; he wrote a very pessimistic paper, "The Trouble With Fusion", published in 1983, over a decade before Bussard's testimony. I have no doubt but that it colored his subsequent views on fusion, and possibly Rider's as well, something I wrote about late last year. Ligon's assumption that Lidsky was simply out for territorial revenge therefore seems odd; Lidsky himself had stuck a far bigger knife into tokamak fusion years earlier. (The former MIT professor had been part of that school's Plasma Fusion Center labs for many years.)

Ligon is also slightly wrong in the source of his quote (the "owned and operated" quip actually comes from Rider's 1995 Physics of Plasma paper), but as the two seem to be contemporaneous, it's largely immaterial.

We still don't know the whole story behind the scenes, and it would be useful to know what role, if any, L.L. Wood played in this fracas. Recognizing that unearthing this bit of trivia may be generating more heat than light, I exit the floor.

Keegan
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Post by Keegan »

Another great find Rob.

It seems the back story behind the polywell is just as interesting as the science.

While i have long suspected Rider might have been a puppet of hidden powers, seemingly how just a few of his papers so efficiently destroyed the reputation of non maxwellian plasma fusion.

The Lidsky Bio was interesting. It seems he had an established career in fusion before he chose to discredit it. He was appointed associate director of the Plasma Fusion Center in 1978. While he wrote "The Trouble with Fusion" in 1983

I found this in "RACHEL'S HAZARDOUS WASTE NEWS #368" - December 16, 1993
In 1983, Lawrence Lidsky, a professor of nuclear engineering at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), associate director of MIT's Plasma Fusion Center, and editor of the journal, FUSION ENERGY, added to the world's knowledge of potential problems with fusion energy in a candid critique of the technology. [5]

Lidsky compared the accident potential of today's existing nuclear fission reactors to fusion reactors. Fusion reactors could not melt down the way today's fission reactors can. And the radioactive waste from a fusion machine would be much less (perhaps 0.03 percent as much waste from a fusion reactor as from a fission reactor, Lidsky believes).

However, Lidsky pointed out, "Current analyses show that the probability of a minor mishap is relatively high in both fission and fusion plants. But the probability of small accidents is expected to be higher in fusion reactors. There are two reasons for this. First, fusion reactors will be much more complex devices than fission reactors. In addition to heat-transfer and control systems, they will utilize magnetic fields, high power heating systems, complex vacuum systems, and other mechanisms that have no counterpart in fission reactors. Furthermore, they will be subject to higher stresses than fission machines because of the greater neutron damage and higher temperature gradients [differences]. Minor failures seem certain to occur more frequently," Lidsky said.

Lidsky then pointed out that there would be too much radioactivity inside a fusion reactor to allow maintenance workers inside the machine. When things break, repairs will not be possible by normal procedures. This alone will make fusion plants unattractive to electric utilities, Lidsky points out. Lidsky says no one was hurt at Three Mile Island, yet the accident was a financial disaster for the owner of the plant and ultimately for the nuclear power industry. An accident at a fusion plant could have similar consequences, he says.

Lidsky pointed out that a fusion reactor would have to be physically larger than a fission reactor to create an equivalent amount of electricity, perhaps 10 times larger. Such huge machines would be enormously expensive to build, and utilities have already turned their backs on huge machines. From the viewpoint of generating reliable power, it makes more sense for a utility to invest in several smaller machines, rather than putting all their eggs in one large, unreliable basket, Lidsky says. "All in all, the proposed fusion reactor would be a large, complex, unreliable way of turning water into steam," Lidsky concludes.

As if to drive a final nail into the coffin of fusion, Lidsky pointed out that, "One of the best ways to produce material for atomic weapons would be to put common uranium or thorium in the blanket of a D-T [deuterium-tritium fusion] reactor, where the fusion neutrons would soon transform it to weapons-grade material. And tritium, an unavoidable product of the reactor, is used in some hydrogen bombs. In the early years, research on D-T fusion was classified precisely because it would provide a ready source of material for weapons. Such a reactor would only abet the proliferation of nuclear weapons and could hardly be considered a wise power source to export to unstable governments."

Id really have to agree with everything he said. Im glad the polywell solves some of those problems. He seems like a smart man who instead of preaching why its going to work, decided to ask the tough questions about why it wont work. Which is pretty much what im doing.


I just found "The Trouble with Fusion" on askmar. Sadly the PDF doesnt seem to be working but it looks like google cached it..... nice one G.

So heres "The Trouble with Fusion" (1983)

i also found another PDF on Lidsky's and his critiques which is a good read.

enjoy !

-k
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MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

The size of the machine is going to be most dependent on the arc breakdown voltage of the gas in the space where we do the power collection.

i.e. what is the shortest distance that will support 2 million volts?

1,000 V/mm = 2 m. Add in a 2 m radius reaction space and you are up to 8 m diameter. About 26 ft across - for 100 MW.

Get the arc breakdown up to 2,000 V/mm and you have 3 m radius (20 ft.) across.

A 1000 MW reactor needs 3 m of reaction space and 2 m energy conversion. That is 10 m across - about 33 ft.
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scareduck
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Post by scareduck »

Thanks for the links, Keegan. Ligon's assumption just doesn't make sense; in fact, Bussard used Lidsky's "The Trouble With Fusion" as a basis for his congressional testimony. That is, Bussard and Lidsky were on the same side.

MSimon
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Post by MSimon »

scareduck wrote:Thanks for the links, Keegan. Ligon's assumption just doesn't make sense; in fact, Bussard used Lidsky's "The Trouble With Fusion" as a basis for his congressional testimony. That is, Bussard and Lidsky were on the same side.
Which assumption?
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scareduck
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Post by scareduck »

MSimon wrote:
scareduck wrote:Thanks for the links, Keegan. Ligon's assumption just doesn't make sense; in fact, Bussard used Lidsky's "The Trouble With Fusion" as a basis for his congressional testimony. That is, Bussard and Lidsky were on the same side.
Which assumption?
Ligon's assumption that Rider was spoon-fed overly simplistic models that had no chance of working, for the political reason of revenge. That Rider and Lidsky may have had cheerleaders in other parts of the ONR or the broader fusion and plasma physics communities is undoubted, but it's hard to understand what their role in Rider's subsequent papers might have been. Rider's "owned and operated" quip strikes me as a PhD candidate inserting a bit of levity in the forward to an otherwise very dry and technical paper, not a statement of fact.

If anything, it would seem more logical to suppose that Lidsky had become so worn out from his battles with the mainstream tokamak fusion people that he was inclined to pessimism about fusion of all kinds, and that no proposed terrestrial controlled fusion device would either be attainable or commercially feasible.

Roger
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Post by Roger »

scareduck, I specifically remember Tom Ligon asking me to read Riders intro at another time and place. So I wont worry about that attribution.
I like the p-B11 resonance peak at 50 KV acceleration. In2 years we'll know.

cuddihy
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Post by cuddihy »

scareduck wrote:
MSimon wrote:
scareduck wrote:Thanks for the links, Keegan. Ligon's assumption just doesn't make sense; in fact, Bussard used Lidsky's "The Trouble With Fusion" as a basis for his congressional testimony. That is, Bussard and Lidsky were on the same side.
Which assumption?
Ligon's assumption that Rider was spoon-fed overly simplistic models that had no chance of working, for the political reason of revenge. That Rider and Lidsky may have had cheerleaders in other parts of the ONR or the broader fusion and plasma physics communities is undoubted, but it's hard to understand what their role in Rider's subsequent papers might have been. Rider's "owned and operated" quip strikes me as a PhD candidate inserting a bit of levity in the forward to an otherwise very dry and technical paper, not a statement of fact.
That sounds about right to me. It's entirely possible for Rider to have made the assumptions he did in good faith.

But... anyone who has done a detailed science thesis or dissertation knows that there come points where you find out some of your opening assumptions or methods are just plain wrong or poorly chosen. There's two paths you can take at that point, depending on how big the impact: 1. you can admit the problem, and essentially, have to start over, although wiser and smarter, having done the "whole thing" already. Of course at this time you might be coming near the end of your funding money, which sucks. 2. you can gloss over the problem, knowing that the rest of your work is sufficiently rigorous to meet the "doctoral" standard, that your reviewers might be predisposed to accept your conclusions as is, and they have not been as in-depth as you have to this whole silly aneutronic fusion business.

It's within the realm of possibility that Rider got to the above place and chose path #2, but also had the wisdom to leave the field afterward...
Tom.Cuddihy

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Faith is the foundation of reason.

scareduck
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Post by scareduck »

cuddihy wrote:It's within the realm of possibility that Rider got to the above place and chose path #2, but also had the wisdom to leave the field afterward...
Mostly. He gave a talk in August, 2005 called "Is There a Better Route to Fusion?" , so he's not entirely history.

Keegan
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Post by Keegan »

^That paper should be instead called

"Dammit im telling you fusion cant possibly work, oh yeah and that electrostatic one too"

^ Another great find Rob !

Recommended reading, it did a great job of summing up some of his objections stated in his earlier papers. I have read all of them but they were too technical and dry for me to get much out of.

The PDF simplifies and re literates electron loss mechanisms, Bremsstrahlung radiation losses, with p+B11 is listed as 1.74 x fusion power and energy required to maintain reactions not in local thermal equilibrium.

These all pose a threat to the polywells success and will only be resolved experimentally, but the PDF still stinks.

It only has one tiny picture of an Electrostatic grid system. Interesting it mentions a "high voltage grid or polyhedral magnetic cusp in which he is obviously referring to the polywell. He just tells you that it cant work and gives the same amount of time and space to some crazy schemes such as beam and solid target and fusion through black hole compression. Nice :oops:
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TallDave
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Post by TallDave »

I like the Rider article, good mix of equations and fun.

Oddly, he says the electron losses in IEC are prohibitive. Apparently, he either is ignorant of or disbelieves Bussard 1e5 electron transit results, and amusingly he cites his own paper in that little box.

The ion upscattering is still a bit of an open question, but we should know more soon, and POPS may solve that.

TallDave
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Post by TallDave »

Oh, duh -- that article is from 2005. Bussard hadn't released his results yet then, which also means he probably isn't referring to Polywell specifically.

scareduck
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Post by scareduck »

TallDave wrote:Oddly, he says the electron losses in IEC are prohibitive.
And the ion upscattering losses are "prohibitive".
Apparently, he either is ignorant of or disbelieves Bussard 1e5 electron transit results, and amusingly he cites his own paper in that little box.
Why not? If he thinks he's right, at least he shows his work in detail.
The ion upscattering is still a bit of an open question, but we should know more soon, and POPS may solve that.
The relative distance of "soon" to be tested some. It sounds to me like the end of April will be somewhat optimistic.

Keegan
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Post by Keegan »

TallDave wrote:Oh, duh -- that article is from 2005. Bussard hadn't released his results yet then, which also means he probably isn't referring to Polywell specifically.
Rider released his original papers critiquing the non Maxwellian approach in 1992. That gave him 13 years to corespond/fight with Dr. Bussard before giving the presentation in question in 2005.

Its a sure thing he would have known about the polwell, admittedly not all the juicy details we know now, but its as if the presentation is showing every possible method of fusion besides polywell.

Funny how the PDF describes all the weak points of electrostatic non Maxwellian anuetronic fusion systems (polywell) but actually fails to tell you what system you might find them in.......
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scareduck
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Post by scareduck »

Keegan wrote:Rider released his original papers critiquing the non Maxwellian approach in 1992.
Actually, his PhD thesis is copyright 1995, which I assume means it took at least a couple years to develop. I'll give you 1992, but only as a hypothetical starting point.
Its a sure thing he would have known about the polwell, admittedly not all the juicy details we know now, but its as if the presentation is showing every possible method of fusion besides polywell.
Absolutely true. Rider specifically cited conversations with Bussard (among others) as helpful in developing Fundamental Limitations.
Funny how the PDF describes all the weak points of electrostatic non Maxwellian anuetronic fusion systems (polywell) but actually fails to tell you what system you might find them in.......
That's because Rider believed he had systematically dismantled the possibility of Q>1 for IEC fusion devices in Fundamental Limitations. Part of the point of his talk was to eliminate areas that couldn't work (in his opinion) and find areas that could, something he actually spent some time doing in his PhD thesis.

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